Champions League Debut & A Lesson in Resilience: Today BrownBagBets Picks!!!

Welcome to a new day at BrownBagBets, where our journey is as important as our destination. Yesterday, we celebrated a triumphant 117% ROI, a significant rebound from the previous day’s 12% bankroll dip. This ebb and flow are part of the game, and it’s here where our philosophy of bankroll management shines. Remember, even the most seasoned professional gamblers, those who make a living from this, aim for a 55% win rate. They don’t win every game; they win 55 out of 100. That’s the benchmark of success in this arena.

Our approach at BrownBagBets is built on steadiness and perseverance. We don’t panic on down days; instead, we analyze, learn, and adapt. Take our recent NFL props, for instance. Instead of completely withdrawing or doubling down in the face of a rough patch, we adjusted our strategy. We maintained the number of bets but reduced the percentage of our bankroll committed to them. This careful calibration is our secret sauce – recognizing challenges, refining our strategies, and testing adjustments with minimized risk.

For a deeper understanding of our ethos and methodology, I encourage you to read our manifesto. It’s a testament to our commitment to smart, sustainable betting. Today, as we venture into Champions League soccer and other sports, let’s remember: BrownBagBets is about the journey, the learning, and the unwavering spirit to keep moving forward, one calculated bet at a time.

Champions League

Bayern Munich @ Manchester United

Pick: Bayern Munich ML @ +130 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

At BrownBagBets, we’re known for our collective expertise across various sports. But when it comes to soccer, especially the Champions League, we often find ourselves waiting with bated breath for our resident ‘soccer savant’ board member to grace us with his wisdom. Alas, today is not that day. Despite our constant nudging, he’s been as elusive as a striker in offside territory. So, here we are, charting our own course through the Champions League waters, and you can bet if we nail this pick, he’ll be the first to claim the credit!

Onto the game at hand: Bayern Munich vs. Manchester United. Bayern, already group leaders, have a history of playing spoiler in these ‘nothing-to-play-for’ matches. Remember last season’s 2-0 win over Inter, or the 3-0 thrashing of Barcelona in 2021? They’ve consistently shown that even when the stakes are low for them, their performance remains high. In their previous encounter with Manchester United, Bayern emerged victorious in a 4-3 thriller, outperforming United in expected goals, particularly in the crucial final moments. Manchester United, under Erik Ten Hag, is still finding its feet with a fluid build-up system that’s yet to fully click, especially given their injury woes. They often resort to long balls, leading to a game of transitions – a risky strategy against a team like Bayern. With United needing a win to advance, their aggressive pressing could leave them vulnerable to Bayern’s clinical play. So, even without our soccer guru’s input, we’re leaning towards Bayern showing their class once again in this high-stakes clash.

NCAAM Plays

Hofstra @ Duke

Pick: Hofstra +15.5 / Wager: 4%

In tonight’s college basketball showdown, we’re eyeing a significant value play with Hofstra +15.5 at Duke, warranting a 4% bankroll wager. Our advanced projections, which meticulously compare our lines with the market’s, have identified this matchup as having an A+ prediction strength. Despite both teams boasting a 6-3 record, the market heavily favors Duke as a 15.5-point home favorite. However, our analysis suggests this spread is overly generous. We see the fair line closer to Duke -7.5, indicating Hofstra is undervalued as substantial road underdogs. Duke, coming off a morale-boosting win against Charlotte and looking ahead to a high-profile clash with Baylor at Madison Square Garden, might not be fully focused on this game. Hofstra, on the other hand, is poised for a bounce-back performance, especially if they improve their three-point shooting from their last outing. While a straight win for Hofstra might seem ambitious, we believe they have what it takes to keep the game competitive and cover the spread. So, we’re confidently backing Hofstra +15.5, and we’re also keeping an eye on the first-half odds for additional value.

Georgia Southern @ Tennessee

Pick: Under 145.5 / Wager: 3%

A key factor in this decision is the teams’ performance in second-chance points. Georgia Southern struggles both offensively and defensively in offensive rebounding, ranking 220th and 351st respectively. Tennessee, while better, is not dominant in this area, ranking 194th offensively and 68th defensively. This suggests that the game won’t see an abundance of second-chance scoring opportunities. Additionally, Tennessee’s methodical style of play, ranking 83rd in Adjusted Tempo and averaging 18.2 seconds per defensive possession, will likely slow down the game’s pace. The Volunteers’ formidable defense, which limits opponents to a 45.2% field goal percentage inside the perimeter and ranks 17th in points per possession at the rim, will be facing a Georgia Southern team that is notably weak in scoring at the rim, ranking 356th nationally. These factors combined make a strong case for betting the under in this matchup.

Coppin State @ Georgetown

Pick: Under 139.5 / Wager: 3%

Coppin State struggles to do the most important thing in basketball, score the ball. They average just 56 ppg. They obviously sit at the bottom in most categories that matter like shooting accuracy, 3 pt accuracy, and have only on player averaging double digit ppg. Georgetown doesn’t score either. This is an under play if we’ve ever seen one!

Oral Roberts @ Texas Tech

Pick: Under 144.5 / Wager: 3%

This is a pure projections play for us. The average of the pay sites we pay for so that you don’t have to has this game at an average of 138. We see great value in this one as our projection approach does tend to win quite often.

Cal Baptist @ Oregon

Pick: Oregon -12.5 / Wager: 2%

We’ve got projections here too of a 15+ point win for Oregon. They cover this 12.5 over 70% of the time from our view, great value in this one. We go 2% simply because we worry about the back door cover based on some of the simulations.

NHL Plays

Maple Leafs @ Rangers

Pick: Rangers ML / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Maple Leafs on a back to back against the Islanders which went to OT and they lost. Great value in the Rangers tonight at home.

Hurricanes @ Senators

Pick: Over 6.5 Goals / Wager 2%

Pick: Senators ML @ +115 / Wager: 1%

The Hurricanes have gone over in their 4 of their last 6; the Senators have gone over in their last 9 games in a row against East opponents. Love this play tonight. Also, going underdog ML in hockey to test something out. More to come on this if it starts to be valuable.

Panthers @ Kraken

Pick: Kraken ML @ +142 / Wager: 1%

Same as previous statement regarding taking some reps with the hockey underdogs at home.