No Time to Rest: Back at it for Monday Night Football and More!!!

Monday Night Football

Packers @ Giants

Pick: Giants +6.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jaylin Hyatt over 25.5 yards receiving / Wager: 2%

Pick: Wan Dale Robinson anytime TD @ +480 / Wager: 1%

Titans @ Dolphins

Pick: Dolphins -13.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Devon Achane over 79.5 yards rushing + receiving / Wager: 2%

Pick: Tyjae Spears over 20.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Tyreke Hill over 149.5 Yards Receiving @ +220 / Wager: 2%

NCAAM Basketball

Northern Colorado @ Texas A&M Commerce

Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 / Wager: 5%

We are blessed with a single early game today. At BrownBagBets, a day of small NCAA basketball plays combined with one single early play, we love because it gives us an opportunity to hit an early bigger play, realizing that if we lose we can easily make it up by end of day. And if it hits, we can adjust accordingly in a great way for the layer plays. So today we go with the Texas A&M affiliate +2.5 at home with a 5% amount. This doesn’t make it a play of the day, it’s simply an early play with strong confidence, that will help us strategically with our management of bankroll today. Here’s why this pick stands out as a strong choice:

Previous Encounter and Home Advantage: The Lions are set to face the Golden Bears again, following last year’s close game where Northern Colorado clinched an 80-77 victory. These unusual early weekday game times often swing in favor of the home team, which in this case, works to Commerce’s advantage.

Impressive Win on Record: Texas A&M - Commerce isn’t a team to underestimate, as evidenced by their commendable win over Saint Joseph’s. This victory adds a layer of credibility to their capabilities and resilience.

Unique Game Timing and Focus: The odd early start time for this game could play into Commerce’s hands. It’s a standalone game, and we always aim to have a well-informed opinion on such unique matchups. These are the occasions where hidden opportunities often lie.

Emerging Talent: The Lions boast a rising star in Jerome Brewer, a 6-9 sophomore forward averaging 13 points per game. His presence on the court is a significant factor, especially as the team is eager to bounce back from a less-than-stellar performance against SMU.

Yale @ Quinnipiac

Pick: Quinnipiac +8.5 / Wager: 4%

We have a strong confidence level with Quinnipiac at home with a generous 8-point spread, dedicating 4% of our bankroll to this decision. Here's why Quinnipiac stands out as a solid pick:

Projection Analysis: Our projections, along with multiple other sources, suggest a much tighter contest than the current spread indicates. This discrepancy between projections and the spread presents a valuable opportunity.

Yale's Inconsistent Performance: While Yale has had a strong start to the season, their performance has been marred by some unexpected losses. This inconsistency raises questions about their ability to cover a large spread, especially in an away game.

KenPom's Assessment: Even KenPom, a trusted name in college basketball analytics, forecasts this game as a 6-point contest. This closer margin further bolsters our confidence in Quinnipiac's ability to cover the spread.

Quinnipiac's Home Court Advantage: Quinnipiac has been formidable at home, boasting an impressive 5-0 record. Their overall 7-2 record is a testament to their solid gameplay this season.

Impressive Shooting Percentage: Quinnipiac's shooting efficiency at home is noteworthy, with a 47% success rate from the field. This level of offensive execution can be a critical factor in keeping the game close and covering the spread.

Value in the Spread: Getting over 8 points with Quinnipiac, considering their home performance and Yale's inconsistencies, offers significant value. It's a bet that aligns well with our strategic approach and analysis.

Stonehill @ University of New Hampshire

Pick: University of New Hampshire -13.5 / Wager: 3%

Just because it’s not a massive slate of games doesn’t mean there can’t be significant value out there. We happen to have quite a few things flagging for us, and backing the University of New Hampshire with a 13.5-point spread at home against Stonehill, dedicating a portion of our bankroll to this play, is warranted. Here's the breakdown of why this is a solid bet:

Projection Consistency: Our analysis, supported by multiple projections, indicates a victory margin for UNH in the range of 15 to 17 points. This consistency across different sources adds weight to our decision.

Over on Total Points: The over/under line is set at 150.5, and our projections lean towards the over. Betting on a large point spread feels more secure when it aligns with an expectation of high total points, suggesting a game dominated by the favored team.

Stonehill's Struggles: Stonehill's season has been challenging, to say the least. Their 0-8 straight-up record and 1-7 against the spread performance paint a picture of a team struggling to find its footing. The average loss margin of over 27 points per game further highlights their difficulties.

UNH's Home Court Dominance: UNH has been formidable at home, boasting a perfect 4-0 straight-up record. Their average winning margin of over 29 points per game at home is a testament to their strength and ability to capitalize on home-court advantage.

Comparative Analysis: The stark contrast between UNH's strong home performance and Stonehill's overall struggles this season suggests that UNH is well-positioned to cover the spread. The data points to a game where UNH could comfortably dominate.

University of Delaware @ Robert Morris

Pick: University of Delaware -2.5 / Wager: 3%

For today's NCAA basketball game, we're placing our bet on the University of Delaware to cover a -2.5 point spread against Robert Morris, allocating 3% of our bankroll to this wager. Here's the rationale behind this choice:

Consistent Projection Data: Across all the projection sites we consult, there's a unanimous agreement that Delaware is likely to cover the spread. The average projection suggests a victory margin of 6-7 points for Delaware, which is significantly higher than the spread.

Favorable Total Points Outlook: The over/under for this game is set at a relatively low number, which we perceive as an advantage in our betting strategy. A lower total often indicates a tighter game, where a small spread can have a significant impact.

Utah Tech @ Cal State Northridge

Pick: Utah Tech +3.5 / Wager: 3%

This is one is far more simple then any others today - we love Utah Tech with the 3.5 points because our good friend at KenPom has this game being an outright win for Utah Tech. We never argue with the KenPom data in a case like this.

Alabama A&M @ Samford

Pick: Samford -18 / Wager: 3%

We have significant sharp money coming on our tracking system on Samford -18. Multiple sites we leverage for projections have Samford winning by upwards of 20 and in some cases almost 30 points. AAMU is bottom of the country in almost every offensive category. Samford happens to be within the top 10 in steals per game, which we see as genuinely really valuable for this play.

NHL

Maple Leafs @ Islanders

Pick: Islanders ML @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Over 6 @+100 / Wager: 2%

Our NHL expert loved this game at over 6.5 goals. The line opened at 5.5, and somehow we got it at over 6. So dare we say lock city? Never. We never say lock city. Unless it is a genuine guaranteed win (see post from NBA In Season Tourney Thingy where we locked in a win in the finals irrespective of the actual outcome). 2 plus money wagers in the same game is too good to be true and we think that it is another example of BrownBagBets unique approach to volume betting. Taking 2 equal plays within the same game, where both can win us back at a minimum the amount we wagered, means if you win 1 of the two you aren’t losing money. It’s smart and it’s the way we teach.

NBA

Cavs @ Magic

Pick: Magic -1.5 / Wager: 4%

Yes, the Cavs beat them very recently - but we doubt that they will shoot as poorly as they did again tonight. We love the Magic this year, made a ton of money on their backs already - and a -1.5 line feels like a steal to us!

Pacers @ Pistons

Pick: Pacers -5.5 / Wager: 3%

Fade the Pistons with all opportunities that show any type of value right now. We’ve got projections of the Pacers winning by well of 5 points, so we feel real good about this one.

Parlay Play!

Raptors @ Knicks

Mavericks @ Grizzlies

Pick: Knicks ML/Mavs ML @ +185 / Wager: 2%

Wizards @ Sixers

Pick: Sixers -13 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Joel Embiid over 34.5 points / Wager: 2%

Nets @ Nuggets

Pick: Over 236 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Mikal Bridges over 30.5 Points + Rebounds / Wager: 2%

Pick: D. Fox over 42.5 Rebounds + Points + Assists / Wager: 2%

Bulls @ Bucks

Pick: Coby White over 28.5 Point + Rebounds + Assists / Wager: 5%