End-of-Year Excellence: Elevating Your Bets with BrownBagBets

Welcome to December, a month brimming with promise and potential, where the spirit of BrownBagBets shines brighter than ever. As we turn the page to a new chapter, we're not just resetting our bankrolls; we're reigniting our commitment to a journey that's as thrilling as it is rewarding. At BrownBagBets, we're more than just a betting service; we're a community united by a passion for strategic, intelligent wagering, where every bet is a step towards collective triumph. This month, as we recalibrate our strategies and set our sights on new victories, let's remember what makes us unique: our unwavering dedication to smart, responsible betting and our relentless pursuit of excellence. Together, let's embrace the challenges and opportunities December brings, fortified by the lessons of the past and excited for the wins ahead. Here's to a month of strategic plays, insightful picks, and the shared joy of success. Let the games begin!

NCAA Friday Football

Game #1: New Mexico State @ #24 Liberty, 7 PM - CUSA Championship

Pick: New Mexico State +11.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

In the realm of college football, New Mexico State has emerged as an underdog powerhouse, consistently defying expectations. Jerry Kill's Aggies, riding an impressive streak of eight consecutive wins and ten straight covers, still seem to be battling for the respect they deserve. Their upcoming clash against Liberty, a team they previously lost to 33-17, presents another opportunity to showcase their growth and resilience.

Despite Liberty's undefeated season, their journey hasn't been without close calls, and their record against the spread in recent games reveals some vulnerabilities. New Mexico State, on the other hand, has been a revelation under Diego Pavia's quarterbacking, showcasing a remarkable ability to outperform expectations, especially as underdogs.

This matchup isn't just a game; it's a testament to New Mexico State's tenacity and improvement. Their recent history of triumphs as underdogs, including a stunning victory over Auburn, speaks volumes. As they prepare to face Liberty once again, they do so not as the team they were earlier in the season, but as a battle-hardened, confident squad ready to challenge the odds. Jerry Kill's leadership has transformed this team into a formidable force, one that's well-equipped to cover the spread and perhaps even pull off another surprise.

NCAA Friday Basketball

As we pivot to NCAA Basketball for today's slate, we're excited to continue leveraging our recently updated and highly effective betting algorithm. In our commitment to providing the best value for our community, we're focusing on over/under plays, harnessing the power of our refined approach. This shift means a slight change in how we present our picks: instead of the usual detailed game-by-game analysis, we'll be sharing our projections directly. These projections are the culmination of our proprietary collaborative review, incorporating insights from multiple subscription service sites. We invest in these resources so that you, our valued subscriber, can enjoy the benefits without the added cost. Trust in our process as we bring you today's top NCAA Basketball picks, each carefully selected to maximize your betting success.

Game #1: St. Thomas (MN) @ Western Michigan, 5 PM

Pick: Over 133.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll / Projection: 141 total points

Game #2: St. Peter’s @ Niagara, 7 PM

Pick: Over 123.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll / Projection: 132 total points

Pick: Niagara ML / Wager: 3% Bankroll

We have some detail for this ML play. We like Niagara here because of the models as well but for the reason of the fact that so many have Niagara winning this game by 7-8-9 points. We see really good in

Game #3: UConn @ Kansas, 9 PM

Pick: Under 148.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll / Projection: 142 total points

Game #4: Boise State @ St. Mary’s, 10:30 PM

Pick: Boise State +4.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

There are two camps right now when it comes to the Gaels of Saint Mary's. One that believes that are as potentially strong as they usually are, and another that believes they are currently experiencing a transitional phase. We, at BrownBagBets have come to believe the latter. And it seems the oddsmakers and the betting public are still adjusting to this new reality. This season's team has already faced more challenges than last year's squad, which made a notable run in the NCAA Tournament. According to WCC scouts, this isn't the same Saint Mary's team we've seen in recent years. A key difference is the absence of guard Logan Johnson, who brought a unique blend of athleticism and energy that significantly impacted the team's performance on both ends of the court. His departure to the NBA G-League has left a noticeable void in the team's dynamics. Without a player of Johnson's caliber, the Gaels are navigating a different landscape this season. This context provides a compelling reason to back Boise State with a +4.5 spread, as they face a Saint Mary's team still finding its footing.

Game #5: Maryland @ Indiana

Pick: Indiana ML / Wager: 2% Bankroll

For tonight's matchup featuring Indiana against Maryland, we're leaning towards Indiana with a -3 spread. The line movement, which opened at -1.5 and has since shifted, is a key indicator of the betting market's sentiment. This shift suggests a growing confidence in Indiana's ability to secure a win.

Our projections are particularly bullish on Indiana, predicting a victory margin of around 9 points. This substantial difference between our projection and the current line adds to our confidence in this pick. However, given the existing uncertainties surrounding both teams, we're opting for a more cautious approach by taking the moneyline. This decision aligns with our strategy of balancing risk while maximizing potential returns.

Indiana's notable height advantage as the 5th tallest team in the nation is a significant factor in this matchup. Their impressive 60% shooting from inside the three-point range could be a decisive element, especially considering that 58% of the points Maryland has allowed this season have come from within the arc. This statistic aligns well with Indiana's strengths and could be key in exploiting Maryland's defensive vulnerabilities.

In summary, while there is some uncertainty, the combination of line movement, our projections, and the matchup dynamics make Indiana a solid pick for tonight's game. As always, we remind our community to bet wisely and within their means, as we navigate the exciting and dynamic world of college basketball.

NBA Friday Plays

Game #1: Wizards @ Magic, 7 PM

Pick: Magic -11 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Pick: Paolo Banchero over 21.5 Points / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Pick: Cole Anthony over 16.5 Points / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Pick: Jalen Suggs over 14.5 Points / Wager: 3% Bankroll

The Orlando Magic are navigating through some roster challenges with key players like Markelle Fultz (knee) and Wendell Carter Jr. (finger) sidelined. This situation has opened up more opportunities for Cole Anthony, who has stepped up admirably, scoring 20 or more points in three of his last four outings. His scoring prowess was only slightly dampened in a tough matchup against the Celtics, where he still managed 16 points. Coming off a strong 25-point performance against the Wizards, Anthony is well-positioned to exceed his scoring total in their upcoming rematch.

The recent Magic vs. Wizards game also saw Franz Wagner shine, scoring an impressive 31 points with remarkable shooting efficiency. While such high efficiency might be hard to maintain, Wagner has been consistently high-scoring, netting at least 27 points in three of his last four games. His season shooting percentage of 46.8% bodes well for another high-scoring game, especially against the Wizards, who have struggled defensively and play at a fast pace.

Cole Anthony's increased role due to the Magic's injury woes has been a significant factor in his recent scoring surge. His ability to step up in the absence of key players has been crucial for the Magic, and his recent form suggests he's likely to continue this trend.

Jalen Suggs has also been capitalizing on the extended minutes due to Fultz's absence. Averaging 14.4 points over the last nine games and shooting 48.9% from the field, Suggs has shown he can handle the increased responsibility. His recent performance against the Wizards, where he scored 22 points, indicates his potential to surpass his scoring total in the next matchup, considering the Wizards' defensive challenges and their fast-paced gameplay.

Game #2: Spurs @ Pelicans, 8 PM

Pick: Pelicans -13 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Pick: CJ McCollum over 22.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

The New Orleans Pelicans, favored by 13 points, are poised for a strong showing against the San Antonio Spurs, who are coming off a back-to-back schedule. This scenario often poses challenges for teams, and the Spurs are no exception, especially following a narrow two-point loss to the Hawks. Such close defeats can have a lingering impact, potentially affecting their performance in the subsequent game.

CJ McCollum, a key player for the Pelicans, stands out as a particularly strong bet for exceeding 22.5 points and assists. McCollum's track record this season has been impressive, surpassing this total in five out of his seven games. His performance against the Spurs, who are not known for their defensive prowess, offers an excellent opportunity for him to continue this trend. Furthermore, McCollum's performance last season, where he exceeded this points and assists total in 71% of his games (58 out of 82), reinforces the likelihood of him achieving this feat again.

The projections from trusted sources, which place the Pelicans margin at 16 and 19, further support the confidence in his ability to meet or exceed the 22.5 points and assists threshold. The Spurs' potential fatigue from the back-to-back games, coupled with their tendency to struggle after close losses, creates an advantageous situation for McCollum to thrive and play a pivotal role in the Pelicans' pursuit of a decisive victory.

2 TEAM PARLAY PLAY

Raptors ML / Nuggets ML @ +178 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

In tonight's NBA action, we're eyeing a two-team parlay that combines favorites on the moneyline for a promising +179 odds. This strategic selection not only scales back the bankroll requirement but also offers a solid return on investment for our community.

Starting with the Raptors, they stand as a strong -2.5 favorite against the Knicks. New York is coming off a surprisingly tough game against the Pistons, where key players like Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson were heavily utilized, playing 38 and 40 minutes respectively. Randle's status is particularly noteworthy, as he's been downgraded to questionable for tonight's game. In the NBA, such a downgrade close to game time often signals an absence, which could tilt the scales further in favor of the Raptors. The line has adjusted slightly, reflecting this uncertainty, but the Raptors' position remains strong, especially considering the Knicks' exhaustive effort in their last outing.

Moving to the Suns vs. Nuggets matchup, the absence of star power could be a defining factor. Devin Booker's likely absence due to an ankle injury is a significant blow to the Suns.

Game #5: Sixers @ Celtics

Pick: Embiid over 5.5 Assists / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Joel is averaging 6.6 assists per game. That is all.

NHL FRIDAY PLAYS

Game #1: Sharks @ Devils, 7 PM

Pick: Devils -1.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

In tonight's NHL matchup, we're eyeing the New Jersey Devils at -1.5 against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks' road performance this season paints a clear picture: they've lost all 10 of their away games, and in each of those, the opposing team has covered the -1.5 puckline. This trend, coupled with an average defeat margin of 3.6 goals on the road, signals a significant struggle for San Jose when playing away from home.

The New Jersey Devils, on the other hand, are entering this game with strong momentum. They've secured three consecutive wins, amassing an impressive total of 16 goals during this winning streak. Their offensive prowess, particularly in recent games, suggests they're in prime form to extend their success.

Game #2: Senators @ Blue Jackets, 7 PM

Pick: Ottawa ML / Wager: 2% Bankroll

This one is because there are only 2 NHL games, and we have been so bad that we just want to play both. So we took the favorite here. Any other analysis would likely be speculative in the sense that our usual approach for making picks would say to take the Blue Jackets, so we fade ourselves.