Friday’s Success Fuels Today’s NCAA Football Championship Excitement

Yesterday marked another winning night for BrownBagBets, with our new NCAA over/under algorithm proving its worth yet again. In NCAA basketball, we achieved a solid 9-5 record, maintaining our strong momentum in the NBA as well. While NHL continues to be our challenging puzzle, our community knows well that we’re committed to cracking it. We’re confident in our approach and determined to turn this around. Stay tuned as we navigate today’s exciting NCAA Football Championships and more!

NCAAF Plays

MAC Championship

Miami (OH) @ Toledo, 12 PM

Pick: Miami (OH) +7.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Miami (OH) +7.5 is a compelling pick for the MAC Championship game at Ford Field, a neutral site that levels the playing field. Toledo, aiming for its second consecutive title, faces a determined Miami (OH) team seeking its first MAC championship since 2019. Their previous encounter was a close affair, with Toledo edging out a 21-17 victory. However, Miami (OH)’s strengths lie in areas that often tip the scales in tight contests. Their disciplined play, characterized by minimal turnovers and penalties, combined with a top-tier special teams unit, gives them a significant edge. Their kicker, Graham Nicholson, has been flawless, adding a reliable scoring option. Conversely, Toledo’s less disciplined approach and weaker special teams could be their Achilles’ heel, particularly in a championship game where every play counts. Miami (OH)’s robust defense and strategic advantages in key game aspects make them a strong contender to cover the spread, if not win outright. This aligns with the historical trend of MAC underdogs outperforming in championship games, (12-5-1) further bolstering confidence in Miami (OH) +7.5.

BIG 12 Championship

#18 Oklahoma State vs #7 Texas, 12 PM

Pick: Texas total over 34 points / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Over 55.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

For the Big 12 Championship, Texas’ team total over 34 and the game’s over 55.5 present strong betting opportunities. The Longhorns, under Steve Sarkisian’s leadership, have been on a remarkable winning streak, showcasing their offensive prowess, especially in their recent 57-point game against Texas Tech. Despite injuries, the team has shown resilience and depth, with players like Jaydon Blue stepping up significantly.

The matchup dynamics favor Texas heavily. Oklahoma State’s recent defensive struggles, particularly against dynamic offenses, suggest that Texas’ potent attack, led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, could have a field day. Ewers’ growth and adaptability, especially against the 3-3-5 scheme, further tilt the scales in Texas’ favor.

Moreover, the context of the game adds another layer of motivation for Texas. As their last game in the Big 12 before moving to a new conference, coupled with the need for a convincing win to bolster their College Football Playoff chances, Texas is expected to push for a high-scoring game. This scenario aligns well with the over bets on both Texas’ team total and the overall game. Our projections, while varied, consistently support the notion of a high-scoring affair, making these bets particularly attractive for this championship showdown.

Mountain West Conference Championshp

UNLV vs Boise State, 3 PM / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Boise State’s season, marked by a 7-5 record, doesn’t fully capture the team’s performance nuances. Their losses, aside from an opening defeat to Washington, were closely contested games. The mid-season coaching changes and the quarterback shuffle between Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen have added to the Broncos’ inconsistency.

On the other hand, UNLV has shown more consistent and dynamic play under Barry Odom’s leadership. The emergence of freshman quarterback Jaden Maiava and his connection with wideout Ricky White has been a key factor in their success. UNLV’s offense, particularly the GoGo offense orchestrated by OC Brennan Marion, has been effective against defenses with heavy secondary play. This offense, characterized by multiple tight-end and running-back sets, has successfully forced opponents to adjust their defensive strategies.

One critical aspect where UNLV could have an edge is in creating broken tackles. Boise State has struggled with missed tackles throughout the season, a trend that has persisted even after coaching changes. With UNLV ranking in the top 25 in creating broken tackles, this could be a significant factor in the game.

Furthermore, Boise State’s improved performance later in the season coincides with a lighter schedule, which might not fully reflect their strength against a well-rounded team like UNLV. The Rebels’ ability to score through explosive plays, combined with Boise State’s tackling issues, suggests that UNLV could cover the spread in this championship game.

SEC Championship

#1 Georgia vs #8 Alabama, 4 PM

Pick: Over 55.5 / Wager: 3% bankroll

Pick: Alabama +6 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

“Why Not?” Pick: Alabama ML @ +175 / Wager; 2% Bankroll:

In the much-anticipated SEC Championship clash between the titans of college football, Georgia and Alabama, our focus is on the over 55.5. It’s a game where the narrative often centers around the defensive prowess of both teams, but let’s not forget the offensive firepower they possess. This game isn’t just about strong defenses; it’s also a showcase of offensive talents capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

This matchup feels like a classic heavyweight bout. Alabama narrowly escaped the Iron Bowl, thanks to a last-gasp touchdown from Jalen Milroe, while Georgia marches into this game undefeated, yet again. However, history leans slightly towards Nick Saban, who has a 3-0 record against Kirby Smart in SEC Championships, barring the 2021 National Championship loss. Both teams boast formidable offensive and defensive lines, and the quarterbacks are neck and neck in terms of performance. In a game that seems evenly matched, taking the points seems wise, and why not consider Alabama on the Moneyline as well?

The SEC Championship Game has consistently been a high-scoring affair, with 12 of the last 14 games going over. The trend is even more striking in the last three matchups, where the games have averaged a staggering 81 points. Alabama’s track record in these high-stakes games is particularly noteworthy. They have a perfect record of hitting the over in SEC title games, with an 8-0 streak, and their recent form in 2023, with a 7-0-1 record for the over in their last eight games, suggests this trend might continue.

Alabama’s experience against top-tier teams this season adds another layer to this narrative. A victory in this championship is crucial for their playoff hopes. In a game that promises to be a close contest, the over seems like a compelling bet, offering a chance to capitalize on the offensive talents of both teams.

American Athletic Conference Championship

SMU vs #22 Tulane. 4 PM

Pick: Tulane ML / Wager 3% Bankroll

In the AAC Championship showdown, we’re faced with a challenging decision between SMU and Tulane. While our leanings are slightly towards Tulane at -3, we’re opting for the safer route with the moneyline. It’s a strategic choice, especially considering the significant injury to SMU’s quarterback Preston Stone. This isn’t just about his skills; it’s about thrusting an inexperienced freshman QB into the limelight in the season’s most crucial game. We’re putting our faith in the more seasoned and consistent Green Wave.

Tulane’s season has been nothing short of impressive. Apart from an early loss to Ole Miss, they’ve been on a relentless winning streak, securing 11 victories with 10 consecutive wins. Their ability to cover spreads is notable, especially in games with double-digit spreads. The situation at SMU, with backup Kevin Jennings stepping in, adds a layer of uncertainty. Tulane’s defense, consistently allowing only 18 points and 328 yards per game, will be a formidable challenge for Jennings, especially with heavy rain expected during the game. These conditions, combined with a first-time starter facing a robust defense, solidify our decision to go with Tulane on the moneyline. While the Alabama/Georgia game might steal most of the spotlight, this matchup is not one to overlook for its strategic betting value.

PARLAY ALERT 🚨🚨🚨🚨

Sun Belt Championship

App St. vs Troy, 4 PM

ACC Championship

#14 Louisville vs #4 Florida State, 8 PM

Pick: Troy ML/ Louisville +1.5 @ +164

Wager: 2% Bankroll

For our two-team parlay, we’re starting with the Sun Belt Championship game between App State and Troy. The weather forecast in Troy, Alabama, is a game-changer with a 100% chance of heavy rain and challenging field conditions. This weather scenario plays into the hands of Troy, a team that’s been on a remarkable winning streak with nine consecutive victories. Their balanced attack, led by QB Gunnar Watson and RB Kamani Vidal, coupled with the Sun Belt’s best defense, makes them a formidable opponent. App State, while on a winning streak themselves, faces a tough challenge against Troy’s robust defense. Opting for the moneyline on Troy gives us a safer bet, considering their impressive form and the adverse weather conditions.

The second game in our parlay is the ACC Championship, featuring Louisville against Florida State. Louisville, with a 10-2 record, has shown its prowess, especially in ACC play. Despite a recent loss to Kentucky, their defense has been a strong point, ranking fourth in the ACC. Florida State’s situation is complicated by the injury to Jordan Travis, putting Tate Rodemaker in the spotlight. Our analysis leans heavily towards Louisville, given Florida State’s reliance on a ground game that Louisville’s defense is well-equipped to handle. The Cardinals’ offense, led by Jack Plummer, Jawhar Jordan, and Jamari Thrash, is expected to perform well against Florida State’s defense. The market movement in favor of Louisville, shifting from 6.5-point underdogs to just 1 point, further reinforces our confidence in them for this matchup.

Combining these two games into a parlay offers a strategic approach to maximize potential returns, with both picks showing strong reasons to believe in their success.

BIG Championship

#2 Michigan vs #16 Iowa, 8 PM

Pick: Michigan over 30 points @ +102 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

In the Big Ten Championship, we’re setting our sights on Michigan to surpass 30 points, a bet that comes with enticing +102 odds. Michigan’s offensive prowess this season has been nothing short of remarkable, leading the Big Ten with an average of 37.6 points per game. Despite off-field controversies, the Wolverines have maintained a strong focus and determination, embodying a “Michigan vs. Everybody” mentality that has propelled them to success.

The last encounter between Michigan and Iowa in the Big Ten Championship saw the Wolverines dominate with a 42-3 victory. While Iowa boasts a formidable defense, ranking impressively in various defensive metrics, Michigan’s offense presents a challenge unlike any the Hawkeyes have faced this season. The Wolverines’ offense is not only efficient but also excels in finishing drives and preventing havoc, crucial factors against Iowa’s stout defense.

Iowa’s defense has been stellar, but it’s important to note that they haven’t faced an offense of Michigan’s caliber this season. The Wolverines’ balanced and potent offense, led by quarterback J.J. McCarthy, has the capability to challenge Iowa’s defense in ways they haven’t yet encountered. Michigan’s ability to execute effectively in critical situations, combined with their overall offensive strength, makes them a strong candidate to exceed 30 points in this high-stakes championship game.