BrownBagBets: Maintaining Calm and Focus After a Challenging Night

Good morning, BrownBagBets community,

Last night was one of those challenging evenings where the odds didn’t swing in our favor, resulting in an 0-5 record. However, it’s important to remember that this is just a small part of our journey. Despite the temporary setback, we are still maintaining a solid 103% of our starting bankroll for August. This exemplifies the strength and resilience of our bankroll management strategy.

At BrownBagBets, we believe in the long-term vision. Our approach is not about instant riches but about sustained, disciplined investing. Just like in the stock market, where patience and strategy are key, sports betting also requires a steady hand and a clear mind. We understand that not every day will be a winning day, but our goal is to win the month, the quarter, and ultimately the year.

What sets us apart is our proprietary bankroll intelligence system. This system allows us to mitigate losses and capitalize on gains. Even when the win-loss record might not reflect it, our strategic adjustments ensure that we maintain and grow our bankroll over time. This is how we can weather the storms and still come out ahead.

Today’s slate presents us with 15 MLB games to work through. We’ve identified some promising indicators and will be sharing our best picks along with our wager guidance. We encourage everyone to stay calm, stay focused, and trust in the process. Remember, each bet is a step on our path to consistent success.

Thank you for your unwavering support and trust in BrownBagBets. Together, we will continue to grow and achieve our goals.

Let’s get back to winning today!

MLB: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

Recent Trends and Offense

Monday’s makeup game between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets is set to be an offensive showcase. The Cardinals have been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, with nine or more runs scored in eight of their last ten games. This trend suggests both a potent offense and some pitching vulnerabilities that the Mets could exploit.

Pitching Dynamics

Sean Manaea is on the mound for the Mets, and while he’s coming off a strong performance with a season-high eleven strikeouts, this sets him up for a potential regression. The Cardinals, seeing him for the second time this season, are likely to make adjustments that could lead to more scoring opportunities.

Cardinals’ Consistency

Despite the potential fatigue from playing in Sunday Night’s prime time game, the Cardinals have shown resilience and adaptability. Their recent form indicates they won’t be slowed by the quick turnaround. Their consistent offensive output and ability to score runs in bunches make them a threat to push the total runs over the mark.

High-Scoring Expectations

Given the recent scoring trends and the pitching matchup, this game is poised to be another high-scoring affair. The dynamics of a makeup game often lead to less conservative play, further enhancing the likelihood of runs being scored.

Bet: Over 8.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians’ Consistency at Home

The Cleveland Guardians boast the best overall and home records in baseball, making them a formidable team at Progressive Field. Given this consistency and strength at home, getting +1.5 runs presents significant value, especially when playing in their own park.

Pitching Matchup

Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound, who is undoubtedly a strong pitcher but has shown vulnerability on the road this season with a 4.00 ERA. His performances away from home suggest that the Guardians could find opportunities to score. Cleveland counters with Logan Allen, a capable pitcher who can keep the game close enough to make the +1.5 run line appealing.

Bullpen Advantage

A critical factor in this game is the bullpen. Cleveland’s bullpen has been outstanding, frequently closing out tight games and preserving leads or narrow deficits late. If the game is tied or close going into the seventh inning, the Guardians’ bullpen could be the key to covering the +1.5 spread. Conversely, Arizona’s bullpen might be stretched thin, potentially leading to opportunities for the Guardians to exploit.

Bet: Guardians +1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals

Fading Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin’s struggles on the mound have been a consistent theme throughout the season, making him a prime target for bettors. The Nationals have a dismal 6-16 record when he pitches, and they’re coming off an embarrassing 17-0 loss. In 13 of those 16 losses, the margin was two runs or more, highlighting how often games get out of hand when Corbin is on the mound. Over his last seven starts, Corbin has a 6.46 ERA, and the Nationals tend to leave him in games to eat innings, even when he’s struggling, which can lead to significant run totals for opponents.

Previous Performance Against the Giants

In an April matchup against San Francisco, Corbin allowed 11 hits and 7 earned runs in just over five innings, showcasing his vulnerability against this lineup. The Giants have been hot, going 7-2 in their last nine games, with six of those wins coming by multiple runs. This trend bodes well for another strong performance against a struggling Nationals team.

Solid Performance by Logan Webb

Logan Webb has been a reliable starter for the Giants, providing stability on the mound. With the Nationals struggling to score, Webb’s consistency could keep Washington’s offense in check, paving the way for a comfortable Giants victory.

Bet: Giants -1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Andrew Heaney’s Strikeout Potential

Andrew Heaney has seen a dip in his strikeout production recently, resulting in three consecutive unders on his strikeout prop. However, he faces the Houston Astros today, the last opponent against whom he went over his strikeout prop. On July 12th, Heaney recorded four strikeouts in the first two innings and finished with five. This early success suggests he can achieve the over on his strikeout prop again today. Look for Heaney to have success in the early innings against the Astros.

Hunter Brown’s Innings Workload

Houston’s Hunter Brown had consistently gone at least six innings in 12 straight outings before a slight hiccup last time out against Oakland, where he lasted only 5.2 innings. This was an anomaly, as Brown has been generally reliable. Despite being roughed up by Texas earlier this year, he managed to go six strong innings against the Rangers in mid-June. The key will be how he handles Marcus Semien, who has historically hit well against him. If Brown can navigate the bottom of the first inning without trouble, he should reach over 17.5 outs.

Astros’ Recent Form and Overall Matchup

The Houston Astros have cooled off recently, going 2-5 over the last week after a hot streak. Conversely, the Texas Rangers had a nice comeback run but have lost four of their last five games. With Andrew Heaney on the mound, who has struggled in his last two starts, including a rough outing against St. Louis where he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings, the Rangers might be vulnerable. Hunter Brown, despite being hit hard by Pittsburgh in his last start, had three excellent starts prior, allowing only three runs combined and leading Houston to wins in all three. Expect Brown to revert to his true form and lead the Astros to a victory.

Bet: Andrew Heaney over 4.5 K’s @ +120 / Wager: 3%

Bet: Hunter Brown over 17.5 outs / Wager: 3%

Bet: Astros ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics

Fading the White Sox’s Historic Struggles

The Chicago White Sox are on the brink of tying the modern-day record for the longest losing streak in the American League, set by the 1988 Orioles, with a 21st consecutive defeat potentially on the horizon. Over their past eleven games, the Pale Hose have been outscored 85-31, highlighting their significant struggles both on the mound and at the plate. Given their current form, any opportunity to bet against the White Sox at a plus price is highly enticing.

Oakland’s Recent Form and Starting Pitching Edge

The Oakland Athletics have been playing spirited baseball, especially with JP Sears on the mound. The A’s have won five of the last six starts made by Sears, who is coming off a dominant seven shutout innings performance against the Giants. This recent form gives Oakland a substantial edge, particularly given the White Sox’s difficulties against left-handed pitchers, with a 7-14 record this season.

Home Field Advantage and Betting Trends

The Athletics have been one of the best teams in baseball against the spread (ATS) at home since June, with a third-best home win percentage ATS. Despite not plundering their roster at the trade deadline, they have continued to play competitively, recently giving the Dodgers a tough series. This resilience and home field advantage further support the case for betting on Oakland.

White Sox’s Ineptitude and Bullpen Woes

The White Sox’s bullpen has been notably ineffective, adding to their overall struggles. With Pedro Grifol essentially out of options, sending out an ineffective rotation and bullpen, the Athletics are in a prime position to capitalize. The White Sox have also shown a particular vulnerability against left-handed pitching, which bodes well for Oakland and JP Sears.

Bet: Athletics -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 5%