Kicking August into High Gear with Smart Betting and Bankroll Intelligence

We’ve opened up August with a bang, celebrating our third consecutive winning night and continuing our strong run that started in late July. Last night, we went 4-4 but still managed to gain a solid 10% to our bankroll. This is the power of bankroll intelligence—a cornerstone of the BrownBagBets approach.

Bankroll Intelligence at Work

At BrownBagBets, we believe in more than just picking winners; we believe in smart betting. Despite an even split in wins and losses last night, our strategic play of two 5% bets, alongside our standard 3% plays, ensured a profitable outcome. This meticulous approach to managing our bankroll allows us to optimize returns and keep our betting community in the green.

Today’s Focus

Today, we have a full slate of 15 MLB games to dissect and analyze. Our eyes are on a couple of standout games displaying strong indicators of value. Look for our picks in the Phillies vs. Mariners battle in Seattle and the Blue Jays vs. Yankees rubber match in the Bronx. But don’t worry, we’ll have more plays lined up to ensure we keep the momentum going!

Stay the Course

Remember, our approach is about winning the month, not just the day. With each calculated bet, we edge closer to our goal of turning sports betting into a source of passive income. We share our indicators and rationale openly, allowing our community to grow and succeed together.

Let’s get this money in the bag!

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Recent Trends

Both the Yankees and Blue Jays have been hitting the over consistently in recent games. The Yankees have gone over the total in nine straight games, while the Blue Jays have done so in ten of their last eleven. In their last seven meetings, the over has also been the result each time. This trend suggests a high-scoring affair, regardless of who wins.

Yankees’ Consistent Offense

The Yankees’ offense has been on a tear, contributing significantly to the high number of overs. Their ability to consistently score runs has been a key factor, and this trend shows no sign of slowing down. This offensive consistency plays a crucial role in expecting another high-scoring game tonight.

Blue Jays’ Resurgent Bats

The Blue Jays have also started hitting well, arguably for the first time this season. This resurgence at the plate has led to a significant number of their recent games going over the total. This offensive uptick is crucial in supporting the over, especially when facing a team like the Yankees.

Pitching Considerations

Under normal circumstances, having Gerrit Cole on the mound might suggest a lower-scoring game. However, given the current trends and the offensive explosion from both teams, the over appears to be the stronger play tonight. Despite Cole’s capabilities, the recent performances suggest another high-scoring game is likely.

Bet: Over 9.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Miami’s Struggles Against Left-Handed Pitching

The Marlins have been the worst team in MLB when facing left-handed pitchers, holding a dismal 7-30 record against them. This trend doesn’t bode well for their chances against the Braves, especially given the recent trades that have weakened their lineup and bullpen even further. With key players gone, the Marlins’ ability to compete has significantly diminished.

Braves’ Current Form

The Braves are currently one of the hottest teams in MLB, and they’ve been taking advantage of weakened opponents. Their offense has been clicking, and they’ve shown resilience in maintaining leads and extending them. The Braves’ form suggests they are well-positioned to continue their winning ways against a depleted Marlins squad.

Max Fried’s Dominance

Max Fried is not just any left-handed pitcher; he’s among the top 5 lefties in the league. Fried has been particularly strong in his outings against the Marlins, and with his return, he is expected to deliver a sharp performance. His prior start against Miami was impressive, and there’s every reason to believe he can replicate that success.

Edward Cabrera’s Inconsistency

Edward Cabrera’s recent performances have left much to be desired, and the Marlins will struggle to get much length from him. Cabrera’s inconsistency adds another layer of difficulty for Miami, making it hard to see them putting up much of a fight against the Braves.

Bet: Braves -1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

Mitchell Parker’s Struggles

Reality seems to have caught up with Mitchell Parker, a lefty who has been underwhelming throughout his minor league career. His recent performances have been particularly concerning, with a 6.89 ERA over his last seven outings. Parker has also been prone to the long ball, allowing seven home runs in that span. When he faced the Brewers last time, he couldn’t even get out of the first inning, highlighting his struggles against this lineup.

Nationals’ Decline Post-Deadline

The Nationals have lost momentum following the trade deadline, depleting their roster of quality players. The team’s lack of depth and talent is becoming increasingly evident, and it’s affecting their ability to compete, especially against stronger teams like the Brewers.

Tobias Myers’ Consistency

While Tobias Myers might not have electric stuff, he has been consistent, giving the Brewers a chance to win by going 5+ innings in his starts. His steadiness on the mound provides a solid foundation for the Brewers, who have been particularly hot on the road in the second half of the season.

Brewers’ Road Form

The Brewers have found their stride on the road, becoming a formidable force as they chase a playoff spot. Their ability to stay locked in and grind out wins is crucial, and facing a struggling Nationals team provides them with a prime opportunity to secure another victory.

Bet: Brewers ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes Day

Today marks another start for Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, a day that has consistently generated excitement and high expectations. Skenes has been nothing short of dominant this season, and his performance today could catapult him into the lead for the NL Cy Young race, a position he’s currently just behind Chris Sale in. His ability to stifle opposing lineups has been well-documented, and today’s game will likely be another showcase of his elite pitching skills.

Pirates’ Run Support

The key question for the Pirates, as always, is whether they can provide enough run support for Skenes. Their offense needs to capitalize on scoring opportunities to ensure that Skenes’ efforts on the mound translate into a win. Historically, the Pirates have struggled to consistently support their ace, but today’s matchup against the Diamondbacks offers a favorable opportunity.

Diamondbacks’ Challenges

The Diamondbacks face a tough challenge going up against Skenes, whose dominance could stymie their offensive efforts. Arizona’s recent form hasn’t been strong enough to inspire confidence against a top-tier pitcher like Skenes, making the Pirates a strong pick, especially with the run line providing extra value.

Bet: Pirates -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Epic Losing Streak

The Chicago White Sox are in the midst of a historically bad stretch, having lost 18 straight games heading into this matchup. This epic losing streak is unprecedented, and it’s hard to see them turning things around against the Twins, especially with Chris Flexen on the mound.

Chris Flexen’s Struggles

Chris Flexen’s performances have been consistently poor, and his presence on the mound has almost guaranteed a loss for the White Sox. With a record of 2-12 in his starts and losing 15 straight games with him pitching, it’s evident that Flexen has struggled mightily this season. Moreover, the White Sox bullpen has not provided any relief, often exacerbating the team’s issues after Flexen exits.

Twins’ Superiority

The Minnesota Twins, by contrast, are playing with energy and confidence. They are the far superior team in this matchup, and their dominance over the White Sox this season is evident with a 10-1 record and a +66 run differential. Simeon Woods-Richardson has been particularly effective at home, posting a 3.09 ERA, which bodes well for Minnesota’s chances.

Bet: Twins -1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

Current Form and Momentum

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a slump, having lost six straight games. This poor form has seen their status as favorites for Sunday’s game questioned, especially considering their recent struggles. On the other hand, the Seattle Mariners have been on an upward trajectory, winning six of their last eight games. This positive momentum includes a remarkable rally from a 0-5 deficit last night, showcasing their resilience and growing confidence.

Pitching Matchup

Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ starting pitcher, had a rather underwhelming July with a 3.91 ERA. His performances have not been up to his usual standards, which could be a cause for concern for Philadelphia. Conversely, Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, despite a couple of recent bumps, has been solid at home with a 2.89 ERA and an impressive 0.90 WHIP this season. His consistency at T-Mobile Park is a significant advantage for Seattle.

Mariners’ Offense and Home Advantage

Seattle’s offense has shown signs of life in the past week, contributing significantly to their recent wins. Playing at T-Mobile Park provides a further boost, where the Mariners have performed well. The combination of improved hitting, solid pitching from Gilbert, and the momentum from their recent rally positions Seattle favorably for a potential sweep this weekend.

Bet: Mariners ML @ +115 / Wager: 4%