Weekend Sports Action: MLB Divisional Round, EPL, and NCAAF Betting Opportunities

Yesterday may have been a light day for plays, but it was a winning one nonetheless. Our bankrolls have climbed back up to 102% for October, setting us up perfectly as we head into a jam-packed weekend filled with betting opportunities across the board.

The MLB Divisional Round kicks off today, promising some intense matchups as teams battle for their spot in the championship series. EPL offers intriguing plays that are catching our eye, while NCAAF takes center stage as always with some great value plays on the board.

And don’t be surprised if we start dipping into the NHL soon—it’s only a matter of time before we share some smart picks in that space too.

Let’s keep this winning momentum going and stack some cash as we roll into the weekend. 💰

English Premier League: Bournemouth at Leicester City

Pick: Bournemouth ML @ +110 / Wager: 2%

Bournemouth’s Recent Form:

Bournemouth is coming off a significant win against Southampton, and the advantages they exploited against the Saints will be applicable in this matchup against Leicester City. Under the guidance of their manager, Bournemouth has developed into the best pressing team in the Premier League, forcing opponents into turnovers in dangerous areas with remarkable efficiency.

Leicester’s Struggles:

Leicester City, led by Steve Cooper, is still attempting to replicate their Championship style by building from the back. However, this strategy is unlikely to succeed against Bournemouth’s high-pressure tactics. The Foxes have only managed to create 4.3 expected goals over their first six Premier League matches, ranking them dead last in the league, indicating significant struggles in their attacking output.

Bournemouth’s Offensive Prowess:

In contrast, Bournemouth’s offense has been impressive, averaging 1.66 expected goals per 90 minutes and ranking third in total shots taken. Their effectiveness in the wide areas has been notable, as they have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area this season. This attacking strength will provide a distinct advantage against a struggling Leicester defense.

Value Analysis:

We have Bournemouth projected at -121, highlighting the value in backing the Cherries at +110. Their combination of strong pressing and offensive capability makes them a compelling pick for this matchup.

MLB Divisional Playoff: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Tigers ML @ +120 / Wager: 3%

Unorthodox Strategy from the Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers have been implementing unconventional tactics in recent months, and this playoff game is no exception. Manager AJ Hinch is opting for the opener route in Game 1, sending reliever Tyler Holton to the mound. Holton’s unique position as a fourth pitcher to start in back-to-back postseason games showcases the team’s creative approach, despite the unusual circumstances.

Tyler Holton’s Role:

While Holton is expected to pitch only an inning or so, his performance against Houston indicates that he can set a solid tone for the game. The Tigers’ strategy may involve relying on their bullpen heavily throughout the game, which can be an effective approach in playoff scenarios, especially when they have a plan in place for Game 2 with Tarik Skubal likely taking the hill.

Cleveland’s Recent Struggles:

The Guardians have not been as dominant lately, winning only four of Tanner Bibee’s last eight starts. Bibee has faced the Tigers four times this season and posted an ERA of 4.50 against them, suggesting he can be scored upon. This inconsistency opens the door for the Tigers to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

MLB Divisional Playoffs: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 3%

Mets’ Recent Momentum and Challenges:

The New York Mets showcased some magic during their recent series in Milwaukee, but manager Carlos Mendoza is taking a significant gamble by starting Kodai Senga, who has been sidelined since July 26 due to triceps issues. While Senga has potential, his lack of recent game action raises questions about his readiness for the intensity of the postseason.

Phillies’ Strong Playoff History:

On the other hand, the Philadelphia Phillies have thrived in the playoffs, particularly in their matchups against the Braves over the past two seasons. They carry momentum into this game, supported by a strong home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park (CBP).

Zack Wheeler’s Dominance:

Zack Wheeler has been in exceptional form, finishing September with a 2.23 ERA over five starts. At home this season, Wheeler posted a stellar 2.31 ERA and an impressive 10-3 record, making him a reliable asset in this crucial matchup. His consistency and effectiveness can put the Phillies in a commanding position against a potentially vulnerable Mets lineup.

Travel Fatigue for the Mets:

The Mets have faced a grueling schedule this past week, flying back and forth between Milwaukee and Atlanta, culminating in a doubleheader. This hectic travel could weigh heavily on their performance, potentially leading to fatigue as they face a well-rested and focused Phillies team.

MLB Divisional Playoffs: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Padres ML @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Pitching Advantage:

The Padres boast a superior pitching staff compared to the Dodgers, and they’re getting plus money in this matchup. Dylan Cease will face Jack Flaherty for the second time in ten days. In their previous meeting, the Dodgers edged out a 4-3 victory, but both pitchers allowed three runs in five innings, leaving them with no decisions. Cease previously dominated the Dodgers in July, winning 8-1 while outpacing Clayton Kershaw.

Recent Form:

Cease has been exceptional in his last three starts, not allowing a run in the first two before facing the Dodgers again. On the flip side, Flaherty has struggled recently, giving up ten runs across his last three outings. This contrast in form provides a clear edge for Cease and the Padres.

Dodgers’ Inactivity:

The Dodgers have had a layoff and may come into this game rusty, while the Padres are battle-tested and ready for the challenge. This dynamic could give San Diego an additional edge, especially in a high-stakes playoff environment.

NCAAF: SMU at Louisville

Pick: SMU +6.5 / Wager: 3%

Balanced Offense with Jennings at QB:

Now that the Mustangs have settled in with Jennings as their quarterback, the offense has achieved a level of balance not seen earlier in the season. This newfound balance has allowed the defense to stay rested and focus on pressuring the opposing quarterback. This dynamic gives SMU a strong chance against Louisville.

Recent Offensive Surge:

The Mustangs are riding a wave of momentum, having scored a staggering 108 combined points in their last two games. Their blowout victories over TCU and Florida State showcased their offensive prowess, as they amassed over 200 rushing yards in each contest. This offensive capability makes them a formidable opponent for any defense.

Tough Spot for Louisville:

Louisville enters this game after back-to-back grueling contests against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. While they managed to secure a win against Georgia Tech, their late rally fell short in a 24-17 loss to the Irish. This taxing schedule could leave the Cardinals vulnerable, especially against a red-hot SMU team.

Value in the Underdog:

As this game represents a critical swing match in a tightly contested ACC race, we believe the current form of the Mustangs, combined with the value offered at +6.5, presents a compelling opportunity to back the underdog.

NCAAF: Boston College at Virginia

Pick: Virginia ML / Wager: 3%

Offensive Struggles for Boston College:

Boston College will welcome back quarterback Thomas Castellanos after his absence in last week’s win over Western Kentucky. However, the overall performance of the offense has been underwhelming, averaging just over 21 points per game in the last three weeks. This lack of scoring can put significant pressure on their defense, especially in conference play.

Virginia’s Offensive Momentum:

Virginia is coming off a season-best performance, scoring 43 points against Coastal Carolina. This offensive outburst indicates that the Cavaliers are finding their rhythm, and they will look to carry this momentum into their matchup against Boston College. The ability to put points on the board consistently could be a deciding factor in this game.

Close Contest from Last Season:

Last year, Virginia played Boston College tightly, with the game ultimately decided by just three points. This familiarity between the teams adds an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup, but the recent form of Virginia’s offense gives them the edge heading into this game.

Home Field Advantage:

Playing at home provides Virginia with a crucial advantage. The energy and support from their fans can often influence the outcome in tight games, especially when both teams are evenly matched.

NCAAF: Missouri at Texas A&M

Pick: Under 48.5 / Wager: 2%

Defensive Matchup:

Missouri presents the toughest defensive challenge that Texas A&M has encountered since their season-opening loss to Notre Dame. Conversely, Texas A&M boasts a defense that is significantly superior to any unit Missouri has faced thus far. This clash of formidable defenses sets the stage for a low-scoring affair.

Physical Play Anticipated:

Expect a physical and gritty game, with both teams likely to focus on controlling the clock and minimizing risks. The struggle to maintain offensive momentum will be crucial, leading to a game where each possession counts heavily.

Scoring Projection:

Given the strengths of both defenses and the anticipated challenges for the offenses, I project a final score in the vicinity of 24-21. This score aligns well with the Under 48.5 total, reinforcing the value of this wager.

NCAAF: Purdue at Wisconsin

Pick: Under 45.5 / Wager: 2%

Purdue’s Offensive Struggles:

Purdue has been in a freefall offensively, managing 21 points or fewer in their last three games. This poor performance led to the dismissal of their offensive coordinator before October even rolled around. With an anemic offense, it’s hard to see them putting up significant points against a tough opponent like Wisconsin.

Wisconsin’s Defensive Strength:

Wisconsin boasts a formidable defense that has consistently stifled opposing offenses. They have limited teams to low scoring, including just 10 points against Alabama. Their defense has been the backbone of the team, making it challenging for any offense to find success against them.

Impact of Injury:

The Badgers did face a setback with the news that top rusher Chez Mellusi has opted out for the remainder of the season to recover from injuries. While this impacts their offensive output, it also aligns with a trend where Wisconsin has struggled to score big, with games against Western Michigan and South Dakota resulting in points held in the 20s.

Historical Trends:

The Under has hit in seven of Wisconsin’s last ten home games, indicating a consistent pattern of low-scoring affairs at Camp Randall. Given Purdue’s offensive ineptitude and Wisconsin’s defensive prowess, it’s reasonable to expect a game total well below the line set at 45.5.

NCAAF: Pittsburgh at North Carolina

Pick: Pittsburgh -2.5 / Wager: 2%

Panthers Coming Off a Dominant Performance:

Pittsburgh enters this matchup fresh off a bye week, allowing them to regroup and recharge. In their last game, they put on an offensive clinic, scoring an astounding 73 points. This explosive performance has propelled them to an average of 46 points per game this season, showcasing their offensive firepower and ability to put points on the board.

North Carolina’s Struggles:

In stark contrast, North Carolina is reeling from back-to-back tough games, including a shocking 70-50 loss to James Madison and a narrow one-point defeat to Duke, where they squandered a 20-0 lead. The Tar Heels’ recent struggles suggest a lack of momentum and confidence, which could be detrimental against a high-scoring opponent like Pitt.

QB Advantage and Returning Talent:

Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein must be thrilled to face a defense that recently allowed a barrage of points. With 12 touchdown passes and only two interceptions this season, Holstein is in excellent form. Additionally, he will benefit from the return of running back Rodney Hammond, last season’s top rusher, who adds another dimension to an already potent offense.

UNC’s Coaching Concerns:

With the Tar Heels struggling, there are whispers about the future of head coach Mack Brown. This uncertainty can impact team morale, especially when facing a formidable opponent like Pitt that is riding high on confidence and momentum.

NCAAF: Iowa at Ohio State

Pick: Ohio State -18 / Wager: 3%

Buckeyes’ Offensive Power:

Ohio State is clearly on a mission this season, displaying an explosive offense that poses significant challenges for opposing defenses. The Buckeyes have consistently beaten their opponents by over 30 points, demonstrating their ability to dominate on the scoreboard.

Iowa’s Defensive Struggles:

The Iowa defense, while traditionally strong, does not appear to be as formidable as in previous years. The Hawkeyes have struggled against ranked teams, holding a dismal 0-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against AP-ranked teams, with an average loss margin of 27.3 points per game. This trend suggests they may struggle to contain the Buckeyes’ offensive attack.

Recent Performance Against Ranked Teams:

Last season, Iowa faced three ranked teams and was shut out in all three matchups. This history raises concerns about their ability to compete against top-tier competition, especially considering Ohio State’s current form.

Limited Offensive Options for Iowa:

While Kaleb Johnson has been a standout performer for Iowa, he is the primary offensive threat. The recent struggles in the second half of the Iowa State game highlighted Iowa’s inability to adapt when faced with defensive pressure. If a team like Iowa State can shut down Johnson, Ohio State, with its superior talent and defensive capabilities, can do the same.

NCAAF: Mississippi at South Carolina

Pick: Ole Miss -9 / Wager: 2%

Rebounding from a Tough Loss:

After a disappointing home loss to Kentucky, the Rebels are looking to make a statement in this matchup. Lane Kiffin’s teams historically perform well after a significant loss, especially when favored by 7 or more points. Following such losses, Kiffin’s squads are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their next game, highlighting their ability to bounce back.

Strong Track Record as Road Favorites:

Since taking the helm at Ole Miss, Kiffin has shown a solid track record when playing as a road favorite, boasting a 10-3-1 ATS record since 2019. This trend suggests that the Rebels are not only capable of winning on the road but often do so convincingly.

Injury Concerns for South Carolina:

There are growing concerns regarding the health of South Carolina’s starting quarterback and running back, which could significantly hinder their offensive performance. With the potential absence of key players, the Gamecocks may struggle to keep pace with an Ole Miss team eager to demonstrate their offensive capabilities.

Jaxson Dart’s Leadership:

Quarterback Jaxson Dart has shown the ability to lead the Rebels effectively. With a solid supporting cast, he should be able to exploit South Carolina’s weaknesses, especially if their defense is compromised by injuries.

NCAAF: Clemson at Florida State

Pick: Florida State +15 / Wager: 2%

QB Change Sparks Hope:

Florida State’s quarterback situation has been tumultuous, with DJ Uiagalelei struggling significantly, including throwing three interceptions in last week’s blowout loss to SMU. However, the decision to replace him with Brock Glenn, while risky, could serve as a catalyst for improvement. Sometimes a change at quarterback can inject new life into a struggling offense, and Glenn might be just what the Seminoles need to rally.

Clemson’s Soft Schedule:

Clemson has been cruising through their schedule since suffering a blowout loss to Georgia in Week 1, facing largely underwhelming competition. This has allowed them to build confidence, but it remains to be seen how they will perform against a more competitive team like Florida State. With the Seminoles looking to reclaim their pride, they could present a tougher challenge than Clemson anticipates.

Motivation for the Seminoles:

Despite their struggles, Florida State will be motivated to put on a strong performance, especially against a formidable opponent like Clemson. The desire to salvage respectability after recent setbacks can galvanize a team, and the Seminoles are likely to rise to the occasion. Expect them to fight hard and keep the game competitive, making the +15 line appealing.

NCAAF: Michigan at Washington

Pick: Washington -1.5 / Wager: 2%

Michigan’s Road Challenges:

This matchup marks not only Michigan’s first road game of the season but also a significant travel challenge as they head to the Pacific Northwest. The Wolverines’ offense has relied heavily on the run game, which raises questions about its sustainability against a solid opponent like Washington. A one-dimensional offensive approach can often be exploited, especially in a hostile environment.

Washington’s Offensive Prowess:

Washington’s quarterback, Will Rogers, has been exceptional, showcasing a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This ability to move the ball through the air makes the Huskies a formidable opponent, particularly with the 21st-ranked offense in FBS. Their offense has demonstrated the capacity to outgain opponents, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

Motivation Factor:

The psychological edge also leans towards Washington. They were defeated by Michigan in the CFP semifinals in January, and the opportunity for revenge will likely provide extra motivation for the Huskies to perform at their best on home turf.

NCAAF: Miami (FL) at California

Pick: California +13 / Wager: 2%

Cal’s Resilience Under Pressure:

Under head coach Justin Wilcox, California has cultivated a reputation for being a tough, competitive program, often defying expectations despite a modest overall record of 39-44. They have a knack for close games and have proven to be giant killers, including a notable road victory over UCLA last year to secure a bowl berth. This season, Cal is off to a solid 3-1 start and boasts one of the stingiest defensive units in the country.

Miami’s Wild Win Creates Vulnerability:

Miami comes into this game riding high after a thrilling victory over Virginia Tech, which was dramatically decided by a last-second Hail Mary attempt that was ultimately overturned. While this victory showcased Miami’s high-powered offense, the emotional toll of such a game can create a vulnerable mindset. Traveling across the country to face a tough opponent like California could lead to a letdown performance.

Strong Defense Against High-Powered Offense:

California’s defensive prowess should not be underestimated, especially when facing a Miami team that has shown its share of inconsistency. The Bears are historically known for their tenacity, particularly in challenging matchups, and they have the potential to disrupt Miami’s rhythm. With their defense being among the best in the nation, Cal is well-equipped to keep this game close.