BrownBagBets Sunday Special: Top Bets for NFL Week 11 and Much More

Staying the Course After a Mixed Saturday

Yesterday started strong, but a 6-6 finish ultimately brought a small setback to our bankroll. At BrownBagBets, we know this is all part of the process. Betting success isn’t about avoiding losses entirely; it’s about managing them, staying disciplined, and focusing on the long game. Winning the month requires consistency, learning from each day, and sticking to the strategy that has proven itself over time.

Now, we turn the page to Sunday, and all eyes are on NFL Week 11. With a full slate of games, today offers plenty of opportunities to get back on track. Our team has been working hard to refine our picks, ensuring that our adjustments to weighting and indicators align with the trends we’re seeing in the league.

Today’s Focus: NFL Picks and a Full Sports Slate

Here’s what’s on tap for today’s action:

NFL Week 11:

• Sundays are built for football, and today’s NFL slate gives us a range of games to target. From spreads to totals and props, we’re diving into every matchup to find value. After spending weeks analyzing where we’ve been strong and where we’ve fallen short, we’re confident in our adjustments heading into today.

NBA and NHL:

• While the NFL is the main event, both the NBA and NHL offer additional opportunities to round out today’s betting card. With mid-season trends taking shape, we’re focused on spotting misaligned lines and matchups that provide strong edges.

NCAA Basketball:

• Early-season college hoops continues to present opportunities as oddsmakers adjust to how teams are performing. We’ve been monitoring rotations, early-season form, and key matchups to find plays that align with our process.

Trusting the Process and Staying Disciplined

At BrownBagBets, setbacks are part of the journey. Yesterday’s results might not have delivered gains, but they didn’t derail us either. The key is trusting the process, staying focused, and making every play count. With a packed NFL-focused Sunday, we’re ready to make today a winning day and keep building momentum for the rest of November.

Let’s go out there, stick to the plan, and crush this Sunday slate!

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Pick: Packers -5.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:
The Packers head into Soldier Field off a bye week, well-prepared and facing a Bears team in turmoil. Chicago’s decision to part ways with Shane Waldron and hand play-calling duties to Thomas Brown highlights the ongoing struggles and lack of cohesion in their offense. Reports of locker room discord, with veterans upset over the handling of rookie Caleb Williams, further amplify the instability.

Green Bay, in contrast, has a strong historical edge at Soldier Field, covering in their last five trips and winning by 7+ points in all those matchups. The Packers' defense, adept at forcing turnovers, should capitalize against a Bears offense that has managed just one touchdown in their last three games. Jordan Love should also benefit from the bye, giving the Packers an additional edge against a faltering Chicago secondary.

Key Trends Supporting the Packers:

• Green Bay has covered 5 straight in Chicago and won 12 of the last 13 matchups at Soldier Field.

• The Bears' offense has regressed, with just one offensive touchdown in three games.

• Matt LaFleur is 19-13 ATS in division games and has covered five straight road division games.

Projected Outcome:
Expect the Packers to control the game on both sides of the ball. A well-coached and rested Green Bay team is primed to take advantage of Chicago’s dysfunction. Final Score: Packers 27, Bears 17.

Recommendation: Take the Packers -5.5 confidently, with Green Bay set to extend their dominance at Soldier Field.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions -13.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
This is a significant spread for any NFL game, but the Lions have shown they’re more than capable of covering large numbers in recent weeks. With commanding wins over the Cowboys and Titans by 30+ points, Detroit’s offense and defense are operating at a high level. The Jaguars, on the other hand, face the daunting task of traveling to Detroit without their starting quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, leaving them heavily reliant on Mac Jones, who has shown little to inspire confidence in recent performances.

Detroit’s defense should have no trouble limiting a one-dimensional Jacksonville offense, likely holding the Jags to under two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jared Goff and the Lions' dynamic offense should thrive against a Jaguars defense that has struggled against efficient passing attacks. After a sloppy showing last week, Goff is expected to bounce back to his usual form, allowing Detroit to dominate throughout.

Key Trends Supporting the Lions:

• The Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

• Detroit has won multiple games this season by 30+ points, showing their ability to dominate weaker opponents.

• The Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Projected Outcome:
Detroit’s balance on offense and defense makes them a tough matchup for a depleted Jaguars team. The Lions should control the pace and tempo, pulling away early and maintaining a sizable lead throughout. Final Score: Lions 34, Jaguars 10.

Recommendation: Bet confidently on the Lions to cover the -13.5 spread, as this game has all the hallmarks of another blowout victory for Detroit.

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Pick: De'Von Achane Over 101.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards
Wager: 3%

Analysis

De’Von Achane has been a key player in Miami’s offense, surpassing 100 total yards in four of Tua Tagovailoa’s five starts this season when receiving at least 16 touches. His explosiveness and versatility make him a significant threat against defenses that struggle to contain dynamic playmakers.

The Raiders’ defense has been porous against running backs, allowing five players to eclipse 100 total yards this season. Achane’s ability to break big plays both rushing and receiving provides him with multiple avenues to hit this total.

Key Trends

• The Raiders have allowed an average of 127.5 total yards per game to opposing running backs.

• Achane is averaging an NFL-best 7.9 yards per touch.

• When Achane has 16+ touches, he consistently exceeds 100 total yards.

Projected Outcome

Expect Achane to be heavily involved in Miami’s game plan, receiving 16-20 touches against an underperforming Raiders defense. He should comfortably surpass 101.5 total yards barring any setbacks.

Recommendation

Achane’s combination of efficiency, volume, and matchup makes this prop a strong play.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Pick: Rams -4.5
Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Rams’ offense is coming off an underwhelming performance on Monday Night Football, struggling to capitalize on red-zone opportunities. However, this matchup against the Patriots presents an opportunity for redemption. New England’s defense ranks dead last in pass rate allowed and has struggled at home, giving up an average of 25.3 points per game.

Matthew Stafford’s supporting cast is intact, and with the offensive line facing less pressure from a weaker Patriots pass rush, the Rams’ offense is well-positioned for a bounce-back. Cooper Kupp, the go-to target in Stafford’s arsenal, thrives in outdoor road games, averaging 8 receptions per game with Stafford under center. He is integral to the Rams’ ability to sustain drives, especially with the run game faltering.

On defense, the Rams excel in creating pressure, ranking first in pressure rate. This spells trouble for New England’s injury-plagued offensive line, which ranks 30th in pressure allowed. Mac Jones and the Patriots offense will likely struggle to generate sustained drives against LA’s defensive front.

Key Trends

• The Rams have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as road favorites.

• Patriots’ offense averages just 14.6 points per game in their last five contests.

• Matthew Stafford is 6-2 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown in his last eight games.

Projected Outcome

The Rams should control this game on both sides of the ball, exploiting the Patriots' weaknesses in the passing game and keeping New England’s offense off balance with consistent defensive pressure. Expect Stafford to bounce back with a solid performance, leading the Rams to a double-digit victory.

Recommendation

Back the Rams at -4.5 in what feels like a prime rebound spot for Sean McVay’s squad.

NFL: Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Pick: Browns +1.5
Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Saints secured a win in interim coach Darren Rizzi’s debut, but the performance raises red flags for sustainability. The defense gave up a staggering 468 yards and 6.4 yards per play, only to be bailed out by Atlanta’s inefficiency—three missed field goals and a failure to capitalize on eight trips into Saints territory. This isn’t a recipe for continued success, particularly against a far superior Browns defense.

Cleveland’s defense, anchored by Myles Garrett, poses a significantly tougher challenge for Derek Carr and the Saints offense, which thrived last week largely due to facing one of the league's weakest pass rushes. Carr was afforded unusual time in the pocket, hitting on several deep throws, but the Browns are unlikely to allow the same luxury.

Offensively, Cleveland has used its bye week to get healthier and tailor its game plan around Jameis Winston’s strengths. The Browns’ run game should also factor heavily, given New Orleans’ struggles to consistently limit opponents on the ground.

Key Trends

• The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

• The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.

• Cleveland’s defense allows the fewest yards per game (241.8) in the NFL.

Projected Outcome

The Browns’ defensive front will pressure Carr and limit the Saints' offensive rhythm, forcing New Orleans into inefficient drives. Offensively, Cleveland will utilize its balanced attack to control the game flow and exploit the Saints' vulnerable defense. Look for the Browns to win outright in a close, physical contest.

Recommendation

Take the Browns +1.5 with confidence in their defensive dominance and improved offensive efficiency coming out of the bye.

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Steelers +3
Wager: 2%

Pick: Over 48.5

Wager: 2%

Analysis

This AFC North rivalry consistently delivers hard-fought, close games. The Steelers have dominated the recent head-to-head series, winning seven of the last eight matchups, and thrive in this underdog role under Mike Tomlin. Baltimore is dealing with notable defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in their secondary and lack of pass rush, which could be exploited by Pittsburgh’s improved passing efficiency during their four-game win streak.

The Ravens enter this game with the NFL’s top offense in total yards (440 YPG) and rushing (182 YPG), but their defense is a glaring weakness, ranking 27th in yards allowed (367 YPG) and dead last against the pass (294 YPG). Pittsburgh’s ability to control time of possession and capitalize on Baltimore’s defensive flaws will be critical. Additionally, Baltimore’s offensive line has struggled recently, which could be exposed by Pittsburgh’s opportunistic defense and pass rush.

Key Trends

• Steelers are 18-6-3 ATS as home underdogs under Mike Tomlin.

• Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against Baltimore.

• The Ravens allow 30.0 PPG on the road this season compared to 19.0 PPG at home.

• The last seven matchups between these teams have gone under the total, emphasizing defense.

Projected Outcome

This game is expected to be a physical, grind-it-out affair, consistent with the rivalry's history. Baltimore’s offensive efficiency will be challenged by Pittsburgh’s superior game planning and home-field advantage. The Steelers' defense, particularly their ability to generate turnovers and pressure, will keep the Ravens' offense in check, while Pittsburgh’s methodical offense does enough to secure the cover in a tight contest.

Projected Score: Steelers 27 Ravens 25

Recommendation

Back the Steelers +3, trusting their defense, special teams, and Mike Tomlin’s track record as a home underdog to edge out a close game or at least keep it within the number.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Pick: Titans +6.5
Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Vikings have shown flashes of dominance defensively, particularly against weaker offenses, but Tennessee’s competitive home performances and the return of a fully healthy Will Levis provide reason for optimism. Levis impressed in his most recent outing, leading the Titans into scoring range on half of their drives against one of the league’s top defenses. Minnesota, meanwhile, has struggled offensively, scoring no more than 21 points in a game since Week 7, largely due to turnovers and red-zone inefficiencies.

The Vikings' defense may seem imposing on paper, but their offense has kept opponents alive with critical mistakes. Tennessee, at home, has consistently stayed competitive with three of four games decided by one score. This points to another close contest, especially given Minnesota’s recent form and Tennessee’s solid pass defense.

Key Trends

• Titans are 3-1 ATS at home this season, with all three covers coming as underdogs.

• The Vikings have scored 21 points or fewer in four consecutive games.

• Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite.

• Tennessee’s defense allows just 197.7 passing yards per game, ranking 8th in the NFL.

Projected Outcome

This game sets up as a defensive battle, with Tennessee’s pass defense capable of limiting Kirk Cousins’ efficiency. Meanwhile, Will Levis, now fully healthy, provides enough spark to keep the Titans in the game. Expect a low-scoring affair, with Minnesota narrowly escaping but failing to cover the spread.

Projected Score: Vikings 20, Titans 17

Recommendation

Take the Titans +6.5 at home, as this is too many points for a Vikings team struggling to find offensive consistency. Tennessee's solid home form and improved quarterback play should keep this matchup close.

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Pick: Colts +4
Wager: 2%

Analysis

The return of Anthony Richardson gives the Colts offense a much-needed boost in both potential and versatility. Richardson’s mobility provides an escape valve against pressure, which could be critical if starting left tackle Bernhard Raimann is unavailable. While the Colts’ offensive line isn’t at full strength, their rushing attack and Richardson’s ability to extend plays offer a solution against a Jets defense that has yet to perform consistently at its preseason expectations.

The Jets offense, led by Zach Wilson, has been wildly unpredictable, showing flashes of competence but unable to sustain drives reliably. Against a Colts defense that is healthier and more disciplined, the Jets could struggle to find the end zone consistently. The Colts’ defensive front, anchored by DeForest Buckner, has the tools to disrupt the Jets’ offensive rhythm.

Key Trends

• The Colts are 4-2 ATS in their last six road games.

• The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

• New York has scored fewer than 20 points in five of its last seven games.

• Anthony Richardson has averaged 44 rushing yards per game, providing a dynamic threat the Jets have struggled to contain against mobile quarterbacks.

Projected Outcome

This game has the makings of a tight, lower-scoring affair with both teams leaning on their defenses. Richardson’s dual-threat ability gives Indianapolis a key advantage, and their defensive unit is better equipped to capitalize on the Jets’ offensive inconsistency. The Colts’ ability to control the tempo with their rushing attack and neutralize the Jets’ pass rush should keep this game within the spread.

Projected Score: Jets 20, Colts 17

Recommendation

Take the Colts +4, as the line offers value in what projects to be a close contest. The Jets haven’t demonstrated enough offensive firepower to justify being more than field-goal favorites.

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos

Pick: Broncos -2
Wager: 4%

Analysis

This matchup sets up favorably for the Broncos, who hold a clear advantage in several key metrics and face a Falcons team that hasn’t been tested by an elite defense in recent weeks. Atlanta’s -1.1 sack differential ranks near the bottom of the league, while Denver’s +1.8 leads the NFL. The Broncos’ ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks should create issues for Kirk Cousins, who has struggled against blitz-heavy defenses and is dealing with multiple injuries.

Denver’s defensive metrics, including net yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and red-zone efficiency, all suggest they can control this game. Furthermore, the Broncos’ strength in special teams gives them a hidden edge that could tip the scales. After tough but competitive losses to Baltimore and Kansas City, Denver is poised to rebound at home, where their physical style of play is amplified by the altitude and their defensive prowess.

Key Trends

• The Broncos are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games.

• Denver has allowed the third-fewest net yards per pass attempt in the league this season.

• Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in its last three road games against teams with a winning record at home.

• Teams with a sack differential greater than 2.0 in games with spreads under three points are covering 70% of the time historically.

Projected Outcome

Denver’s ability to generate pressure and control tempo on both sides of the ball should give them the upper hand. Atlanta’s defense, particularly its pass rush, is not built to handle an efficient, albeit unspectacular, Broncos offense. Expect Denver to capitalize on Atlanta’s deficiencies and protect their home field heading into the Falcons' bye week.

Projected Score: Broncos 24, Falcons 17

Recommendation

Take the Broncos -2. Denver’s defensive and special teams superiority, coupled with the Falcons’ road struggles and injury concerns, make this a strong play. Move quickly before the line potentially creeps toward -3.

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills -2
Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs may be undefeated, but their narrow victories highlight vulnerabilities that the Buffalo Bills are well-equipped to exploit. The Chiefs have frequently played from behind, with a shaky offensive line forcing Patrick Mahomes to scramble and adapt more than desired. Kansas City's reliance on close games makes them susceptible to a team like Buffalo, which boasts one of the NFL's best point differentials and thrives in high-stakes matchups.

Buffalo’s home-field advantage is significant, with the Bills losing outright in just two of their last 24 home games. Josh Allen matches up well against Mahomes and has the weapons to exploit a Kansas City defense that, while improved, has yet to face an offense as dynamic as Buffalo’s. The absence of kicker Harrison Butker for Kansas City further compounds the potential for missed opportunities in a game that could come down to key moments.

Key Trends

• The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.

• The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.

• Buffalo leads the league in points scored at home, averaging 32.5 per game.

• Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 14 times in the past five games, a troubling trend against Buffalo’s pass rush.

Projected Outcome

Buffalo’s balanced offense and physical defense should dictate the game’s pace. While Mahomes and the Chiefs are resilient, the Bills’ superior efficiency on both sides of the ball positions them to control the game and force Kansas City into uncomfortable scenarios. Josh Allen’s ability to stretch the field combined with Buffalo’s red-zone efficiency will make the difference.

Projected Score: Bills 31, Chiefs 24

Recommendation

Bet on the Bills -2. Buffalo’s home dominance, coupled with Kansas City’s vulnerability in close games and key injuries, makes this a strong play. This line offers value before the market adjusts closer to kickoff.

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Bengals +1.5
Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Los Angeles Chargers' six victories this season are deceptive, given the caliber of opposing quarterbacks they've faced. None of their wins have come against a top-tier quarterback or team with playoff aspirations, which casts doubt on their ability to handle the challenge posed by Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati's record is misleading as well; their three losses have come against elite competition (Baltimore and Kansas City) and by razor-thin margins. The Bengals have shown resilience despite setbacks, particularly with the lethal connection between Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, a duo the Chargers' inconsistent defense will likely struggle to contain.

Los Angeles' offensive inconsistencies also stand out, as they've averaged just 11.7 points per game in their three losses this season. Cincinnati's defense, which ranks in the top half of the league in limiting explosive plays, will look to capitalize on a Chargers offense that has struggled against formidable opponents.

Key Trends

• The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

• The Chargers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.

• Cincinnati has lost three games by a combined five points, indicating competitiveness in close matchups.

• Joe Burrow is 7-2 ATS as an underdog of three points or fewer.

Projected Outcome

Cincinnati's offense will find success exploiting Los Angeles' defensive lapses, particularly with Burrow targeting Chase and Tee Higgins in mismatches against the Chargers' secondary. On the other side, Justin Herbert may find himself under pressure from Cincinnati’s improving pass rush, limiting the Chargers’ scoring opportunities.

The Bengals are simply the more battle-tested team in this matchup and should thrive in a close game scenario where they've consistently competed against better competition.

Projected Score: Bengals 27, Chargers 23

Recommendation

Take the Bengals +1.5. Cincinnati is poised to capitalize on the Chargers' weaknesses and reignite their playoff hopes with a hard-fought road victory.