BrownBagBets’ Top Plays for Tonight’s MLB Slate

MLB: Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles

High Over Trend for Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are the best over team in baseball, hitting the over in 67 of their 119 games, which is over 60%. Their ability to generate runs is well-documented, and despite occasional inconsistencies at the plate, their overall offensive production supports high-scoring games.

Nationals’ Contribution and Recent Performance

The Washington Nationals have been contributing to overs recently, scoring four or five runs in eight of their last nine games. This trend aligns with their recent scoring capability, which should complement Baltimore’s potent lineup.

Pitching Matchup Favoring the Over

Both Trevor Rogers and Jake Irvin have contributed to overs in their last three starts. Irvin, in particular, has been hit hard recently, allowing five runs and four runs in his last two outings. This should further support the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Bet: Over 9 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Given the Orioles’ strong over trend, the Nationals’ recent scoring, and the current pitching conditions, betting on the total to exceed 9 runs offers good value. Place a 3% wager on the over for this matchup.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies’ Bounce-Back Opportunity

The Philadelphia Phillies are poised for a strong rebound after a disappointing weekend series against the Diamondbacks. Facing the struggling Marlins presents a prime opportunity for a decisive win. Despite Taijuan Walker’s return after being sidelined since June 23 due to right index finger inflammation, the Phillies are expected to deliver a strong performance. Walker’s return gives Philadelphia a chance to reassert itself.

Marlins’ Rookie Challenge

Rookie Valente Bellozo, who has been solid in his four starts, faces a significant challenge against the Phillies’ potent lineup. The disparity in lineup strength will test Bellozo, making this matchup particularly difficult for the Marlins.

Bet: Phillies -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 3%

Given the Phillies’ need for a bounce-back win and the advantage of facing the Marlins, betting on Philadelphia to win by more than 1.5 runs is a promising option. Place a 3% wager on the Phillies to cover the spread and secure a decisive victory.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Cardinals’ Recent Struggles and Pitching Issues

The St. Louis Cardinals are struggling, particularly on the mound, with Erik Fedde having a rough transition from the White Sox. Fedde has allowed 6 earned runs over 2 starts (10 innings) since joining the Cardinals. Additionally, St. Louis has been poor defensively, giving up 67 runs over their last 11 games and being held to 4 runs or fewer in 8 of those contests. This ongoing struggle has left them fading in the standings, with a 4-8 record over their last 12 games.

Reds’ Strong Performance and Greene’s Dominance

In contrast, the Cincinnati Reds have been thriving, especially with Hunter Greene’s recent performances. Greene has been exceptional, boasting a 1.03 ERA over his last 7 starts. The Reds have won 4 of Greene’s last 5 starts, with victories by scores of 8-1, 4-1, 6-4, and 10-4. This dominant form is supported by a solid run differential and a strong showing against teams with similar or better records.

Bet: Reds -1.5 @ +150 / Wager: 3%

Given the Reds’ recent form, Hunter Greene’s dominance, and the Cardinals’ struggles, a bet on Cincinnati to win by more than 1.5 runs offers good value. Place a 3% wager on the Reds to cover the spread and secure a convincing victory.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers

Tigers’ Home Advantage and Recent Success

The Detroit Tigers are well-positioned to capitalize on the Mariners’ recent spotlight and leverage their home advantage. With Julio Rodriguez back in the Mariners’ lineup, Seattle is looking to build on their current four-game winning streak. However, George Kirby, the Mariners’ pitcher, struggled against the Tigers just last Wednesday, giving up two home runs after a seven-game streak without allowing any.

Mariners’ Pitching Vulnerability

George Kirby’s recent performance against the Tigers highlights a potential vulnerability that Detroit can exploit. Given Kirby’s past issues in this matchup and the Tigers’ ability to hit home runs against him, the odds are favorable for Detroit to secure a win.

Bet: Tigers ML / Wager: 3%

With the Tigers’ recent success against the Mariners and the opportunity to exploit Kirby’s past struggles, betting on Detroit to win outright presents a solid option. Place a 3% wager on the Tigers to continue their strong play and secure a victory.

MLB: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays

Astros’ Current Form and Key Additions

The Houston Astros are on a roll with six consecutive wins, and this momentum appears to be gaining strength. An important factor in their recent success is the addition of Yusei Kikuchi, who has been impressive with 19 strikeouts in 11 innings over his two starts with the Astros, both resulting in wins. This recent uptick in performance makes Houston a formidable opponent.

Rays’ Recent Struggles and Pitching Concerns

The Tampa Bay Rays are struggling to find their rhythm, as evidenced by their difficulty against Framber Valdez in their previous game. They may face additional challenges if Shane Baz does not improve on his recent performance. Baz had an underwhelming outing at St. Louis last Thursday, allowing four runs and six hits in just 4 1/3 innings. This inconsistency could further hinder the Rays’ chances against a hot Astros team.

Bet: Astros ML / Wager: 5%

Given the Astros’ current form, the impact of their recent additions, and the Rays’ ongoing pitching issues, betting on Houston to win outright is a strong play. Place a 5% wager on the Astros to continue their winning streak and secure another victory.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox

Red Sox’s Over Trend and Fenway Park Conditions

The Boston Red Sox are a strong over team, consistently hitting the over in many of their games. Fenway Park, known for its hitter-friendly conditions, is likely to amplify offensive production. This, coupled with the Red Sox’s recent scoring patterns, sets the stage for a high-scoring game.

Pitching Issues Favoring the Over

Both starting pitchers present vulnerabilities that could lead to a high total. Kutter Crawford has struggled with home runs, maintaining a 5.40 ERA over his last 15 starts, and was notably hit hard by the Rangers in a previous outing (5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings). Similarly, Jose Urena has been ineffective, with a 6.53 ERA over his last seven starts and a poor showing against Boston earlier this season (7 earned runs in 4 innings).

Recent Offensive Trends

The Rangers recently engaged in a slugfest in the Bronx, highlighting their ability to produce runs. The combined offensive capabilities of these teams further support the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Bet: Over 9.5 / Wager: 3%

Given the Red Sox’s tendency to hit the over, the pitcher struggles, and the hitter-friendly conditions at Fenway, betting on the total to exceed 9.5 runs is a solid choice. Place a 3% wager on the over for this matchup.

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels

Angels’ Recent Struggles and Offensive Issues

The Los Angeles Angels have been struggling lately, including a lackluster performance on Monday where they managed only two hits against Toronto pitching. Despite hitting two home runs, the Angels fell short in a 4-2 loss, which continues a pattern of disappointing results at home this season.

Blue Jays’ Pitching Edge

The Toronto Blue Jays hold a significant advantage on the mound with Kevin Gausman, who is coming off one of his strongest performances of the season, allowing only 2 runs and 3 hits over 8 innings against the Orioles. In contrast, the Angels’ Carson Fulmer, recently transitioned from bullpen duty, may struggle against a potent Blue Jays lineup.

Bet: Blue Jays ML / Wager: 5%

Given the Angels’ recent offensive struggles and Gausman’s solid form, betting on the Blue Jays to win outright is a strong choice. Place a 5% wager on the Blue Jays to secure the victory.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks’ Ongoing Success and Recent Additions

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been on a remarkable run, with a 42-21 record since June 1. They are firmly in the NL wild card race and closing in on the Dodgers in the NL West. The addition of Eduardo Rodriguez, recently activated and securing a win in his first start against Cleveland, adds depth to their pitching staff.

Rockies’ Struggles and Pitching Concerns

The Colorado Rockies are facing a challenging season, heading towards 100 losses. Austin Gomber, who had a standout performance with a 0.68 ERA in May, has since struggled significantly, posting a 7.01 ERA over his last twelve starts. This poor form exacerbates the Rockies’ difficulties and presents an opportunity for the Diamondbacks.

Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 5%

With the Diamondbacks’ strong form, recent successful additions, and the Rockies’ ongoing struggles, betting on Arizona to win by more than 1.5 runs offers solid value. Place a 5% wager on the Diamondbacks to cover the spread and secure a convincing victory.