Tax Day Triumphs: Capitalizing on MLB and NHL Picks for Continuous Gain

On this Tax Day, April 15th, a day often met with trepidation, we at BrownBagBets offer a reprieve through the joy of another winning day. As many tally their dues, we celebrate accruing a 9% gain, infusing our bankroll with a welcomed boost. The final day of the NBA regular season didn’t just pass us by; it carried us triumphantly across the finish line with strategic plays that paid off handsomely.

Today’s betting landscape may seem quieter in comparison, with the pause in NBA action, but the MLB steps up to the plate with a full roster of games, each presenting unique opportunities for those who know where to look. And let’s not overlook the NHL, where the glint of the ice holds potential wins that we’re keen to explore.

As we await the excitement of the NBA play-in playoffs, we embrace the steadiness of today’s available bets. It’s a day to apply the same meticulous analysis and strategic rigor that have served us well so far, ensuring that our trajectory continues upward. So let’s make Tax Day a day of gains in more ways than one, capitalizing on the offerings of MLB and NHL to keep our winning streak alive.

English Premier League: Everton FC at Chelsea FC

Pick: Under 3.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Pick: Everton +0.5 @ +120 / Wager: 1%

Pick: Cole Palmer Over 0.5 Goals Scored @ +125 / Wager: 1%

Pick: Chelsea over 6.5 Corners @ +105 / Wager: 1%

Chelsea’s Attacking Nuances and Statistical Overview: Chelsea, despite being awarded the most penalties in the Premier League this season, exhibits inflated attacking statistics that don’t completely reflect their gameplay. Ranking only sixth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, and lower in other offensive metrics like shots and passes into the box, indicates a reliance on transitions for creating chances. This reliance becomes problematic against teams like Everton that defend deep, highlighting Chelsea’s inconsistency in attack, especially noted in their recent low xG against Sheffield United.

Everton’s Defensive Solidity: Everton, on the other hand, has shown robust defensive performances, ranking fourth-best in the league once adjusting for non-penalty expected goals against. However, their offensive struggles, highlighted by poor finishing and declining shot quality, suggest difficulties in scoring, which is reinforced by their recent narrow victory against Burnley.

Match Dynamics and Player Focus: Cole Palmer’s recent form for Chelsea—scoring seven goals in his last five matches—shows promise in breaking down tough defenses. His contributions could be critical in this matchup. Additionally, Chelsea’s ability to earn corners has been notable, aligning with Everton’s tendency to concede them in recent away matches, which supports the prediction of Chelsea achieving more than 6.5 corners.

Strategic and Tactical Considerations: With Everton sitting just above the relegation zone, a conservative approach could be anticipated, possibly resulting in less offensive risk-taking and more defensive posturing. This scenario likely benefits Chelsea in terms of possession and opportunities to create chances from set-pieces and corners. However, the overall defensive strategies from both teams support a prediction of fewer than 3.5 goals for this encounter, reflecting both Chelsea’s difficulty in converting play into goals against staunch defenses and Everton’s pressing need to secure points through cautious play.

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Red Sox ML (-135) / Wager: 2%

Pitching Edge with Crawford

Kutter Crawford of the Boston Red Sox showcases promising metrics that place him in the top 8% of starters, boasting a .135 expected batting average (xBA), .199 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and .199 weighted on-base average (wOBA). His mastery over the sweeper, a pitch he started using more frequently in June of the previous year, has significantly increased in 2024—jumping from a usage rate of 6.7% to 35%. This adjustment has further enhanced his effectiveness on the mound.

Home Advantage and Schedule Benefit

The Red Sox have a logistical and home-field advantage for the early game, which starts at 11:10 am ET. The team benefits from sleeping at home and preparing in their regular routine, while the Cleveland Guardians face the challenge of traveling after a draining extra-innings game. This situation puts additional strain on the Guardians, potentially impacting their performance.

MLB: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 2%

Challenges for the Twins: The Minnesota Twins are facing significant hurdles as they head into this matchup. With their top players sidelined due to injuries, including Byron Buxton, who appears to be struggling physically despite being on the field, their lineup is compromised. The absence of their closer exacerbates the team’s challenges, further diminishing their bullpen strength. Offensively, the Twins are in a tough spot; they are forced to depend on players who have only managed to secure 2 or 3 hits throughout the season due to ongoing roster dilemmas.

Advantages for the Orioles: On the other side, the Baltimore Orioles come into this game with a distinct advantage, particularly with Cole Irvin on the mound. Despite a deceiving record, Irvin’s performance has been solid, showing better underlying metrics than surface statistics suggest. His capability as a left-handed pitcher aligns well with the favorable dimensions of Camden Yards, which historically benefits lefties. This, combined with the Twins’ current form and the Orioles’ home-field advantage, sets the stage for Baltimore to potentially cover the spread comfortably.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Rangers ML (-115) / Wager: 3%

Statistical Edge for the Rangers: The Texas Rangers are favored in this matchup, with our simulations showing a winning probability of 57%, indicating the odds should realistically be closer to -133. This statistical edge underpins a confident selection for the Rangers to come out on top.

Pitching Matchup Analysis: Reese Olson of the Detroit Tigers continues to struggle on the mound, with a barrel rate in early 2024 that mirrors his poor performance from the previous season. This consistent vulnerability, particularly with his slider and 4-seam fastball, poses a significant advantage for the Rangers’ hitters. The Rangers’ lineup is well-equipped to exploit these pitches, enhancing their likelihood of driving in runs and securing a victory.

Tactical Insights: Given the current form and the statistical insights from our simulations, placing a higher wager on the Rangers not only reflects a calculated risk but also aligns with the expected value derived from Olson’s pitching tendencies. This game presents a favorable scenario for the Rangers to capitalize on the identified weaknesses and secure a win.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Kyle Schwarber over 0.5 RBIs (-113) / Wager: 2%

Pick: Charlie Blackmon to hit HR @ +550 / Wager: 1%

Pick: Charlie Blackmon over 0.5 RBIs @ +219 / Wager: 1%

Philadelphia’s Potential Offensive Upsurge: Despite a slow start to the season, the Philadelphia Phillies have a prime opportunity to turn things around against the Colorado Rockies’ pitching this week. The potential for offensive fireworks is heightened by historical player matchups and current environmental factors in Philadelphia. Kyle Schwarber, though not in peak form, is positioned well to rake in RBIs given the frequent traffic on bases, opting for a more probable RBI over a home run.

Charlie Blackmon’s Favorable Matchup: Charlie Blackmon shows promising stats against the Rockies’ current pitcher, Cal Quantrill, with three homers in just eleven at-bats. Additionally, Blackmon’s phenomenal track record at Citizens Bank Park, including a .407 batting average against Aaron Nola and significant historical production (10 HRs and 18 RBIs in 29 games), suggests potential for high-impact plays.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins

Pick: Giants ML (-120) / Wager: 2%

Pick: A.J. Puk under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140) / Wager: 2%

Giants’ Steady Approach at the Plate: The San Francisco Giants are poised to capitalize on their strong contact skills, particularly against Miami Marlins’ starter A.J. Puk, who has struggled in his new role as a starter. The Giants’ lineup is adept at avoiding strikeouts, ranking ninth-lowest in the MLB, which contrasts sharply with Puk’s current form. His inability to sustain deep outings, coupled with control issues—14 walks in just over 10 innings—suggests he may face difficulties achieving high strikeout numbers.

Concerns Over Puk’s Role Transition: Moving A.J. Puk from a closer to a starter is proving problematic for the Marlins, especially at a time when other pitchers are successfully stretching out. His reduced velocity and high walk rate further compound these challenges, making it unlikely for him to record six strikeouts in his upcoming start.

Optimistic Outlook for the Giants: On the other side, Giants’ pitcher Kyle Harrison shows signs of emerging as a quality starter, with increased confidence and effectiveness. Coupled with the Giants’ recent improvement in hitting, the team’s prospects are looking favorable for this matchup, lending solid support to their odds of securing

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Over 8 (-115) / Wager: 2%

Struggles on the Mound: The Los Angeles Angels’ starter, Patrick Sandoval, continues to underwhelm with his approach this season. His tendency to aim for perfect pitches and nibble at the corners rather than utilizing his full velocity has been detrimental. With a concerning 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP across three starts, his performance has been less than stellar, including a previous outing where the Rays managed to score 6 runs against him.

Previous Encounter Insights: In their last encounter, the Rays capitalized on Sandoval’s weaknesses, contributing to the expectation that the total score may rise again. The Angels, despite their pitching woes, have shown they can hit effectively against Tampa Bay’s pitching, as evidenced last Monday when they scored 5 runs on 9 hits against Zach Eflin in just 5 innings.

Potential for High Scoring: Starting pitchers are currently struggling, hinting at another high-scoring game. Given the recent history and the ongoing issues with both teams’ starters, betting on a total over 8 runs offers a promising opportunity for bettors looking for action in this game.

MLB: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Yankees ML (-110) / Wager: 2%

Chris Bassitt’s Struggles: Chris Bassitt of the Toronto Blue Jays is exhibiting signs of vulnerability early in the season, with his exit velocity up nearly 3 mph from last year and a significant increase in his walk rate to 12%. These struggles with control and the added power behind hits against him set the stage for potential challenges against a strong Yankees lineup.

Luis Gil’s Promising Return: On the mound for the New York Yankees, Luis Gil shows promising signs of recovery and improvement since his return from Tommy John surgery. His transformation physically and strategically, particularly the increased focus on his changeup—a pitch that now ranks among his most effective—has yielded impressive stats. With an .102 expected slugging percentage and .224 weighted on-base average in two starts, his performance places him in the top 9% of pitchers.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Pick: Royals -1.5 (-115) / Wager: 3%

Pick: Martin Maldonado under 0.5 hits / Wager: 2%

Pick: Seth Lugo under 5.5 K’s / Wager: 2%

Dominance of the Royals: The Kansas City Royals have emerged as a formidable opponent for the struggling Chicago White Sox, who have only managed a meager 33 runs this season, with a large portion coming from just three games. This statistical insight amplifies the challenges faced by White Sox rookie pitcher Nick Nastrini in his MLB debut, particularly against a Royals team that recently swept them in four games. The Royals’ impressive previous performance, including a 10-1 victory spearheaded by Seth Lugo, strongly supports a wager on the Royals covering the spread.

Martin Maldonado’s Struggles at the Plate: Martin Maldonado’s batting woes make a strong case for betting on him to record under 0.5 hits. The adjustment in betting lines reflects his ongoing difficulties, hinting at an increased awareness of his underperformance among bookmakers.

Seth Lugo’s Strikeout Potential: Regarding Seth Lugo’s strikeouts, his previous encounter with the White Sox yielded only three strikeouts—a figure well below the line set for this game. Given his lack of strikeouts across starts this season and underwhelming swinging strike and zone-contact rates, betting on him to stay under 5.5 strikeouts seems prudent, especially considering the absence of high-strikeout players like Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada from the White Sox lineup.

Game Analysis and Projections: With the White Sox in a notable slump, and their offensive and defensive vulnerabilities laid bare, the Royals are well-positioned to capitalize. The betting insights and player performance metrics underscore a compelling strategy for these picks, emphasizing both team dynamics and individual player analyses.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Joe Musgrove under 6.5 K’s (-157) / Wager: 3%

Pick: Brewers +1.5 (-155) / Wager: 2%

Challenges for Joe: Joe Musgrove’s performance this season raises concerns about his ability to consistently strike out opponents, making the under 6.5 strikeouts wager compelling. Despite some stats suggesting potential improvement, Musgrove’s track record this year—reaching seven strikeouts in only one of his four starts—indicates a struggle in this area. Additionally, facing a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that ranks highly in OPS against right-handers and lower in strikeouts exacerbates the challenge for Musgrove.

Milwaukee’s Advantage: The Brewers, enjoying a strong performance against right-handed pitching, are well-positioned to challenge Musgrove further. This, coupled with the Padres’ potentially fatigued state following a late-night game and travel from Los Angeles, sets up a favorable scenario for Milwaukee. Betting on the Brewers to not lose by more than one run (Brewers +1.5) seems a prudent choice given these factors.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics

Pick: Ross Stripling over 3.5 K’s (-154) / Wager: 3%

Pick: Ross Stripling under 16.5 Total outs (-111) / Wager: 3%

Analyzing Ross Stripling’s Strikeout Potential: Ross Stripling has consistently hit near or above the strikeout line set for this game in his recent starts, registering six, three, and five strikeouts respectively. Despite the underlying metrics not pointing to a high strikeout pitcher, the set line of 3.5 strikeouts presents value. The odds suggest this is a favorable bet given his recent performance and the potential mismatch against the Cardinals’ lineup, which has shown vulnerability.

Stripling’s Performance and Projection: Against the CardinalsStripling’s overall numbers this season mirror those of last year when he was considered a below-average starter. His swinging strike rate has decreased, and his contact rate has risen, indicating he might struggle more than usual. Additionally, the historical success of the Cardinals’ projected lineup against Stripling supports the likelihood of him facing difficulties in extending his time on the mound, making the under on total outs a sensible choice.

Game Context and Stripling’s Outlook: The combination of Stripling’s pitching style and the Cardinals’ potential for positive regression (improvement) in their batting indicates a challenging game for Stripling. Although he might secure more than 3.5 strikeouts, achieving a high number of innings pitched appears less likely due to his performance trends and the Cardinals’ hitting capabilities. This strategic bet accounts for his ability to achieve a few strikeouts early, even if he cannot sustain longer innings.

NHL: Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins

Pick: Penguins ML / Wager: 2%

Playoff Implications and Team Motivation: The Pittsburgh Penguins face a critical situation requiring wins in their final games to keep their playoff hopes alive. This urgency contrasts sharply with the Nashville Predators, who have already secured their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Given this scenario, the Predators might opt to rest key players in this “meaningless” game for them, reducing their competitive edge.

Strategic Betting Insight: The differential in motivation levels between the two teams significantly impacts the dynamics of the game. Pittsburgh, needing a victory, is likely to play with greater intensity and commitment, making them a more attractive betting choice despite Nashville’s overall stronger season performance. This strategic context underlines why backing the Penguins on the moneyline is a prudent move, especially given the potential for Nashville to rotate their squad and conserve energy for the playoffs.

NHL: Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

Pick: Sabres ML @ +143 / Wager: 2%

Assessing Team Motivations and Current Form: The Tampa Bay Lightning, having already secured the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, appear to be navigating the final games of the regular season with less urgency, evidenced by recent performances and losses. This lack of spark, combined with a focus on preparing for the playoffs, might see them not operating at full intensity.

Buffalo’s Performance and Goalie Matchup: Conversely, the Buffalo Sabres, although not headed for the playoffs, have been playing with commendable vigor and consistency since Christmas. Their recent performance, including a narrow overtime loss to the Florida Panthers, indicates a team still fighting for every game. Notably, Buffalo’s goalie, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, has been particularly effective, saving 162 of 176 shots this month, sporting a save percentage of .920. His form could be crucial against the Lightning, especially with Tampa Bay giving Andrei Vasilevskiy a tune-up game before the playoffs, suggesting they might be testing rather than pushing for peak performance.

Game Dynamics and Betting Insight: Given the contrasting motivations and the current form of the goaltenders, betting on the Sabres to win on the moneyline presents a value opportunity. Despite Tampa Bay’s higher seeding and postseason ambitions, Buffalo’s determination and strong goalie play position them as a potential upset pick, especially considering Tampa’s recent lackadaisical approach.