On the Cusp of Sweet 16: Sustaining the Winning Streak with BrownBagBets

The Sweet 16: a landmark etched not just on the bracket, but in the dreams of every team that steps onto the court during March Madness. As we pivot to the next round, it’s not just about advancing—it’s about the palpable, pulsing dream of making it to that revered list. Teams like Oakland, fresh off their first-round upset, are no longer just participants; they’re contenders, their eyes gleaming with the possibility of dancing even further in this tournament of giants.

Yesterday, we at BrownBagBets rode the wave of victory, our strategy and insight culminating in a series of wins that came alive over the last stretch of 10 picks. Each victory was a brushstroke on the canvas of our collective ambition, painting a day of profit and promise. Today, we carry forward that momentum, the adrenaline of success still coursing through our veins, as we stand on the threshold of another day filled with potential.

Let’s stride into today’s matchups with the same dedication and precision that marked our wins yesterday. With every dribble and free throw, with every upset and triumph, we are reminded that the heart of this competition beats to the rhythm of dreams—one win away from the Sweet 16, one win away from etching a name into the annals of March lore. Join us as we continue to craft our narrative of success, aligning our picks with the pulse of possibility.

Stay with BrownBagBets, where we don’t just follow the tournament—we feel it, we live it, we learn from it. Let’s keep this winning streak going, for the beauty of March Madness lies not only in the victory but in the shared journey towards it.

NCAA Basketball: Dayton vs Arizona

Pick: Dayton +9 / Wager: 2%

Dayton enters this matchup against Arizona as a notable underdog, but with a compelling set of strengths that could trouble the Wildcats. The Flyers’ deliberate pace and efficiency in transition defense place them among the best in the nation, directly challenging Arizona’s preferred fast and loose playstyle. While concerns about Arizona’s imposing frontcourt size are valid, Dayton’s tactical approach aims to mitigate this through controlled possession and exploiting weaknesses in Arizona’s perimeter defense. The Flyers’ ability to generate and capitalize on open three-point opportunities could be the key to not just staying in the game but also covering the spread. Our analysis leads us to believe that the nine-point spread might be generous, with a closer contest anticipated based on both teams’ dynamics and Dayton’s potential to disrupt Arizona’s rhythm.

NCAA Basketball: Kansas vs Gonzaga

Pick: Gonzaga -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Gonzaga vs. Kansas presents a fascinating clash where recent form and depth could tip the scales in the Bulldogs’ favor. Samford previously exposed some vulnerabilities in Kansas, especially in the latter half, showcasing a potential blueprint for Gonzaga. With the Jayhawks potentially feeling the effects of a grueling first-round match and dealing with key injuries, notably Kevin McCullar Jr.‘s absence, their resilience will be under scrutiny. Gonzaga, on the other hand, arrives with momentum, peaking at the crucial tail end of the season. The geographical advantage and deeper roster could provide the Bulldogs with the upper hand they need to control the game’s pace and enforce their playstyle. Considering Kansas’ struggle to rally from behind, Gonzaga’s ability to take an early lead could be decisive. All signs point toward the Zags not just securing a win but also covering the spread, making a strong case for their advancement to the Sweet 16.

NCAA Basketball: Michigan State vs North Carolina (UNC)

Pick: UNC -4 / Wager: 3%

Facing off against Michigan State, North Carolina benefits from a blend of athleticism, skill, and a strategic geographic advantage that’s not fully accounted for in the spread. The Spartans, while respected for their physical play, especially in Big Ten matchups, may find their style less effective in the broader NCAA Tournament context, particularly against a team with the caliber of North Carolina. The Tar Heels’ proximity to Chapel Hill affords them a de facto home-court advantage in Charlotte, a factor that historically boosts their performance significantly in NCAA Tournament games within North Carolina. This local support, combined with the team’s impressive record against higher-seeded opponents and their successful history against Michigan State, positions them well for not just a win, but a cover. Considering the disparity in season records and the Tar Heels’ remarkable NCAA track record in their home state, the case for North Carolina covering the spread is strong, especially when adjusting for the unquantified home-court advantage.

NCAA Basketball: 2 Team ML Parlay

Pick: Gonzaga ML + UNC ML @ +134 / Wager: 1%

NCAA Basketball: Washington State vs Iowa State

Pick: Washington State + 6.5 / Wager: 2%

In the upcoming matchup, Washington State brings a compelling blend of strategy and skill, particularly in the paint with Isaac Jones leading the charge. His dominance inside, coupled with the scoring abilities of guards Myles Rice and Jaylen Wells, forms a robust core that has proven effective, even against top-tier teams like Arizona. Washington State’s record as an underdog underscores their resilience and capacity to outperform expectations. On the other side, Iowa State’s performance, while solid, hasn’t been significantly bolstered by their Big 12 experiences in the tournament’s early stages. The Cougars’ success against high-caliber opponents and their recent track record in underdog positions suggest a readiness to leverage their interior strength and offensive versatility. This game could very well hinge on Washington State’s ability to maintain their defensive integrity while capitalizing on offensive opportunities, especially from their key players in critical moments.

NCAA Basketball: Oakland vs North Carolina State (NC State)

Pick: NC State -6 / Wager: 2%

NC State’s transition from underdog to favorite adds an intriguing dynamic to their next matchup. Their six-game winning streak, highlighted by an offense that isn’t overly reliant on three-pointers, showcases a team peaking at the right time. The Wolfpack’s ability to control the game inside, thanks to D.J. Burns, means they’re not dependent on the perimeter game to score. This approach will test Oakland’s defense, particularly against players like Jack Gohlke, whose standout performance against Kentucky might be harder to replicate against NC State’s robust interior defense. The Wolfpack’s recent performances, coupled with their strategic avoidance of the three-point trap, positions them as a formidable challenge for Oakland, underlining the notion that genuine basketball prowess often transcends mere shooting from deep. This game represents not just a test of Oakland’s ability to adapt but also NC State’s capacity to maintain their momentum under the weight of expectations.

NCAA Basketball: Oregon vs Creighton

Pick: Oregon +5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Oregon ML @ +178 / Wager: 1%

Facing a former employer in Dana Altman, Oregon’s Ducks are poised for an intriguing second-round clash with Creighton. The fundamentals tilt in favor of Oregon, especially with their towering presence, N’Faly Dante, who’s been a force of nature, scoring with remarkable efficiency and dominating the paint in recent games. Oregon’s guard, Jermaine Couisnard, brings added firepower, having exploded against South Carolina for a jaw-dropping 40 points. Creighton’s slight disadvantage in quickness could be further exploited by an Oregon team that has found a new gear since the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals. Historical late-season surges under Altman’s guidance could be a factor here, with the Ducks looking more formidable with Dante’s return, offering a more balanced and strategically complex challenge for opponents. Riding the wave of a five-game winning streak, Oregon embodies the kind of momentum that’s precious in March. With no distinct advantages for Creighton in terms of venue or environmental factors, Oregon not only has a fighting chance to emerge victorious but could do so without needing to deliver a flawless performance. This matchup not only tests Creighton’s resilience but also presents Oregon with a golden opportunity to assert its renewed strength on a neutral stage.​

NCAA Basketball: Duquense vs Illinois

Pick: Duquense +10 / Wager: 2%

Duquesne’s impressive run, culminating in a victory over a seasoned BYU team, sets the stage for a confidence-rich matchup against Illinois. The Fighting Illini, led by the electric Terrence Shannon, present a formidable challenge with their pace and dynamism. However, Illinois’ depth concerns, particularly in the context of potential foul trouble, could open up vulnerabilities that the Dukes are well-positioned to exploit. With a streak of nine straight wins and a robust 10-2 ATS record in their last 12, Duquesne’s consistent ability to not just cover but exceed expectations speaks volumes about their readiness for this challenge. Their recent performance against Morehead State, where they managed to keep the pressure on Illinois well into the game, suggests Duquesne has the tools and the momentum to potentially upset or, at the very least, seriously challenge Illinois. This matchup is not just a test of Illinois’ resilience and depth but also an opportunity for Duquesne to assert themselves as legitimate contenders, capable of turning the tide in high-stakes games.

NBA: Brooklyn Nets at New York Knickerbockers

Pick: Under 204.5 / Wager: 1%

Pick: Knicks -7.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Josh Hart under 27.5 Pts + Rebs + Assists / Wager: 2%

For Saturday’s early tip-off at Madison Square Garden, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks, and we’ve got our eyes on a trio of plays that could hold the key to unlocking some value.

First up, let’s talk totals. We’re leaning towards an under 204.5 play here, putting 1% on the line. It’s a bit of a tightrope walk, given the Knicks’ ability to explode offensively, especially with Jalen Brunson firing on all cylinders lately. However, the Nets have been a bit disjointed, losing their rhythm in recent outings. Combine that with the early start time, which sometimes throws off players’ routines, and we might just see a game that doesn’t hit those high-scoring heights.

Speaking of the Knicks, we’re backing them to cover the -7.5 spread with a 2% wager. The recent hiccup in Denver aside, this Knicks team has shown it can take on the heavyweights and come out swinging. With Brunson leading the charge and the team finding ways to win even without OG Anunoby, expect them to capitalize on a Nets team that’s been struggling to find its footing under Kevin Ollie’s watch.

Lastly, Josh Hart’s been a revelation for the Knicks, doing a bit of everything and logging heavy minutes. But with a line set at under 27.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined, and a 2% stake, we see value. Hart’s marathon minutes are likely to ease back with the team returning to full strength, and as impressive as he’s been, expecting him to keep up this Herculean effort every night might be a stretch. Keep an eye on his usage, but we’re betting on a slight dip in his box score impact for this matchup.

It’s shaping up to be an enthralling showdown at the Garden, with plenty of narratives in play. Can the Knicks bounce back? Will the Nets find a way to stop the rot? And just how much magic does Jalen Brunson have left in his bag? Time will tell, but for now, these are the plays we’re making.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic

Pick: Magic -2.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Domantas Sabonis over 13.5 rebounds / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jalen Suggs under 18.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 3%

The Orlando Magic hosting the Sacramento Kings presents a prime opportunity to capitalize on the Magic’s home-court advantage, which has been underappreciated by the markets lately. We’re placing a 2% wager on the Magic to cover the -2.5 spread. Orlando’s record at home is nothing short of remarkable, boasting a 10-2 ATS in their last 12, with an undeniable knack for not just winning but covering with room to spare. This, combined with the Kings’ recent inconsistency and visible fatigue, makes the Magic the play here. Orlando’s incredible 40-17 ATS record after a day off further cements our confidence in this pick.

Turning our focus to individual performances, Domantas Sabonis stands out with his rebounding prowess. With a 2% stake on Sabonis to go over 13.5 rebounds, we’re banking on his exceptional form to continue. Sabonis has been a rebounding machine, consistently hitting this mark in recent games, and given his performance in their last meeting, we’re confident in his ability to dominate the boards once again.

Lastly, we’re eyeing Jalen Suggs for an under 18.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined with a 3% wager. While Suggs contributes significantly beyond what’s reflected in the box score, his statistical output may not reach this threshold. The Magic’s deep rotation and Suggs’ defensive duties, coupled with the Kings’ defensive stance against opposing guards, suggest a quieter night for him statistically.

Orlando’s underrated home form, coupled with individual matchups that favor our picks, shapes this game as a compelling betting landscape. We’re leaning into these insights for potentially profitable outcomes.

NBA: Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Under 214 / Wager: 1%

Pick: Miles Bridges over 32.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 3%

The Charlotte Hornets visiting the Atlanta Hawks brings a particular set of betting dynamics into play, highlighted by our picks for the game. Starting with the total points, we’re going under 214 with a 1% wager. This reflects an anticipation of a game that may not be as high-scoring as some might expect, given both teams’ recent performances and defensive adjustments, particularly from the Hawks who have tightened up defensively in the latter half of the season.

The spotlight then shifts to Miles Bridges, a pivotal figure in the Hornets’ offensive strategy. Given his substantial role, we’re placing a 3% wager on Bridges to surpass 32.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. Bridges has been nothing short of instrumental for Charlotte, taking nearly 20 shots per game and clocking in around 40 minutes on the floor. Against a Hawks team that, while improved defensively, still presents a favorable matchup for a player of Bridges’ caliber, this bet banks on his continued dominance as the primary offensive weapon for the Hornets.

This game presents a nuanced betting landscape, with the under suggesting a tighter, perhaps more defensively oriented contest than expected. Meanwhile, Bridges’ outsized role and matchup advantage position him as a key figure to potentially exceed his statistical averages, underscoring our strategic approach to these picks.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls

Pick: Celtics -7 / Wager: 2%

Facing off against the Chicago Bulls, the Boston Celtics come in with a significant advantage, despite this being the second game of a back-to-back. Key players like Porzingis, who only logged 26 minutes the previous night, and Tatum, expected back in action, alongside Hauser’s return and sharpshooting, solidify the Celtics’ formidable lineup. Boston’s impressive road performance post-All-Star Game, leading the NBA with a +12.3 margin, starkly contrasts with Chicago’s home struggles, marked by a -6.5 margin since the All-Star break.

The Celtics have dominated recent matchups, including a 17-point victory over the Bulls just a month ago, contributing to their current 5-0 ATS streak with significant cover margins. In contrast, the Bulls have been faltering, evident in their 1-4 ATS record in their last five games and a disappointing 3-8 ATS in their recent home games. Boston’s depth and scoring versatility are expected to overwhelm the Bulls, suggesting the spread could widen even further, especially with confirmation of Tatum’s participation. A wager of 2% on the Celtics to cover the -7 spread is a strategic play, banking on Boston’s comprehensive strengths to dictate the game’s outcome.