BounceBack University: Welcome Back to Campus Kids!!

Hey there, BrownBagBets family!

Welcome to what I like to call “BounceBack University” – the place where we turn yesterday’s fumbles into today’s touchdowns. Now, let’s be real: last night was… well, let’s just say it was like watching your favorite rom-com and realizing halfway through that you accidentally started watching a horror movie. Yep, our picks didn’t just miss the mark; they took a scenic route to nowhere!

But hey, that’s the game, right? One day you’re the statue, and the next day, you’re the pigeon. And yesterday, we were definitely not the statue.

So, here we are, dusting off our crystal balls (which, by the way, might need a software update or something), ready to dive back into the fray. Because if there’s one thing we know at BrownBagBets, it’s that every day is a new opportunity to outsmart the odds.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s like making the perfect sandwich – it takes time, patience, and sometimes you have to try a few different sauces before you find the one that makes your taste buds sing.

So, grab your notebooks, sports fans, because class is in session at BounceBack U. We’ve got some fresh picks, a sprinkle of hope, and a dash of that never-say-die spirit. Let’s show the betting world what we’re made of!

And remember, the first rule of BounceBack University: When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade – then you find someone whose life gave them vodka, and you throw a party. Let’s get those wins back and have some fun while we’re at it! 🎉🍋📈⬤

EPL: Luton Town @ Newcastle

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Tactical Shifts and Recent Form: Newcastle United, fresh off a convincing 3-1 victory over Aston Villa, aims to extend their winning momentum against Luton Town at St. James’ Park. The Magpies, who had a rough patch in December and early January, seem to have found their rhythm with back-to-back wins. Manager Eddie Howe’s recent tactical adjustments have paid dividends, particularly in their last match. It remains to be seen if these changes will continue to yield positive results against a rejuvenated Luton Town.

Luton Town’s Surprising Win: Luton Town, buoyed by a resounding 4-0 triumph against Brighton, has managed to climb out of the relegation zone. Their previous encounter with Newcastle resulted in a surprising 1-0 victory for the Hatters. However, replicating such a result in the challenging atmosphere of St. James’ Park is a formidable challenge.

Set Piece Prowess and Defensive Vulnerabilities: Both teams have recently excelled in set-piece situations, which could play a pivotal role in this match. Luton Town’s effective strategies, especially in overloading the back post and creating chances from corners, could exploit Newcastle’s weakness in set-piece defense (ranked 18th in xG per set pieces allowed). Conversely, Newcastle has demonstrated proficiency in scoring from set pieces, while Luton Town has shown average defensive capabilities in this area.

Defensive Concerns and Game Dynamics: Despite tactical changes, Newcastle’s defensive woes persist. Since November, they have conceded the most expected goals in the Premier League, indicating ongoing defensive issues. In a match anticipated to be dynamic and transition-focused, both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities could lead to a high-scoring affair.

NCAA Basketball: Arkansas @ LSU

Pick: LSU -5.5 / Wager: 3%

Arkansas’ Internal Struggles: Despite a recent victory over Missouri, caution is advised before jumping on the Arkansas bandwagon. Reports from SEC insiders suggest internal discord within the team, partly attributed to NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) issues. Such internal issues can significantly impact team cohesion and performance, making Arkansas a less reliable bet.

LSU’s Recent Hiccups: LSU has encountered its own set of challenges, losing four of its last five games as the intensity of SEC play increases. However, it’s important to note that their offense remains potent. Their recent loss to a high-scoring Alabama team doesn’t necessarily reflect a decline in their overall capabilities.

Key Players for LSU: The focus shifts to LSU’s dynamic backcourt duo - Jordan Wright (Vanderbilt transfer) and Jalen Cook (Tulane transfer). Despite their subpar performance against Alabama, shooting a combined 8 for 25, these players have the talent and determination to bounce back. Their resolve to improve and contribute significantly to LSU’s offense could be a crucial factor in this matchup.

NCAA Basketball: UCONN @ St. John’s

Pick: UCONN -3 / Wager: 5%

Venue Advantage: The game’s location at Madison Square Garden, just a two-hour train ride from UCONN’s campus in Storrs, is expected to draw a significant number of UCONN fans. This pseudo-home advantage for UCONN could play a crucial role in the game’s dynamics.

St. John’s Disadvantage: St. John’s coach Rick Pitino has expressed concerns about the game not being held at their more familiar home court, Carnesecca Arena. This shift in venue might impact St. John’s comfort and performance levels.

UCONN’s Superiority: UCONN stands out as the stronger team in this matchup. Their overall performance and team dynamics suggest they are well-equipped to not only win but potentially secure a victory with a comfortable margin.

Model Predictions: Analyzing various models, some projections show UCONN winning by as much as 13 points. This significant predicted margin of victory underlines UCONN’s strength and capability to cover the -3 spread easily.

NCAA Basketball: South Carolina @ Georgia

Pick: South Carolina ML @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Underestimation of South Carolina: Despite their impressive performances, South Carolina remains outside the rankings, suggesting a lack of recognition from the oddsmakers. Their recent victory over Tennessee was significant, yet they still await acknowledgment in the form of a top 25 ranking.

Potential Impact of This Game: A win in Athens could solidify South Carolina’s position and possibly earn them a spot in the top 25. However, a loss against Georgia might derail these aspirations, adding extra significance to this matchup.

Georgia’s Recent Struggles: Georgia’s recent performance, particularly their disappointing loss to Alabama where they squandered a late lead, raises questions about their ability to handle pressure situations. This could be a crucial factor in their game against a motivated South Carolina team.

South Carolina’s Key Return: The Gamecocks welcomed back Myles Stute, a vital swingman, from a shoulder injury. His immediate impact, scoring 13 points against Tennessee, highlights his importance to the team and could be a game-changer against Georgia.

South Carolina’s Record as Underdog: With an impressive 8-1 record when labeled as the underdog this season, South Carolina has consistently defied expectations. This trend suggests a resilience and ability to rise to the occasion, making them a compelling pick for this game.

NCAA Basketball: Bradley @ Illinois State

Pick: Under 133.5 / Wager: 3%

Proximity and Conference Implications: Bradley and Illinois State, separated by just 39 miles, are not only geographical rivals but also face significant conference stakes. Bradley, currently in third place, is aiming for a top-four finish to secure a bye in the conference tournament, adding intensity to this matchup.

Illinois State’s Position and Style of Play: Illinois State, only a game away from the fourth spot in the conference, plays a notably slow-paced offense. This style, coupled with their struggles to score effectively, suggests a game with fewer scoring opportunities.

Bradley’s Defensive Strength: Bradley’s strong defensive play is a key factor in this game. Their ability to contain opponents’ scoring aligns with Illinois State’s offensive challenges, further supporting a lower-scoring game.

Model Projections: Analytical models project a total score around 126, significantly lower than the set line of 133.5. This discrepancy indicates a strong likelihood of the game’s total score staying under the set line.

NCAA Basketball: ECU @ Charlotte

Pick: Under 130 / Wager: 3%

Defensive Prowess and Slow Pace: Both East Carolina and Charlotte have established themselves as teams that excel in playing a slower, more defensively focused game. This approach typically results in fewer scoring opportunities and a lower overall game total.

Model Projections and Possession Analysis: Analytical models predict a notably slow game with just 58 possessions. This reduced number of possessions is a critical factor in limiting scoring chances for both teams.

East Carolina’s Defensive Edge: East Carolina’s strength lies in its defense, which could pose significant challenges for Charlotte’s offense. This defensive capability is expected to play a significant role in keeping the game’s total score low.

Charlotte’s Balanced Play: Charlotte, while not excelling in offense, maintains a balanced approach on both ends of the court. Their neutral offensive and defensive capabilities, combined with East Carolina’s defensive strength, further support a low-scoring game.

NCAA Basketball: Florida @ Texas A&M

Pick: Texas A&M / Wager: 3%

Texas A&M’s Late-Season Surge: Historically, Texas A&M has shown a tendency to elevate its performance as the season progresses, particularly under the guidance of Coach Buzz Williams. This pattern of a late-season rally has been a hallmark of Williams’ tenure, suggesting that the Aggies might be gearing up for another push to impress the Selection Committee.

Opportunistic Timing Against Florida: The Aggies face a Florida team coming off an emotionally charged overtime victory against Kentucky. This scenario presents a classic potential for a letdown game for Florida, which Texas A&M could exploit to their advantage.

Wade Taylor IV’s Impressive Form: A key factor in Texas A&M’s potential success is the recent performance of Wade Taylor IV, who has been on a scoring tear, averaging 28 points per game. His offensive prowess could be pivotal in tilting the game in the Aggies’ favor.

Strategic Betting Consideration: The 3% wager on the favorite but at the ML spot reflects a calculated risk, balancing the potential for Texas A&M to capitalize on Florida’s post-victory vulnerability and Taylor IV’s scoring streak against the inherent unpredictability of college basketball outcomes.

NCAA Basketball: Bellarmine @ Queens University

Pick: Bellarmine +5.5 / Wager: 3%

Bellarmine’s Resilience: Despite a challenging season marked by a ten-game losing streak, Bellarmine has shown signs of resurgence with two consecutive wins. This recent uptick in form, especially in a competitive context, suggests that the team is finding its rhythm and cohesion.

Impact of Bash Weiland’s Return: The return of top scorer Bash Weiland, who missed significant time due to injury, has been a major boost for Bellarmine. Weiland’s scoring prowess, evident in his 20+ points in three of his last four games, adds a crucial offensive dimension to the team, enhancing their competitiveness.

Queens University’s Inconsistency: Queens University’s recent form, with only three wins in their last twelve games, raises questions about their reliability as favorites. This inconsistency could be an advantage for a motivated Bellarmine team looking to continue their positive momentum.

NCAA Basketball: #17 Utah State @ San Diego State

Pick: San Diego State -5.5 / Wager: 3%

San Diego State’s Home Advantage: San Diego State returns to their home court, a fortress where they have an undefeated record of 10-0 in straight-up games. Their defensive prowess at home is notable, with opponents averaging only 59.5 points per game, a testament to their solid defensive strategies.

Pace Control: The Aggies may prefer a faster-paced game, but San Diego State is known for controlling the tempo, especially at home. Expect them to slow down the game, playing to their strengths and disrupting Utah State’s rhythm.

Three-Point Shooting: While neither team excels in three-point shooting, there’s a notable difference in Utah State’s defensive vulnerability on the road, where they allow a 34.7% success rate from beyond the arc. This could be an area where San Diego State finds some unexpected success, potentially exploiting this weakness.

Defensive Showdown: The game is likely to be a defensive battle, with San Diego State’s ability to dictate the game’s pace being a crucial factor. Their home record and defensive statistics suggest they have the upper hand, making them a solid pick to cover the 5.5-point spread.

NCAA Basketball: Richmond @ VCU

Pick: Under 135.5 / Wager: 3%

Richmond’s Strong Season: Richmond’s impressive performance this season, leading the Atlantic 10 Conference with an 8-0 record, is a testament to their solid gameplay. Their defensive prowess, combined with an average offense, has been a key factor in their success.

VCU’s Defensive Edge: VCU, currently in 4th place in the conference, is known for its defensive capabilities. Their focus on defense has been a significant aspect of their strategy, contributing to their current standing.

Historical Context: VCU’s dominance in last year’s games against Richmond adds an interesting dynamic to this matchup. However, the rivalry nature of this game often leads to a more cautious and strategic approach from both teams.

Pace and Defensive Focus: Both teams are known for their slower pace of play and emphasis on defense. This style of play typically results in lower-scoring games, making the under a compelling bet.

Recent Trends: VCU’s recent trend of going under in 5 of their last 6 games, combined with Richmond’s 7-4 record for the under in their last 11 games, reinforces the expectation of a low-scoring affair.

NCAA Basketball: #16 Auburn @ Ole Miss

Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 / Wager: 4%

Revenge Factor: Ole Miss, under the guidance of Chris Beard, is gearing up for a rematch against Auburn. Their previous encounter saw Auburn secure a comfortable victory at home. However, Ole Miss has shown resilience and improvement, winning three consecutive games since that loss.

Auburn’s Road Struggles: Auburn’s performance disparity between home and away games is notable. While they boast an impeccable 11-0 record at home, their road games tell a different story, with a less impressive 2-3 record. This inconsistency could be a crucial factor in the upcoming game.

Ole Miss’ Momentum: The recent winning streak of Ole Miss has likely boosted their confidence and team morale. This momentum, coupled with the desire to avenge their previous loss, positions them as a strong contender in this matchup.

Home Advantage for Ole Miss: Playing at home can provide a significant advantage, and for Ole Miss, this could be the edge they need to turn the tables on Auburn. The home crowd support and familiar environment might play a pivotal role.

Betting Strategy: The recommendation to grab the points with Ole Miss at +3.5 reflects a belief in their ability to either win or keep the game close. The wager of 4% indicates a higher level of confidence in Ole Miss capitalizing on Auburn’s road vulnerabilities and their own recent form. #revengefactor

NCAA Basketball: Duke @ UNC

Pick: Under 151.5 / Wager: 3%

Recent Trends: The Duke-North Carolina rivalry has historically been a high-scoring affair, often surpassing the over. However, last year’s matchup in Chapel Hill deviated from this trend, suggesting a potential shift in the dynamic of this classic rivalry.

UNC’s Offensive Evolution: North Carolina has recently undergone significant changes, particularly with Caleb Love moving to Arizona. This transfer seems to have positively impacted UNC’s offense, allowing for a more cohesive and efficient playing style. The integration of transfers Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram has been smooth, complementing RJ Davis’s leadership in orchestrating the offense.

Scoring Surge and Sudden Dip: Prior to their recent stumble against Georgia Tech, UNC had been on a scoring spree, averaging 85 points per game over five games. This offensive prowess, however, did not manifest in their latest game, indicating potential inconsistencies.

NCAA Basketball: Presbyterian @ High Point

Pick: Over 153.5 / Wager: 3%

High Point’s Offensive Prowess: High Point has emerged as a formidable force in the Big South, especially after their recent dominant performance against Longwood. Under the guidance of first-year Head Coach Alan Huss, a former member of Greg McDermott’s Creighton staff, High Point has been showcasing an impressive offensive display.

Key Players and Scoring Stats: The team’s success can be attributed to its talented roster, particularly Duke Miles, a transfer from Troy, who is averaging 19.1 points per game. High Point’s offense ranks 12th nationally, with an average of 85.2 points per game.

Trends in Totals: High Point has consistently surpassed the total points line, with an “over” record in eight of their last nine games. This trend indicates a strong offensive capability and a tendency for high-scoring games.

Presbyterian’s Contribution to the Over Trend: The visiting team, Presbyterian, also contributes to this trend with a 12-6 “over” record. This suggests that their games often end up being high-scoring affairs, further supporting the likelihood of surpassing the 153.5 points total in this matchup.

NCAA Basketball: Wyoming @ UNLV

Pick: Wyoming +9.5 / Wager: 3%

Wyoming’s Recent Surge: Wyoming has been gaining momentum in the Mountain West, showcasing a strong performance with victories in four of their last five games. This recent success includes a convincing road win against Air Force, highlighting their capability to secure victories away from home.

Impactful Transfers: The team’s resurgence can be largely attributed to the addition of two key players from the transfer market. Sam Griffin, formerly of Tulsa, is contributing significantly with an average of 18.1 points per game. Akuel Kot, a standout from Fort Lewis College, is also making a notable impact, averaging 15.5 points per game. Their performances have been central to Wyoming’s recent success.

UNLV’s Performance: While UNLV has also been improving over the past month, the focus here is on Wyoming’s potential to continue their upward trajectory. The Cowboys have shown they can compete effectively, especially on the road.

NCAA Basketball: #5 Tennessee @ #10 Kentucky

Pick: Over 159 / Wager: 3%

Context of the Matchup: This game comes on the heels of surprising upset losses for both teams, with Tennessee falling to South Carolina and Kentucky to Florida. This sets the stage for a high-stakes encounter where both teams will be eager to bounce back and assert their dominance.

Anticipation of a High-Scoring Game: The over/under set just below 160 points presents an intriguing opportunity. Given the offensive capabilities of both teams, especially Kentucky’s recent trend of surpassing scoring expectations, this total seems within reach.

Kentucky’s Scoring Prowess: Kentucky’s impressive 14-3 record for hitting the “over” in recent games indicates a strong offensive output, particularly when playing at Rupp Arena. This trend suggests a likelihood of a high-scoring affair in this matchup.

Tennessee’s Key Player: Dalton Knecht, a transfer from Northern Colorado, has been a significant contributor for Tennessee, averaging 20.1 points per game. His recent form, scoring an average of 32 points in his last six games, will be crucial for Tennessee’s offensive strategy.

NCAA Basketball: Saint Mary’s @ Gonzaga

Pick: Saint Mary’s +4.5 / Wager: 3%

Gonzaga’s Uncharacteristic Season: Gonzaga, known for its dominance in recent years, is experiencing a relatively down season. Despite their historical advantage over Saint Mary’s, winning 10 of the last 12 encounters, this year presents a different scenario, especially in the absence of key player Drew Timme.

Saint Mary’s Defensive Edge: Saint Mary’s has been excelling defensively, limiting opponents to an average of just 59.8 points per game. Their impressive defensive stats, including holding teams to 43.1% shooting from inside the arc, give them a significant advantage.

Rebounding Superiority: The Gaels also have an edge in rebounding, a crucial aspect that could tilt the game in their favor, especially in a matchup that demands strong defensive and rebounding efforts.

Saint Mary’s Offensive Strategy: While their primary focus is on defense, Saint Mary’s also looks to capitalize on offense. Their turnaround this season began with a significant win at Colorado State, showcasing their ability to perform in challenging environments.

Experience and Environment: With a team seasoned in tough games and familiar with the high-pressure environment of playing Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s is well-positioned to make this game much closer than previous meetings, justifying the bet on them with a 4.5 point spread.

NBA: Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Picks: Tyrese Maxey under 6.5 assists / Wager: 4%

Tyrese Maxey under 31.5 points / Wager: 3%

Strategic Betting Approach: This matchup presents a unique opportunity to demonstrate strategic betting. By focusing on two related props for Tyrese Maxey, we can increase our chances of winning. The likelihood of Maxey exceeding both the assist and point thresholds is low, especially considering his recent performance trends and the team dynamics without Joel Embiid.

Maxey’s Role Without Embiid: In Embiid’s absence, Maxey has shifted more towards scoring rather than facilitating. His average of 27.8 points and 5.2 assists in games without Embiid highlights this change in role. His record-breaking 51-point game with only one assist further underscores his focus on scoring over playmaking.

Defensive Challenge from the Nets: The Nets, despite their struggles, have been formidable defensively, particularly against guards. Their low pace of play and strong field goal defense will challenge Maxey, who will likely prioritize scoring over distributing the ball.

Assist Trends and Projections: Maxey’s potential assists drop significantly without Embiid on the floor, aligning with our model’s projection of only 5.3 assists for him in this game. This suggests a strong likelihood of staying under the 6.5 assists line.

Scoring vs. Facilitating: Maxey’s increased scoring responsibility in Embiid’s absence might reduce his focus on creating opportunities for others. This, combined with the Nets’ defensive setup, makes it more likely for Maxey to concentrate on scoring, potentially leading to fewer assists.

Conclusion: Yep, that’s right. . This write up is so good, we are throwing a “conclusion” at you. The dual approach of betting on both under 6.5 assists and under 31.5 points for Maxey offers a strategic edge. While he is expected to lead the 76ers’ offense, the specific dynamics of this game and his role suggest a higher probability of not exceeding these thresholds, especially in assists. This strategy provides a balanced risk with a good chance of success in at least one, if not both, bets.

NBA: Golden State Warriors @ Atlanta Hawks

Picks: Clint Capela over 9.5 Rebounds / Wager: 3%, Andrew Wiggins over 13.5 points / Wager: 3%

Clint Capela’s Rebounding Prowess: The sudden spotlight on Clint Capela’s rebounding potential comes when we had no history of playing it, nor did we find it as an opportunity worth tracking. But then, as we’ve mentioned, the Korean Sharp has returned from the ashes (or whatever the saying is) with a strong endorsement. So we bet it once. Now, on the very next night, he’s heard saying “If the world is going to give us Clint Capela at 9.5 rebs again, we take that *+!#!!” And with that, here we are. There’s also some recent statistics that support this too. But what’s important is the Sharp is back! Let’s keep him here.

Andrew Wiggins’ Resurgence: Andrew Wiggins has been finding his rhythm after a slow start to the season. Averaging 16.5 points per game over his last six games and playing around 34 minutes per game during this period, Wiggins is showing signs of returning to his form as a key player in the Warriors’ title run. His increased playing time, up from a career-low average, is a crucial factor in this uptrend.

Matchup Advantage: Wiggins faces a favorable matchup against the Hawks, known for their higher pace of play and weaker defense. The Hawks’ particular vulnerability to opposing forwards adds an extra layer of opportunity for Wiggins to score beyond his 13.5 points threshold.

NBA: LA Lakers @ NY Knicks

Picks: Donte DiVincenzo over 20.5 points / Wager: 5%, Anthony Davis under 0.5 3pters / Wager: 3%

Anthony Davis’ 3-Point Shooting: The preseason aspirations for Anthony Davis to increase his 3-point attempts have not materialized. Contrary to Coach Darvin Ham’s initial plans, Davis has significantly reduced his 3-point attempts to just 1.2 per game, the lowest since the 2014-15 season. Despite a recent game where he shot 3-for-3 from behind the arc, this was an outlier, as it was his first 3-pointer since January 9th.

Tough Knicks Defense: The Knicks’ formidable defense at Madison Square Garden makes it a challenging venue for any opposing team. With an impressive 18-5 home record and a defensive rating that improves significantly at home, the Knicks have been particularly effective in limiting opponents’ scoring, including from the 3-point line. This defensive prowess makes it unlikely for Davis to attempt, let alone make, a 3-pointer in this matchup.

DiVincenzo’s Scoring Opportunity: Donte DiVincenzo, humorously nicknamed “The Big Ragu” or “White Donte,” finds himself in a favorable position to score over 20.5 points. With key players like Quentin Grimes and Julius Randle out for the Knicks, and uncertainty around OG Anunoby’s participation, DiVincenzo has been stepping up. His recent performances have seen him taking a high volume of shots, with a significant number from the 3-point range. This increased shooting volume, combined with his recent form, positions him well to exceed the 20.5 points mark.