Sunday NFL Picks: Bouncing Back and Aiming High - Week 6 Analysis

Hello, BrownBagBets family! We're back with another exciting slate of NFL games for this Sunday. But before we dive in, let's quickly recap yesterday's NCAAF action. We went 5-6 on our picks, missing both parlays and starting the day 0-3. However, we rallied in the back half of the day and hit our bigger percent bankroll bets. This is the beauty of our system; it's designed to keep us resilient and profitable over the long term. We're still sitting comfortably above 100% of our bankroll, and we're ready to tackle today's NFL matchups.

Also, don't forget that we've already posted our picks for the International Series matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans. Make sure to check that out as it won't be covered in this post.

Now, let's get into today's games!

Game #1: Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins

Pick: Over 47.5, 1 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 4%

Prop Bet: Raheem Mostert over 75 rushing yards | Bankroll Wager: 3%

The weather is set to be a factor in this game, and we're concerned it will wear down the defenses more than the offenses. Miami has been a scoring machine at home, averaging over 50 points per game. Both teams also have defenses that allow an average of 27 or more points per game.

With De'Von Achane out for the Dolphins, Raheem Mostert is poised for a big day. The Panthers' defense has been generous, allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Given the extra touches Mostert is likely to see, we're confident in this prop bet.

Game #2: Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Seahawks +3, 1 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 4%

Prop Bet #1: Noah Fant over 21.5 receiving yards | Bankroll Wager: 3%

Prop Bet #2: Kenneth Walker III over 67.5 rushing yards | Bankroll Wager: 4%

We love the value of Seattle getting points here, especially with Pete Carroll's track record coming off a bye week. The Bengals have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, and the Seahawks excel in areas where the Bengals struggle. Seattle ranks first in yards per rush, while the Bengals' defense is a dismal 30th. Add in the projected wind gusts, and taking the points seems like the smart play.

When it comes to prop bets, the Bengals have shown a weakness against tight ends, making Noah Fant's over 21.5 receiving yards an easy pick. Multiple experts are projecting over 35 yards for Fant, adding to our confidence. Kenneth Walker III has been getting a significant volume of carries, and with the Bengals' rush defense ranking as the second-worst in the league, we're confident in taking the over on his rushing yards.

Game #3: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Colts +4.5, 1 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 3%

We're leaning towards the Colts and the points in this matchup. Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS when laying four points or more, and this game presents a challenging spot for the Jaguars. They're coming back from nearly two weeks in London and are coming off a big win against the Buffalo Bills. Now, they return home to Jacksonville with a slew of injuries. On the other side, Minshew is getting a full week of practice, adding to our confidence in the Colts covering the spread.

Game #4: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Falcons ML, 1 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 3%

We're going with what we consider a sneaky pick here by taking the Falcons on the moneyline. Desmond Ridder has yet to lose a home game, and the Commanders' pass-heavy offense may not be the best approach against this Falcons defense. While Atlanta's defense may not excel at pressuring the QB, they make up for it in almost every other category. We're taking the moneyline to be safe, but this pick feels solid to us.

Game #5: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Pick: Same Game Parlay - Bears +3 and Under 43.5, 1 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 2%

We're going with a same-game parlay for this matchup. Multiple cappers we follow suggest that the Bears could win this one outright, so we see great value in taking them at +3. This becomes an even more attractive bet when you consider that the under is also getting sharp money. The absence of Jefferson for the Vikings makes the Bears' line even more intriguing. We expect Chicago's defense to put some pressure on Cousins.

Additionally, the under triggers a High Winds betting system that has a 57% win rate. This system hits when the average wind speed is between 10 and 50 mph, and the temperature is not below 33 degrees.

Game #6: San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns

Pick: 49ers -9.5, 1 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 6%

This is our largest bet for the day, and for good reason. The 49ers are coming off a dominant performance against the Cowboys last week and appear to be one of the best teams in the league right now. While a trip to Cleveland could be a potential trap game, the loss of Deshaun Watson for the Browns changes that narrative. San Francisco is 4-1 ATS this season, and their stats are even more impressive. They're averaging 34 points per game while allowing just 13. We expect the 49ers to roll in this one.

Game #7: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets

Pick: Eagles -6.5, 4:25 PM ET | Bankroll Wager: 5%

Prop: DeAndre Swift over 66.5 rushing yards | Bankroll Wager: 4%

We see this game as a significant mismatch, and the line of less than a touchdown feels like a steal. The Jets were 8.5-point underdogs when they hosted the Chiefs, and now they're getting less than a touchdown against these undefeated Eagles? We'll gladly take that. Philadelphia is likely to have a lot of possession time, which brings us to our prop bet on DeAndre Swift. The Jets rank 29th in rushing defense, making Swift's over 66.5 rushing yards a solid play.

Game #8: Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams

Prop 1: Cooper Kupp over 85.5 receiving yards | Bankroll Wager: 4%

Prop 2: Puka Nacua over 65.5 receiving yards | Bankroll Wager: 4%

We're focusing on the receiving game for this matchup. The Cardinals have the 26th-ranked passing defense in the league, which spells opportunity for the Rams' receivers. Cooper Kupp's return last week opened up the offense against a much tougher Eagles defense. We expect him to have a big day against the Cardinals. Similarly, Puka Nacua has a favorable matchup, and we like him to go over 65.5 receiving yards.

Game #9: Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick 1: Lions -3 | Bankroll Wager: 5%

Pick 2: Over 42.5 | Bankroll Wager: 3%

Prop: David Montgomery over 78.5 rushing yards | Bankroll Wager: 4%

We're going all-in on the Lions for this matchup. They are 6-0 ATS against winning teams, and the Bucs' defense is still missing key players. This gives us confidence not only in the Lions covering the spread but also in the game going over 42.5 points. David Montgomery has a favorable matchup, especially with Jahmyr Gibbs out again for the Lions. Our projections even show the line should be closer to 5, making us feel even better about these picks.

That wraps up our picks for today's NFL games. Please check back with us before Sunday Night Football as we have our eyes on a couple plays for that one as well! As always, remember to gamble responsibly and let's make some money!