Sunday Bloody Sunday: BrownBagBets Keeps Rolling

Copa America: Ecuador vs Mexico

Pick: Ecuador ML @ +170 / Wager: 3%

Ecuador and Mexico face off in what promises to be a crucial match for both teams in the Copa America group stage. Based on recent performances and historical trends, Ecuador appears to have the upper hand going into this match.

Mexico’s Recent Struggles

Mexico has not been convincing in their recent performances, particularly in the attacking third. El Tri’s 1-0 loss to Venezuela on Wednesday highlighted their inability to capitalize on possession and create meaningful scoring opportunities. Despite dominating possession and outshooting Venezuela, Mexico failed to find the back of the net, raising concerns about their attacking efficiency.

This lack of finishing has been a recurring issue for Mexico, as evidenced by their recent form. Over their last four matches across all competitions, Mexico has conceded eight goals, underscoring defensive vulnerabilities that Ecuador could exploit. Additionally, Mexico’s historical struggles against CONMEBOL opponents further complicate their prospects. El Tri has lost six of their previous seven meetings against CONMEBOL teams, suggesting a pattern of difficulty in these matchups.

Ecuador’s Confidence and Form

Ecuador enters this match with significant momentum, having secured a 3-1 victory over Jamaica. This win showcased Ecuador’s offensive capabilities, with the team recording 24 shots in the match. The Ecuadorians have demonstrated their ability to create and convert scoring opportunities, a crucial factor when facing a Mexican side that has shown defensive frailties.

Furthermore, Ecuador’s historical performance in Copa America group stage finales is noteworthy. They have not lost their final group fixture since 2011, indicating a pattern of strong finishes in the tournament. This historical resilience could provide Ecuador with the confidence needed to secure a win against Mexico.

Euro 2024 (Round of 16): England vs Slovenia

Pick: England -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 4%

Southgate Needs to do Something

England was installed as the favorite to win Euro 2024 after sailing through the qualifying campaign with an unbeaten record. Impressive victories over Italy and Ukraine suggested that the Three Lions could be ready to win their first major trophy since the 1966 World Cup. However, they have now fallen behind France and Germany in the futures betting after an underwhelming start to the tournament. They were fortunate to beat Serbia 1-0 in their opener, and they were also lucky to escape with a draw against Denmark.

England manager Gareth Southgate is now under pressure. He has world-class forwards at his disposal, but he has been unable to turn them into an effective unit at this tournament. Southgate decided to play Trent Alexander-Arnold alongside Declan Rice in midfield against Serbia and Denmark. Alexander-Arnold typically plays at right-back for Liverpool, and he has looked uncomfortable in this new role, while his partnership with Rice appears unbalanced.

It may now be time for Southgate to abandon this experiment. He may decide to play a traditional midfield alongside Rice, as Conor Gallagher, Kobbie Mainoo, and Adam Wharton are all available. Alternatively, Jude Bellingham could drop back into midfield alongside Rice, allowing Phil Foden to occupy his preferred No. 10 role. Southgate could then deploy Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen, or Cole Palmer on the left wing, which may help the attack to click. Either way, change is clearly needed, and we could see a far more impressive performance from England if Southgate shuffles his pack on Tuesday.

Slovenia Winless All-Time

Slovenia has exceeded expectations at this tournament. The sportsbooks made Matjaž Kek's men the favorites to finish bottom of Group C, but they have been very competitive so far. They began their campaign with a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Denmark. The Slovenians had just 32% of the possession in that game, but they defended diligently and looked dangerous on the counterattack.

Slovenia was on the brink of a famous victory over Serbia on Matchday 2, but Luka Jović scored a dramatic equalizer in the sixth minute of injury-time. That goal denied the Slovenians their first-ever win at the European Championship. It was a cruel blow, but the players can take a great deal of encouragement from their battling performance. Once again, they had less than 40% of the possession, but they always carried a threat on the counterattack.

We could see a similar pattern on Tuesday, with England dominating the ball and continuously probing for weaknesses in the Slovenian defense. Slovenia will not go down without a fight, but this is a bad time to be facing England. The Three Lions will be determined to answer their critics, and they could win this game by a comfortable margin if Southgate tweaks his tactics. Captain Harry Kane scored his first goal of the tournament against Denmark, and he could be the man to unlock this stubborn Slovenia defense.

Euro 2024 (Round of 16): Spain vs Georgia

Pick: Spain over 1.5 1st Half Team Total Goals @ +200 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Spain Over 2.5 Team Total Goals @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Both Teams to Score - Yes @ +150 / Wager: 3%

The Round of 16 matchup between Spain and Georgia promises to be an exciting encounter, especially for fans of Spain. La Roja have been the standout team of Euro 2024 so far, showcasing dominance in their group stage matches. They are the only team to have won all three of their group stage games, defeating Italy, Albania, and Croatia without conceding a single goal. Their perfect 3-0 record saw them outscore their opponents by five goals to nil. This formidable performance has set a high bar as they enter the knockout stages against a resilient Georgia side.

Spain's Offensive Firepower

Spain's attacking prowess has been on full display throughout the tournament. They have shown an impressive ability to break down defenses and create numerous scoring opportunities. The key players driving this success include the likes of Ferran Torres, Alvaro Morata, and Dani Olmo, who have been clinical in front of goal.

Their ability to score early and dominate the first half has been a significant factor in their success. Against Italy, they found the back of the net within the first 20 minutes, setting the tone for the rest of the match. This trend is likely to continue against Georgia, a team that has shown vulnerabilities in defense, especially against high-caliber opponents. Betting on Spain to score over 1.5 goals in the first half at +200 provides excellent value given their current form and attacking capabilities.

Additionally, Spain's comprehensive victories in the group stage indicate that scoring three or more goals in a match is well within their reach. With their attacking midfielders and forwards firing on all cylinders, backing Spain to score over 2.5 team goals at +100 is a prudent choice.

Georgia's Fighting Spirit

While Spain's dominance is evident, Georgia's journey to the Round of 16 cannot be overlooked. They managed to secure a crucial victory against Portugal, beating them 2-0 in a stunning display. This victory not only boosted their confidence but also demonstrated their potential to challenge stronger teams.

Georgia's attack, led by players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Giorgi Chakvetadze, has shown the ability to capitalize on counter-attacks and set pieces. Their resilience and fighting spirit were key in overcoming the odds to finish third in Group F. Given Spain's tendency to control possession and press high, Georgia could exploit spaces left behind and find opportunities to score.

Despite Spain's impressive defensive record, the knockout stages often bring about unexpected twists and turns. The high stakes and pressure can sometimes lead to defensive lapses, even for the best teams. Therefore, betting on both teams to score at +150 offers value, especially considering Georgia's determined and opportunistic approach.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Over 8 / Wager: 6%

Pick: Phillies -1.5 / Wager: 6%

The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins continue their series, with the Phillies looking to rebound and the Marlins hoping to capitalize on their recent success. Despite the injuries to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, which have seen the past two games go under the total, there are several factors to suggest a high-scoring affair in this matchup.

Phillies' Lineup Adjustments and Marlins' Late-Game Scoring

The Phillies' lineup struggled initially without Harper and Schwarber, but they have had a couple of games to adjust. Players like Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto will need to step up to fill the offensive void. The Phillies have the depth to find ways to score, even without their top performers.

Moreover, the Marlins have shown a penchant for scoring runs late in games, particularly from the seventh inning onward. This ability to score in the later stages has been a crucial factor in their two wins in the series. With both teams capable of putting runs on the board, the over 8 seems like a solid bet.

Ranger Suarez (10-2, 1.83 ERA) will be on the mound for the Phillies. Suarez has been excellent this season, especially at home. The Marlins, however, have struggled significantly against left-handed pitching. Suarez's dominance against lefties should help limit the Marlins' scoring opportunities early in the game. Nevertheless, the Marlins' late-game scoring ability still suggests potential for a high total score.

Phillies' Run Line Advantage

Despite the recent struggles and injuries, the Phillies have an impressive record on the run line following a loss, currently standing at 19-10. This resilience after a loss indicates their ability to bounce back and win games convincingly. The Phillies' bullpen has also been solid, which should help them maintain a lead if they can establish one early.

Additionally, the Marlins' pitching has not been able to shut down the Phillies' offense completely, even with key players out. If the Phillies can get timely hitting from the middle and bottom of their order, they should be good.

MLB: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Over 8 / Wager: 6%

Eight runs seem a pretty low “total” for a game involving the New York Yankees, especially given their recent offensive performance. The Yankees have been hitting the over consistently, with the over hitting in 9 of their last 10 games. In fact, their games have typically exceeded this total comfortably, reaching at least 11 runs in 10 of their last 13 contests.

Recent Offensive Trends and Pitching Struggles

The Yankees’ offense has been explosive lately, as evidenced by their latest performance in Toronto. Key hitters like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu have been producing runs in bunches, leading to high-scoring games. The return of Judge from injury has particularly sparked the Yankees’ offense, providing a significant boost to their lineup.

On the pitching side, Gerrit Cole’s recent struggles add another layer of confidence to this pick. Cole, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball over the past few years, has not been himself since returning from the injured list. In his first two starts back, Cole has posted a 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, indicating that he is far from his best form. This opens up opportunities for the Blue Jays’ hitters to contribute to the total runs scored.

Toronto’s Offensive Contributions

The Toronto Blue Jays also have a potent lineup that can score runs quickly. Led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer, the Blue Jays have the firepower to exploit Cole’s current vulnerabilities. Kevin Gausman, Toronto’s starter, has also seen his games hit the over frequently. In fact, totals have reached eight runs or more in eight of Gausman’s last 10 starts.

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the recent form of the starting pitchers, expecting a high-scoring game seems reasonable. The Yankees’ recent trend of hitting the over combined with Cole’s struggles and the Blue Jays’ consistent offensive production makes the over 8 a compelling bet in this matchup.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 6%

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong track record when playing against the San Francisco Giants in their ballpark. With the Dodgers having won 15 of their last 19 games in San Francisco, this historical edge is a significant factor in this pick. Even more compelling is that 14 of those 15 wins have been by two or more runs, suggesting that when the Dodgers win in San Francisco, they often do so convincingly.

James Paxton's Dominance

James Paxton has been stellar for the Dodgers this season. The team is 11-3 when Paxton starts, with every victory being by at least two runs. This consistency provides a strong foundation for expecting the Dodgers to cover the -1.5 run line. Over his last three starts, Paxton has been particularly dominant, with the Dodgers outscoring their opponents 27-7 in those games. His ability to control games and limit opposing offenses will be crucial in this matchup.

Giants' Pitching Concerns

The San Francisco Giants are currently dealing with a shortage of reliable arms, which puts them at a significant disadvantage. The Dodgers' potent lineup, featuring Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith, has the ability to capitalize on any weaknesses in the Giants' pitching staff. Given the Giants' bullpen issues and the Dodgers' offensive firepower, it's likely that LA will continue to pour it on against their rivals.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Angels ML / Wager: 6%

The Los Angeles Angels are set to conclude an impressive homestand with a potential sweep of the Detroit Tigers. The Angels have been performing exceptionally well, and their momentum is undeniable as they aim to finish their best homestand in decades with a perfect 7-0 record. The current state of both teams and the pitching matchup suggest that the Angels are in a prime position to secure another victory.

Tyler Anderson's Reliability

Tyler Anderson has been a cornerstone of consistency for the Angels this season. His impressive 2.63 ERA highlights his ability to effectively manage games and limit opposing offenses. Anderson's reliability on the mound provides a solid foundation for the Angels, who have shown they can capitalize on strong pitching performances to secure wins. Given his form, Anderson is expected to continue his steady play against a struggling Tigers lineup.

Casey Mize's Struggles

On the other side, Casey Mize has had a challenging season, struggling to find his rhythm. The Tigers have lost seven of his last ten starts, and Mize has posted a concerning 5.36 ERA since the beginning of May. His difficulties on the mound have contributed to Detroit's overall struggles, as they have failed to generate consistent offensive or defensive performances.

Tigers' Overall Struggles

Detroit's overall form has been underwhelming, and their current skid makes it difficult to see them turning things around against a surging Angels team. The Tigers' rotation has been inconsistent, and their lineup has failed to provide the necessary support to counterbalance their pitching woes. This combination of factors has led to a difficult stretch for Detroit, and facing a team in peak form like the Angels is unlikely to change their fortunes.