Monday Night Thrills: Bengals - Jaguars Clash & NBA In-Season Tourney Quarterfinals Take Center Stage

Hello BrownBagBets Family,

As we gear up for another exciting Monday night of sports action, we want to start today’s post with a candid acknowledgment of a recent oversight in our NFL picks. In our commitment to bet right alongside you, we realized that the wager amounts for the regular NFL bets were inadvertently left blank on our website. This led to a discrepancy between what we recommended and what was actually wagered on our end.

The impact of this oversight is a bit complex to gauge. While it meant we avoided potential losses based on our projections, it also meant missing out on the full betting experience we always strive to provide.

To ensure this doesn’t happen again, we’re implementing a new review process. This includes a final check of all posts and bets before they go live, ensuring everything is accurate and consistent.

As a token of our appreciation for your understanding and continued support, we’re offering a free month of our services. This is just one way we want to show our commitment to you, our valued community.

This incident, while unintentional, highlights a key aspect of our ethos at BrownBagBets – we genuinely bet alongside you. Our internal processes are a direct reflection of the guidance we provide, reinforcing our commitment to authenticity and shared betting experiences.

Thank you for your understanding as we continue to refine our process. Now, let’s dive into tonight’s picks and look forward to a successful evening of betting!

As we turn the page on yesterday’s oversight, we embrace the excitement of a new day filled with promising opportunities. Tonight’s sports lineup is nothing short of thrilling. We’re gearing up for a captivating Monday Night Football showdown where the Bengals aim to halt the Jaguars’ momentum. Adding to the excitement, we’re diving into the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament quarterfinals – a fresh twist in basketball betting. While we continue to fine-tune our approach in NHL, we’re also spotting some valuable over/under plays in a select slate of NCAA basketball games. Let’s dive into today’s picks, keeping our commitment to transparency and shared success at the forefront.

NFL Monday Night

Bengals @ Jaguars

Pick: Christian Kirk over 51.5 Receiving Yards / 3% Bankroll

Pick: Ja’Marr Chase over 59.5 Receiving Yards / 6% Bankroll

Pick: Under 41 / 2% Bankroll

Pick: Joe Mixon under 46.5 yards rushing / 2% Bankroll

Pick: Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions / 2% Bankroll

As the Bengals brace for a showdown under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, their offensive playbook seems to be relying more on serendipity than strategy. Picture this: a football spiraling through the air, narrowly escaping the clutches of defenders, only to miraculously land in Ja’Marr Chase’s hands. It's the kind of heart-stopping moment that keeps fans on the edge of their seats, but it's a precarious foundation for a team's offensive game plan.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, present a different kind of puzzle. They're a team that, while occasionally showing flashes of brilliance, often struggles to maintain a consistent offensive rhythm. Their games are a tale of two halves, with a tendency to shift from a roaring blaze to a flickering flame. This inconsistency leads me to believe that field goals might be the order of the day, with the Bengals' defense funneling plays and forcing the Jaguars to settle for less than touchdowns.

In the trenches, Joe Mixon faces a formidable challenge. Without the dynamic Joe Burrow to diversify the Bengals' attack, Mixon is like a lone warrior facing an army. The Jaguars' defense, a wall allowing only 4.0 yards per carry, stands ready. Mixon, averaging a modest 3.9 per carry, might find himself hemmed in, his usual paths of escape closed off by a sea of opposing jerseys.

Evan Engram, the Jaguars' tight end, seems poised for a standout performance. It's as if the stars have aligned for him: a prime-time game, a vulnerable opponent, and a track record of reliable catches. The Bengals, having lost key defensive players, are particularly susceptible to tight end plays. They're like a ship with a hole in its hull, struggling to stay afloat against tight ends who've been exploiting this weakness game after game. Engram, with his consistent target rate and the Bengals' defensive frailties, could very well be the next to make a splash.

As for Ja'Marr Chase, our projections see him weaving his magic for 72 yards. The return of Tee Higgins adds another layer of complexity for the Jaguars' defense, already grappling with its own vulnerabilities. And with the Bengals likely chasing the game in the second half, Browning's arm will be put to the test, offering Chase ample opportunities to showcase his electrifying talent.

Finally, there's Christian Kirk, the Jaguars' ace in the hole. When Trevor Lawrence's gaze finds Kirk, it's as if they speak a secret language, one that translates into significant yardage on the field. Kirk's recent target rate is a testament to this connection, and his ability to turn a simple catch into a significant gain is nothing short of remarkable. Expect Kirk to be a key figure in this chess match, his moves potentially tipping the scales in the Jaguars' favor.

NCAAM Plays

Recently, our approach to NCAA basketball over/unders has been a game-changer, yielding significant returns. We’ve honed in on a strategy that leverages in-depth statistical analysis and expert projections, focusing on the most promising totals. Today, we’re sticking to this proven method, basing our picks primarily on projections. We’ll provide additional details only when they’re particularly relevant or enhance our reasoning. Trust in our process, as it continues to demonstrate its value.

Eastern Carolina @ Univ Maryland East Shore (UMES)

Pick: Under 146.5 / Wager 4% Bankroll

Projection: 141

Iowa @ Purdue

Pick: Over 164 / Wager 4% Bankroll

Projection: 171

Furman @ Arkansas

Pick: Over 159 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Projection: 162

San Jose State @ North Dakota State

Pick: San Jose State +3 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

This pick is not an over under obviously, but it sit’s within the same projection approach and since thereare just 6 games in total tonight, we are gonna play this one at a 2% wager. Our projection has San Jose State winning by 1 - so a +3 sure seems like great value.

Cal Poly @ Oregon State

Pick: Over 135 / Wager 2% Bankroll

Projection: 137

NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals

Celtics @ Pacers

Pick: Over 243.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Pick: Derrick White over 14.5 Points / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Sam Hauser over 8.5 Points / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Buddy Hield Under 22.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds / Wager: 4% Bankroll

There is something within this match up that really gives us some pause while also giving us some excitement. We see a potential for some really phenomenal statistics tonight coming from the Celtics. Last time these two teams met with White in the lineup he scored 18 points and only played 27 minutes because it was “blow-out city.” With Porzingis out, White has scored 20, 14, and 15. So this one is right where we would like to be.

We like the over here and if you are all angry that this one wager that maybe you liked is being called out at a 2% wager when the others are 4%, then I would say, “Get over it!” We have a system a process. When a bet is given and recommended and it just so happens to have had the line movement in a way that now makes it even a greater stretch, instead of betting more and paying down, we pay down and bet less. It’s a discipline. If you don’t like that, then turn to our page regarding the psychological aspects of cognitive bias in betting.

Sam Hauser has also absolutely been boosted by the absence of Porzingis as well. He’s come off the bench and scored over 8 points in 3 in a row and 7 of the last 8. This guy can shoot the 3 as well. We have statistics that show that the Pacers play at one of the fastest paces of all NBA teams. This yields more possession, which equals more shots, you get the point.

Regarding Buddy Hield, this number just seems like a big stretch to hit. On top of that, when you factor in that Halburton is likely to return tonight, that kills this number even more. Regardless of Tyrese’s status, we are confident that Boston defends guards and swing players well enough to manage this to an under.

Pelicans @ Kings

Pick: Damantas Sabonis over 17.5 points / Wager: 4% Bankroll

We like this play for this game based solely on the fact that Sabonis seems to be more efficient then not in most games and given the magnitude of this one, we see him playing 33 plus minutes. Each time he eclipses that significant amount of playing time, the results usually are pretty solid for him. In 2 matches against the Pelicans he struggled and score 10 points in a blow out and then was massively productive the second game scoring 23. Here’s the most important data point though - with Fox in the lineup, Sabonis is averaging almost 20 ppg.

Special NBA FUTURE Wagers:

Thanks for staying with the post all the way to the end to find this surprise wager waiting for you! In the thrilling world of the NBA In-Season Tournament, we're taking a bold leap with future odds, eyeing the Pelicans and Knicks as our dark horses for a potentially lucrative payoff. While the Celtics dominate the favorites' chart, the Knicks have surged in the odds, now sitting enticingly at +1100, a significant climb from their earlier +1700. The Pelicans, too, present an intriguing bet at +1200, especially considering their recent performances and growing synergy. This strategic move is all about high rewards at low risk; we're playing the long game, banking on one of these teams to defy expectations and clinch the title. With the Knicks' odds reflecting a notable undervaluation and the Pelicans' balanced attack posing a serious threat, this could be our chance to capitalize on the market's oversight and celebrate a triumphant underdog story.

Pick: Knicks to win NBA In-Season / Wager: 2% Bankroll @ +1000

Pick: Pelicans to win NBA In-Season / Wager: 2% Bankroll @ +1200