BrownBagBets Daily Release - Thursday, September 28th, 2023
Hello, fellow sports enthusiasts! As we approach the end of September, the sports world is buzzing with action. While the MLB is wrapping up its regular season and gearing up for the playoffs, we're shifting our focus to the gridiron. Let's dive into today's picks!
Today's Picks (1 unit = 2.5% bankroll)
NCAA Football - Temple at Tulsa, 7:30pm (ESPN)
Pick: Under 55.5 (1 Unit)
Insight: Both Temple and Tulsa have offenses that rank below the national average. Specifically, Tulsa's offense is averaging just under 23 points per game. Both the Sportsline and Action Sports models project a total under our pick. Based on our analysis and experience, we'd be surprised if this game's total even touches 50.
NCAA Football - W. Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State, 7:30pm (CBS Sports Network)
Pick: W. Kentucky -5.5 (1 Unit)
Insight: The line movement is in our favor, and when the line moves the way you're leaning, it's always a good sign. W. Kentucky's QB outclasses his counterpart, and history is on our side too. The Hilltoppers have taken this matchup the last four times, winning by a whopping 18 points last year.
NFL Thursday Night - Lions vs. Packers, 8:15pm (Prime Video)
Props:
LaPorte (Lions) Over 42.5 receiving yards (1 Unit)
Musgrave (Packers) Over 38.5 receiving yards (1 Unit)
Insight: Tight Ends are the name of the game tonight. The Lions have been generous, giving up the most yards to TEs in the league. With Watson back for the Packers, we expect Musgrave to exploit the middle of the field. As for LaPorte, he's been a constant presence, averaging 10.3 yards per catch and increasing his yardage every week.
Deeper Dive:
Temple vs. Tulsa: While both teams might not be lighting up the scoreboard, it's their lack of offensive firepower that has us excited. When two underperforming offenses meet, it's a recipe for a low-scoring game. Our models and intuition align perfectly on this one.
W. Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State: The Hilltoppers have dominated this matchup in recent history. With a superior QB and a favorable line movement, we're confident in W. Kentucky extending their winning streak against Middle Tennessee State.
Bankroll Management Tip of the Day: Remember, it's not about winning every bet, but about making smart, informed decisions. Diversify your bets and never put all your eggs in one basket. Today, we've provided a mix of game totals, spreads, and props to spread the risk.
Closing Thoughts: As always, we're here to make sports betting simple, transparent, and relatable. We've done our homework, and now it's time for you to enjoy the games. Stay tuned for more insights and picks tomorrow. Best of luck, and remember to bet responsibly!
Your trusted team at BrownBagBets.
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