Resilient Strategy: BrownBagBets Looks to Bounce Back with MLB Focus

Last night was a challenging 1-4 outcome for BrownBagBets, with only five MLB plays delivering an unideal result. However, we hit our largest play of the night, with the Yankees doing what they do best—crushing the Minnesota Twins. This key win helped mitigate the impact of the losses.

Tonight, we’re ready to rebound with another full day of MLB options. While we wait patiently for the NBA Finals and the Stanley Cup to come back into focus, our attention remains on leveraging strategic insights to make the most of today’s baseball matchups.

Let’s aim for a strong comeback and turn today’s opportunities into winning plays. With BrownBagBets, every challenge is a chance to refine our strategies and strive for consistent success.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 5%

Backing the Astros to Cover the Run Line

The Houston Astros appear well-positioned to secure a convincing win against the St. Louis Cardinals, particularly given the pitching matchup and recent team performances. Betting on the Astros to cover the -1.5 run line at +120 offers substantial value.

Astros’ Offensive Breakout

The Astros’ offense has shown signs of a true breakout in this series against the Cardinals, with key players like Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman back in the lineup and producing. Houston’s bats have been potent, capitalizing on the weaknesses of the Cardinals’ pitching staff. This offensive surge is a strong indicator that they can continue to put up runs in this matchup.

Ronel Blanco’s Elite Performance

Ronel Blanco has been delivering elite results for the Astros. Houston is 8-2 when he pitches, with six of those wins being by two runs or more. Blanco’s consistency and ability to keep opposing offenses in check provide a solid foundation for the Astros to build upon. His performance on the mound will be crucial in maintaining the Astros’ momentum and securing a win by a comfortable margin.

Miles Mikolas’ Struggles

Miles Mikolas, the Cardinals’ starter, has been struggling recently. He has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts and has thrown a high pitch count in his most recent outing. The Cardinals have lost six of the seven games he has started, and all six losses have been by two runs or more. Mikolas’ inconsistency and the recent cold streak of the Cardinals’ bats add to the likelihood of an Astros win by a significant margin.

Astros’ Home Advantage

Playing at home provides the Astros with an additional edge. The familiar environment and supportive home crowd can boost the team’s performance, especially when they are already on a hot streak. The combination of a strong home-field advantage, Blanco’s elite pitching, and the Cardinals’ struggles make the run line bet an attractive option.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick: Giants ML @ +110 / Wager: 5%

Backing the Giants for a Road Win

The San Francisco Giants present significant value on the money line against the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially given the pitching matchup and recent performances of both teams. Betting on the Giants to win at +110 offers substantial value.

Jordan Hicks’ Strong Transition

Jordan Hicks has been a revelation for the Giants, transitioning from closer to starter seamlessly and showing no signs of letting up. His ability to dominate in his new role has been a key factor in the Giants’ recent successes, and he should be able to keep the Diamondbacks’ lineup in check.

Jordan Montgomery’s Struggles

Jordan Montgomery, on the other hand, has struggled since his strong performance against the Giants in his first start of the season. The lack of spring training and a late start to the season appear to be catching up with him, and there were few positive signs in his last outing. His recent regression bodes well for the Giants’ chances.

Giants’ Road Strength

Despite entering Tuesday with a five-game losing streak, it’s important to note that these losses came against tough opponents like the Phillies and Yankees. The Giants have been strong on the road overall, and facing a Diamondbacks team that has lacked any real home-field advantage thus far provides a favorable opportunity for them to bounce back.

MLB: New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Pick: Nationals +1.5 / Wager: 4%

Backing the Nationals to Cover the Run Line

The Washington Nationals offer solid value on the run line against the New York Mets, particularly given the pitching matchup and recent performances. Betting on the Nationals to cover the +1.5 run line at 4% provides a strategic edge.

Patrick Corbin’s Recent Form

Believe it or not, Patrick Corbin has shown marked improvement lately. He has posted back-to-back quality starts, signaling a potential resurgence. While his overall numbers this season aren’t stellar, his recent form suggests that he can keep the Nationals competitive. If Corbin continues to pitch effectively, the Nationals have a good chance of covering the run line.

Luis Severino’s Inconsistency

Luis Severino has been rather inconsistent over his past five starts, with a 4.97 ERA during that span. This inconsistency could be an opportunity for the Nationals’ lineup to capitalize, especially with the Mets potentially looking ahead to their upcoming trip to London to face the rival Phillies. Severino’s recent struggles make the Nationals an attractive underdog, particularly with the added cushion of the +1.5 run line.

Trap Game for the Mets

This game has the feel of a potential trap for the Mets, who may have their focus split with an upcoming high-profile series in London against the Phillies. Distractions and the anticipation of a significant trip can sometimes lead to less-than-optimal performance in the preceding games. This dynamic adds to the potential value of backing the Nationals on the run line.

Nationals’ Competitive Edge

While the Nationals have had their struggles this season, they have been competitive in many games, especially when getting solid outings from their starting pitchers. With Corbin in decent form and the Mets’ possible distractions, this game sets up well for the Nationals to keep it close or even secure a win.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Dodgers ML / Wager: 5%

Pick: Under 8.5 / Wager: 5%

Backing the Dodgers to Bounce Back and a Low-Scoring Game

The Los Angeles Dodgers are primed to bounce back after a narrow 1-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Additionally, given the current form of both pitching staffs and recent scoring trends, the under 8.5 runs bet also offers significant value.

Dodgers’ Resilience with Paxton on the Mound

Despite the recent loss, the Dodgers have shown resilience, particularly with James Paxton on the mound. Paxton has been a key contributor to their recent successes, with the team winning six of his last seven starts. His ability to deliver solid performances gives the Dodgers a significant edge. While Tyler Glasnow has struggled to convert his starts into wins for the Pirates, Paxton’s presence is a stabilizing factor for LA.

Paul Skenes’ Dominance

On the other side, Paul Skenes has been outstanding for the Pirates, boasting a 1.50 ERA over his last three starts. However, this Dodgers lineup presents a different level of challenge compared to his recent opponents (Detroit, San Francisco, or the Cubs). While Skenes might continue his impressive form, facing a more potent Dodgers lineup will be a true test.

Dodgers’ Offensive Struggles and Pitching Strength

The Dodgers’ offense has been inconsistent, scoring more than four runs only once in their last nine games (against the Mets). Their struggles at the plate are evident, but their pitching staff has been a bright spot, allowing just 11 runs over the past seven games. This trend suggests a low-scoring affair is likely, especially with Paxton capable of delivering a serviceable five or six innings.

Low-Scoring Trend Continues

Given the Dodgers’ recent scoring struggles and the impressive form of both Paxton and Skenes, the under 8.5 runs bet is appealing. The Dodgers have been involved in multiple low-scoring games recently, and with both starting pitchers in good form, this game has all the makings of another tight, low-scoring contest.

MLB: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 6%

Backing the Yankees to Cover the Run Line

The New York Yankees are in a strong position to secure another convincing win against the Minnesota Twins, especially given the pitching matchup and recent performances. Betting on the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line at +115 offers substantial value.

Yankees’ Home Dominance

The Yankees have been raking at home, and their offense shows no signs of slowing down. Fresh off a long West Coast trip, they have settled back in and delivered back-to-back run line wins. Their lineup, featuring sluggers like Soto, LeMahieu, Stanton, and Judge, is well-equipped to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees’ recent form and home-field advantage make them a formidable opponent for the Twins.

Carlos Rodon’s Home Performance

Carlos Rodon has been outstanding at home, posting a 2.13 ERA and holding opponents to a .189 batting average. His ability to dominate at Yankee Stadium gives the Yankees a significant edge on the mound. Rodon’s home stats indicate that he can effectively shut down the Twins’ lineup, keeping the game well within the Yankees’ control.

Chris Paddack’s Road Struggles

Chris Paddack has struggled mightily on the road, with a 6.85 ERA and allowing a .312 batting average. He has given up five home runs in just 22 1/3 innings outside his spacious home park. Facing a potent Yankees lineup in a hitter-friendly park like Yankee Stadium is a recipe for disaster for Paddack. The Yankees’ hitters have also had success against him in limited matchups, further highlighting the disadvantage Paddack faces in this game.

Twins’ Disadvantage

The Twins are in a tough spot with Paddack on the mound, especially against a Yankees team that thrives at home. Given Paddack’s road struggles and the Yankees’ ability to exploit the short porch in right field, the Twins are likely to find themselves outmatched.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Orioles ML @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Backing the Orioles to Continue Their Hot Streak

The Baltimore Orioles are in a strong position to secure another victory against the Toronto Blue Jays, especially given the recent form of both teams and the offensive prowess displayed by the Orioles. Betting on the Orioles to win at +100 offers substantial value.

Recent Form and Offensive Firepower

The Blue Jays have struggled recently, losing three of their last four games and managing to score only three runs in the first two games of this series. In stark contrast, the Orioles have been on a tear, scoring 17 runs in the same span. This offensive explosion is a key factor in backing the Orioles, who have been hitting .304 with a .911 OPS over their last seven days. Their consistent run production makes them a formidable opponent, even against a solid pitcher like Jose Berrios.

Jose Berrios’ Home Performance

While Berrios has been excellent at home with a 3-1 record and a 1.60 ERA, his last outing against the Orioles revealed some vulnerabilities. Berrios allowed two home runs to Baltimore just four starts ago, and with the Orioles’ bats currently hot, it’s reasonable to expect they could replicate or even exceed that performance. Despite Berrios’ recent good form, the Orioles’ current hitting streak presents a significant challenge.

Orioles’ Offensive Momentum

The Orioles’ lineup has been relentless, showcasing their depth and ability to score runs in bunches. With multiple players contributing offensively, they have proven difficult to contain. This sustained offensive momentum is likely to continue, giving them an edge over the Blue Jays, who have been struggling to put runs on the board.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Padres -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 4%

Backing the Padres to Avoid the Sweep

The San Diego Padres are poised to bounce back and avoid a sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels. Despite their recent struggles, several factors favor the Padres in this matchup, making the -1.5 run line bet at +120 an appealing option.

Padres’ Determination and Road Success with Dylan Cease

The Padres have struggled offensively in this series, scoring only three runs in the first two games. However, they have a chance to turn things around with Dylan Cease on the mound. Interestingly, the Padres have won all six of Cease’s road starts this season, indicating their ability to support him away from home. Cease has shown the capability to deliver strong performances, and the Padres’ lineup is due for a breakout.

Angels’ Pitching Concerns with Jose Soriano

Jose Soriano has been inconsistent for the Angels, particularly in his last two starts, where he has posted a 6.00 ERA. This provides an opportunity for the Padres’ offense to exploit. Soriano’s recent form suggests he could struggle against a motivated Padres lineup looking to avoid a sweep. The Padres’ bats have the potential to capitalize on Soriano’s vulnerabilities, especially with runners in scoring positions.

Offensive Turnaround for San Diego

The Padres have been hampered by poor production with runners on base, but this trend is likely to reverse given the talent in their lineup. The likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Juan Soto are too good to stay quiet for long. Facing Soriano, who has been shaky lately, could be the spark they need to ignite their offense and put runs on the board.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Pick: Under 8 / Wager: 4%

Betting on a Low-Scoring Game at the Coliseum

The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are set to face off in what should be a low-scoring affair at the Coliseum. Several factors, including recent pitching performances and historical trends, support betting on the game to go under 8 runs.

Logan Gilbert’s Dominance Against the A’s

Logan Gilbert has been exceptional against the Athletics in his recent starts, not allowing more than two runs in his last four outings against them. His consistency and ability to shut down the A’s lineup bode well for a low-scoring game. Gilbert’s overall performance has been solid, and he is expected to continue this trend against an Oakland offense that has struggled throughout the season.

Mariners’ Strong Pitching

The Mariners’ pitching staff has been impressive, averaging just two runs allowed per game over their last eight games. This collective effort from the bullpen and starting rotation has been key in keeping games low-scoring. With Gilbert on the mound, the Mariners are well-positioned to continue their strong defensive performances.

Joey Estes’ Effective Previous Outing

Joey Estes has shown he can be effective against the Mariners, as evidenced by his May 11th start where he gave up just two hits and one run over five innings. If Estes can replicate that performance, it will contribute significantly to a low-scoring game. While the Mariners have a more potent lineup, Estes’ prior success provides confidence in his ability to limit their scoring.

Historical Trends and Game Context

In their previous series in May, all three matchups between these teams saw nine or more runs scored. However, with Gilbert now in the rotation and both teams having shown improved pitching, a lower-scoring game is anticipated. The dynamics of this game differ from those in May, and the current form of the pitchers suggests a different outcome.