Resilient Betting: BrownBagBets Focuses on MLB and Stanley Cup After NBA Finals

Yesterday didn’t go as we would have hoped, with the NBA Finals hitting us hard. However, the BrownBagBets approach is designed to handle off days, ensuring that we remain resilient and focused. We rise up again today, ready to capitalize on new opportunities.

Our attention shifts to the 11 MLB games on the slate and the return of the Stanley Cup Finals to center stage. With disciplined strategies and insightful analysis, we aim to turn things around and make today a winning day.

Let’s roll right into our expert picks and wager guidance. Let’s keep pushing forward and make the most of today’s betting landscape with BrownBagBets.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals (Game 3): Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Panthers ML @ +125 / Wager: 6%

Pick: Over 5.5 Goals @ +105 / Wager: 6%

Overview:

As the NHL Stanley Cup Finals move to Edmonton for Game 3, the Florida Panthers are poised to take control of the series. The Panthers have dominated the first two games, outscoring the Oilers 8-1 and effectively neutralizing Edmonton’s potent offense. Let’s break down why the Panthers are a solid pick to win tonight and why the over on goals is an attractive wager.

Panthers’ Dominance:

The Florida Panthers have looked every bit the part of a team on a mission. They have won all four meetings against the Oilers this season, including the regular season, with a commanding 17-5 aggregate scoreline. In the first two games of the finals, the Panthers have been particularly impressive in their ability to stifle Edmonton’s attack. The Oilers have struggled to generate quality scoring chances, managing just one goal over two games. Sergei Bobrovsky has been a fortress in goal, making key saves and further frustrating the Oilers’ offensive efforts.

Panthers’ Game Plan:

Florida’s game plan has been to apply relentless pressure and capitalize on turnovers, a strategy that has paid dividends. Their defensive discipline, combined with Bobrovsky’s stellar goaltending, has made it difficult for Edmonton to find any rhythm. This defensive prowess is a significant reason to back the Panthers on the money line, especially given their underdog status at +125. The Panthers’ confidence and momentum, coupled with their systematic dismantling of the Oilers’ attack, make them a formidable opponent in Game 3.

Oilers’ Desperation:

On the other side, the Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a desperate situation. Down 0-2, they need a win to keep their Stanley Cup hopes alive. This desperation will likely lead to a more aggressive approach, both offensively and defensively. Expect the Oilers to take more risks, push the pace, and try to force the issue early. While this aggression can lead to more scoring opportunities, it also leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks.

Over 5.5 Goals Rationale:

Given the context, the over 5.5 goals at +105 is a strong play. Edmonton’s home games this postseason have averaged 7.0 goals per game, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring affairs when they are on home ice. The Oilers’ need to score and the potential for open play should create numerous scoring chances for both teams. Additionally, the Panthers have shown they can exploit these situations, with players like Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov leading the charge.

Key Players to Watch:

• Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): McDavid is always a threat and will be looked upon to spark the Oilers’ offense. His ability to create scoring opportunities, either for himself or his teammates, will be crucial.

• Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers): Tkachuk has been instrumental in Florida’s success, consistently finding ways to contribute on the score sheet. His presence in front of the net and ability to finish plays makes him a key player to watch.

• Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida Panthers): The likely Conn Smythe candidate, Bobrovsky’s performance in goal will be critical. If he continues his current form, the Panthers will be tough to beat.

MLB: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +100 / Wager: 8%

The Yankees have been dominating this series, making it look like a matchup between men and boys. In fact, the Yankees’ last eight weeks, except for their venture to Camden Yards and hosting the Dodgers, have consistently shown their superiority over their opponents. This dominance has continued throughout the first three games against the Royals, with New York’s starters and bullpen thoroughly outclassing Kansas City’s pitchers.

Yankees’ Recent Form:

New York is showing no signs of slowing down, even having gone without key players like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at times. Despite these absences, the Yankees’ lineup remains formidable. Currently, they are on a remarkable 7-0 ATS run on the road and a 13-3 ATS tear in their last 16 road games. These stats highlight their consistency and ability to perform under various conditions.

Nestor Cortes’ Performance:

Nestor Cortes has been a crucial part of the Yankees’ pitching rotation, displaying some nasty stuff overall. His ability to shut down opponents has been a significant factor in New York’s recent success. With Cortes on the mound, the Yankees are in a strong position to continue their winning ways.

Kansas City’s Struggles:

On the other side, the Royals have been struggling mightily. Alex Marsh, in particular, hasn’t been providing the kind of length that Kansas City needs to keep their bullpen from getting overworked and subsequently whacked. This lack of depth and quality in pitching has been exposed repeatedly by the Yankees, and it’s unlikely to change in this matchup.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Pirates ML / Wager: 6%

Happy Mitch Keller Day! There’s plenty of reason to celebrate, as the Pittsburgh Pirates ace is set to take the mound, bringing with him a wave of confidence and a proven track record of success.

Mitch Keller’s Dominance:

Mitch Keller is on an impressive streak, winning six straight starts and allowing just five runs over these outings. His dominant performance has positioned him as one of the premier pitchers in the National League, making him a serious Cy Young contender. Keller’s ability to consistently shut down opposing offenses has been a cornerstone for the Pirates, instilling confidence and swagger in the team whenever he pitches.

Team’s Performance with Keller:

The Pirates clearly rally around Keller’s starts, playing with a noticeable boost in confidence and effectiveness. This extra edge has translated into wins, as the team seems to elevate their play when Keller is on the mound. His presence provides stability and assurance, which has been crucial for Pittsburgh’s success in his outings.

St. Louis Cardinals’ Challenges:

On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled to find consistency this season. Their lineup has shown vulnerability, and facing a pitcher of Keller’s caliber only exacerbates their challenges. The Cardinals’ recent performances have lacked the spark needed to overcome a dominant pitcher, and Keller’s current form makes it unlikely that they will break through against him.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Cubs ML / Wager: 6%

The Chicago Cubs are in a favorable position to take down the Tampa Bay Rays, especially given the Rays’ recent struggles and the form of their starting pitcher.

Tampa Bay’s Struggles:

Tampa Bay has hit a rough patch, going 7-14 in their last 21 games. During this period, they’ve been the worst ATS team in MLB based on win percentage. The Rays have struggled offensively, being held to four runs or less in 15 of those games and two runs or less in nine. This lack of run production is a significant concern, especially when facing a solid starting pitcher.

Taj Bradley’s Inconsistencies:

Taj Bradley, the Rays’ young starter, has shown flashes of ace potential but has been erratic. Recently, he’s had to navigate the tough Orioles lineup twice, which can take a toll on any pitcher, let alone a young one still finding his footing. Bradley’s inconsistency provides an opportunity for the Cubs’ offense to take advantage and put up some runs.

Justin Steele’s Resurgence:

Justin Steele is starting to show signs of getting back to his early-season form. As a pitcher who can dominate when he’s on, Steele gives the Cubs a significant edge on the mound. His ability to shut down opposing lineups will be crucial against a Rays team that has struggled to score.

Rays’ Lineup Issues:

Apart from Isaac Paredes, the Rays’ lineup doesn’t pose much of a threat these days. Their offensive woes have been evident, and with Steele on the mound for the Cubs, it’s hard to see them breaking out of their slump in this game.

Cubs’ Solid Home Record:

The Cubs have been solid at home, boasting an 18-13 record. This home-field advantage, combined with their starting pitching and the Rays’ struggles, makes the Cubs a strong pick to win this matchup.

MLB: Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Pick: Mets -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 8%

The New York Mets are in a strong position to cover the run line against the Miami Marlins, given recent performances and pitching matchups.

Miami’s Struggles:

The Miami Marlins have been struggling significantly, particularly in their recent losses. They were blown out again on Wednesday night, marking their eighth consecutive loss by two runs or more. In six of those eight losses, the margin was four runs or more. This trend indicates a tendency towards streakiness, often to the wrong side of the ledger, making them a vulnerable team, especially when facing competent opponents.

Roddery Munoz’s Ineffectiveness:

Roddery Munoz, the Marlins’ starter, has not shown much promise based on his limited sample size. His performances so far have been underwhelming, and there are no significant signs of a turnaround. This gives the Mets an opportunity to exploit his weaknesses and put up runs early in the game.

Mets’ Recent Form:

The Mets have been battling lately, showing resilience and the ability to compete. They have a lineup capable of scoring runs, and with their recent form, they should be able to take advantage of Munoz’s struggles. The Mets’ offense has the firepower to score multiple runs and create a significant margin of victory.

Luis Severino’s Potential:

Luis Severino is capable of delivering a gem on the mound. While the Marlins got to him last month, there’s a strong likelihood that Severino can bounce back with a better performance. Severino has the talent to shut down a weak Marlins lineup, and if he brings his best stuff, it could be a long night for Miami’s hitters.

Marlins’ Offensive Woes:

The Marlins’ lineup has been ineffective, and this doesn’t bode well against a pitcher of Severino’s caliber. Their inability to consistently score runs has been a significant factor in their recent losing streak, and it’s unlikely they will find much success against a determined Severino.