Reorganizing NFL Strategy & MLB Playoff Picks for October

A Relentless Commitment to Winning and Excellence

Let’s face it—Week 5 of the NFL was tough on BrownBagBets. In fact, this season has been far from the standard we’ve come to expect from ourselves. It’s disappointing, and we won’t sugarcoat it. Our results in the NFL so far are unacceptable, and the one thing we won’t tolerate is mediocrity.

But here’s what you can count on from BrownBagBets: relentless commitment to winning and excellence. We’ve made it this far by constantly improving and never settling, and that’s exactly what we’ll continue to do. Over the next three days, our team will be deep in the trenches—analyzing, recalibrating, and identifying where we’ve gone wrong in the NFL picks. Expect fewer plays coming out in Week 6 as we re-evaluate what truly makes a good pick and which indicators we’ll highlight going forward.

Today’s Focus: MLB Playoffs and a Potential NHL Play

Despite our NFL recalibration, today brings some great opportunities in the MLB Divisional Round Playoffs. Here’s what we’re watching closely:

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at Shea Stadium: With the series tied at 1-1, this Game 3 is set to be a battle. We’ve done our homework, and there are key indicators showing value in this matchup.

• LA Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: Another series tied at 1-1, the Dodgers and Padres square off in Game 3 tonight. Expect a tight, intense game, and we’ve got our eye on some solid plays for this one.

Also, don’t be surprised if we throw in an NHL pick for tonight. Even though it’s a quiet slate, there’s always room for finding value in under-the-radar plays.

Rebounding for October: The Month is Far from Over

Yes, Week 5 was rough, and yes, we’re disappointed with the NFL so far. But October is still a long month, and there’s plenty of winning left to be had. We’re not backing down. Instead, we’re doubling down on our efforts to right the ship, and we’re laser-focused on getting back to the level of excellence you’ve come to expect from BrownBagBets.

Let’s turn this month around—one smart, calculated bet at a time.

MLB Divisional Playoff Series (Game 3): Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Pick: Mets +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Philly's Starter Underperforming:
Aaron Nola struggled in the final month of the regular season, posting a mediocre 4.91 ERA. Additionally, he hasn't pitched in a game since September 29, which raises concerns about potential rust in his performance. Nola also has a 4.05 ERA in two starts against the Mets this season, which does not inspire confidence.

Strong Matchups for the Mets:
New York's Pete Alonso and Starling Marte have favorable career splits against Nola, providing the Mets with a significant advantage as they face the struggling Phillies' starter.

Sean Manaea's Quality Performance:
On the mound for the Mets is Sean Manaea, who has delivered two quality starts in three outings this season against the Phillies. His performance could help solidify the Mets' chances of keeping the game competitive.

Rested Bullpen Advantages:
The Mets have not played a home game since September 22, which may contribute to their home-field advantage. Notably, key setup men Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were unavailable for Game 2 due to heavy workloads but will be ready for tonight, adding depth to the Mets' bullpen.

MLB Divisional Playoff Series (Game 3): Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Pick: Over 7.5 / Wager: 5%
Pick: Padres ML / Wager: 2%

Buehler's Struggles:
Walker Buehler has struggled this season and will likely have a short hook in this matchup. His performance since being reactivated in mid-August has been concerning, posting a 4.93 ERA over his last eight starts. With a struggling pitching staff, the Dodgers may find it challenging to contain the Padres' offense.

Padres' Offensive Momentum:
The Padres are coming off a dominant performance, hitting six homers in a 10-2 win over the Dodgers. They have finished the season strong, winning over 20 of their final 30 home games, and their lineup appears ready to capitalize on any mistakes Buehler makes.

Tatis vs. Buehler:
Fernando Tatis has a history of success against Buehler, which adds to the Padres' confidence at the plate. San Diego's offensive intensity is palpable, and they are not intimidated by the Dodgers, making this a prime spot for a high-scoring affair.

Pitching Matchup Favors Padres:
While Buehler may struggle, the Padres' starter, Michael King, has been impressive. However, even if King performs well, the Padres' lineup should provide ample run support, contributing to a total that surpasses 7.5.