Quiet Storm: Today’s Picks on the Eve of NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend

Welcome to today’s BrownBagBets post! As our community knows, two of our board directors are now in Vegas, having landed safely and ready to dive into the world of sports betting from the heart of the action. Their travel day meant a slight change in our usual collaborative approach, leading to a lighter day with just four plays. But, as they say, sometimes less is more. We’re thrilled to report a 3-1 victory in those plays, boosting our bankroll by a solid 4%, and bouncing back beautifully to reach 133% of our total bankroll for January.

Today, the sports world is holding its breath in anticipation of the NFL playoffs kicking off tomorrow. But that doesn’t mean we’re taking a backseat. It’s a quieter day, but we’ve still got our eyes keenly set on a select few games across NBA, NCAA Basketball, and NHL. Even in the quieter moments, there are opportunities to be seized, and that’s exactly what we’re here to do.

So, let’s gear up and dive into today’s picks. With the playoffs on the horizon and our team making moves in Vegas, we’re in for an exciting time. Stay tuned as we navigate today’s sports landscape with the insightful, strategic betting advice you’ve come to expect from BrownBagBets. Let’s get after it and continue to grow that bag!

NCAA Basketball: Minnesota @ Indiana

Pick: Minnesota + 3.5 / Wager: 2%

Today’s NCAA Basketball focus is on an intriguing matchup between Minnesota and Indiana. We’re taking Minnesota with the points at +3.5, backed by a 2% wager. Our confidence in this pick is bolstered by insights from KenPom, which projects this as a close 2-point game. The Minnesota Golden Gophers have an impressive record against the spread this season, standing at 14-1 ATS. This matchup presents a significant test for them, especially considering their recent victory over Nebraska.

Minnesota’s shooting efficiency has been a key strength, hitting 36% from beyond the arc and an impressive 57% from inside it. This prowess in shooting will be crucial, particularly against Indiana, which ranks 200th in rebounding. Minnesota’s offensive rebounding ability could exploit this weakness in the Hoosiers’ defense. While Indiana’s home court advantage may give them an edge in securing a win, the spread of 3.5 points in favor of Minnesota seems overly generous. Given the Gophers’ track record and statistical strengths, we believe they will cover the spread, making this an attractive bet in today’s NCAA lineup.

NCAA Basketball: Dayton @ Duquesne

Pick: Dayton ML @ +102 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Over 138 / Wager: 2%

Today, we’re focusing on the Dayton vs. Duquesne matchup, and we’re placing two bets. Our first pick is on Dayton Moneyline at +102, with a 3% wager. This pick stems from our comprehensive projection modeling, which aggregates data from numerous subscription service websites. This approach allows our subscribers to access valuable insights without the hefty price tag of individual subscriptions. Our model predicts Dayton winning by at least 4 points. We’ve been closely monitoring Dayton at BrownBagBets, and their current 9-game winning streak is a testament to their formidable form.

Our second bet is on the Over 138, with a 2% wager. Both Dayton and Duquesne play at a slower pace, which might raise questions about hitting the over. However, this cautious pacing is precisely why we’re limiting the wager to 2%, balancing the risk. Dayton’s shooting efficiency is noteworthy – over 40% from beyond the arc, while allowing opponents to shoot nearly 35%. The potential for rebounding points also plays into our calculation, with Dayton having the superior offense. This mix of factors leads us to believe that the over 138 is an undervalued opportunity, hence our recommendation on this bet.

NCAA Basketball: Nebraska @ Iowa

Pick: Nebraska +4.5 / Wager: 3%

In tonight’s NCAA Basketball lineup, the matchup between Nebraska and Iowa stands out. We’re taking Nebraska at +4.5, backing this with a 3% wager. Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t a letdown spot for Nebraska following their impressive rout of Purdue. Our analysis, supported by KenPom’s projections, suggests a much closer game than what the initial lines indicated. The line movement in favor of Nebraska further strengthens our confidence in this pick.

Iowa this season is not the powerhouse we’ve seen in years past. Their offense, in particular, doesn’t match up to our standards at BrownBagBets. With a limited number of games tonight, this matchup is especially significant. The Hawkeyes’ struggling offense leads us to believe that Nebraska not only has a strong chance to cover but also to potentially win outright. However, even if it turns out to be a trap game, the spread of +4.5 gives us a comfortable buffer, indicating that Nebraska is unlikely to lose by more than 5 points. This game, therefore, presents an excellent opportunity to take the points with Nebraska in what we anticipate being one of the best bets of the evening.

NCAA Basketball: Quinnipiac @ Marist

Pick: Marist ML / Wager: 2%

In today’s NCAA Basketball selection, we’re eyeing the Quinnipiac vs. Marist game. Our pick is on Marist Moneyline, with a modest 2% wager. This decision is heavily influenced by a notable disparity we’ve observed between the total bets and total cash: Marist has attracted 47% more cash than plays at -1.5. Such a significant delta in betting patterns is often an insightful indicator, suggesting strong confidence in Marist, particularly as they play at home.

At first glance, based on each team’s season results, this pick might seem unconventional. However, as we often say at BrownBagBets, “the money doesn’t lie.” Marist’s 9-3 record against the spread (ATS) this year adds to our confidence. Furthermore, their defensive metrics are impressive – ranking 33rd nationally in field goal percentage defense and 24th in defensive rebounding. These statistics point to a strong defensive capability, crucial in tightly contested games.

The reason for a conservative 2% wager is the acknowledgment of Quinnipiac’s commendable season so far. They’ve shown they’re no pushovers, which could make this game closer than some might expect. However, with Marist’s solid home record and the betting trends heavily leaning their way, taking the Moneyline on Marist seems like a savvy play in today’s NCAA lineup.

NBA: Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat

Pick: Heat +3.5 / Wager: 2%

Tonight’s NBA matchup between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat presents a fascinating betting opportunity. We’re going with the Heat at +3.5, allocating a 2% wager. In the absence of Jimmy Butler, the Heat have adapted their game strategy, notably increasing their three-point shot frequency. Since Butler’s injury in late December, they’ve risen to the top half of the league in deep shot frequency and have been within the top 10 since January. This shift capitalizes on their proficiency from beyond the arc, a crucial factor in today’s game.

However, the matchup against the Magic is not without its challenges. Miami faces mounting injuries and a potentially unfavorable matchup. The Magic have excelled against the spread, covering in 67.6% of their games, and they’re particularly strong as underdogs at 16-9 ATS. In contrast, Miami’s home ATS record is less impressive at 6-11.

Despite Miami’s excellent home shooting stats, including over 40% from three-point range, the Magic are a formidable defensive team, ranking among the NBA’s top 20 in defending the three. With Kyle Lowry expected to miss another game and the statuses of Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin uncertain, Miami might face additional difficulties.

Orlando’s defensive prowess and superior performance in rebounding give them an edge, especially in defending the perimeter against a Heat team that relies heavily on outside shooting. Given these dynamics, the Magic seem well-positioned to challenge Miami, making the Heat at +3.5 an enticing bet for today’s game.

NBA: Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers

Pick: Kings +1 / Wager: 3%

In today’s NBA action, the Sacramento Kings face the Philadelphia 76ers, and we’re siding with the Kings at +1, backed by a 3% wager. This game is a classic case of the wrong team being favored. The Kings are coming off road games against the Pistons and Hornets, two of the league’s weaker teams. Now, they turn their attention to the 76ers, a significantly stronger team, but one that is considerably less formidable without Joel Embiid.

Embiid’s absence has been notably impactful for Philadelphia. The 76ers have struggled without him, posting a 2-7 straight-up record and 3-6 against the spread in the games he’s missed. Additionally, the absence of Robert Covington, with his defensive prowess, further hampers the 76ers.

The Kings, traditionally known for their offensive firepower, have recently shown considerable improvement in defense, ranking 12th per Cleaning the Glass, while their offense remains robust at 13th. This balance has resulted in a positive point differential of +4.5.

Looking at Philadelphia’s schedule, they have a two-day rest before facing the Rockets and Nuggets, with the possibility of Embiid’s return. This context could influence their focus and energy levels against the Kings.

Given these factors, we believe the Kings are undervalued in this matchup. They have demonstrated the capacity to compete at a high level, and there’s a real possibility they could end up being the

NBA: New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

Pick: Jokic over 20.5 rebounds + assists / Wager: 3%

Pick: Valanciunas over 20.5 points + rebounds / Wager: 3%

Tonight’s NBA spotlight shines on the matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Denver Nuggets. We’re honing in on two player prop bets for this game. First, we’re backing Nikola Jokic to go over 20.5 in combined rebounds and assists, with a 3% wager. Jokic’s historical performance against Jonas Valanciunas is nothing short of dominant, averaging a triple-double over their last ten encounters. He has surpassed the 20.5 RA line in nine of these games, making him a strong bet for tonight. Additionally, Jokic’s assist numbers tend to increase at home, further boosting our confidence in this pick.

Our second bet is on Jonas Valanciunas to exceed 20.5 combined points and rebounds, also with a 3% stake. Valanciunas has been a significant contributor to the Pelicans’ recent success, averaging 12.8 points and 10.2 rebounds in 2024. The Pelicans have been exceptional lately, leading in several key metrics, including point differential and defensive rating. Even if New Orleans rests some players, their depth and Valanciunas’ consistent performance make this a worthwhile bet.

While the Pelicans’ strong recent form and depth add an element of unpredictability to the game, the individual matchups and statistics provide a solid basis for these prop bets. Jokic’s proven track record against Valanciunas and the latter’s steady contributions this season point to both players likely exceeding their respective lines in this highly anticipated game.

NHL Pick: Nashville Predators @ Dallas Stars

Pick: Predators +1.5 / Wager: 3%

In the NHL tonight, we turn our attention to the Nashville Predators facing off against the Dallas Stars in what promises to be a closely contested game. For this matchup, we’re picking the Predators at +1.5, with a wager of 3%. This choice is based on the competitive history between these Central Division rivals and the recent form of both teams.

The Predators and Stars have had tight encounters this season, with both previous games being decided by just one goal and the road team emerging victorious each time. Nashville’s recent performance, winning 3 of their last 5 games, demonstrates their offensive consistency, averaging three goals per game. However, their defense can be unpredictable, oscillating between solid and porous, which is a factor to consider in this bet.

Goalie Juuse Saros has had a mixed bag of performances recently, conceding five goals in four of his last five starts. While his overall record is positive, his current form, with an .899 save percentage and -8.9 goals saved above expected, indicates potential vulnerabilities.

NHL Pick: Philadelphia Flyers @ Minnesota Wild

Pick: Flyers ML / Wager: 3%

In tonight’s NHL lineup, the Philadelphia Flyers are set to take on the Minnesota Wild, and we’re backing the Flyers on the Moneyline with a 3% wager. This pick takes into account the current form and circumstances of both teams.

The Wild, under coach John Hynes, have experienced a significant downturn recently, losing six of their last seven games. This slump is largely attributed to a spate of injuries that have hit the team hard, as evidenced by their recent heavy defeats against the Stars. Tonight’s game against the Flyers presents an opportunity for them to respond, but their current form and injury woes cast doubt on their ability to do so effectively.

On the other hand, the Flyers have also seen a slight regression in their performance, with a recent record of 3-4-3 over their last 10 games. However, their most recent game showed promising signs, particularly with Jamie Drysdale making a solid debut. This indicates a potential for improvement and adaptability within the team.

Given the Wild’s injury challenges and the Flyers’ recent display of resilience and quality, the Flyers appear to be the safer bet in this matchup. While both teams have faced their struggles, the Flyers’ situation seems more manageable, and their potential for a strong performance tonight makes them a compelling pick at Moneyline. As always, our approach at BrownBagBets is to analyze current team dynamics, recent performances, and any situational factors that could influence the outcome of the game, guiding us towards the most strategic betting decisions.