Tuesday Night Gold: BrownBagBets Bankroll Plays for 12/19/2023

Frisco Bowl

UTSA vs Marshall

Pick: Over 51.5 / Wager: 3%

At BrownBagBets, we're eyeing the Frisco Bowl with a keen focus on one critical aspect: the defenses' prowess in pressuring the quarterbacks. UTSA's offense has been impressive, particularly with their inside zone strategy, boasting a 57% Success Rate. However, Marshall's defense aligns with the national average in countering this play, keeping big gains to a minimum on just 13% of attempts. Though Marshall struggles with counter concepts, an area UTSA could exploit, Marshall's strength lies in their exceptional open-field tackling, ranking 15th in minimizing broken tackles, which might neutralize some of UTSA's big plays.

On the other side, Marshall faces challenges in protecting their quarterback Pennington, especially with a gap in their offensive line and a low ranking in Havoc Allowed. UTSA, known for their defensive tenacity and high ranking in Defensive Havoc, is likely to cause disruptions in the backfield throughout the game. Marshall's running back, Rasheen Ali, stands out as a key player who could drive the team's progress against UTSA's stout defense against outside zone plays. With UTSA positioned to claim their first bowl victory in Harris' final game and projections favoring them by 11 points, the stage is set for a dynamic showdown. Expect a high-octane game with UTSA's edge in creating rushing explosives and both teams' defenses capable of creating advantageous scenarios for quick scoring. Our pick is on the which has actually come down, we like it at 53 or better, happy to grab it at 51.5, anticipating a game brimming with scoring opportunities and defensive highlights.

NCAAM Plays

At BrownBagBets, today's NCAA Men's Basketball picks are meticulously crafted, leveraging the renowned KenPom projections as our foundational guide. We take these expert analyses and integrate them into our robust projection average approach, utilizing a suite of premium, pay-site resources. This method ensures that our community receives the most comprehensive and insightful picks without incurring the cost of these premium services. We meticulously blend KenPom's advanced metrics with our proprietary algorithms and expert insights, distilling this wealth of information into accessible, actionable betting advice. This strategic approach is designed to pinpoint the most promising opportunities in today's games, providing our community with a significant edge in their betting endeavors.

Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) @ Georgia Southern

Pick: FGCU ML / Wager: 2%

Hampton @ Bowling Green

Pick: Hampton +12 / Wager: 3%

Samford @ Valparaiso

Pick: over 152.5 / Wager: 3%

Morehead State @ Indiana

Pick: Morehead State +13 / Wager: 3%

Western Carolina University @ Vanderbilt

Pick: Western Carolina University +4.5 / Wager: 3%

Western Kentucky University @ California Baptist

Pick: Western Kentucky +5 / Wager: 3%

Miami (Ohio) @ Wright State

Pick: Miami (Ohio) +12 / Wager: 3%

NHL Plays

Rangers @ Maple Leafs

Pick: Rangers +1.5 / Wager: 1%

Wild @ Bruins

Pick: Wild +1.5 / Wager: 1%

Oilers @ Islanders

Pick: Islanders +1.5 / Wager: 1%

Kings @ Sharks

Pick: Sharks +1.5 / Wager: 1%

NBA Prop Plays

Grizzlies @ Pelicans

Pick: CJ McCollum over 3.5 Rebs / Wager: 2%

Pick: Desmond Bane under 32.5 Points + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 3%

Suns @ Trailblazers

Pick: Devin Booker over 7.5 Assists / Wager: 2%

Pick: Kevin Durant over 29.5 Points / Wager: 3%

Celtics @ Warriors

Pick: Steph Curry over 29.5 Points / Wager: 3%