NFL Sunday: Divisional Duels & Playoff Pushes

As the calendar leans into December, the NFL season heats up with crucial divisional matchups this Sunday. The spotlight is on the high-stakes battles between the Eagles and Cowboys, and the Bills and Chiefs, each game a potential preview of the playoffs. It’s a day where every play counts, and we’re here to break down the matchups, offering insights and predictions for your NFL Sunday. From strategic plays to unexpected twists, join us as we dive into the heart of the NFL season.

Jets @ Texans

Pick: Texans -3.5 / Wager: 5% Bankroll (1 PM PLAY OF THE DAY)

Pick: Under 33 / Wager: 3%

Alright, BrownBagBets family, let's break down why we're all over Texans -3.5 as our prime 1 PM play today. Trevor Siemian's at the helm for the Jets, and let's just say, we're expecting a buffet of picks and incomplete passes. The Jets? Well, they've been anything but stellar at home, sporting a 2-5 record and on a five-game losing streak with an average deficit of 15 points. Even the Falcons almost had them last Sunday. But here's where it gets interesting – the Texans, despite being a young dome team, showed some serious grit with that comeback in Cincy.

Houston's game plan? Simple. Stack the box, shut down Breece Hall, and watch the Jets struggle to move the ball. The Texans could practically cover this spread with field goals alone, but don't be surprised if they bring more to the table. With their tight end squad potentially healthier and Tank Dell's recent surge, Houston's offense has some tricks up its sleeve.

And let's talk about that under 33. We've always got our eyes peeled for unders below 35, and this one's no exception. The Jets are in a rough patch, to put it mildly. Scoring seems like a Herculean task for them right now. So, we're doubling down on the under and Texans -3.5. It's a classic BrownBagBets move – calculated, bold, and ready to cash in. Let's do this!

Jaguars @ Browns

Pick: Browns -3 @ +100/ Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Under 34 / Wager: 2%

Love that this game gives us a high value line today at +100. The Browns have been allowing a miniscule 10 points per game at home. This coupled with the fact that the Jaguars are one of the teams on a short week, we just feel strong about this game. Christian Kirk is listed as out, so we go Browns -3 here. We love an under that sits below 35. They hit, and they hit often. Take it with 2% here.

Panthers @ Saints

Pick: Panthers +6 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Pick: Chris Olave over 5.5 Receptions @+107 / Wager 3% Bankroll

We fade David Carr with a massive headache or Jameis Wiston for that matter too can be sent out there and we feel even better. The key to this play is the over/under - having set around 38 tells us that everyone expects low scoring. So if the scores low, how does one team win by more then 6? Seems like great value in this one. Chris Olave has hit 5+ receptions for 7 straight now and 9 of his last 11. + $$$ for over 5.5? We will take it!

Colts @ Bengals

Pick: Over 42 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Pick: Michael Pittman over 6.5 Receptions / Wager: 4% Bankroll

You've seen us go big on his props, right? That's because the guy's got efficiency in his veins and a knack for racking up those points. And let's talk about that Cincy defense – looks tough on paper, but we're not buying it. They're more of a paper tiger, if you ask us. Now, the Minshew-to-Pittman connection? That's as real as it gets. We're betting on the over, folks.

Here's the deal with the Colts: they've been hitting at least 20 points in every game stateside this season. They've got the pace and the firepower to keep the scoreboard ticking. And the Bengals? With Browning steering the ship and Zac Taylor throwing caution to the wind, they're a force to be reckoned with. It's like they've got nothing to lose without Joe Burrow, and they're playing like it.

Neither defense is exactly a brick wall, and the Bengals are trailing at the bottom in yards per play allowed. Check this out – six of the last Colts games have hit 40 or higher, and the Bengals aren't far behind with five of their last six games soaring past 42. The Colts have been consistently smashing past 27 points in five out of their last six. And Pittman? The guy's a reception machine, pulling in 8 or more in his last five games. All signs point to value on this over. Let's grab it and go!"

Lions @ Bears
Pick: Bears +3 @ +100/ Wager: 4% Bankroll

The Chicago Bears, standing at +3 against the Detroit Lions, present a compelling bet for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the Bears have demonstrated a notable uptick in their performance lately. Boasting a 4-4 straight-up (SU) and an impressive 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) record in their last eight outings, they’ve shown they can hold their own. This stretch includes a narrow loss to the Lions, a game where the Bears led until the final moments, and commendable performances against teams like Minnesota and Carolina. Their recent form, marked by resilience and competitiveness, indicates a team that’s finding its rhythm at the right time.

The head-to-head history between these two teams further bolsters the case for the Bears. Despite Detroit’s recent dominance in this matchup, the games have been closely contested. The Bears covered the spread in their last encounter and were on the brink of victory, suggesting they’re well-equipped to challenge the Lions. Additionally, Chicago’s defense, particularly against the run, has been formidable, ranking fourth in the NFL. Their knack for creating turnovers could be a decisive factor in a tight contest. While their pass defense might be less robust, their disruptive play could tilt the scales in their favor.

Lastly, the dual-threat ability of quarterback Justin Fields adds a dynamic edge to the Bears’ offense. His proficiency in both passing and rushing poses a significant challenge for the Lions’ defense, especially given their struggles against mobile quarterbacks. The recent matchups between these teams have been nail-biters, and the Bears have consistently shown they can match the Lions blow for blow. With the added motivation of playoff aspirations, the Bears are not just playing for pride but for a potential spot in the postseason. This drive, combined with their recent form, makes backing them at +3 @ +100 a prudent and potentially profitable decision.

Rams @ Ravens

Pick: Ravens -6.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Pick: Gus Edwards anytime TD @ +120 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Gus Edwards over 36.5 Rushing yards / Wager: 2%

We're eyeing a key factor here – the Rams' defensive line. They're light on rotation and lacking those big 325-pounders that can clog up space. This is where the Ravens, with their gritty run game, can really capitalize. Gus Edwards, their drive finisher, is primed for a big game. Expect the Ravens to deploy heavy personnel packages in the red zone, setting the stage for Edwards to find paydirt. Remember, he's the guy who racked up 9 rushing TDs from Weeks 7-11. In a game likely to be shaped by bad weather and against a middling defense, Edwards is poised to punch in one or two touchdowns.

Now, let's talk Lamar Jackson. December's here, and that means Jackson's running game kicks into high gear. With the Ravens' tackle play not up to par and a downfield passing game that's yet to click, Jackson's legs become even more crucial. We're predicting more designed runs, and with his knack for kneel downs, we could see 12-14 attempts easily. He's been over this mark in 5 of his last 7 games, and we expect that trend to continue.

The Ravens, fresh off a bye and under John Harbaugh's savvy leadership, are a force to be reckoned with. They've historically excelled post-bye, and we see them putting the AFC on notice with a dominant performance. Expect them to keep Matthew Stafford under constant pressure and make a statement. Baltimore's top-ranked defense is set to give the Rams' offense, which has been hot but not fully tested, a real challenge.

And let's not forget about Gus 'The Bus' Edwards. He's the key to breaking down the Rams' undersized and depth-lacking defensive line. Edwards is the trusted workhorse, especially late in the game with a lead. He's consistently gone over his rushing totals, and in this matchup, we see him getting at least 10 carries, likely more around 14.

So, BrownBagBets family, we're all in on the Ravens here. They're set to dominate the trenches and come away with a convincing win. Let's ride with Baltimore and watch the magic unfold!

Buccanears @ Falcons

Pick: Bijan Robinson over 68.5 Rushing / Wager: 2%

Pick: Over 41 / Wager: 2%

Now, we all know the Bucs can shut down the run like nobody's business, but here's the kicker – the Falcons bulldozed through them with 156 yards on the ground in their last face-off, and that was with Bijan barely getting a touch. Fast forward to now, and it's a whole different ball game with Bijan being the main man. He's not just carrying the rock; he's a serious threat in the screen game too. And with Ridder not exactly lighting it up, it's all about putting the ball in the hands of your ace in a critical divisional clash. Plus, the Bucs are on their fifth road game in a seven-game stretch – talk about road weariness! We're eyeing some big plays, especially with the Bucs' linebackers nursing injuries. So, we're hammering the over on Bijan's rushing yards. And get this – the Falcons are a different beast at home, averaging a solid 23 points per game, while the Bucs' D is lagging in per-play stats. Ridder's got better mojo at home too, and even with the Falcons' defense looking a bit shaky, we're feeling confident about the over. Let's ride this wave, kids!

Broncos @ Chargers

Pick: Broncos +3 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Over 44 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

We love this play for sure at BrownBagBets. The Chargers entire team relies solely on offense, and particularly the offense that flies threw the air, and they will be up against a strong Broncos secondary should absolutely be able to hold this down. We like the defense here so much that we could also see a play for the Broncos ML, but we go +3 to be conservative. An 8% play on one game is because we just see so much value on this one. Both of these teams are at the bottom of the NFL in defensive statistics. We see them both having success moving the ball here. The over is the play!

Vikings @ Raiders

Pick: Josh Jacobs over 71.5 Yards Rushing / Wager: 2%

Pick: Vikings -3 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Josh Jacobs over 18.5 rushing attempts / Wager: 2%

Pick: Under 40.5 / Wager: 2%

First off, Jacobs is the heart and soul of the Raiders' offense, gobbling up a whopping 48% of all their touches. Coming out of a bye and with playoff aspirations hanging in the balance, expect Jacobs to be the focal point. The Raiders know their winning formula – feed Jacobs the ball. They boast a stellar 22-7 record when he rushes at least 20 times. That's not just a stat; it's a blueprint for victory. Jacobs is set to be a workhorse in this game, potentially hitting 25 carries against a solid but not impenetrable Vikings run defense.

Now, let's talk game dynamics. The Raiders, especially at home, have shown a penchant for a more controlled, methodical offensive approach. This plays perfectly into our hands with the under 40.5 bet. With Maxx Crosby back in action and the Vikings' Aiden O'Connell facing off against Josh Dobbs, expect a game dominated by defense and ground control. Both teams have a history of keeping the score low, with the Raiders scoring 17 or less in their last three and the Vikings excelling in limiting offensive touchdowns recently.

But here's the kicker – Justin Jefferson's return for the Vikings. This guy is a game-changer, and his presence alone gives the Vikings the edge they need to not only win but cover the spread. The Raiders will lean heavily on Jacobs, but the Vikings have the firepower to break through and secure a win.

So, there you have it. We're banking on Jacobs to carry the load and rack up those rushing attempts and yards, while also playing a pivotal role in keeping the score under. And with the Vikings' added offensive spark, we're confident in them covering the spread. Let's get ready for a clash where strategy meets opportunity, and as always, let's bet smart.

Seahawks @ 49ers

Pick: George Kittle over 4.5 Receptions @ +116 / Wager: 3%

Kittle has seen more and more of the ball as the season has worn on and just saw 5 targets at Seattle on Thanksgiving, He catches 82% of all balls that come his way at home, and Purdy likes to look for him at home. He averages 5.6 catches/game at home and is only two weeks removed from an 8 catch game in their last contest at home. He had 9 grabs in the previous home game to that.

NCAAM Sunday Plays

Colorado @ Miami (NCAAM Play of the Day)

Pick: Miami ML / Wager: 5%

Just really love Laranaga at home in this spot. His teams are always so well prepared. Colorado is 0-3 ATS this year against top 100 teams, and this line has sharp movement taking it from Miami +1.5 to the current of -1.5. Lean into Miami ML here kids!

Princeton @ St Joe’s

Pick: St. Joe’s ML / Wager: 4%

St. Joe’s basketball seems to be back. And actually so does Princeton. Both campuses have to be reeling right now given both schools start to this college basketball season. The Hawks won the Big Five, took Kentucky to OT, and have so many players contributing night in and night out. Love the Hawks here with a pick ‘em essentially.

Rhode Island @ Coll of Charleston

Pick: Over 148.5 / Wager: 4%

Charleston loves to push the rock, yielding high scoring results consistently. However the defense is bad. Against Fairfield, RI let up 80 points and hit a total over 170. Fairfield ranks very close to CoC.