Positive Night with a +250 Parlay Win Pushes Bankroll to 115%

Another winning night for us here at BrownBagBets! While only three plays were on the table, there was still plenty to celebrate, especially with our +250 same-game parlay win in the Diamondbacks game! That positive 2-1 evening nudged our total bankroll up to 115% for the month. 🙌

September is shaping up to be another winning month for the books! Let’s take a moment to remind everyone: winning consistently in sports gambling over a long period of time is no easy feat. Even the pros aim for a 55% win rate to stay profitable, and that’s essentially an F on an Algebra test! But when you bet with volume, understand the sport, and consistently identify value through key indicators, you can come out on top over time.

At BrownBagBets, we don’t just aim to win a single night—we’re all about winning the month. You won’t win them all, but if you win more months than you lose over a year, that’s when you can confidently say, “I make money from sports gambling.” And that’s exactly what our community is here to achieve. Just look at our track record: January, February, March, July, August—all winning months!

Tonight, we’re excited for what’s ahead. On tap is the only College Football game of the night where Arizona State heads to Texas State, and we’ve got our eyes on it. And of course, we can’t forget the highly anticipated Thursday Night Football matchup as the Bills head south to face the Dolphins. We may even have our first NFL prop play of the season on deck. While we stayed cautious with props in Week 1, don’t worry—by midseason, we’ll be giving plenty each week!

Plus, let’s not sleep on MLB. Our betting in baseball has turned into something special, and we’ve got a few picks lined up for tonight’s action too. Let’s keep the momentum going into this big weekend of sports!

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Line Movement and Value: The line has shifted in Buffalo’s favor, giving us added value on this pick. The Bills have shown a strong run game and clock management, which aligns with their recent performance. Miami’s defense and injury issues provide a favorable matchup for Buffalo. We seized the opportunity to bet on Buffalo early, capitalizing on the extra points now available.

Injury Impact: Miami’s backfield is notably beat up, and this will likely affect their performance. The Dolphins’ injury report suggests that their defense may struggle more with the short week, potentially giving Buffalo an edge in both offense and defense. The short week impacts Miami more significantly, especially considering their injuries.

Game Plan Alignment: Buffalo’s game plan heavily relies on their running game, which helps in managing the clock and minimizing the need for Josh Allen to make high-volume passes. Given the Bills’ ability to control the line of scrimmage and Miami’s defensive struggles, this strategy should prove effective. Buffalo’s running game will likely keep Allen’s completions below the line.

Pick: Bills +2.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Team Strategy: Buffalo’s increased focus on the run game means fewer passing attempts for Josh Allen. Despite a high completion percentage, Allen’s passing volume is expected to decrease, especially with a game plan centered around clock management and running plays.

Defensive Matchup: While Miami’s defense has its weaknesses, it’s unlikely to force Buffalo into a high-volume passing game. The Bills’ strategy to dominate time of possession will further limit Allen’s opportunities to accumulate completions.

Recent Performance: In recent games, Allen has not approached the completions total of 22.5 due to the team’s running game dominance. This trend aligns with the expected game plan and reinforces the expectation that Allen will have fewer passing attempts.

Pick: Josh Allen Under 22.5 Completions / Wager: 1%

NCAA Football: Arizona State at Texas State

Team Form and Recent Performance

Texas State’s recent high from a dominant win over a weakened UTSA has fueled significant hype. However, the Bobcats’ recent success might be overstated given the level of competition. Arizona State, on the other hand, has faced tougher opponents, including Wyoming and Mississippi State. Their performance against stronger teams highlights their potential to outperform expectations, especially with a notable upgrade in their roster.

Key Player Analysis

Arizona State’s RB Cam Scattebo has been a standout performer, rushing for 262 yards against Mississippi State, demonstrating his capacity to dominate on the ground. His consistent performance, including 57 rushes for 346 yards in that game, suggests a solid offensive strategy that could effectively challenge Texas State’s defense. The presence of Scattebo, coupled with a well-rounded game plan, positions ASU to exploit Texas State’s defensive weaknesses.

Home Field and Matchup Dynamics

Texas State’s extended home stand, including their third consecutive home game, may give them a slight edge. However, Arizona State’s recent performances against higher-tier teams and their improved roster strength could offset this advantage. The Sun Devils’ ability to execute a strong running game and manage clock effectively can be crucial in this matchup, potentially disrupting Texas State’s momentum and hype.

Pick: Arizona State +1.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers

Team Form and Recent Performance: The Tigers have dominated the series so far, winning both games comfortably. They are well-positioned to complete the sweep given their current form and the Rockies’ poor performance on the road.

Pitching Advantage: Tarik Skubal, a leading Cy Young candidate, is set to start. His excellent season performance, combined with one of the league’s strongest bullpens, provides a significant edge. The Rockies’ offense struggles against top pitchers, further enhancing Detroit’s prospects.

Rockies’ Road Struggles: Colorado has been notably poor on the road with a 22-55 record and ranks 29th in road OPS. Their ongoing issues against strong teams and pitchers make them a vulnerable opponent in this matchup.

Game Dynamics: Given the Rockies’ road woes and the strong pitching and bullpen support for the Tigers, a -1.5 spread is justified. The Tigers’ current dominance in this series and overall team strength suggest they will cover the run line.

Pick: Tigers -1.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Pitching Performance: The Reds have been struggling offensively, with no more than four runs scored in their last five games and only 26 runs over their past seven. This trend is likely to continue against effective pitching. Jakob Junis, who has recently joined the Reds’ rotation, has been impressive, allowing just one run and three hits over his last 12 2/3 innings.

Recent Form: Sonny Gray of the Cardinals has also been in strong form, yielding only two runs and seven hits across 13 innings in his last two starts. His recent performance mirrors his best form from earlier in the season.

Offensive and Defensive Context: The Reds’ inability to score and the Cardinals’ solid pitching suggest a low-scoring game. The combination of these factors points to a strong likelihood that the game total will remain under the set line.

Pick and Wager: Under 7.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Recent Series Performance: The Athletics have surprisingly won the first two games of this series, which sets up a potential correction. The Astros are poised for a strong performance to balance the series.

Pitching Analysis: Framber Valdez will start for the Astros, boasting a 2.46 ERA at home and having worked 21 consecutive scoreless innings at home. His previous performance against the A’s was dominant, further supporting his potential for a strong showing.

Opposing Pitcher: Mitch Spence, starting for the Athletics, has struggled with a 5.09 ERA on the road. His inconsistency contrasts sharply with Valdez’s current form, giving the Astros a significant advantage.

Pick and Wager: Astros -1.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Pitching Performance: Nestor Cortes has been solid at home, with a 3.19 ERA, providing a reliable presence for the Yankees. In contrast, Cooper Criswell has struggled on the road with a 4.43 ERA and has faced difficulties against the Yankees in their 2024 matchups.

Recent Bullpen Usage: The Red Sox had to use all their high-leverage relievers in last night’s extra-inning game, which could impact their performance and depth in this matchup.

Team Form: As the season progresses, teams that are expected to win are starting to assert themselves. This trend supports a favorable outlook for the Yankees in this game.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 2%