On a Roll: Aiming Higher in Today’s Sports Picks

As we flip the calendar to March, we’re not just welcoming spring; we’re celebrating a hat-trick of winning days right out of the gate! Yesterday was a grand slam, with victories across the board in all four sports we played, nudging our bankroll up by a sweet 8%. Now, we’re sitting pretty at an impressive 116% early this month. But let’s not get it twisted; here at BrownBagBets, we’re not rookies at this game. We’ve been fine-tuning our bankroll management for years, knowing all too well that the real victory lap is reserved for the end of the month. It’s all about the long game for us.

So today, we’re zeroing in on those five slips from yesterday—not to dwell, but to grow. Every misstep is a lesson in disguise, a chance to refine our strategy and come back stronger. With the NCAA basketball taking a breather before the whirlwind of conference tournaments, we’re casting our bets on the NBA and sprinkling a bit of NHL action into the mix. It’s a lighter day, but that doesn’t mean our picks pack any less punch. Let’s dive into today’s lineup and keep this winning streak alive.

Ready for some BrownBagBets magic? Let’s roll into today with eyes on the prize and strategy on point. Here’s to making today another day to remember!

English Premier League: Arsenal at Sheffield United

Pick: Arsenal -2.5 @ +125 / Wager: 1%. Pick: Arsenal Win to Nil / Wager: 1%

It’s showtime at Bramall Lane as Arsenal looks to keep the heat on in the Premier League title race, chasing down Liverpool with a seven-game win streak in their sights against Sheffield United. The Gunners, fresh off a 4-1 dismantling of Newcastle, are just a breath away from the top spot, and their goal-scoring spree of 26 in the last six matches is nothing short of spectacular. With the title chase heating up, every game is a must-win for Mikel Arteta’s squad.

Arsenal’s firepower was on full display in their last meeting with Sheffield, cruising to a 5-0 victory. Despite missing key players, they were leaps and bounds ahead, leaving Sheffield struggling to even land a shot on target. After a mid-season wobble, Arsenal’s winter break in Dubai seems to have done wonders, reigniting their campaign with a flawless winning streak upon their return. With stars like Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard hitting their stride, Arsenal’s attack looks unstoppable.

On the flip side, Sheffield United’s plight couldn’t be starker. Rooted to the bottom with the league’s leakiest defense and a timid attack, their Premier League survival looks a distant dream. Even a managerial change hasn’t stemmed the tide of defeats, with recent routs at home painting a grim picture of their campaign.

As Arsenal sets sights on narrowing the gap with Liverpool, Sheffield braces for what seems an inevitable onslaught. Arsenal’s blend of form, firepower, and ambition makes them heavy favorites to not only win but do so with a clean sheet, keeping the title dream alive and the pressure on Liverpool.

NCAA Basketball: #10 Duke at NC State

Pick: NC State +6

Wager: 2%

Let’s dive into a classic ACC showdown with #10 Duke making the trip to face an NC State team that’s been a bit of an enigma this season. The Wolfpack, who were once considered a shoo-in for the NCAA Tournament, have seen their prospects dim with each conference game. But here’s the twist: NC State has a habit of keeping games close, much to the chagrin of their supporters.

Why should you consider NC State +6? For starters, except for a stumble at Syracuse, their ACC losses have been by slim margins. This pattern of “nearly there” performances suggests resilience, especially against high-caliber teams like Duke. The Wolfpack’s secret weapon could be D.J. Burns, a powerhouse forward who, if he avoids foul trouble, could be the key to neutralizing Duke’s standout, Kyle Filipowski. Given NC State’s penchant for competitive play, they stand a good chance of covering the spread in this storied rivalry. So, as we break down this matchup, the NC State +6 bet is not just a wager; it’s an educated guess based on patterns, player matchups, and the sheer unpredictability of college hoops.

NCAA Basketball: Queens College at Florida Gulf Coast

Pick: over 154.5 / Wager: 3%

Welcome to the ASUN, folks, where the scoreboard lights up like a Christmas tree! This conference is the poster child for offense in college hoops, topping the charts in offensive efficiency, three-point shooting, and treating turnovers like they’re allergic to them. And defense? Well, let’s just say it’s more of a suggestion than a rule here, with a good chunk of the teams not exactly setting the world on fire on that front.

Enter the scene: Queens College versus Florida Gulf Coast, a matchup that promises more ups and downs than a rollercoaster at Six Flags. Queens, with a playing style that’s more fast and furious than a Vin Diesel movie, is all about keeping the pace at breakneck speed. Meanwhile, FGCU usually prefers a more laid-back approach, but history shows they’ve had to buckle up and hit the gas in their previous encounters with Queens.

The regular season gave us a couple of previews, both games breezing past the total, and with tournament stakes on the line, we’re buckling up for another high-octane showdown. Queens doesn’t know how to take their foot off the pedal, and with A.J. McKee leading the charge, expecting anything less than a scoreboard bonanza would be underestimating the firepower on display.

So, as we dive into the A-Sun Tourney, let’s not forget the lessons learned from the regular season. High totals might have scared some off, but today’s number feels just right for a game that’s got all the makings of an offensive masterclass. Fasten your seatbelts, folks; this one’s going to be a wild ride.

NCAA Basketball: Southeastern Louisiana at Incarnate Word

Pick: Southeastern Louisiana -3.5 / Wager: 2%

Alright, let’s talk about one of the Southland conference’s brutal realities: the dreaded Saturday to Monday quick turnaround. For Southeastern Louisiana, the weekend didn’t exactly go as planned, slipping just below the .500 mark thanks to a tough loss against Texas A&M Corpus Christi. But no rest for the weary, as they hit the road again, this time setting their sights on Incarnate Word.

Now, Incarnate Word has been stuck in a bit of a rut lately, with a five-game losing streak that’s about as welcome as a skunk at a lawn party. But here’s where things get interesting for Southeastern Louisiana. They’ve got a prime opportunity to play the role of party crashers on Incarnate Word’s senior day.

So, what’s the play here? Well, we’re backing Southeastern Louisiana to come out on top and cover that 3.5-point spread. It’s a quick bounce-back game for them, and against an Incarnate Word squad that’s been struggling to find its footing, it’s a golden chance to get back on track. Let’s roll with Southeastern Louisiana to grab a win and put a damper on those senior day celebrations.

NCAA Basketball: Delaware State at Howard

Pick: Howard ML (-180)

Wager: 2%

Alright, let’s address the elephant in the room - we usually steer clear of wagers north of -160 like it’s a taboo. Yet, here we are, making an exception on a day that’s light on action. Why the change of heart? Simple. Our calculations suggest the odds for Howard winning this matchup are undervalued, making the -180 moneyline resemble a treasure chest waiting to be unlocked.

Delaware State’s coming off a high, having toppled the MEAC’s top dog, Norfolk State, in their last home game. That victory, while impressive, might just be the adrenaline rush before the calm for Delaware State. Howard, on the other hand, is in a groove, stringing together wins and keeping their MEAC title hopes alive. They’ve bagged three consecutive victories and are looking strong with Shy Odom back on the court after a brief illness hiatus.

With Howard hosting Delaware State for their home finale and carrying momentum from a previous win against the Hornets this season, the Bison are primed to capitalize. It’s not just a game; it’s Howard’s chance to inch closer to a title share. So, while we usually preach caution with high ML bets, today, Howard’s moneyline is where smart money goes. Remember, it’s not just about the odds; it’s about finding value where others see risk. Let’s bank on Howard to deliver.

NCAA Basketball: Eastern Washington at Sacramento State

Pick: Under 143.5

Wager: 2%

Today’s game is not your typical top-vs-bottom matchup in the Big Sky. Sure, Eastern Washington tops the charts with their scoring prowess, averaging 81 points per game, but they’re coming off an overtime marathon against Montana State that must’ve drained their batteries. Now, they’re up against Sacramento State, a team that’s usually found at the bottom but is showing surprising vitality with back-to-back victories, including one against that very same Montana State.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Despite EWU’s offensive firepower, they might find themselves running on fumes, struggling to impose their usual high-speed game on a Hornets team that’s all about keeping things at a snail’s pace. And let’s not overlook the fact that Sacramento State has been leaning towards the “under” in eight of its last eleven games.

So, while the Eagles might be flying high with their scoring, this game could very well see them grounded, unable to push the pace against a Hornets team that’s found some sting in their defense. Betting on the “under” here feels like a smart play, banking on the idea that even the best offenses can be stifled by fatigue and a determined defense. Let’s see if EWU can keep their scoring up or if Sac State’s slow and steady approach wins the race to keep the total under.

NCAA Basketball: Texas at #15 Baylor

Pick: Texas +7.5 / Wager: 3%

In the heart of the Big 12, where every game feels like a mini-playoff, Texas heads to Waco looking for more than just to compete; they’ve got their eyes on a win. Remember the thriller in Austin where Tyrese Hunter’s last-second heroics clinched it for the Longhorns? Well, Baylor’s definitely got that game circled as one they want back. But here’s why I’m leaning towards Texas covering, and maybe even pulling off the upset.

The Longhorns are hitting their stride at the perfect time, winning four of their last six in what’s arguably the toughest conference out there. They’ve found an unexpected spark in sophomore guard Chendall Weaver, who’s been lighting it up from the bench with pivotal performances against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Talent-wise, these teams are neck and neck, contrary to preseason predictions that had Texas a notch above Baylor.

But here’s the kicker: Baylor might still be catching their breath after a hard-fought victory over Kansas, and with guard Langston Love’s knee making him a game-time decision, the Bears could be at a disadvantage. Don’t count out the Longhorns; they’ve got the momentum and the depth to make this a game worth watching. Let’s see if Baylor can hold their ground or if Texas can storm the court with another statement win.

NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets

Pick: Under 207.5 / Wager: 3%

Kevin Ollie’s taking over the helm for the Brooklyn Nets brings a sense of déjà vu from his UConn days, but this time he’s steering a Nets ship trying to find its rhythm post-All-Star break. The Nets, under Ollie’s early tenure, have shown glimpses of tightening up, especially on the defensive end, marking a trend towards lower-scoring games. In fact, Brooklyn’s recent games have consistently stayed under the total, hitting the “under” in all six of Ollie’s games and an impressive 11 out of 12 since early February.

On the other side of the court, the Memphis Grizzlies are grappling with their own set of challenges, mainly on the offensive front. Injuries have taken a toll, and it’s reflected in their scoring, or the lack thereof, with the team struggling to break the 100-point mark in their recent outings. This matchup presents a collision course of two teams finding themselves in a defensive grind, making the “under” a compelling pick as both squads battle it out, each trying to kick-start a late-season push with a focus on tightening the screws defensively.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Bucks -3.5 @ -135 / Wager: 2%

Pick: James Harden over 30.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 3%

Here at BrownBagBets, we’re all about sniffing out those golden opportunities, and today’s matchup between the Bucks and the Clippers is just ripe for the picking. Milwaukee’s been on a defensive uptick lately, really starting to click under Doc Rivers. They’re riding high on a five-game winning streak, and they’ve been covering spreads like it’s their job. But here’s where things get juicy: the Bucks are back on their home turf, where they’ve been near invincible, boasting a 24-7 record. Now, they’re facing the Clippers, who are coming off a tough game against Minnesota and are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Classic setup for the Bucks to capitalize.

Then there’s James Harden. Let’s talk about the art of the bounce-back. Harden’s last outing? Let’s just say it was forgettable. But that’s exactly why we’re eyeing him today. The Bucks’ defense, while solid, has shown some leniency, especially towards point guards. Harden’s history against Milwaukee reads like a highlight reel, making this matchup a perfect storm for him to rack up points, rebounds, and assists. So, we’re not just betting on Harden; we’re investing in his proven track record against the Bucks. It’s all about playing the odds and the history books here at BrownBagBets, and today, they’re pointing us in a very promising direction.

NBA: Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz

Pick: over 240 points / Wager: 2%

Pick: Kyle Kuzma over 23.5 points / Wager: 2%

Pick: Marvin Bagley over 23.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 2%

Pick: John Collins over 27.5 Pts + Rebs / Wager: 1%

Pick: John Collins over 11.5 Rebs + Assts / Wager: 1%

Pick: Taylor Hendrix over 17.5 Pts + Rebs / Wager: 1%

Pick: Deni Avdija over 24.5 Pts + Rebs / Wager: 1%

Folks, we’re looking at a potential scoreboard buster as the Wizards take on the Jazz. It’s like both teams forgot defense at the hotel, setting us up for a shoot-out where the first to 130 might just clinch it. At home, the Jazz turn into offensive maestros, while the Wizards on the road have been more generous than a charity, routinely surrendering 140+. Dive into the stats, and you’ll see a defensive desert as dry as Utah itself.

Kyle Kuzma’s been lighting it up from downtown, and against the Jazz’s leaky three-point defense, expect fireworks. Then there’s Marvin Bagley, seizing the spotlight in a Wizards outfit desperate for silver linings, facing a Jazz frontcourt that’s practically rolled out the red carpet for opposing centers.

John Collins? The man’s been inhaling rebounds like they’re going out of fashion. With the Wizards’ rebounding woes, he’s set for a field day. And let’s not overlook Taylor Hendrix and Deni Avdija, both poised to exploit this high-tempo, defense-optional matchup.

In a nutshell, we’re not just predicting points; we’re expecting a deluge. And with our keen analysis at BrownBagBets, you’re getting more than picks; you’re getting an education in where the smart money should go when defense takes a night off.

NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 12.5 Rebs + Assts / Wager: 2%

Folks, when you’re navigating the tricky waters of NBA prop bets, every detail matters. That’s why we’re zoning in on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Rebs + Assts line tonight against the Lakers. SGA, while a phenom on the court, is hitting a line that’s just a tad too ambitious, especially given his season averages hover around 11.1 combined rebounds and assists.

Here’s where strategy meets sports betting. SGA clocked in 38 minutes in last night’s game, and with the Thunder back at it again tonight, fatigue could play a factor. Plus, in the unpredictable world of back-to-back games, resting stars isn’t unheard of. Even if SGA hits the hardwood, expect OKC’s coach Mark Daigneault to keep an eye on his minutes, possibly dipping further into the bench than usual.

This isn’t just about picking under or over; it’s about understanding the nuances of player usage, recovery, and coaching strategy. At BrownBagBets, we don’t just throw darts blindfolded; we analyze, strategize, and then place our bets. Keep this in mind as you watch SGA tonight – it’s a masterclass in the subtleties of NBA betting.

NHL: Las Vegas Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets

Pick: over 6.5 goals / Wager: 2%

Alright, let’s skate into this one with our eyes wide open. The Las Vegas Knights, despite an epic start to the season, have been finding themselves in more of a middling saga than a championship rerun lately. Post that dazzling 7-0 victory over the Avalanche, their record reads like a roller coaster you’re not sure you want to be on. Now, they’re rolling into Columbus on the back of a form that’s more leaky faucet than watertight defense, having dropped 5 of their last 6 games.

But here’s where the plot thickens and why we’re seeing a value in betting the over. Whether it’s Adin Hill or Logan Thompson guarding the net, Vegas games have been nothing short of a goal fest recently. And with Columbus finding a bit of their mojo back with a solid win over the Rangers and a 5-2 victory against Chicago, we’re not just expecting goals; we’re banking on them.

This isn’t just a hunch or wishful thinking. Vegas’ recent trend screams goals, with a straight run of overs in their last few games. And when you’ve got two teams that can turn a hockey rink into a shooting gallery, the smart money’s on the scoreboard getting a workout. So, strap in, because we’re expecting this one to be a goal-laden affair that justifies our pick and keeps the cash register ringing.