Winning Monday Despite Early Setback, Tuesday Slate Loaded

Overcoming a Setback to Secure Another Winning Monday

Yesterday’s slate got off to a tough start as our biggest play of the day—University of North Florida—fell short in an upset loss. But as always, BrownBagBets bounced back, finishing the day 4-2 and securing yet another winning Monday in November.

This is what we do: stability through the weekend and winning consistency during the week. It’s not about dwelling on a single loss, even when it’s a big one—it’s about staying disciplined and sticking to the process that always brings us back to where we need to be. The progress we’re making week after week ensures that we’ll soon be back to our starting point, and then beyond.

Today’s Slate: Plays Across All Major Sports

With a packed schedule today, we’ve got opportunities across NBA, NHL, NCAAF, and NCAA basketball to keep building momentum. Here’s what we’re looking at:

• NCAAB: College basketball continues to offer strong value plays, particularly as oddsmakers adjust to early-season team performances. Expect us to dig into matchups where the line hasn’t quite caught up to the trends we’re seeing.

• NBA: Tonight’s NBA slate is rich with potential, and as teams settle into their rhythm, we’re spotting opportunities where the numbers and matchups align with our process.

• NHL: On the ice, we’re seeing some competitive games that provide strong edges based on recent form and team tendencies. Our hockey model remains sharp, and we’re confident about tonight’s plays.

• NCAAF: The midweek college football schedule continues, and we’re zeroing in on lines and totals where we see the best value.

Trust the Process and Keep Building

At BrownBagBets, setbacks are always part of the journey, but they never define it. Yesterday’s overall win showed the power of staying steady, trusting the process, and focusing on long-term gains. With plays across all major sports tonight, we’re ready to keep the momentum rolling and work toward another winning week.

Let’s stay sharp, trust the plays, and make it another profitable day!

Game: Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Pick: Under 235.5
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This game is expected to have a playoff-like intensity, with both teams boasting top-tier defensive units. The Cavaliers rank among the best defensive teams in the league, and the Celtics, anchored by defensive stalwarts like Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum, consistently limit opposing offenses. Both squads have demonstrated offensive prowess this season, but when two strong defenses meet in a high-stakes atmosphere, scoring can take a back seat.

Cleveland is also playing at a slower pace than Boston, emphasizing half-court sets, which is conducive to lower-scoring games. On the other hand, Boston has shown a willingness to clamp down in marquee matchups, often prioritizing defensive stops over offensive explosions.

Key Trends:

• The Under is 5-2 in Boston’s last seven games when playing teams with winning records.

• The Under has hit in five of Cleveland’s last six road games.

• In head-to-head matchups, these teams have gone under the total in six of their last eight meetings.

Projected Outcome:

Both teams will focus on their defensive identities, slowing the tempo and limiting fast-break opportunities. Expect a closely contested game with fewer offensive fireworks than the season averages suggest.

Recommendation: Play the Under 235.5.

NCAAF: Akron Zips at Kent State

Pick: Kent State +10.5
Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup between Akron and Kent State features two struggling teams that have long been eliminated from postseason contention. Akron, giving double digits on the road, is an unusual sight. The Zips have failed to cover in their last two games as favorites and haven’t been road favorites in four years, making this spread a head-scratcher.

Kent State, the nation’s only winless team, has been outmatched for most of the season but enters its home finale with the motivation of Senior Night. Head coach Kenni Burns is likely coaching his last game in front of a home crowd and could pull out every trick in the book to secure a competitive showing. While Kent State has been beaten soundly in most contests, Akron's offensive inconsistency limits their ability to pull away significantly.

Key Trends

• Akron: Last double-digit road favorite status was in 2016; hasn’t been a road favorite since 2019, losing outright in that game.

• Kent State: Playing its last home game, Senior Night emotions often narrow performance gaps.

• Both Teams: Have combined for only two wins all season, and neither team has shown the ability to sustain success offensively.

Projected Outcome

This contest is expected to be low-scoring, with both teams struggling to find offensive rhythm. Kent State’s extra motivation at home and the unlikelihood of Akron maintaining dominance as a road favorite should keep the game closer than the line suggests.

Projected Score: Akron 21, Kent State 16

Recommendation

Take Kent State +10.5 with confidence. The emotional boost of Senior Night and Akron's poor track record in favored spots make this a strong value play. Expect a closer-than-expected matchup.

NCAAF: Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)

Pick: Miami (OH) ML
Wager: 3%

Analysis

This MAC matchup carries significant implications for Miami (OH), which is in position to secure a spot in the conference championship game. Northern Illinois, despite becoming bowl eligible last week, has far less at stake and faces potential depth challenges due to key injuries. With this being Miami’s home finale, the RedHawks are well-positioned to take care of business in front of their home crowd.

Northern Illinois:
The Huskies have leaned heavily on their rushing attack, but with top running back Antario Brown reportedly out, their offensive game plan will be hampered. NIU's success this season has hinged on running for at least 190 yards, a feat they’ve accomplished in only one of their last five games. Miami’s defense has allowed that much rushing yardage just twice all year, both against power conference opponents, making this a tough matchup for the Huskies.

Miami (OH):
The RedHawks have been dominant during their five-game winning streak, outscoring opponents by a significant margin. QB Brett Gabbert and the offense have been efficient, while the defense has consistently stifled opponents. Miami’s defensive front, combined with Northern Illinois' lack of offensive diversity, creates a significant edge for the home team.

Key Trends

• Miami (OH): 5-0 straight up in its last five games, with a +84 point differential during the streak.

• Northern Illinois: 1-4 in games where they fail to rush for at least 190 yards.

• Home Advantage: Miami is 4-1 at home this season, averaging 30.2 points per game on their turf.

Projected Outcome

Miami’s balanced offense and stout rushing defense should create enough separation against a one-dimensional and injury-depleted NIU squad. Expect the RedHawks to control the game and maintain their MAC title aspirations.

Projected Score: Miami (OH) 27, Northern Illinois 17

Recommendation

Back Miami (OH) ML confidently. Their superior defense, home-field advantage, and the stakes of securing a title game spot give them the edge in this matchup. Northern Illinois' injuries and lack of offensive versatility will make it difficult to compete effectively.

NCAAB: Drexel at Fairfield

Pick: Fairfield ML
Wager: 2%

Analysis

This matchup pits a defensively sound Fairfield team against a more battle-tested Drexel squad. Despite Fairfield’s abysmal shooting percentage (36.3% effective field goal percentage, sixth-worst in the nation), the line has shifted in favor of the Stags, indicating potential value in backing the home team.

Fairfield:
The Stags rely heavily on their defense, which has held opponents to a respectable 43.5% shooting from the floor. While their offense has struggled, Fairfield’s ability to control tempo and turn games into low-scoring affairs has kept them competitive. This is Fairfield’s first "real" home game against D-I competition, giving them a slight edge in energy and motivation.

Drexel:
The Dragons have played a tougher schedule to date, making them more battle-tested. However, they have shown vulnerabilities on the road, particularly in offensive consistency. Drexel’s ability to capitalize on Fairfield’s poor shooting will be key, but their own inefficiencies might hinder them in what could become a grind-it-out game.

Key Trends

• Fairfield: 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against non-conference opponents.

• Drexel: 1-4 straight up in their last 5 road games dating back to last season.

• Head-to-Head: Fairfield has historically fared well at home against teams with similar defensive profiles.

Projected Outcome

While Drexel appears to have the more complete team on paper, Fairfield’s defense and home-court advantage could allow them to edge out a narrow victory. Expect a low-scoring contest with both teams struggling to generate offense.

Projected Score: Fairfield 61, Drexel 59

Recommendation

Take Fairfield ML. Their defense and the energy of playing their first true home game against D-I competition provide just enough value to justify the play. Contrarian backing of the Stags aligns with the market movement and underlying trends.

NCAAB: Buffalo at Vermont

Pick: Vermont -16.5
Wager: 2%

Analysis

This game features two teams looking to rebound after tough starts to the season. Vermont’s struggles have been surprising for a typically disciplined mid-major powerhouse, but they now return home for their first game in Burlington. Buffalo, on the other hand, is in rebuilding mode and has shown flashes of competitiveness but lacks consistency, especially against more experienced teams.

Vermont:
The Catamounts have underperformed offensively, averaging just 59.8 points per game and shooting an uninspiring 42.3% effectively. However, their hallmark defense remains one of the best among mid-major programs, holding opponents to 64 points per game. Playing at home for the first time should energize the team, and Vermont’s veteran roster is well-equipped to exploit Buffalo’s inexperience.

Buffalo:
The Bulls are coming off back-to-back losses and have struggled on both ends of the floor. After a dismal first half against Bryant, they showed some life in the second half, but they have yet to put together a full 40 minutes of solid basketball. With a roster that’s been heavily retooled, Buffalo has struggled to establish any rhythm offensively or defensively, making them vulnerable on the road.

Key Trends

• Vermont: 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with losing records.

• Buffalo: 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss.

• Head-to-Head: Vermont has dominated similar matchups at home in recent years, particularly against inexperienced teams.

Projected Outcome

Vermont’s defense and the energy of playing their home opener should allow them to control this game. While their offensive struggles are a concern, Buffalo’s inexperience and inconsistency should give the Catamounts ample opportunities to build a large lead.

Projected Score: Vermont 75, Buffalo 55

Recommendation

Take Vermont -16.5. While it’s a big number, the Catamounts’ superior defense and home-court advantage should allow them to cover comfortably against a Buffalo team still finding its footing.

Game: Gardner-Webb at Charlotte
Pick: Gardner-Webb +7.5
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Gardner-Webb comes into this game having faced stiffer competition early in the season, which has provided them valuable experience against higher-level opponents. Charlotte, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, particularly on defense. The 49ers are allowing opponents to shoot an alarming 65.1% from inside the arc, which opens the door for Gardner-Webb’s solid interior attack to thrive.

One area where Gardner-Webb has a clear advantage is on the boards, particularly on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs are an above-average rebounding team, which should enable them to generate second-chance opportunities against a Charlotte squad that has had difficulty boxing out and securing defensive rebounds.

Key Trends:

• Gardner-Webb has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog.

• Charlotte is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning ATS record.

• Gardner-Webb has the edge in rebounding margin and efficiency against interior defenses like Charlotte's.

Projected Outcome:

Gardner-Webb keeps this one competitive, leveraging their rebounding and paint presence to frustrate Charlotte’s defense. The Bulldogs should stay within the number in a tight game.

Recommendation: Take Gardner-Webb +7.5.

Game: California Riverside at Santa Clara
Pick: UC Riverside +9
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

UC Riverside enters this matchup with momentum, having secured a thrilling road win over rival Cal Baptist last week. The Highlanders boast a well-rounded roster, returning much of their core from last season. Sophomore guard Barrington Hargress has been a standout, averaging 19.2 points per game, including a 26-point performance in his last outing. His scoring ability could pose a problem for Santa Clara, especially if the Broncos’ recent shooting woes continue.

Santa Clara has struggled mightily from beyond the arc, hitting just 26.2% of their three-point attempts this season. Key transfer Carlos Stewart, expected to provide a steady scoring punch, has been off the mark, shooting only 15% from deep. His erratic play has already resulted in reduced minutes, and the team is feeling the effects of his slump. With a challenging early schedule, Santa Clara hasn’t found its rhythm offensively, which gives UC Riverside a significant edge in keeping this game within reach.

Key Trends:

• UC Riverside is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with winning home records.

• Santa Clara is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games when favored by 7+ points.

• The Broncos are shooting just 26.2% from three-point range, limiting their ability to pull away.

Projected Outcome:

UC Riverside’s balanced attack and Barrington Hargress’ scoring prowess should keep them competitive throughout. Santa Clara’s offensive inconsistencies, especially from long range, make it difficult for them to cover this large spread.

Recommendation: Take UC Riverside +9.

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 @ +155
Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Tampa Bay enters this matchup with significant momentum after decisive victories over the Winnipeg Jets and New Jersey Devils, where they allowed just one goal combined. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the league’s premier goaltenders, boasting a 2.15 GAA and .920 save percentage. Tampa Bay’s defensive structure and reliable netminding provide a major edge in this contest.

Conversely, the Penguins are dealing with goaltending issues. Tristan Jarry’s return has been rocky, as evidenced by a 5.26 GAA this season and a rough outing against Columbus on Friday. Jarry's struggles amplify the Penguins' inability to manage high-caliber offenses, a significant concern with Tampa Bay’s scoring threats like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.

Key Trends:

• Tampa Bay is 6-3 in its last nine road games against teams with losing home records.

• Pittsburgh has lost three of its last four by multiple goals.

• Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his last six starts.

Projected Outcome:

Tampa Bay’s ability to generate offense and Vasilevskiy’s dominance in net create a difficult matchup for Pittsburgh, especially with Jarry’s ongoing struggles. Expect the Lightning to control the game and secure a multi-goal victory.

Recommendation: Take Tampa Bay -1.5 @ +155.