Momentum Builds: NFL, NCAA Basketball, NBA & More

A Winning Night – Back on Track in January:

Last night delivered just what we needed—a solid 6-3 performance, with success in key spots propelling us to a 14% bankroll increase. The highlight? A clean 3-0 sweep in NBA plays, giving us the momentum we’ve been looking for to start turning January into a winning month.

This is what the BrownBagBets process is all about: staying disciplined, executing on high-confidence plays, and focusing on the bigger picture. Last night wasn’t just a win—it was a reminder of what happens when we trust the system and play the long game.

Momentum Heading Into a Packed Saturday:
Today, we build on that momentum with a big Saturday of sports. From games with NFL playoff implications to power conference NCAA basketball matchups, the board is stacked with opportunities. Add in NBA, NHL, and EPL action, and we’ve got a full slate ready to tackle.

Days like today are where the BrownBagBets philosophy shines: volume betting with discipline, leveraging our indicators, and focusing on incremental gains that stack up.

Today’s Slate – Key Highlights:

• NFL Playoff Implications:

  • Two games that could shape the playoff picture. High stakes mean high focus as we look to capitalize on these critical matchups.

• NCAA Basketball:

  • Power conference games provide plenty of value, with key matchups to dive into and strong betting angles to explore.

• NBA, NHL, EPL:

  • A full slate of action in each league gives us ample opportunity to find plays backed by data and our betting indicators.

Final Thought – Keep the Momentum Rolling:
A winning night gave us a 14% boost and set the tone for what we can accomplish this weekend. With a packed slate of sports today, let’s stay disciplined, execute the system, and keep building on January’s momentum. Let’s crush it today and keep January moving in the right direction.

English Premier League: Newcastle United at Tottenham

Pick: Newcastle ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Newcastle United enters this match riding a wave of momentum, winning four straight league matches while keeping clean sheets in all of them. This defensive resilience, coupled with their attacking prowess, has catapulted them to fifth place in the standings. Newcastle has been clinical in exploiting defensive weaknesses, and Tottenham's current state provides a prime opportunity for the Magpies to extend their winning run.

Tottenham, on the other hand, has been struggling mightily, earning just one point in their last three matches. They’ve slid to 11th in the standings and have only one victory in their last seven league games. Defensive injuries have further exacerbated their struggles, with Spurs conceding goals at an alarming rate. Their once-strong home form has faltered, making them vulnerable against an organized and confident Newcastle side.

The Magpies’ Alexander Isak is in red-hot form, scoring in six consecutive appearances. His movement and finishing will likely cause significant problems for Spurs’ depleted backline. With Newcastle’s attack firing on all cylinders and Tottenham’s defensive structure in disarray, the Magpies have the tools to secure all three points.

Betting Indicators

• Newcastle’s Form: Four consecutive league wins, all with clean sheets, showcasing a dominant defensive and offensive balance.

• Tottenham’s Form: Only one win in their last seven league matches, with defensive vulnerabilities leading to dropped points.

• Head-to-Head Trends: High-scoring affairs, with both teams scoring in nine of the last ten meetings. However, Newcastle’s defensive form could disrupt this pattern.

• Player Spotlight: Alexander Isak has scored in six consecutive matches, leading Newcastle’s attack with consistency and precision.

Projection

• Scoreline Prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Tottenham

• Key Factors: Newcastle’s defensive solidity and Tottenham’s injury woes give the Magpies a significant edge in this matchup.

With Newcastle in top form and Spurs struggling to find their footing, backing the Magpies on the moneyline offers excellent value.

English Premier League: Everton FC at Bournemouth

Pick: Bournemouth ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Bournemouth enters this fixture riding the high of a seven-match unbeaten streak across all competitions. This impressive run includes victories against top-tier teams, highlighting their ability to step up under pressure. The Cherries have developed a reputation for closing out tight games with resilience and confidence—qualities that will be crucial against an inconsistent Everton side.

The Vitality Stadium has been a fortress for Bournemouth, where they’ve earned points in four of their last five matches. Their pressing style, combined with the energy of their home crowd, has often unsettled opponents, creating opportunities for their key attacking players, Philip Billing and Dominic Solanke, to thrive. Solanke’s high pressing and transitional play are particularly dangerous against Everton’s vulnerable defensive structure, which has frequently conceded early goals.

Everton, on the other hand, is struggling for consistency, managing just one win in their last four matches. Their 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest exposed significant weaknesses in both their defensive organization and creative build-up play. The Toffees’ midfield has lacked inventiveness, relying heavily on set pieces and long balls—an approach that plays into Bournemouth’s strengths in intercepting and disrupting opposing attacks.

Adding to Everton’s woes is their underwhelming away form, where they’ve collected just 10 points from their last nine road games. Conversely, Bournemouth’s tactical discipline and attacking intent at home should allow them to capitalize on Everton’s defensive lapses and inconsistent performances.

Betting Indicators

• Bournemouth’s Form: Unbeaten in seven consecutive matches across all competitions, showcasing confidence and momentum.

• Everton’s Form: One win in their last four matches, with key weaknesses in defense and midfield creativity.

• Head-to-Head Trends: Bournemouth has won three of the last five meetings, including a dominant 3-0 win in their most recent encounter.

• Key Players: Dominic Solanke’s pressing and transitional play pose a significant threat, particularly against Everton’s susceptible defensive line.

Projection

• Scoreline Prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 Everton

• Key Factors: Bournemouth’s pressing game, home advantage, and attacking efficiency outweigh Everton’s lack of form and creativity.

With momentum, home-field advantage, and a favorable tactical matchup, Bournemouth is well-positioned to secure all three points against an Everton side lacking consistency and direction.

NFL: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Ravens -9.5 1st Half Spread / Wager: 3%
Pick: Ravens -19.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Ravens have been dominant in first-half performances this season, averaging 18.3 points in the opening halves of their last three games. Their ability to set the tone early makes them an attractive play on the 1H spread, particularly against a Browns team that has struggled mightily on offense. Cleveland has scored just 16 points total in their past three games and could be forced to rely on Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback, neither of whom has shown the ability to lead an effective NFL offense.

The Ravens also come into this matchup with high motivation, looking to avenge a prior loss to Cleveland and solidify their hold on the division. Baltimore is fully healthy and will aim to put this game out of reach early. The Browns, by contrast, are reeling offensively, having scored single digits in three straight games against playoff-caliber opponents. This mismatch is amplified by the Ravens’ suffocating defense and Cleveland’s inability to string together successful drives.

While there is a slight concern about a late-game backdoor cover, the Ravens’ propensity to dominate weaker opponents suggests they should comfortably clear both the first-half and full-game spreads. Baltimore has the firepower to overwhelm Cleveland early and maintain control throughout the game.

Betting Indicators

• First-Half Dominance: Ravens have consistently outperformed opponents in the first half, covering spreads in similar situations.

• Motivation: Baltimore is locked in for playoff positioning and eager to avenge their earlier loss to Cleveland.

• Offensive Mismatch: Cleveland’s quarterback carousel and recent scoring drought make it unlikely they can keep pace with Baltimore.

• Defensive Edge: The Ravens’ defense has been elite, further limiting Cleveland’s already anemic offense.

Projection

1H Score: Ravens 17, Browns 3
Full-Time Score: Ravens 31, Browns 6

Expect Baltimore to come out firing, take a commanding first-half lead, and cruise to a decisive victory, comfortably covering both the 1H and full-game spreads.

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Najee Harris over 45.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 5%
Pick: Pat Freiermuth over 34.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%
Pick: Steelers +3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Bengals enter this game as slight favorites, but their defense remains vulnerable, particularly against the run. Pittsburgh exploited Cincinnati's weaknesses in their first meeting, racking up 520 yards of total offense. The Steelers have shown they can effectively control the game on the ground, with Najee Harris dominating this matchup historically. Harris has averaged 85.5 rushing yards in his last four games against the Bengals and now faces a Cincinnati defense ranked 29th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 11 due to injuries to key defenders like Logan Wilson and Sheldon Rankins. The cold weather and potential for snow in Pittsburgh further favor a ground-heavy approach.

Pat Freiermuth has also proven to be a reliable option against Cincinnati, as evidenced by his 68-yard performance in Week 13. The Bengals have consistently struggled to contain tight ends, allowing 13 to surpass 35 receiving yards this season. Freiermuth’s versatility and connection with quarterback Kenny Pickett make him a focal point in Pittsburgh’s offense, especially in must-win games like this.

The Steelers’ playoff hopes hinge on this game, with a win potentially setting them up for a favorable wild-card matchup against the Texans. Despite the Bengals' four-game win streak, Pittsburgh’s motivation, recent offensive form, and the return of George Pickens suggest they’re the stronger team in this spot. Mike Tomlin-coached teams thrive in high-pressure situations, and the Steelers’ physical edge could decide this contest.

Betting Indicators

• Najee Harris Rushing Dominance: Harris has exceeded 45.5 rushing yards in all four of his career games against the Bengals, averaging 85.5 yards.

• Weather Advantage: Snow and low temperatures are conducive to a run-heavy game plan, favoring Harris’s rushing attempts.

• Freiermuth Target Share: With 68 yards in the last matchup and a favorable tight end matchup against Cincinnati, Freiermuth is well-positioned to clear 34.5 yards.

• Motivational Edge: Pittsburgh’s playoff seeding implications and Tomlin’s coaching history in must-win games favor a strong performance.

Projection

• Najee Harris Rushing Yards: 70+

• Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards: 45+

• Final Score: Steelers 23, Bengals 20

Pittsburgh should control this game with its physicality and balanced offense, securing both the cover and a key divisional win.

NCAAF - Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs Liberty

Pick: Buffalo -3.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Liberty enters the Bahamas Bowl in a challenging position due to significant losses through the transfer portal. Losing star QB Kaidon Salter and top RB Quinton Cooley, who combined for much of the Flames’ offensive production, leaves Liberty’s offense severely weakened. Additionally, the absence of three starters on the offensive line further compounds their issues, making it difficult for Liberty to maintain their offensive rhythm and protect their backup QB.

The Flames’ struggles against the spread have been a theme this season, with a 3-8 ATS record and a dismal 4-11 ATS mark since late 2023. These trends highlight Liberty’s inability to cover spreads, particularly under head coach Jamey Chadwell, who has failed to cover in all four of his previous bowl appearances with Liberty and Coastal Carolina.

Buffalo, on the other hand, is entering the game on a hot streak, winning four straight to close out the regular season. The Bulls avoided major portal losses, maintaining key offensive contributors like QB CJ Ogbonna, who has thrown for 2,244 yards and 19 TDs while adding 311 rushing yards. Buffalo’s stability and momentum give them a significant edge over a depleted Liberty squad.

The Bulls’ defense has also tightened up down the stretch, allowing just 19.5 points per game in their last four contests. Against a Liberty offense missing its top playmakers and much of its protection, Buffalo’s defensive unit should have the upper hand.

Betting Indicators

• Liberty’s ATS Struggles: Liberty is 3-8 ATS this season and 4-11 ATS since late 2023.

• Buffalo’s Momentum: Buffalo has won four straight games and avoided major portal losses.

• Coaching Trends: Jamey Chadwell is 0-4 ATS in bowl games, signaling a continued struggle in postseason settings.

• Defensive Matchup: Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 19.5 PPG in their last four games, contrasting with Liberty’s weakened offense.

Projection

• Scoreline Prediction: Buffalo 30, Liberty 20

• Key Factors: Buffalo’s offensive stability and Liberty’s depleted roster, particularly at QB and RB, give the Bulls a clear edge.

NCAAB: Florida at Kentucky

Pick: Kentucky ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis

This is an excellent situational spot for Kentucky. Florida has benefited from a relatively soft schedule, and this matchup will be just their second true road game of the season, creating a significant challenge in a hostile environment at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats have shown flashes of their potential and are well-suited to neutralize Florida’s biggest strength: offensive rebounding.

Florida ranks second nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, usually giving them a critical edge in games. However, Kentucky counters with an elite defensive rebounding unit, ranking 23rd in limiting second-chance conversion opportunities. This ability to compete on the boards is pivotal, as it minimizes one of Florida’s key avenues for generating offense.

Additionally, Kentucky’s physicality and depth across the lineup should wear down Florida over 40 minutes. While the Gators boast strong rebounding metrics, their guard play has been inconsistent, and the Wildcats can exploit this with their defensive intensity. At -125 on the moneyline, the price is fair for backing a home team with these advantages. If the line moves further, taking Kentucky at -3 or less provides similar value.

Betting Indicators

• Home Advantage: Kentucky is traditionally dominant at Rupp Arena, with a significant edge in crowd support and familiarity.

• Rebounding Matchup: Kentucky’s strength in defensive rebounding neutralizes Florida’s offensive rebounding edge, which is critical to the Gators’ success.

• Road Challenges for Florida: The Gators are inexperienced in true road environments, which could lead to offensive inefficiency.

• Momentum: Kentucky has been trending positively in recent games, showing improvements on both ends of the floor.

Projection

Final Score: Kentucky 72, Florida 67

The Wildcats’ ability to limit second-chance opportunities and exploit Florida’s road inexperience should lead them to a hard-fought home win. Expect a competitive game, but Kentucky has the tools to prevail.

NCAAB: Georgia at Mississippi

Pick: Ole Miss -4.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

This matchup heavily favors Ole Miss, particularly given their dominance at home this season. The Rebels boast a perfect 7-0 record in their own arena, where their effective field goal percentage of 51.8% has allowed them to dictate the pace of games. Ole Miss’s defensive presence has been particularly strong, holding opponents to 63 points or fewer in five of their last six outings. Their ability to defend while maintaining offensive efficiency makes them tough to beat on their home court.

On the other hand, Georgia enters this contest with an inflated record that has been aided by an extremely soft schedule (ranked 328th in strength of schedule). The Bulldogs have only played one true road game this season—a win against a much weaker Georgia Tech squad. Their defensive metrics, while appearing solid, are largely a byproduct of their lower-tier competition. Against a well-rounded Ole Miss team, Georgia’s deficiencies are likely to be exposed.

Additionally, Mississippi has shown a consistent ability to put away teams, winning 10 of their last 11 games by at least eight points. Their balanced approach on both ends of the floor, coupled with Georgia’s lack of road experience, positions the Rebels to comfortably cover the -4.5 spread.

Betting Indicators

• Ole Miss Home Dominance: Rebels are 7-0 SU at home this season, shooting 51.8% effectively.

• Georgia’s Schedule Weakness: Bulldogs rank 328th in strength of schedule and have played just one true road game.

• Defensive Matchup: Ole Miss has held opponents to 63 points or fewer in five of their last six games.

• Winning Margin: Ole Miss has won 10 of their last 11 games by at least eight points.

Projection

• Scoreline Prediction: Ole Miss 72, Georgia 64

NCAAB: Wisconsin-Green Bay at Northern Kentucky

Pick: Northern Kentucky -11.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

This matchup looks heavily tilted in favor of Northern Kentucky, both in terms of form and team dynamics. Wisconsin-Green Bay has been in disarray this season, with morale issues under head coach Doug Gottlieb exacerbating their on-court struggles. The loss of star guard Anthony Roy (25.7 ppg) has crippled an already struggling offense. Roy’s injury follows earlier signs of friction, including his benching in December, further emphasizing the team’s internal discord. Without Roy, the Fighting Phoenix lack a reliable scoring option, and their recent 1-9 ATS skid reflects their inability to compete against even modest opponents.

In contrast, Northern Kentucky is in good form, having won six of their last seven games, including an overtime victory against a solid IPFW team. Guard Trey Robinson has been a standout performer, leading the Norse offensively while providing consistency. Despite a grueling stretch that included four overtime periods over their last two games, Northern Kentucky’s disciplined, efficient style should allow them to dominate Green Bay, especially given the Phoenix’s lack of offensive firepower and defensive cohesion.

The Norse are particularly effective on their home court, where they maintain a defensive edge and capitalize on opponents’ mistakes. Green Bay, with its current turmoil, is unlikely to pose a significant threat, and the 11.5-point spread feels reasonable for a team as functional as Northern Kentucky against a Green Bay side in freefall.

Betting Indicators

• Green Bay’s Struggles: 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games, indicating a severe inability to compete against the spread.

• Anthony Roy Absence: Green Bay is without their top scorer, significantly reducing their offensive output.

• Northern Kentucky’s Form: The Norse have won six of their last seven games, showcasing strong form and momentum.

• Home Court Advantage: Northern Kentucky is reliable at home, with a disciplined defense and efficient offense.

Projection

• Scoreline Prediction: Northern Kentucky 74, Wisconsin-Green Bay 58

NCAAB: Charlotte at Rice

Pick: Rice ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup features two teams on different trajectories, and Rice holds key advantages that should lead them to a win on their home court. While Charlotte has shown flashes of strong play, their offensive inefficiencies have left them vulnerable against disciplined defensive teams like Rice.

The Owls are a standout defensive unit, ranked No. 2 in the AAC in scoring defense, allowing just 65.5 points per game. Their ability to stifle opponents beyond the arc is another significant factor, leading the conference in three-point field goal percentage defense at 28.2%. This defensive prowess should limit Charlotte’s ability to generate easy scoring opportunities, particularly from deep.

Rice’s home court advantage cannot be overlooked. The Owls have been formidable at home, leveraging their defensive intensity and disciplined style of play to disrupt opponents' offensive flow. Charlotte, meanwhile, has struggled on the road, lacking the offensive consistency to compete in tightly contested matchups.

KenPom rankings further validate Rice’s edge, placing them approximately 50 spots higher than Charlotte. This indicates a stronger overall performance across key metrics such as efficiency, defense, and pace control, favoring the Owls in this matchup.

Betting Indicators

• Defensive Metrics: Rice is No. 2 in the AAC in scoring defense and leads in three-point field goal percentage defense, significant against a Charlotte team dependent on outside shooting.

• KenPom Rankings: Rice is ranked roughly 50 spots higher, showcasing a clear statistical edge.

• Home Advantage: Rice has performed well at home, leveraging their disciplined defense to control games.

• Charlotte’s Struggles: Charlotte’s inconsistent road performances make it difficult to trust them in this spot.

Projection

• Scoreline Prediction: Rice 68, Charlotte 62

• Key Factors: Defensive dominance, home court advantage, and superior efficiency metrics favor Rice.

Rice’s defensive structure and ability to disrupt Charlotte’s offensive rhythm should guide them to a victory at home. Backing the Owls on the money line is the prudent play here.

NBA: Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers

Pick: Pacers -2 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Devin Booker Over 25.5 Points / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Devin Booker Prop

Devin Booker finds himself in a prime bounce-back spot after consecutive sub-20-point games. His scoring line, set at 25.5 points, offers solid value in what should be a high-tempo game with a projected total of 231. Booker thrives in fast-paced matchups, and the Pacers’ league-leading pace provides the perfect backdrop for him to return to form. If Bradley Beal (questionable) is unable to suit up, Booker’s usage rate will skyrocket, giving him even more scoring opportunities. Regardless, Booker’s offensive skill set aligns well with the open-court nature of this matchup, making the over on his points line an appealing bet.

Pacers ML (-2)

The Suns’ season has been marked by inconsistency and injuries, with their latest struggles exacerbated by Bradley Beal’s questionable status due to a hip injury. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has yet to find a rhythm for this roster, and the distraction of Jimmy Butler trade rumors swirling around the team only adds to the dysfunction. The Suns have dropped six of their last seven games, and their lack of cohesion on both ends makes it hard to trust them in a tight contest.

Conversely, the Pacers are surging. With wins in seven of their last ten games, including against formidable opponents like the Celtics and Heat, Rick Carlisle’s squad has found its stride. Indiana’s fast-paced, high-scoring offense, coupled with a disciplined defensive scheme, gives them a strong edge over a struggling Suns team.

The Pacers have been a solid team at home this season, consistently covering smaller spreads, while the Suns’ road woes make them an unreliable play in this spot. Indiana’s recent form and stability at home are the key factors that tip this game in their favor.

Betting Indicators

• Devin Booker’s Historical Trends: Booker has historically performed well in high-pace games and averages 26.8 points in his career against Indiana.

• Pacers’ Home Form: Indiana is 8-2 ATS at home in their last 10 games.

• Suns’ Struggles: Phoenix has lost six of their last seven games and has failed to cover in four of their last five road contests.

• Pace of Play: Indiana’s pace is ranked No. 1 in the NBA, setting up an environment for scoring opportunities.

Projection

• Devin Booker Points: 28-30

• Final Score Prediction: Pacers 117, Suns 111

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Damian Lillard Over 23.5 Points / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Damian Lillard is in a prime position to deliver offensively against his former team. While there’s a slight concern about reduced minutes in a potential blowout, Lillard’s motivation to perform against Portland should not be underestimated. He has publicly expressed his mixed emotions about facing the Blazers, which could fuel a standout performance.

At home, Lillard has been highly effective, averaging 25.9 PPG this season. His familiarity with Portland’s defensive schemes—combined with Milwaukee’s high-paced, offense-first approach—provides an ideal environment for Lillard to exceed his scoring line.

Historically, Lillard has thrived in matchups against Portland, averaging 28 PPG in two games last season. With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely drawing much of Portland’s defensive attention, Lillard should have plenty of opportunities to find his rhythm and hit this over comfortably.

Betting Indicators

• Home Court Advantage: Lillard averages 25.9 PPG at home this season.

• Motivation Factor: First game against Portland, which is a significant emotional factor.

• Historical Trends: Lillard averaged 28 PPG against the Trail Blazers in two games last season.

• Projected Points: The model forecasts 24.5 points, providing a slight edge over the 23.5 line.

Projection

• Expected Points: 26-28

NHL: Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames

Pick: Flames ML @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Calgary Flames are in a favorable position to bounce back after a tough 5-3 loss at home on Thursday, as they face a Nashville team playing the second game of a back-to-back. Nashville’s recent 3-0 victory over Vancouver, while solid on the scoreboard, masked inefficiencies as they were out-shot 27-19 and absorbed a grueling 51 hits. Playing on no rest following such a physical matchup could leave the Predators vulnerable against a rested Calgary squad.

Historically, Nashville has struggled in these situations, holding a 1-5 record when playing without rest this season. Additionally, fatigue could be a factor, as their top players logged significant minutes in last night’s contest.

The Flames, despite their inconsistency this season, have shown signs of life at home. Calgary has a capable roster, and this matchup presents an excellent opportunity for them to take advantage of a potentially fatigued opponent. They’ve been competitive in recent games, and their offense should find openings against a Nashville defense that is prone to lapses in these back-to-back scenarios.

Betting Indicators

• Back-to-Back Struggles: Nashville is 1-5 on no rest this season.

• Physical Toll: Predators absorbed 51 hits against Vancouver last night, which could lead to fatigue.

• Rest Advantage: Calgary is rested and prepared, giving them the edge in energy and execution.

• Value at Even Money: Getting Calgary at +100 at home in this situation is a strong value play.

Projection

• Final Score: Calgary 4, Nashville 2