MLB Sunday with BrownBagBets

MLB: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Over 8.5 / Wager: 5%

Explosive Offenses at Target Field

This weekend has been a slugfest at Target Field, with the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins combining for a staggering 37 runs in the first two games of the series. The potent offenses of both teams have been on full display, making it seem like batting practice rather than competitive MLB games. Given the firepower on both sides and the recent trends, it’s reasonable to expect another high-scoring affair in the series finale.

The Astros have been particularly impressive, with their lineup consistently putting up big numbers. The Over has hit in seven of Houston’s last nine games, reflecting their offensive prowess. Key hitters like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman have been in great form, and they’ll look to continue their hot streak against a vulnerable Minnesota pitching staff.

Struggling Pitchers on the Mound

Houston will send rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to the mound, and he’s coming off a particularly rough outing against Toronto, where he was tagged for seven runs (six earned) in just four innings. Arrighetti has struggled to find his footing in the majors, and the Twins will look to capitalize on his inexperience. Given the Astros’ recent trend of high-scoring games, Arrighetti’s presence doesn’t inspire confidence in a low-scoring contest.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, whose recent form hasn’t been much better. His last four outings have all gone Over, indicating he’s been prone to giving up runs. The Astros’ potent lineup will pose a significant challenge for him, and he’ll need to be at his best to keep them in check.

Expectations for the Game

With both teams’ offenses clicking and the pitching matchup favoring a high-scoring game, it’s hard to see this game not reaching double digits in runs. The Astros’ consistent ability to put runs on the board, combined with the Twins’ recent performances, suggests that we’ll see another game where the bats dominate. Expect both teams to continue their offensive onslaught, leading to an Over in this series finale at Target Field.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Pick: Over 8.5 / Wager: 5%

Consistent High-Scoring Trends

In this series, a clear pattern has emerged, as none of the first eight games have stayed under eight runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have already combined for 30 runs in the first two contests of this weekend set, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring games. The offenses of both teams have been in full swing, making it highly likely that the trend will continue in the series finale.

Pitching Struggles and Vulnerabilities

The pitching matchup further supports the expectation of a high-scoring game. Dylan Cease, who takes the mound for the Padres, has been erratic in his recent outings. His most recent start against Texas was particularly rough, as he couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning, allowing several runs. Cease’s inconsistency and struggles to find his form make him a vulnerable target for the Diamondbacks’ hitters.

On the other side, Arizona’s Ryne Nelson has also faced difficulties, particularly in his recent start at Petco Park last month. Nelson was shelled for six runs (five earned) in just 3 ⅓ innings. Given these recent performances, both pitchers appear likely to concede runs, adding to the potential for a high-scoring affair.

Offensive Firepower

Both the Diamondbacks and Padres have showcased their offensive capabilities throughout this series. With hitters finding their groove and taking advantage of pitching vulnerabilities, we can expect the bats to continue their dominance in the rubber game. The combination of struggling pitchers and potent offenses makes the Over 8.5 runs a strong bet for this matchup.

Expectations for the Game

Considering the series' trend and the pitching vulnerabilities, it is reasonable to expect another high-scoring game. The consistent ability of both teams to produce runs, coupled with the struggles of Cease and Nelson on the mound, points to a continuation of the Over trend. Look for another game with plenty of offensive action, leading to an Over 8.5 total in this final matchup of the series.

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Dodgers ML / Wager: 5%

Justin Wrobleski’s Promising Debut

Justin Wrobleski will make his MLB debut for the Dodgers, and the left-hander is well-positioned to excel against a Milwaukee Brewers offense that has been inconsistent against lefties. The Brewers have a below-average 91 OPS+ against left-handed pitching this season, which further drops to 93 OPS+ over the last 28 days. Wrobleski has demonstrated impressive control and strikeout ability across two levels in the minors this year, boasting a K:BB ratio of 4.91 and striking out 17 batters in his last two Triple-A starts. His ability to manage walks and generate strikeouts should serve him well in his debut against a Brewers lineup that has struggled to maintain offensive consistency.

Dodgers’ Offensive Advantage

On the other side, Dallas Keuchel has not been effective in his two starts since joining the Brewers. The veteran left-hander faces a daunting challenge against a potent Dodgers offense that has excelled against left-handed pitching, registering a 128 OPS+ against southpaws. The Dodgers’ lineup is stacked with hitters who can exploit Keuchel’s vulnerabilities, making it likely that they will provide ample run support for Wrobleski.

Recent Performance and Statistical Edge

The Dodgers have been one of the most consistent and powerful teams offensively this season. They have the firepower to capitalize on Keuchel’s struggles, particularly given his recent form. The Brewers’ recent offensive performance against left-handed pitching does not inspire confidence, while the Dodgers’ ability to hit lefties hard gives them a significant edge.

Expectations for the Game

Considering Wrobleski’s promising strikeout-to-walk ratio and the Dodgers’ offensive prowess against left-handed pitching, backing the Dodgers on the moneyline appears to be a solid bet. Keuchel’s recent form and the Brewers’ struggles against lefties further bolster this pick. Both the full game and first-five moneylines are appealing options, but the full game moneyline is particularly strong given the Dodgers’ overall team strength and bullpen depth. Expect the Dodgers to leverage their offensive and pitching advantages to secure a victory in this matchup.​