MLB Betting Picks for Tonight – Rebounding from the Weekend

After a tough weekend, Monday night was a much-needed rebound for us at BrownBagBets. While there weren’t a ton of plays on the board, we made them count. Our biggest win came with our Monday Night Football pick as the 49ers covered, setting the tone for the week ahead.

Tonight, the focus shifts solely to MLB as we dive into a full slate of games. With October playoff baseball on the horizon, we’re excited for what lies ahead and ready to keep the momentum going.

As always, we’ll continue using our data-driven approach to find the best opportunities. Let’s stay sharp, stick to the plan, and aim for another winning night!

MLB: Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Parlay Play)

Pitching Matchup

Cody Bradford has been a reliable pitcher for the Rangers, allowing few runs and seeing his last five starts stay under the total. However, he hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks this season. The Diamondbacks are known for their high-scoring games, with the most overs in baseball at 60%. Bradford’s 4.85 ERA and Arizona’s strong performance against left-handers (leading in BA and second in OPS against lefties) suggest they could exploit this matchup.

Merrill Kelly’s Performance

Merrill Kelly, starting for the Diamondbacks, has shown a tendency for high-scoring games, going over in four of his last five starts. Despite a recent loss in San Francisco, Kelly has a 3.10 ERA at home and is 2-0 against the Rangers. His ability to contribute to high-scoring games aligns well with Arizona’s strong offensive capabilities.

Game Dynamics

The Diamondbacks’ average of 10.2 runs per game in afternoon games and their strong performance against left-handed pitching, combined with the absence of Rangers’ catcher Jonah Heim, enhances the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. Arizona’s offensive strength and Kelly’s consistent performance support a parlay of Diamondbacks winning and the total going over.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML + Over 8.5 @ +210 / Wager: 1%

MLB: New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays

Starting Pitcher Analysis

David Peterson has been a critical component of the Mets’ recent success, with a 14-3 record when he starts and a 2.68 ERA on the road. His ability to consistently limit opposing offenses is evident from his performance post-All-Star break, where he has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. This strong pitching form supports the bet on the Mets -1.5, as Peterson’s dominance suggests a higher likelihood of the Mets winning by at least two runs.

Team Performance Trends

The Mets have been exceptional in games started by Peterson, going 8-1 in his road appearances with seven of those wins by two or more runs. This trend highlights their ability to secure significant victories when Peterson is on the mound. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have struggled in Interleague play (16-22) and against left-handed pitchers (13-18), which plays into Peterson’s strengths and further supports the Mets covering the -1.5 run line.

Opposing Pitcher Analysis

Chris Bassitt has had difficulties at home, holding a 4.78 ERA. He tends to allow runners on base frequently, which could be exploited by the Mets, especially given their current form. Despite his ability to minimize damage, Bassitt’s inconsistency at home adds confidence to betting against him in this matchup.

Game Total Considerations

The Under 8 runs is a strong consideration due to Peterson’s recent form in keeping runs low and Bassitt’s tendency to allow base runners but manage to limit the damage. Peterson’s control and the Mets’ ability to capitalize on Bassitt’s weaknesses suggest a lower-scoring game, reinforcing the value of betting the Under.

Pick: Mets -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Under 8 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

Team Motivation

The Orioles are in a critical position and need to elevate their play to remain in the playoff race. Despite losing their last three games, they are poised to refocus and perform as though every game is a playoff game. This urgency can often fuel a team’s performance, making the Orioles a strong pick to bounce back.

Pitching Analysis

Albert Suarez has shown resilience, winning three of his last four starts, although he did struggle in one game against the White Sox. Nonetheless, his overall form suggests he can lead the Orioles to victory. On the other hand, Kutter Crawford has been unlucky, losing his last four starts despite solid performances. His bad luck could continue, especially if the Orioles capitalize on his inconsistency.

Recent Trends

Suarez’s recent win streak, combined with Crawford’s poor results, supports the likelihood of an Orioles win. The Red Sox’s recent struggles with Crawford on the mound add to the case for backing Baltimore.

Game Dynamics

The Orioles’ determination to get back into the playoff hunt, coupled with Suarez’s current form and Crawford’s ongoing difficulties, provides a solid foundation for picking the Orioles. They are likely to capitalize on their opportunity to turn around their losing streak.

Pick: Orioles ML @ +120 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Pitching Matchup

Rhett Lowder, the rookie pitcher for the Reds, has shown impressive form with a scoreless performance against the Houston Astros and allowing just one run through ten innings. However, rookie pitchers can be unpredictable, especially when facing established opponents. On the other hand, Andre Pallante has had notable success against the Reds, with two of his six wins this season coming against them. This experience advantage leans favorably towards the Cardinals in this matchup.

Team Performance Trends

The Cardinals have been effective against the Reds this season, with Pallante contributing to their success. His track record against Cincinnati suggests that the Cardinals are well-positioned to win in a close game. Additionally, the Cardinals’ ability to leverage their experience against rookie pitchers enhances their likelihood of securing a victory.

Recent Form and Home Advantage

The Reds’ rookie pitchers, while promising, are still navigating the challenges of major league play, particularly in high-pressure situations. The Cardinals, benefiting from home field advantage, are more adept at exploiting these vulnerabilities. This dynamic supports the bet on the Cardinals’ money line, considering their proven ability to perform in such scenarios.

Game Dynamics

Given the rookie status of Lowder and Pallante’s previous successes against the Reds, the game is expected to be competitive but ultimately tilt in favor of the Cardinals. This evaluation suggests that the Cardinals have the edge in a tight contest, making them a solid pick for the money line.

Pick: Cardinals ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pitching Matchup

The matchup features two Japanese pitchers, Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which is drawing significant attention. Yamamoto returns from a nearly three-month stint on the injured list with a triceps issue. His effectiveness and stamina are uncertain, making him a potential risk factor. Conversely, Imanaga has been in excellent form, highlighted by his recent seven-inning contribution to a combined no-hitter against the Pirates. His current form enhances the Cubs’ chances in this game.

Recent Performance

Imanaga’s impressive outing last week is indicative of his high level of play, which could give the Cubs an edge in this matchup. The Cubs are still in contention for an NL wild card spot, adding motivation to their performance. Yamamoto’s recent injury and the potential for reduced effectiveness make the Dodgers more vulnerable than usual.

Team Context

The Cubs’ continued pursuit of a playoff spot provides them with extra motivation. They are capitalizing on their pitching strength and Yamamoto’s uncertain status, which could tilt the game in their favor. This dynamic supports the value of the Cubs as underdogs, especially given their competitive edge and Imanaga’s recent form.

Game Dynamics

The uncertainty surrounding Yamamoto’s return from injury combined with Imanaga’s strong performance suggests the Cubs are well-positioned to secure an upset victory. The Cubs’ momentum and critical playoff positioning enhance their prospects for a win.

Pick: Cubs ML @ +140 / Wager: 3%