MLB Game 4 Showdowns & NFL Strategy Tweaks Tonight

Consistency and Loyalty Credits Keep Us Moving Forward

Yesterday came and went with five plays on the MLB front, and we ended the night at 2-2 with one push. We were one run shy of a winning day in the Padres/Dodgers matchup, but overall, it was a night of no harm, no foul. Essentially, we broke even on our return, but, as we always say, breaking even is often a hidden win. Thanks to the golden ticket of our approach, while we didn’t see a profit from the games themselves, we didn't lose a dollar either.

Instead, we gained incremental tier credits through whichever preferred betting loyalty program our community uses. And every seasoned sports bettor knows that these tier credits translate into free cash—making our volume plays a win-win. Last night, we wagered hundreds of dollars without losing a single cent, all while earning rewards from the betting companies for our efforts. This is the underrated yet massive benefit of the BrownBagBets approach to disciplined sports gambling.

Tonight's Slate: MLB Game 4’s and Thursday Night Football

Looking ahead to tonight, we have two crucial Game 4’s in the MLB Divisional Series, with both the Yankees and the Tigers aiming to clinch their respective series and secure a spot in the ALCS. The stakes are high, and so is our excitement as we dive into the value plays available in these matchups.

Meanwhile, Thursday Night Football features an intriguing NFC matchup between two potential playoff contenders and division rivals. The 49ers head to Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks. As we’ve been hinting for the past few days, our NFL strategy is under adjustment, and you’ll start seeing the results of those tweaks in tonight’s game. Expect a fresh approach as we look to turn our NFL fortunes around.

NHL Picks Update: Transparency and Our Relentless Pursuit of Excellence

Lastly, we want to address the inbound messages we’ve been receiving from our dedicated followers asking about our NHL picks. First off, we want to express our gratitude to each of you for your commitment and for holding us accountable. Your trust means everything to us, and that’s why we won’t release anything that doesn’t meet the high standards we hold ourselves to.

Right now, the “expert” we brought on board for NHL picks hasn’t quite delivered the clarity we feel you deserve. We believe in excellence in everything we do, and until we’re confident in his ability to provide picks that align with our standards, we won’t put them out. We’re actively working on this—negotiating hard with the expert’s agent, and we’re optimistic that his savant-like insights will soon align with our goals. Thank you for your patience, and we promise it will be worth the wait.

Let’s get this bag tonight, as we continue to build momentum and strive for excellence in everything we do!

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Under 6.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Tigers ML / Wager: 3%

Offensive Struggles in Recent Games:
The recent performance of both teams has been dismal, with the loser in their last four games failing to score any runs, resulting in consecutive shutouts. The Tigers have emerged victorious in two of these playoff encounters, while the Guardians managed just one win. Cleveland's offense has gone under in their last eight games, and the Tigers have stayed under in their previous five, with eight of the last nine games trending similarly.

Pitching Dominance:
Tanner Bibee has led Cleveland to three straight wins, including a commanding 7-0 victory in Game One. The Tigers, meanwhile, didn't score for the first 17 innings in the series, managing only six runs total. This ongoing trend of scoring struggles leaves both teams averaging just 4.33 runs per game.

Guardians in a Funk:
Cleveland's offense is currently experiencing another funk, having been blanked in their last two outings. They’ve entered a 19-inning scoreless streak, which is troubling as they face elimination in this crucial game. Tanner Bibee's performance, including 4 2/3 shutout innings in Game One, will be critical, but if Stephen Vogt can't ignite the Guardians' bats, their playoff run may end here.

Bullpen Game for the Tigers:
Though this appears to be another bullpen game for the Tigers, manager AJ Hinch has expertly navigated the opener strategy since the trade deadline. His ability to integrate Tarik Skubal into the rotation every fifth game demonstrates the depth of the Tigers' pitching staff.

MLB: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Yankees ML / Wager: 4%

Yankees Look to Close Out Series:
The Yankees have an opportunity to close out the series today, leading 2-1. However, they’ve been struggling at the plate, hitting just .211 as a team. Star slugger Aaron Judge has also been in a slump, raising concerns about their offensive consistency. Despite these challenges, the Royals have not been hitting well either, providing a somewhat level playing field.

Gerrit Cole on the Mound:
Gerrit Cole is set to take the mound for the Yankees. He’s been effective in his last three starts, helping the Yankees secure crucial wins. Although he allowed four runs in five innings during Game One of this series, he has a solid track record against the Royals, having beaten them in three consecutive matchups. Cole's experience and ability to perform in high-stakes situations should work in the Yankees' favor.

Yankees Batters vs. Michael Wacha:

Giancarlo Stanton: Historically, Stanton has fared well against Michael Wacha. Over his career, he has a batting average around .333 against Wacha, with an OPS (on-base plus slugging) exceeding .900, indicating consistent power and the ability to reach base. Stanton's performance in this series supports this trend, as he delivered a clutch homer and multiple hits in Game 3.

Aaron Judge: Despite his struggles in this series (1-for-11 with 5 strikeouts), Judge has shown the capability to hit well against pitchers like Wacha. In previous matchups, he has maintained a slugging percentage near .600 against Wacha, suggesting he could turn his series struggles around against a familiar opponent.

Royals Batters vs. Gerrit Cole:

Bobby Witt Jr.: Against Cole, Witt Jr. has not been particularly effective, with a batting average below .250 in his limited appearances. This suggests that Cole has generally been able to keep him under control, consistent with the Royals' struggles to generate runs when facing high-caliber pitching this season.

Salvador Perez: As a key veteran in the Royals' lineup, Perez has a career batting average under .200 against Gerrit Cole, with limited extra-base hits. His difficulties against Cole have continued in this series, where he has struggled to drive in runs or produce significant offense.

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Picks:

• 49ers -3.5 / Wager: 2%

• 49ers over 25.5 Total Points Scored / Wager: 2%

• Under 49.5 / Wager: 2%

• Brock Purdy over 1.5 TDs / Wager: 2%

• Kenneth Walker III over 18.5 Total Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

• Brock Purdy over 249.5 Yards Passing / Wager: 2%

• Geno Smith over 249.5 Yards Passing / Wager: 2%

49ers to Cover the Spread:
The 49ers enter this game with a strong offensive identity and a clear opportunity to cover the spread. Brock Purdy has been a reliable presence under center, and although he’s had some struggles, his only sub-250 yard performance came in a game where the 49ers dominated with a run-heavy game script. Against a Seahawks defense that has struggled recently, we anticipate Purdy will exceed his yardage total.

High-Scoring Potential:
With the Seahawks missing several key defenders, we expect a surge in scoring. The 49ers will aim to capitalize on the Seahawks’ defensive weaknesses, particularly in the secondary. San Francisco’s offense is one of the most explosive in the league, and with Purdy's arsenal of healthy weapons, we like their chances to score over 25.5 points.

Seahawks’ Offense in a Good Spot:
Seattle’s offense has also shown its capability to put up points, even against tough defenses. Geno Smith has been consistently passing for over 249 yards, and the return of his top wide receivers adds a layer of potency. With Kenneth Walker III's emerging role in the passing game, he should easily surpass his receiving yards total, particularly as the Seahawks may find themselves in catch-up mode.

A Balanced Game Script:
While we expect both offenses to perform, the 49ers' elite pass defense should help keep the total under 49.5. The loss of key offensive lineman George Fant for the Seahawks could hinder their ability to establish the run and put added pressure on Smith. The 49ers' ability to control the line of scrimmage with a mix of aggressive defense and a strong running game could result in a lower-scoring affair.