Overcoming the Slump: How BrownBagBets Stays Resilient with Smart MLB Betting Strategies

Yesterday was another tough day for us, finishing 1-3 in total, making it 3-9 in our last 12 MLB plays. However, it’s important to remember that even in the face of adversity, the BrownBagBets methodology remains strong. Despite the recent downturn, we are still sitting at 133% of our starting bankroll for August. This shows the resilience of our system and the importance of disciplined bankroll management over the long term.

At BrownBagBets, we understand that streaks—both winning and losing—are part of the betting landscape. What’s critical is not getting discouraged by short-term losses but staying focused on the overall strategy that has proven successful over time. It’s about playing the long game, knowing that the tides will turn, and when they do, we’re prepared to capitalize.

As we look to today, we have 10 MLB games on tap, and with the MLB season winding down, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. There’s nothing quite like October playoff baseball, and while we navigate these final weeks of the regular season, our eyes remain firmly on the prize. The stakes are high for teams like the Twins and Guardians, with every game carrying significant weight in the playoff race. This is where the strategy and discipline we practice every day come into play.

Today, we’re back to dissecting the slate, focusing on finding value and making smart plays. The recent struggles only serve to sharpen our approach as we aim to end the month on a strong note. Let’s dive into today’s MLB best bets, predictions, and picks for Thursday, August 22.

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees

Pick 1: Yankees -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 3%

Yankees’ Current Form

The Yankees bounced back with a dominant win in the second game of the series after a tough loss in the opener. Gerrit Cole has returned to form with a 0.79 ERA and 18 strikeouts in his last two starts. The Yankees’ offense, led by Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, is performing at a high level.

Guardians’ Struggles

Cleveland’s offensive performance has been inconsistent, scoring just nine runs in their last five games outside of a high-scoring game one of this series. They’ve struggled against right-handed pitchers, hitting .197 with a .600 OPS on the road in the last month. Gavin Williams has a 5.02 ERA for the season and was hit hard in his last outing.

Pick 2: Under 8 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Pitching Matchups

Gerrit Cole has been effective in his recent outings, holding opponents to two runs or less in five of his last six starts. Gavin Williams has a 2.65 ERA on the road but has struggled against AL teams, allowing only three home runs in 35.1 innings. With the Guardians’ offense struggling and Cole in strong form, the under is a solid play.

Summary

The Yankees are expected to win comfortably given their recent form and the Guardians’ struggles against right-handed pitching. Additionally, with Gerrit Cole on the mound and the Guardians’ offense faltering, the total runs are likely to stay under 8.

Got it. Here’s the revised draft with highlighted sections for the indicators:

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Brewers’ Current Form and Performance

The Brewers have consistently dominated the Cardinals this season, continuing to ride a strong form against them. Despite the loss of Christian Yelich, Milwaukee’s offense has remained effective. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 13 games against quality competition, and they have a strong track record on the road.

Cardinals’ Struggles

The Cardinals appear to be in disarray, with recent roster changes and poor performance on the field. Miles Mikolas has struggled significantly against Milwaukee, allowing 15 hits and 8 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings against them, and he has a 6.03 ERA in his last 7 starts.

Pitching Matchup

Freddy Peralta has been solid on the road with a 3.66 ERA and has delivered two strong performances against St. Louis this season. This contrast in form between the two pitchers further supports backing the Brewers.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics

Offensive Performance

The series at the Coliseum has seen a total of just 10 runs in three games, with each game comfortably going “under” the total. The A’s have received strong pitching from Osvaldo Bido, who has not allowed a run in his last two starts, covering six innings each time. For August, Bido’s numbers include a 1.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.

Rays’ Pitching

Jeffrey Springs has also been effective lately, allowing just one run in his last two starts and going five innings in both. Tampa Bay is on an 8-2 “under” run into Thursday, further supporting the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 8 / Wager: 4%

Recent Performance

The A’s are 18-12 since just before the All-Star break and have shown resilience in this series, even though they’ve lost the last two games. Osvaldo Bido’s recent performances have been impressive, contributing to Oakland’s solid run.

Rays’ Challenges

Jeffrey Springs’ limited season work and a rough road start against St. Louis on August 6, where he allowed four runs and six hits (including two homers), make him vulnerable.

Pick: Athletics ML @ +105 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Current Form

The Pirates have ended their 10-game losing streak and are showing some improvement with three wins in their last six games. They have struggled this season, sitting eight games under .500, but their recent performance offers a glimmer of hope. The Reds, on the other hand, have had mixed results recently, including a sweep by the Royals and a series win against Toronto.

Pitching Situation

Paul Skenes is a key factor for the Pirates. Despite potential fatigue, he has been a standout performer. Nick Lodolo has struggled, evidenced by allowing eight runs in his last start, lasting only 2.1 innings in a lopsided loss to the Royals. This disparity in pitching form supports a favorable outlook for the Pirates.

Pick: Pirates ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Current Form

The Astros have previously dominated the Orioles in their series in Houston. The Orioles have struggled with their bullpen and have an underperforming lineup, contributing to their difficulties.

Pitching Situation

Corbin Burnes has faced significant struggles in August, with a 9.00 ERA and opposing batters hitting .313 off his cutter. His effectiveness has waned, particularly with his changeup and curveball. Despite this, the Astros’ starter is expected to rebound from a rough outing, giving them a strong chance in this matchup.

Pick: Astros ML @ +140 / Wager: 3%