The First Strike: How the BrownBagBets Algorithm Attacks March Madness

The Weight of March Madness: More Than Just a Tournament

It all started as a group of friends, packed into a sportsbook, riding the highs and lows of every single first-round game. We weren’t chasing one life-changing bet—we were living the experience, game by game, knowing that with the right approach, winning more than we lost meant we’d come out ahead.

That first year wasn’t just fun. It was the spark that lit something bigger. We pooled our resources, created a joint betting fund, and realized something important—our strength wasn’t in one person’s picks, but in the collective intelligence of the group. Some of us saw value before the books adjusted, some had a feel for certain sports, and some just knew when a line didn’t smell right. Together, we became something different.

But what started as a personal pursuit evolved into something bigger. People started following our bets. They trusted our analysis. They wanted to know not just what we were betting, but why. And suddenly, this wasn’t just our journey anymore.

That responsibility? We feel it. Every year, when March Madness rolls around, we know this isn’t just about us anymore—it’s about everyone who follows along, who believes in the process, and who bets with us.

We’ve never pretended to be perfect. We’ve learned from losses, adjusted strategies, and evolved every single year. But through it all, the one thing that has never changed is this:

🏆 We play to win the month.
📊 We manage every bet like an investment.
🤝 We trust the process, and we trust each other.

Now, with the biggest betting event of the year upon us, we’re stepping into March Madness not just as a group of bettors—but as a community. A team. A movement.

And we’re damn ready.

Where We Stand: A Bankroll Built for the Madness

If you’ve been with us since March 1st, you already know—this has been a textbook month for the BrownBagBets system.

We didn’t get here by chasing hot streaks or blindly firing bets. We got here by managing the bankroll like an investment, treating every wager as part of a larger strategy. And now, on the eve of March Madness, we’re exactly where we want to be.

📈 March Bankroll: 185% of our starting amount
📈 2025 YTD Bankroll: 229%

That means if you started this year with $1,000, you’re now sitting on $2,290 in total bankroll. If you followed our approach month by month, you’ve already taken out passive income along the way—just like collecting dividends from an investment portfolio.

And speaking of dividends—BrownBagBets Investors are cashing in.

💰 Each investor is taking a quarterly distribution, on average, of over $2,000, while still leaving over $6,000 in the betting account to keep the system running when we get back to work after the weekend.

Now, with the tournament here, we aren’t playing scared. We’ve built this cushion for a reason—to bet strategically, find the best value, and capitalize when the numbers are in our favor.

🏆 Winning March Madness isn’t about riding one game to glory—it’s about precision, discipline, and executing the plan across all 32 first-round matchups.

And if you want to talk shop with us in person, the BrownBagBets team will be live in Atlantic City, NJ, on Thursday and Friday, in and around Caesar’s Palace and Bally’s. Keep an eye out for BrownBagBets jerseys of all kinds—find us, say what’s up, and grab a free gift.

The work is done. The bankroll is built. Now, it’s time to execute.

The BrownBagBets March Madness Algorithm: Finding Value in the Chaos

March Madness isn’t just about the seeds. It’s about who’s overvalued, who’s undervalued, and which teams have real cracks in their foundation that the books and the public ignore.

For years, we’ve refined our approach, digging into the numbers to find over-seeded red flags and under-seeded goldmines—the teams that will underperform and the ones that will make a deeper run than expected.

Key Indicators We Use to Expose Fraudulent Seeds & Hidden Gems

📌 Defense Matters—And Not Just Because Dad Said So
Your dad probably told you that defense wins championships, but here’s the thing—he’s right, and so is the data.

Historically, ranked teams with bottom-tier defenses struggle in the opening round. The tournament isn’t just about who can score—it’s about who can hold their ground when the game tightens up in the final five minutes. Bad defensive teams get exposed, and we use that to flag early exits.

📌 Beware of "Power Teams" That Can’t Close
A dangerous sign we watch for? High-seeded teams that have lost an above-average number of close games.

Think about it: a 6-seed that lost seven games by four points or less is way more likely to crumble under pressure in the tournament than a 6-seed that only lost one or two close ones. Why? Because losing close games is a habit. And when the pressure really turns up in March, bad habits show up in big ways.

📌 Undervalued Underdogs & the Goldmine of Misplaced Lines
Every year, the books get certain matchups wrong. The public bets the big names and ignores teams that are built to win in tournament play.

We live for those moments.

Why We Share It All – Every Play, Every Thought, Every Edge

We built BrownBagBets on one core belief:

Professional sports gamblers aren’t born—they’re built.

We got here by learning, refining, and staying consistent over time. And we don’t believe in keeping our thought process locked away.

We explain why we make every single play. If you don’t see the reasoning behind a pick? Just ask. We’ll break it down for you.

Because at the end of the day, this isn’t just about us winning bets. It’s about all of us winning together.

Now, let’s put it into action. Next up—our first flagged matchups for Thursday and why we’re on them.

Before we dive in, a quick note—our full slate of plays for Thursday will be listed at the bottom of this post. The next couple of picks are simply examples of the level of detail and analysis we put into every bet before locking it in. Let’s get into it.

Game Preview: Creighton vs. Louisville

📍 Pick: Louisville ML (-135)
📍 Wager: 2% of Total Bankroll

🔹 Betting Indicator #1: Creighton’s Turnover Problem

📌 Stat: Creighton ranks 246th in turnover rate this season
📌 Why It Matters: Turnovers kill tournament runs. It’s that simple. Teams that lack ball security don’t just struggle to win—they struggle to cover.

Louisville thrives on pressure defense and forcing mistakes, and Creighton has been coughing the ball up all year. The Bluejays will be tested early and often by a Cardinals squad that specializes in disrupting offensive rhythm. Expect transition buckets and extra possessions for Louisville—a huge edge in a win-or-go-home setting.

🔹 Betting Indicator #2: Louisville’s Home-Court Advantage Without the Name

📌 Stat: Game is being played in Lexington, Kentucky, a short drive from Louisville’s campus
📌 Why It Matters: The NCAA officially calls this a neutral-site game. But let’s be real—it’s anything but.

Travel fatigue, crowd impact, and familiarity with the arena all favor Louisville. The Cardinals will have a heavy fan presence, and in a high-stakes game, even a slight crowd advantage can shift momentum fast.

Creighton, meanwhile, has struggled away from home. They’ve been inconsistent in road environments, and facing a de facto home game for Louisville is another under-the-radar disadvantage that most bettors won’t factor in.

🔹 Final Thought: A Calculated Play on Louisville ML

📌 The Edge: Louisville’s defensive pressure + Creighton’s turnover issues + pseudo-home-court advantage
📌 The Play: Louisville ML (-135)
📌 Wager Size: 2%

We’re backing Louisville here because the numbers—and the intangibles—align. Creighton’s turnover struggles are a real problem, and Louisville has the tools to exploit it in a game that won’t feel neutral at all.

This is the exact type of play we look for in March Madness matchups—one where the books aren’t fully pricing in a critical team weakness and where we can find an edge the public might miss.

Game Preview: High Point vs. Purdue

📍 Pick: High Point +8.5
📍 Wager: 3% of Total Bankroll

🔹 Betting Indicator #1: Purdue’s Struggles Away from Home

📌 Stat: Purdue is 6-11 ATS away from home this season
📌 Why It Matters: This isn’t West Lafayette—and that’s a problem for the Boilermakers.

Purdue thrives in controlled environments, but take them out of their comfort zone, and they start to unravel. They should have lost to USC in the Big Ten Tournament, struggling against a Trojans team on short rest.

Even more concerning? Their recent ATS record. Purdue covered six straight games in January and early February, but let’s be real—those were against bottom-tier Big Ten teams. Since then, they’ve covered just 2 of their last 8, a clear sign of a team struggling to maintain dominance.

🔹 Betting Indicator #2: High Point’s Offense is Legit

📌 Stat: High Point has a Top 25 KenPom offense
📌 Why It Matters: This isn’t a fluke mid-major team sneaking into the tournament—High Point can score.

The Panthers run a methodical, high-efficiency offense, shooting 50% from the field. Not only do they get high-percentage looks, but they also defend at an elite level in their conference, ranking 1st in FG% defense in the Big South.

Purdue’s defensive efficiency is outside the Top 50, meaning they don’t have the defensive foundation to impose their will. If they come out jacking threes, they could find themselves in trouble against a High Point team that can dictate tempo.

🔹 Betting Indicator #3: Purdue’s Recent Trends Show Decline

📌 Stat: Purdue has covered just 2 of its last 8 games
📌 Why It Matters: Tournament play is about momentum, and Purdue seems to be fading.

They barely scraped by in the Big Ten Tournament, and without their usual home-court advantage, they can’t just rely on talent alone to cruise past a dangerous High Point squad.

The Panthers have the offensive firepower to keep this close, and Purdue’s late-season inconsistency makes this an easy decision for us.

🔹 Final Thought: A High-Value Underdog in High Point

📌 The Edge: Purdue’s road struggles + High Point’s efficient offense + Purdue’s declining ATS record
📌 The Play: High Point +8.5
📌 Wager Size: 3%

We’re backing High Point to cover because Purdue has failed to dominate away from home, struggles defensively, and faces a dangerous opponent that can dictate pace and efficiency.

This is a classic case of the books inflating a high seed’s line while ignoring real red flags. We’ll take the points with confidence.

Game Preview: VCU vs. BYU

📍 Pick: BYU ML
📍 Wager: 2% of Total Bankroll

🔹 Betting Indicator #1: BYU’s Size & Rebounding Dominance

📌 Stat: BYU is one of the top teams in the nation in rebounding percentage
📌 Why It Matters: Second-chance points win tournament games, and BYU is elite on the glass.

The Cougars crash the boards as well as anyone, creating extra possessions that wear down opponents. VCU has been strong on both ends of the court, but their lack of size in key spots could be a major issue against a BYU team that feeds off second-chance opportunities.

In a game that will likely come down to efficiency, BYU’s ability to extend possessions and control the tempo gives them a significant edge.

🔹 Betting Indicator #2: BYU’s Three-Point Shooting Efficiency

📌 Stat: BYU is shooting 37% from three
📌 Why It Matters: Live by the three, die by the three? Not quite. BYU lives by the three—and thrives.

This isn’t a team chucking low-percentage shots. They’re hitting at an elite clip and have consistently scored 80+ points per game in a tough conference.

VCU’s defense is strong on paper, but there’s a catch—their efficiency slips in road/neutral settings. That’s a problem against a hot-shooting BYU squad that has proven they can light it up against top-tier competition.

🔹 Betting Indicator #3: Strength of Schedule & Late-Season Momentum

📌 Stat: BYU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
📌 Why It Matters: Momentum is real in March, and BYU is rolling.

BYU has battle-tested wins against teams like Iowa State (twice, including in Ames) and Arizona, proving they can handle high-pressure environments.

VCU, on the other hand, has been more inconsistent and has to travel out west, where altitude won’t be a factor for BYU but could be an issue for VCU.

🔹 Final Thought: BYU’s Strengths Are Too Much for VCU

📌 The Edge: Size + rebounding dominance + three-point efficiency + late-season momentum
📌 The Play: BYU ML
📌 Wager Size: 2%

BYU is playing their best basketball at the right time and matches up extremely well against VCU. Their rebounding advantage, elite shooting, and battle-tested resume make them a strong bet to advance.

They also have Sweet 16 potential, and if they take care of business here, don’t be surprised if they keep making noise in this region.

A quick reminder—our full Thursday slate is Listed now and updated daily prior to Thursday at noon. The breakdowns here highlight the level of depth behind every play we lock in. Let’s dive in.

Updated & Final: 3/20/2025 @ 9:30AM

#9 Creighton vs #8 Louisville

Pick: Louisville Ml / Wager: 2%

#13 High Point vs #4 Purdue

Pick: High Point +8.5 / Wager: 3%

#12 McNeese State vs #5 Clemson

Pick: McNeese State +7.5 / Wager: 3%

#11 VCU vs #6 BYU

Pick: BYU ML / Wager: 2%

#9 Georgia at #8 Gonzaga

Pick: Georgia +6 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Over 150.5 / Wager: 3%

#13 Yale vs Texas A&M

Pick: Yale +8.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Under 141.5 / Wager: 2%

#11 Drake vs #6 Missouri

Pick: Drake +6.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Over 132.5 / Wager: 3%

#10 Utah State vs #7 UCLA

Pick: Utah State +6 / Wager: 4%

#12 UC - San Diego at Michigan

Pick: UC - San Diego +3 / Wager: 3%