Last Call for October: Betting Big to Secure 120%+ Bankroll

At BrownBagBets, we've revolutionized the way you manage your bankroll. Our unique approach allows you to start each month fresh, but with the added benefit of taking home any overages above 100%. That's right, it's not just about the thrill of the game; it's about turning that thrill into real, tangible gains. As we close out October, we're sitting pretty at 120% of our bankroll, giving our community the chance to pocket that extra 20% as we reset for November. It's a win-win, and it's only possible because of the strategic, data-driven picks we deliver day in and day out.

Now, you might notice that tonight's sports slate isn't as packed as some other evenings. But don't let that fool you; there's plenty of action to sink your teeth into. The spotlight is on World Series Game 4, a pivotal matchup that could swing the fate of the championship. And that's not all—we've got our eyes on an underdog in the NHL and a couple of college football games that are too good to pass up. So grab your brown bag; it's time to make this last call for October one to remember.

Game #1: World Series Game 4, Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 8:03 PM, Fox

Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 odds)

Wager: 10% Bankroll

Tonight's World Series Game 4 between the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair. While last night, we rightly called out the humidor at Arizona's home field and it’s ability to suppresses home runs, it may not be enough to counteract the vulnerabilities in both teams' pitching staffs.

Andrew Heaney, the Rangers' starter, has been far from dominant this season. His recent struggles were highlighted in his last outing against Houston, where he was pulled after making just two outs in a 10-3 loss. The Rangers went 17-13 behind him this season, but his inconsistency makes him a liability, especially against a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

On the flip side, Arizona's bullpen, while solid, isn't invincible. The Rangers have a powerful lineup that can capitalize on any mistakes, and the Diamondbacks' relievers will be under immense pressure to even up the series.

The Over seems like the play here, especially given that both teams have shown they can put up runs in bunches. The Texas bullpen, in particular, can't keep hiding its true colors and is likely to contribute to the scoring. With both offenses in attack mode and pitching taking a backseat, we're confident in recommending the Over 9.5 at +100 odds for a 10% bankroll wager. This game his flagging "Over," and we're here for it.

Game #2: LA Kings @ Toronto Maple Leafs, 8 PM

Pick: LA Kings ML +130 odds

Wager: 6% Bankroll

Tonight's matchup between the LA Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs is a prime opportunity for value betting, and we're all in. Three key indicators have aligned for this pick: sharp money favoring the Kings, value odds backed by credible projection models, and endorsement from one of our top NHL expert handicappers. The Kings' performance this season further solidifies our confidence. Despite their 4-2-2 record, they've been competitive in all their games, even against Stanley Cup contenders like the Colorado Avalanche and Boston Bruins. Their two shootout losses also came against top-tier teams, the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights.

The Kings' metrics are equally impressive, ranking fourth in the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Adding to this is goaltender Cam Talbot, who has been solid in his first year with the Kings. He's 3-2-1 with a .905 SV% and 2.72 GAA, and has a favorable history against the Leafs, boasting a 5-2-1 record with a .910 SV% and a 2.71 GAA. So why don’t we play it conservative at the end of the month and go with Kings +1.5? Because at -190, with all the above factors in play, we're opting for the lower wager but higher return off of it versus risking more bankroll for less return. Sure you can get the extra goal, but hockey has empty net syndrome.

Game #3: Nashville Predators @ Vancouver Canucks, 10 PM

Pick: Canucks ML

Wager: 6% Bankroll

Tonight's late game between the Nashville Predators and the Vancouver Canucks offers another prime opportunity for value. Our trusted NHL model gives the Canucks a 67.0% moneyline probability, significantly higher than the consensus odds implied probability of 58.5%. This discrepancy alone makes the Canucks ML a value bet worth taking. But there's more to this pick than just the numbers. Vancouver's key players have been on fire lately. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points in the last eight games, JT Miller has 12, and Brock Boeser has nine.

In the crease, Thatcher Demko has been nothing short of stellar, posting a .936 save percentage and a 1.91 GAA in his last five games. He also secured a win against Nashville just last Tuesday. Adding to this momentum, the Canucks have been dominant against Western Conference teams, winning six straight matchups. All these factors make us confident in backing the Canucks tonight with a 6% bankroll wager.

Game #4: Buffalo Bulls @ Toledo Rockets, 7:30 PM, ESPN2

Pick: Under 49.5

Wager: 10% Bankroll

Tonight's NCAAF matchup between the Buffalo Bulls and the Toledo Rockets is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair. Buffalo's offense has been lackluster, to say the least, while their defense has been solid enough to keep games from turning into shootouts. Adding to the case for the under is the weather forecast for Toledo tonight: cold and windy conditions are expected, which will likely hamper both teams' passing and kicking games.

But it's not just the eye test and the weather that have us leaning towards the under; the sharp money agrees. Despite a higher volume of bets on the over, a significant 34% swing in the money suggests that the more experienced bettors are hammering the under. This kind of sharp action is a strong indicator that we're on the right side of this bet. With all these factors in play, we're confidently wagering 10% of our bankroll on the under 49.5.

Game #5: Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan, 7 PM, ESPNU

Pick: N. Illinois -4

Wager: 8% Bankroll

For our final pick of the night, we're focusing on a MAC battle between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. We're buying this one down to -4 and upping our wager from, what we might recommend to be 6% @ -6, to 8% of the bankroll, as our confidence in this pick is high. The weather in Mount Pleasant is expected to be a chilly 32 degrees, which will likely hinder Central Michigan's passing game. Given Northern Illinois' defensive improvements over the past three games, it's hard to see Central Michigan putting up many points.

Our projections have Northern Illinois as a -8.1 favorite, so we're loving the value at -4. The line has moved significantly since it opened, stretching from -1 to -6, thanks to sharp action. Our trusted betting signals indicate that professional bettors have steamed the Huskies multiple times, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line. With a strong rushing attack and an improving quarterback in Lombardi, Northern Illinois should not only win but also cover the spread. This is a well-calculated risk, and we're comfortable wagering 8% of our bankroll on it.

As we wrap up this vibrant October, our bankroll is flourishing at 120%, and we're laser-focused on elevating that even further tonight. Our selections are a fusion of meticulously vetted opportunities and under-the-radar gems across a diverse sports landscape. Whether you're tuning into the World Series, NHL, or college football, we've got your back. We stood away from the NBA tonight, for a reason, it just wasn’t in the cards. So with all this being said. . . . Let's seize these golden chances to amplify our bankroll, and toast to a month well-played and well-won. Here's to intelligent wagering and excellent outcomes.