BrownBagBets’ Labor Day 2024 Top Plays

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles

White Sox Struggles: The White Sox have struggled mightily, particularly with the starter on the mound, who has been part of a disastrous 2-26 record for the team in his starts. They have also suffered 16 losses by three or more runs in those games, highlighting their vulnerability in such scenarios.

Orioles’ Recent Form: The Orioles have shown signs of improvement offensively and are positioned for a strong performance, especially with Corbin Burnes facing a lineup that should challenge him. Baltimore’s top relievers are available, providing additional support if needed.

Key Player and Spot: With Gunnar Henderson back in the leadoff spot, the Orioles have a crucial player in a key position to set the tone for the game. This positioning could enhance their offensive output.

Pick: Orioles -2.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Mariners’ Recent Struggles: The Mariners have been in poor form, losing 8 of their last 9 games against the Angels since mid-July. This ongoing struggle has further highlighted the gap between Seattle and the leading Astros in the AL West standings.

Pitching Concerns: Logan Gilbert has been inconsistent recently, with a 4.76 ERA over his last three starts. This raises concerns about his ability to perform at a high level on the road, making the Mariners’ price less justifiable.

Athletics’ Recent Form: The A’s have shown improved performance over the last month. Osvaldo Bido, the Monday starter, has been particularly effective with a 1.55 ERA in five August starts. The A’s have won in the last four of those starts, showcasing a solid upward trend.

Pick: Athletics ML @ +120 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Impact of Missing Players: The Arizona lineup is significantly weakened by the absences of Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno, and Lourdes Gurriel. With the first three on the IL and Gurriel out due to injury, the Diamondbacks lack their key offensive contributors.

Dodgers’ Strong Pitching: Jack Flaherty has been effective since joining the Dodgers, with a 3-1 record and a 3.49 ERA. His recent form adds to the Dodgers’ advantage in this matchup.

Struggles of Diamondbacks’ Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled with a 5.06 ERA in four starts since joining the Diamondbacks. This inconsistency could further benefit the Dodgers’ potent offense.

Pick: Dodgers ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds

Recent Offensive Form: The Astros have been hitting exceptionally well, boasting a .277 average and a .778 OPS over their last seven days. This offensive surge is likely to continue against a Reds’ pitcher with significant struggles at home. Julian Aguiar’s 13.50 ERA in home starts further supports this expectation.

Pitching Inconsistencies: Justin Verlander has been inconsistent, with a 3.77 ERA on the road and allowing four runs in three of his last five starts. This volatility, combined with the Reds’ potential to exploit such weaknesses, makes a high-scoring game more probable.

Pick: Over 9 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Astros -1.5 @ +100 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Boston Red Sox at New York Mets

Luis Severino’s Home Advantage: Luis Severino will be starting at home after struggling in his recent road appearances. Historically, home starts tend to offer a better environment for Severino to regain his form. His performance at home could provide a significant boost to the Mets’ chances.

Offensive Support: The Mets’ offense has the potential to support Severino, especially against a Red Sox lineup that has been inconsistent. If Severino can navigate through early challenges, the Mets’ bats could make a difference, capitalizing on the Red Sox’ pitching vulnerabilities.

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

Pick: Over 8.5 / Wager: 4%

Recent Yankees’ High-Scoring Trend:

The New York Yankees have recently been involved in high-scoring games, notably conceding twenty runs to the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. This trend suggests that runs will continue to flow in their upcoming game against the Rangers.

Gerrit Cole’s Mixed Performance:

Gerrit Cole, who will be starting for the Yankees, has had mixed results lately. While he allowed two runs in his last start against the Nationals, his previous encounter with the Rangers on August 10th saw the bullpen giving up eight runs. This could contribute to a high-scoring game.

Pick: Over 8.5 / Wager: 4%