First Full NFL Sunday of Week 1 – Let’s Bounce Back

Yesterday was an unfortunate one for us, finishing 6-9 on the day. It seemed like every close game, last-minute play, or missed field goal worked against us—one of those days where the margins just didn’t break our way. But that’s the nature of the game, and we embrace it as part of the process.

Despite the tough day, our bankroll remains strong, sitting at 113% of where we started September. That’s the resilience of our approach—we don’t chase losses, we manage them, and bounce back when it counts.

Today, we’re heading into the first full Sunday of NFL Week 1, and we’re ready with a slew of picks across multiple matchups. We’ve also spotted some opportunities in the MLB slate that we’ll be tackling.

As always, it’s about the long game. Let’s keep our focus sharp and continue building on what we’ve accomplished. Let’s get this money!

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Injury Impact and Team Adjustments: Arizona’s performance without Kyler Murray last season showed resilience, and with key offensive additions like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals are set to be competitive. Buffalo, however, faces challenges with the loss of standout linebacker Matt Milano and potential absences of Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. These factors could affect Buffalo’s defensive stability and receiving depth.

Historical Performance and Trends: Arizona covered in their first three games last season, demonstrating their ability to stay competitive and cover the spread. This trend could continue with their improved roster. On the other hand, Buffalo’s preseason struggles and injury issues may hinder their performance against the spread, especially given the current line.

Game Strategy and Expectations: Expect the Bills to adopt a run-heavy approach to mitigate the impact of their defensive injuries. Arizona’s improved offense, coupled with Buffalo’s possible limitations, makes a close game likely. The Cardinals’ ability to cover the spread will depend on their offensive efficiency and exploiting Buffalo’s defensive gaps.

Pick: Cardinals +6.5 / Wager: 3%

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Line Movement and Market Perception: The current line reflects significant hype surrounding Chicago’s revamped offense and the debut of Caleb Williams. However, this excitement has inflated the line, potentially undervaluing the Titans’ improvements and their offseason acquisitions.

Team Upgrades and Preseason Performance: Tennessee made several key additions, including Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard, and notable defensive players like L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie. Will Levis’ impressive preseason performance, where he led the Titans to 24 points on just four drives, signals a potent and dynamic offense. These upgrades and performances suggest the Titans are well-positioned to compete strongly.

Game Strategy and Expectations: While Chicago’s new offense is expected to make a significant impact, Tennessee’s well-rounded improvements and Levis’ effective preseason play provide a solid counter. The Titans’ depth and recent acquisitions offer the potential to keep the game close, making +4 a valuable bet.

Pick: Titans +4 / Wager: 2%

NFL: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Line Movement and Market Perception: The line opened at -9 and briefly touched -10 before settling at -7.5. This adjustment is likely due to concerns about Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase’s availability and his impact following a holdout. However, it seems Chase will be on the field, and his presence should strengthen the Bengals’ offense significantly.

Team Analysis and Key Players: The Bengals, led by Joe Burrow, are in excellent shape with Burrow’s health being a major positive storyline, contrasting with his usual injury concerns. Chase’s return further boosts the Bengals’ already potent offense. On the other hand, the Patriots are undergoing a rebuilding phase and are projected to be one of the weaker teams in the league this season. Their offense is expected to struggle against a formidable Bengals defense.

Expected Impact and Strategy: With the Bengals featuring a top-tier offense and a defense capable of containing a Patriots team that is likely one of the league’s least effective, Cincinnati should be able to cover the -7.5 spread. The Bengals’ overall strength and the Patriots’ rebuilding status justify a more substantial spread.

Pick: Bengals -7.5 / Wager: 3%

NFL: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Historical Context

In their previous meeting, which was pivotal for the division title in Week 18, the Texans narrowly defeated the Colts. Despite playing with a backup quarterback for most of the season, the Colts were competitive throughout. This close matchup underscores the potential for another tight contest.

Team Improvements and Key Players

The Colts are expected to be much stronger this season with Anthony Richardson returning as their starting quarterback. Richardson’s presence should significantly boost the run game, which was a critical factor in their last game against the Texans. Shane Steichen’s offensive strategies will likely target and exploit weaknesses in the Texans’ run defense. On the other hand, while the Texans are seen as a team on the rise and a popular pick for the division, they may still be a year ahead of their expected development. The Colts’ improved roster and healthier quarterback situation could give them an advantage.

Matchup Analysis

Last season, the Colts were a missed opportunity away from making the playoffs, despite numerous injuries. With a more complete roster and Richardson back in action, the Colts are well-positioned to perform strongly. The current line of Colts +3 represents good value, considering the Colts were only 1.5-point underdogs at home in their last meeting. This change suggests that the Colts could outperform expectations in this game.

Pick: Colts +3 / Wager: 2%

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Team Performance in September

The Dolphins have shown impressive performance in September games, boasting a 13-4 record at home under Coach Mike McDaniel and a 6-1 record in September overall. Miami’s offense thrives in hot conditions, averaging 33 points per game in games where the temperature exceeds 80 degrees. This trend includes a high 36% touchdown rate on drives and 6.9 yards per play. Tua Tagovailoa has delivered exceptional numbers in such conditions, with a 116.2 passer rating, 29 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions. Tyreek Hill has been a standout, recording 96 receptions for 1,597 yards and 10 touchdowns in these scenarios.

Defensive and Offensive Matchups

Miami’s offense will be a significant challenge for the Jaguars’ defense, which is adapting to a new scheme under defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Jacksonville’s defense may struggle to contain the Dolphins’ high-powered offense, especially in the sweltering Miami heat. The Jaguars have had limited success in similar conditions, with a 2-3 ATS record in their last five games when the temperature is above 80 degrees.

Injury Impact and Key Players

Despite the absence of Bradley Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr., the Dolphins’ defense remains solid with Jaelan Phillips returning after a season-ending injury last November. Phillips is expected to make an impact, enhancing Miami’s defensive capabilities. The Dolphins’ offense, which typically excels at home, should still be formidable.

Pick: Dolphins Team total over 26.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Dolphins -3 / Wager: 2%

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Quarterback and Offensive Impact

The Vikings might be undervalued in early assessments, especially with Sam Darnold at the helm. With Kevin O’Connell’s offensive expertise, Darnold should perform well, potentially improving the team’s rating. Darnold’s presence is expected to be a significant upgrade from last season, and the Vikings’ offense, led by Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones, is poised for a strong showing. Despite Darnold’s previous criticisms, he is supported by a solid offensive line and playmakers, which should enhance his performance in this game.

Defensive Matchups and Team Trends

The Giants are facing a challenge against a well-prepared Vikings defense under Brian Flores. Flores’ blitz-heavy approach is likely to disrupt Daniel Jones, who has struggled at home historically. The Vikings’ recent acquisitions, including Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman, are expected to bolster their defense and create problems for Jones and rookie receiver Malik Nabers.

Home Field and Team Dynamics

The Giants’ home-field advantage is not particularly strong, adding to their difficulties in this matchup. The Vikings’ offseason improvements and defensive strategy should translate into a solid performance against the Giants. Minnesota’s well-rounded team and strategic edge make them the stronger pick.

Pick: Vikings -1.5 / Wager: 3%

NFL Parlay Play: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Game Strategy and Matchups

Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce’s football philosophies emphasize a ground-and-pound approach and strong defense, making the Under a compelling choice. The Raiders are likely to use their run game and defensive prowess to control the clock and keep the game low-scoring. This strategy aligns well with the Chargers’ current vulnerabilities, particularly with their defense struggling up the middle and their offense potentially hampered by Justin Herbert’s lingering foot issues.

Injury and Team Dynamics

Herbert’s foot injury, while reportedly healed, could still impact his performance, especially under game conditions. Coupled with a subpar supporting cast at running back and wide receiver, the Chargers face challenges. This creates an opportunity for the Raiders to exploit their strengths and maintain a close game.

Scoring and Total Points

Given the styles of both teams and the expected defensive battle, the game is projected to stay in the 30s, supporting the Under. The Raiders’ game plan should be effective against a Chargers team that is not yet fully cohesive.

Pick: Raiders +3.5 + Under 42.5 @ +250 / Wager: 2%

NFL: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Team Dynamics and Performance

The Broncos are showcasing strong team unity and execution under new head coach Sean Payton. The rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, has exceeded expectations in the preseason, displaying impressive performance and confidence. Despite being a rookie on the road—a generally unfavorable situation—the positive vibe surrounding the Broncos suggests potential for success, at least for the immediate future.

Coaching and Game Plan

Sean Payton’s influence appears to be a significant factor in the Broncos’ preseason success. With sharp execution on both sides of the ball and a rookie quarterback effectively running the offense, Denver looks promising. This is contrasted with the Seahawks, who are under the new leadership of former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The effectiveness of Macdonald’s approach remains uncertain, adding an element of unpredictability to the Seahawks’ performance.

Prediction and Wager

The combination of Denver’s solid preseason and the uncertainty surrounding Seattle’s new head coach makes the Broncos a strong play. The expectation is for the Broncos to cover the spread and potentially secure a win.

Pick: Broncos +6 / Wager: 2%

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Team Dynamics and Matchup Analysis

The Dallas Cowboys are dealing with significant changes to their offensive line, with two rookie linemen expected to start. This is a challenging scenario against a formidable Cleveland Browns defensive front led by Jim Schwartz. The Browns’ defensive prowess could create substantial difficulties for Dallas, particularly in limiting key receiver CeeDee Lamb.

Quarterback Play and Expectations

Deshaun Watson, the Browns’ quarterback, is expected to perform better this season compared to his previous year, despite his injuries. Given the potential struggles Dallas might face in scoring against a robust Browns defense, Watson’s improved play could be a decisive factor in this matchup.

Pick: Browns ML / Wager: 3%

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Team and Defensive Analysis

The Detroit Lions are significantly stronger this season, particularly on defense, with key additions such as DJ Reader, Marcus Davenport, Carlton Davis, and Terrion Arnold. This upgraded defense is poised to improve from last year, bolstering their ability to contain opposing offenses.

Offensive and Injury Considerations

In contrast, the Los Angeles Rams have seen considerable changes and setbacks. The retirement of defensive star Aaron Donald and the suspension of left tackle Jimmy Garoppolo (for the first two games) are substantial blows. With Matthew Stafford dealing with a hamstring issue and potential struggles in the offensive line, the Rams are vulnerable, particularly with backup options limited.

Matchup Expectations

The Lions, led by a motivated Jared Goff, are expected to perform well against a Rams team weakened by injuries and retirements. The gap between these teams is wider than the current line suggests, making the Lions a strong pick.

Pick: Lions -3.5 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

Team and Pitching Analysis

The Chicago White Sox are in a challenging spot, especially with Chris Flexen on the mound. Flexen’s struggles are well-documented, with the team losing 21 consecutive games he has started, including 18 by more than 2 runs. Their bullpen has been ineffective, often needing to cover extensive innings, which adds to their woes.

On the other hand, the Boston Red Sox, led by Bryan Bello, have been strong in the second half of the season. Bello boasts a solid 3.47 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Red Sox are also fighting for a playoff spot, which adds to their motivation.

Recent Trends

The White Sox have been particularly weak on Sundays, losing 8 straight games on this day by 2 or more runs, with 6 of those losses coming by at least 3 runs.

Pick: Red Sox -2.5 @ +110 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching Matchup and Recent Performance

Patrick Corbin has been in exceptional form recently, delivering his best pitching stretch in years. Over his last four starts, Corbin has allowed only five runs in 22 innings, resulting in a 2.05 ERA. The Nationals have secured victories in five of his last six starts, demonstrating his significant contribution to their success.

In contrast, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been unreliable, as seen in their recent doubleheader sweep loss to the Nationals. Jared Jones, who has returned to the mound recently, has struggled, posting a 6.97 ERA in his two starts since his return.

Historical Trends and Team Form

The Nationals’ improved performance with Corbin on the mound contrasts with the Pirates’ recent struggles. Corbin’s resurgence and the Nationals’ winning trend when he pitches make them a solid pick. The Pirates’ inconsistent play, coupled with Jones’ difficulties, further supports this selection.

Pick: Nationals ML @ +140 / Wager: 3%