June Has Begun: BrownBagBets Daily Picks

June didn’t begin as ideally as we hoped, but at BrownBagBets, we understand that betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Our approach is designed to weather the ups and downs, maintaining a steady course toward long-term success. We remain committed to disciplined bankroll management, careful analysis, and strategic adjustments based on what the data tells us. It’s this resilience and methodical approach that ensure we can rebound from any setback.

Every bet is an opportunity to learn and refine our strategies. When faced with a less-than-ideal outcome, we don’t just press on blindly; we reassess, recalibrate, and adapt our methods. This is what sets BrownBagBets apart—we continuously evolve our approach to optimize our chances of winning, even in the face of challenges. For both our long-term followers and newcomers, it’s important to remember that our goal is consistent, sustainable growth over time.

Today, we’re scaling back our plays to focus on the highest-value opportunities. Our attention will be on a couple of strategic MLB games and the crucial Game 6 of the NHL Western Conference Finals in Edmonton. By concentrating our efforts on these key matchups, we aim to turn the tide and start building momentum for the rest of the month. Let’s take a measured approach and set the stage for a strong rebound.

MLB: New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +125 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Aaron Judge over 0.5 RBIs @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Backing the Yankees and Aaron Judge for a Big Night

The New York Yankees are in a prime position to secure a decisive victory against the San Francisco Giants, particularly given the pitching matchup and Aaron Judge’s hot streak. Betting on the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line at +125 and Judge to record over 0.5 RBIs at +115 offers significant value.

Yankees’ Advantage Against Blake Snell

Blake Snell has struggled mightily this season, failing to pitch beyond 4 2/3 innings in any outing and sporting an ERA over 10. His inability to provide length and his propensity to allow runs make the Yankees a strong candidate to cover the -1.5 run line. Although Snell has had some success against Aaron Judge and others in this lineup in the past, his current form is a significant liability.

Nestor Cortes’ Unique Advantage

Nestor Cortes’ funky pitching motion is especially challenging for teams that are unfamiliar with him. Aside from Matt Chapman, who has 14 at-bats against Cortes, the rest of the Giants have a combined total of just two at-bats against him. This unfamiliarity could lead to early struggles for the Giants’ hitters, giving the Yankees an edge. Cortes’ effectiveness, combined with the Giants’ lack of experience against him, sets the stage for a potential blowout.

Aaron Judge’s Hot Streak

Aaron Judge is in the midst of an incredible hot streak, hitting .396/.509/1.022 with 12 doubles, 15 homers, 29 RBIs, and 29 runs in his last 26 games. Despite Judge’s past struggles against Snell (1 for 16 in his career), Snell’s current form and Judge’s dominance this season provide a strong foundation for betting on Judge to record an RBI. Judge bats behind Anthony Volpe and Juan Soto, increasing the likelihood of having runners on base when he comes to bat.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Under 8.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Rockies +1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 3%

Backing a Low-Scoring Game and a Competitive Rockies Performance

This matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants is primed to be a low-scoring affair with the Rockies having a good chance to keep the game close. Betting on the under 8.5 total runs and the Rockies +1.5 offers significant value based on current form and recent trends.

Under 8.5 Total Runs

The series has been low-scoring thus far, with only five runs scored in each of the first two games. This trend suggests another potential under game in this rubber match.

Austin Gomber’s Recent Form

Austin Gomber has been a revelation for the Rockies in May, posting an impressive 0.68 ERA across four starts. His ability to limit runs has been crucial for the Rockies’ recent competitiveness. Despite Colorado’s struggles on the road, Gomber’s form indicates that he can keep the Giants’ offense in check.

Gavin Stone’s Recent Performance

Gavin Stone is coming off a stellar performance against the Mets, where he pitched seven scoreless innings and allowed only three hits. His ability to shut down a potent Mets lineup bodes well for another strong outing against the Rockies. Given the Giants’ recent lack of timely hitting and their overall struggles at home (13-16 ATS), this game is likely to be another low-scoring affair.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies ML / Wager: 4%

Pick: Over 9.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Bryce Harper HR @ +275 / Wager: 2%

Phillies Set to Sweep and Bryce Harper Primed for a Big Night

The Philadelphia Phillies are in a strong position to complete a sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals, with Bryce Harper expected to play a key role. Betting on the Phillies to win on the money line, the total to go over 9.5 runs, and Harper to hit a home run offers significant value.

Phillies’ Home Dominance

The Phillies have been exceptional at home, sporting a 24-8 record. They are coming off three straight wins, including overcoming an early exit by Ranger Suarez due to a hand injury. The Phillies’ ability to perform at home, regardless of the opposition’s form, makes them a strong bet to complete the sweep.

Taijuan Walker’s Recent Success

Taijuan Walker has been effective for the Phillies, winning five of his last seven starts. These games have also been high-scoring affairs, with all of them going over the total. Walker’s form and the Phillies’ potent offense suggest that another high-scoring game is likely.

Lance Lynn’s Vulnerability

Lance Lynn has struggled on the road, and his numbers suggest that he is due for a rough outing. The Phillies’ lineup, led by Bryce Harper, is well-equipped to take advantage of Lynn’s vulnerabilities. The Cardinals have been hot, but the Phillies’ superior home form has neutralized their momentum in this series.

High-Scoring Potential

Both teams have the potential to score runs in bunches, and with the total set at 9.5, the over is a promising bet. The Phillies’ recent games, especially at home, have been high-scoring, and with Walker’s starts also trending over, this game should follow suit.

Bryce Harper’s Hot Streak

Bryce Harper is locked in at the plate, hitting a home run last night and eight in his last 26 games. He has a good track record against Lance Lynn, with six walks in 16 career plate appearances. Harper’s ability to see the ball well against Lynn, combined with his current form, makes him a strong candidate to hit a home run. The national TV spotlight adds to the likelihood of Harper delivering another big performance.