NFL/NCAAB Sunday

BrownBagBets

Community: All plays today are 3% Bankroll Wager!!!

Let’s get it!

Saints @ Falcons

Atlanta Falcons+1.5

Our analysis suggests that Atlanta is well-positioned to take advantage of the divisional matchup, especially coming off a bye week. Despite some key players being injured, the Atlanta’s overall solid performance, particularly on defense, is important. The Saints we see as slightly overvalued in the matchup, and Atlanta’s offensive statistics are all slightly better, which could be critical in a game with a close projected score.

Over 42

The last three Falcons games have exceeded 51 total points, and three of the last four Saints games have gone well over 42 points. The Falcons have struggled to contain including playing against various quarterbacks who have been able to score at least 25 points against them, despite some quarterbacks playing under challenging conditions. The Falcons’ defense has given up an average quarterback rating of 103.6. The Saints have allowed a total of 102 points in their last four games against different quarterbacks.

Bijan Robinson anytime TD @ +120

For Bijan Robinson’s potential to score a touchdown, that due to the opposing Saints defensive challenges over the past weeks, and their vulnerability against the running game, it would be strategic to utilize a ground game approach. Given the recent performance of quarterbacks and Robinson’s overdue scoring, the odds seem favorable for him to score a touchdown in the upcoming game.

Jaguars @ Texans

Devin Singletary over 48.5 rushing yards

The Texans struggled to run the ball in Week 3, but since then, they have improved their running game, particularly due to Singletary’s performance, who gained 41 yards on just 9 carries. Over the past two weeks, their fullback has seen more play, contributing to a powerful rushing strategy that complements their play-action game. Singletary has run the ball 52 times for a total of 262 yards, presenting significant challenges for the Jaguars’ defense. It advises keeping an eye on the quarterback snaps from under center and mentions the fullback’s participation on the field.

Panthers @ Titans

Derrick Henry over 69.5 rushing yards

Recently, Henry hasn’t been very effective, which can be attributed to various reasons including the lack of a credible passing threat from the Titans and Henry’s own difficulties. However, this might change in the upcoming Sunday game where the Titans, favored to win, will be playing against the Carolina team. The Titans will be able to effectively run the ball, and Derrick Henry, referred to as “King Henry,” is expected to have a standout performance. The betting line is set for Henry to exceed 69.5 yards, with the odds at -127.

Buccaneers @ Colts

Colts ML

The Indianapolis Colts are a solid pick for the Money Line due to several factors: they’re well-rested from a bye week, which is crucial for recovery and strategic planning in the NFL; their defense has been formidable lately, a key aspect in securing wins; the Buccaneers, meanwhile, are likely worn down from consecutive away games and a recent grueling game against San Francisco, not to mention their roster has been hit with significant injuries, depleting their defense. Additionally, the Colts have an offensive-minded coach who is apt to devise a strategy that takes full advantage of the Buccaneers’ current weaknesses. Taking all this into consideration, the Colts’ Money Line is an attractive bet for their upcoming game.

Patriots @ Giants

Saquon Barkley over 98.5 Rushing + Recieving Yards

Since his return from injury in October, S. Barkley has posted the following total yardage figures: 98, 118, 128, 113, 61, and 140. The game where he only amassed 61 yards was against the formidable Dallas defense and occurred during a heavy defeat. Facing a New England defense that’s considered average, Barkley is expected to once again perform exceptionally well and should be a key player in New York’s offensive strategy, likely exceeding 98.5 total rushing and receiving yards.

Browns @ Broncos

Broncos ML

The Denver Broncos’ momentum heading into their latest game makes them a top choice for the Money Line. They’re on a hot streak with four consecutive wins, the best run they’ve had in years, and their defense has been pivotal in this upturn, displaying a knack for takeaways and clutch plays. Despite Denver’s defense allowing significant yardage this season, there’s been a noticeable upswing in their performance, with a substantial drop in points and yards allowed in recent games. Moreover, the Broncos face a Cleveland offense that is struggling without Deshaun Watson and could be burdened further if Dorian Thompson-Robinson, averaging a mere 3.7 yards per pass, continues at quarterback. With Russell Wilson’s experience and the home-field advantage, the Broncos are in a prime position to capitalize on the Browns’ vulnerabilities, especially with Cleveland’s defense tending to concede more on the road. All signs point towards a strategic bet on the Broncos for the win.

Rams @ Cardinals

Rams ML

Love this bolstered by a history of eight wins in their last ten encounters, including a decisive 26-9 victory earlier this season. Matthew Stafford’s high passer rating and impressive yards per attempt from that game suggest he can capitalize on the Cardinals’ defense, which has recently lost its leading tackler, Kyzir White. Even if star receiver Cooper Kupp can’t play due to injury, the Rams have depth, as demonstrated by running back Kyren Williams’ standout performance in their previous meeting. With the Cardinals’ defense weakened and the Rams’ coaching staff having a consistent track record of success against Arizona, the Rams’ Money Line is an appealing bet, especially when factoring in their scoring potential and recent defensive lapses from their opponents.

Bills @ Eagles

Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles, sitting at -3, are well-positioned to cover the spread against the Buffalo Bills. After a decisive rebound from their organizational changes and a dominating performance against the Jets, the Eagles are set to encounter one of the league’s top teams on their home turf. Despite the Bills’ offensive struggles, managing a mere 4.5 yards per play excluding a long touchdown, they couldn’t maintain sustained success, underlined by a mere 16 first-half points in their last game. Philadelphia, however, has an advantageous matchup, facing a Bills team ranked 18th in yards per play. The Eagles’ offense, which was quiet for a significant portion of their last game, is expected to capitalize against the Bills’ compromised defense. With the Eagles’ strong coaching, discipline, and Jalen Hurts’ dynamic playmaking, they have the momentum and home-field advantage to not only win but potentially exceed the expectations set by the -3 spread.

Jalen Hurts anytime TD

For Jalen Hurts to score an anytime touchdown, the proposition appears promising. His ability to find the end zone is proven, with six rushing touchdowns in recent games. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback’s agility and skill in maneuvering in short-yardage situations and the red zone enhance his prospects. Against a formidable Bills red zone defense, the strategic move would be to leverage Hurts’ mobility and strength in a rushing package that has repeatedly proven effective, lending confidence to this bet.

James Cook over 65.5 Rushing + Rec yds

James Cook’s prop bet for over 65.5 total rushing and receiving yards also holds strong appeal. Cook’s performance as one of the NFL’s top rushers, consistently hitting similar yardage marks in recent games, signals potential. His usage in the Buffalo Bills’ game plan, including shovel passes and screens, positions him well to accumulate significant yardage. Considering the need for the Bills to maintain a balanced offense and reduce turnovers, relying on their running backs and tight ends could see Cook having a standout game, akin to recent successful running back performances against the Eagles.

Chiefs @ Raiders

Under 43.5

The ‘under’ bet for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders game, set at 43.5, appears to be a solid wager, considering the historical trends and current form. The under has hit in 17 of the past 21 games for the Chiefs, who have been scoring an average of 22 points per game but have not surpassed 17 points in their last three outings. The Raiders have also contributed to the trend, with their past six home games going under. Notably, only one Raiders game this season has exceeded the over, with the Chiefs’ games hitting under 43 in seven out of ten games. Factor in the defensive prowess of players like Maxx Crosby, who can disrupt offensive drives and provoke penalties, and the under becomes a compelling option for this matchup.

Travis Kelce over 70.5 Receiving yards

Travis Kelce anytime TD

Travis Kelce’s performance this season makes a compelling case for betting on him to exceed 70.5 receiving yards and to score a touchdown at any time in the upcoming game. He’s averaging slightly over this mark with 71.2 yards per game and has already surpassed 70.5 yards in two out of nine games. Although his average receiving yards fall just shy of his average prop bet total, Kelce has managed to hit the over on his receiving yards prop bet 40% of the time in five games. Moreover, with touchdowns in five of his nine games, each being a single scoring catch, the prospects of Kelce finding the end zone again seem favorable, making bets on his receiving prowess and scoring ability particularly enticing.

Ravens @ Chargers

Ravens -3

Gus Edward’s anytime TD

Baltimore’s matchup against the LA Chargers looks favorable, particularly with a -3 spread. The Ravens have an impressive record against the spread when playing away and have been successful straight up and against the spread in their recent games. The Chargers’ tendency to lose close games puts additional pressure on their coach, adding to the sense of urgency and potential for error. With the Chargers struggling to find ways to win, betting on the Ravens to cover the spread seems like a prudent choice.

Gus Edwards stands out as a strong bet for an anytime touchdown scorer. He has consistently found the end zone for the Ravens, scoring in each of his last five games, capitalizing on his carries inside the five-yard line. Given that the Ravens are facing a Chargers defense that has been generous in allowing passing yards, Baltimore’s likely ease in moving the ball should present Edwards with ample chances to score, making the +110 odds for an Edwards anytime touchdown an attractive bet.