High-Stakes Sunday: NFL Wild Card Showdowns and More

A High-Powered Sunday – Let’s Attack the Board:
Today is what sports bettors live for—a high-powered Sunday packed with action and opportunity. From NFL Wild Card Weekend featuring three marquee matchups to NBA, NCAAB, and NHL, the board is stacked, and the possibilities are endless.

Let’s Stay Disciplined, Let’s Execute:
Big slates like today are where the BrownBagBets approach truly shines. It’s not just about the volume—it’s about staying disciplined, making calculated plays, and leveraging our indicators to identify the best opportunities across sports.

Remember: we don’t chase; we execute. Whether it’s football, basketball, or hockey, our system is designed to keep us focused and consistent, building toward long-term gains.

Today’s Slate – What’s Ahead:

• NFL Wild Card Weekend:

  • Three high-stakes playoff matchups that will shape the postseason and offer plenty of betting angles.

• NCAAB Action:

  • Another strong day of college basketball, with conference matchups providing plenty of opportunities to find value.

• NBA and NHL:

  • Full slates in both leagues round out the day, ensuring we’ve got action across the board.

Final Thought – Let’s Make This Day Count:
A Big Sunday like this is the perfect chance to build on our momentum. With NFL playoff action, basketball, hockey, and more, we’re ready to execute the system and keep January moving in the right direction.

Let’s stay sharp, stay disciplined, and make this a Sunday to remember. Let’s go!

NFL Wildcard Round: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Over 47.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Josh Allen over 42.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick: Bo Nix over 22.5 Completions / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The weather forecast for Buffalo (31°, minimal wind, and a low chance of precipitation) sets up favorable conditions for scoring. Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games, with Denver going over the total in five of their last six games and Buffalo boasting an 11-5-1 over record this season. Denver’s offense has shown improvement, even in road losses, and their defense has struggled against elite offenses. Similarly, Buffalo’s offense is consistent at home, averaging 30.5 points per game in Orchard Park.

Josh Allen's rushing ability becomes a critical factor in the postseason, where he averages 56.3 rushing yards per game, well above his regular-season average. Against Denver's pressure-heavy defense, Allen is likely to scramble frequently to extend drives and create scoring opportunities.

Bo Nix will face a Bills defense that excels at limiting deep passes but is vulnerable to short completions. With Buffalo's defense allowing the fourth-most completions per game and Nix thriving in the short-passing game (68.8% completion rate over his last four games), this prop aligns perfectly with the anticipated game script, especially if Denver needs to play catch-up.

Betting Indicators

• Over Trends: Denver is 11-6 to the over this season, including five of their last six games. Buffalo is 11-5-1 to the over and averages 30.5 points per game at home.

• Josh Allen Playoff Rushing Stats: Allen averages 56.3 rushing yards per game in playoff action, surpassing 54 yards in 7 of 10 postseason games.

• Bo Nix Completion Trends: Nix has hit this line in five of his past seven games. Buffalo's defense allows an average of 23.3 completions per game.

Projection

• Score: Buffalo Bills 30, Denver Broncos 24

• Josh Allen Rushing: 52 yards

• Bo Nix Completions: 25 passes

NFL Wildcard Round: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles -4 / Wager: 5%

Analysis

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a prime position to showcase their dominance in this wildcard matchup. As one of the league's most well-rounded teams, they boast a top-tier defense, a dynamic offense, and an MVP-caliber quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Green Bay, while resilient, faces its toughest challenge of the season. Injuries to key players, including cornerback Jaire Alexander and wide receiver Christian Watson, diminish their ability to match up against the Eagles' strengths.

Philadelphia has consistently covered spreads in big games at home, where their defensive front can wreak havoc and their rushing attack thrives. Green Bay's record of close losses this season is notable, but the Eagles’ multifaceted offense should exploit the Packers’ defensive injuries, and their defense can limit Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, forcing the game onto Aaron Rodgers’ shoulders.

This line feels short given the disparity between these teams, especially with Philadelphia healthy and rested. The Eagles' ability to control both sides of the ball makes them a strong play even at a higher number.

Betting Indicators

• Philadelphia's Home Dominance: Eagles are 6-2 ATS at home this season.

• Green Bay's Struggles Against Winning Teams: Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.

• Injury Impact: Key defensive injuries to Green Bay (Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary) and offensive injuries (Christian Watson) significantly lower their ceiling.

• Jalen Hurts in Prime Time: Hurts has thrived in spotlight games, consistently elevating his performance.

Projection

• Score: Philadelphia Eagles 28, Green Bay Packers 20

NFL Wildcard Round: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Over 49.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 50.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This game sets up as a high-scoring affair between two teams with defensive vulnerabilities and playmaking quarterbacks. The Buccaneers have leaned into an up-tempo offensive approach, averaging 32 points per game over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Commanders have consistently gone over the total in road games, averaging 51.4 combined points in such matchups. Both defenses are struggling to generate consistent pressure, which will allow the quarterbacks to exploit opportunities through the air and on the ground.

Jayden Daniels has been dynamic as a dual-threat quarterback, rushing for 50+ yards in eight games this season and showcasing his scrambling ability against a Tampa defense ranked 29th in EPA against quarterback scrambles. He rushed for 90 yards against the Bucs in Week 1 and has consistently been a vital part of Washington’s offensive production. With Tampa's secondary dealing with injuries, Daniels may rely on his legs to escape pressure and create explosive plays.

Both teams have shown a tendency to hit the over against playoff-caliber opponents, and their Week 1 meeting resulted in 57 points. The Bucs' offense, led by Baker Mayfield, has thrived against weaker defenses, and the Commanders' struggles on the offensive line will push Daniels into scramble drills, boosting his rushing output.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • Buccaneers are 12-5 to the over this season and 6-3 at home (averaging 51 PPG).

  • Commanders are 6-3 to the over on the road (51.4 PPG).

• Recent Form:

  • Tampa Bay’s last seven games have averaged 32 PPG.

  • Washington’s last eight games have hit the over in six of them.

• Quarterback Trends:

  • Jayden Daniels has rushed for 50+ yards in eight games this season and 66+ yards in four of his last five full games.

  • Tampa Bay allows the 29th-highest EPA on quarterback scrambles.

Projection

• Score: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 27

• Daniels’ Rushing Yards: 62

NCAAB: St. Francis (PA) at Fairleigh Dickinson (FDU)
Pick: FDU -3.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson (FDU) comes into this matchup as the hottest team in the Northeast Conference, currently riding a nine-game streak of ATS covers. The Knights are battle-tested after a grueling non-conference schedule that featured several games against power-conference teams, preparing them well for league play. Sophomore guard Terrence Brown has been electric, averaging 21.8 points per game and dropping 53 points in his last two outings. His scoring prowess has been a key driver in FDU’s success.

St. Francis (PA) has struggled mightily on the road, losing eight of nine away games this season. The Red Flash defense has been vulnerable, and their lack of success on the road contrasts sharply with FDU’s momentum and offensive efficiency. After a double-overtime victory over Le Moyne on Friday, FDU should carry that energy into this game, with the confidence of knowing they’ve beaten stronger competition throughout the season.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • FDU has covered nine straight games and 11 of its last 12.

  • St. Francis (PA) is 1-8 SU on the road this season.

• Player Impact:

  • FDU’s Terrence Brown is averaging 21.8 PPG and has been especially impactful in recent games, with 53 points across his last two outings.

• Recent Performance:

  • FDU is first in the NEC and continues to capitalize on its pre-conference preparation against tougher opponents.

Projection

• Score: FDU 74, St. Francis (PA) 67

NCAAB: Fairfield at Marist
Pick: Marist -6.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Marist is on a roll, winning seven straight games and covering three consecutive times at home. This team is emerging as a serious contender in the Metro-Atlantic Athletic Conference, with their recent success built on a solid defensive foundation and a significantly improved offense led by sophomore guard Josh Pascarelli, who is averaging 17.8 points per game. Pascarelli's ability to break down defenses and score efficiently has been pivotal, as evidenced by his 20-point performance in their win over Quinnipiac last week.

Fairfield, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, especially on the road, where the Stags have dropped five straight games. Their offense has been a key concern, struggling to generate consistent scoring opportunities, particularly against sound defensive teams like Marist. Furthermore, home teams have had a distinct edge in Metro-Atlantic play this season, winning and covering in all four of Fairfield's conference games thus far.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • Marist has covered three straight games at home.

  • Fairfield has lost five straight road games.

• Player Impact:

  • Josh Pascarelli (Marist) is averaging 17.8 PPG and has been a consistent offensive threat.

• Recent Matchups:

  • Fairfield’s road struggles are well-documented, particularly against teams with strong defenses.

Projection

• Score: Marist 68, Fairfield 59

NCAAB: Washington at Michigan
Pick: Michigan -14 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Washington struggled mightily against Michigan State on Thursday, and the matchup against Michigan appears just as challenging. The Huskies rely heavily on PF Great Osobor, who was neutralized by the Spartans’ size and defensive presence. Facing Michigan’s imposing frontcourt, led by 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, presents a similar, if not tougher, challenge. Washington’s lack of reliable perimeter shooting (3-for-16 from beyond the arc against Michigan State) further compounds their issues, leaving them without the offensive versatility needed to exploit Michigan’s defense.

Under head coach Dusty May, Michigan has quickly emerged as a potential national contender. Their balanced roster features dominant inside play complemented by a dynamic backcourt. Guards Tre Donaldson and Roddy Gayle Jr. have provided consistent scoring and playmaking, giving Michigan multiple ways to attack. The Wolverines’ ability to control the boards and dictate the pace should make it difficult for Washington to keep this game competitive.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • Michigan is 5-1 ATS at home this season.

  • Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.

• Player Matchups:

  • Michigan’s 7-footers (Wolf and Goldin) have a clear size and skill advantage over Washington’s frontcourt.

• Recent Performance:

  • Michigan has won three straight games by 15+ points.

  • Washington’s offensive struggles (under 60 points in two of their last three games) have been evident.

Projection

• Score: Michigan 79, Washington 62

NCAAB: Oregon at Penn State
Pick: Penn State +3 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This is a classic case of home-court advantage heavily influencing the outcome. Penn State has been dominant at home, boasting a perfect 9-0 record while averaging an impressive 93.6 points per game at the Bryce Jordan Center. Alumni Day will further amplify the energy, giving the Nittany Lions an additional boost in what should be a tightly contested game.

Oregon may have the edge in terms of overall roster talent and athleticism, but they face a challenging cross-country trip that could hinder their performance. The Ducks typically excel at home or in neutral-site environments but may struggle to match Penn State's pace and energy on their own turf.

Penn State thrives in transition and has multiple scoring threats, which could exploit an Oregon defense that has been inconsistent away from Eugene. Given the context and venue, Penn State has the tools to win outright, but the points provide a valuable cushion in what should be a close game.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • Penn State is 9-0 SU at home this season.

  • Oregon is 1-3 ATS on the road.

• Scoring Advantage:

  • Penn State averages 93.6 points per game at home.

  • Oregon averages just 67 points per game in road contests.

• Situational Factors:

  • Alumni Day festivities provide a motivational edge for Penn State.

  • Oregon faces significant travel fatigue from a cross-country trip.

Projection

• Score: Penn State 77, Oregon 73

NHL: Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings
Pick: Red Wings -1.5 @ +170 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Kraken may have snapped their four-game losing streak with a win in Buffalo, but now face a difficult back-to-back situation traveling to Detroit. Seattle’s goaltending has been a major liability, and Philipp Grubauer’s recent performances don’t inspire confidence—he has a 3.91 GAA and .861 save percentage in January, with losses in his last four starts. This defensive vulnerability is particularly concerning against a Detroit team firing on all cylinders.

The Red Wings have been red hot, winning six straight games under Todd McLellan. They’ve been fueled by a balanced attack, bolstered by Patrick Kane’s resurgence, who has tallied 8 points (2 goals, 6 assists) in his last four games. Detroit’s defense has also tightened up, allowing just 2.5 goals per game during this win streak. With rest and momentum on their side, the Red Wings are well-positioned to capitalize on the Kraken’s travel fatigue and struggling netminding.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • Detroit is 6-0 in their last six games, with five wins by multiple goals.

  • Seattle is 1-4 in their last five road games.

• Goaltending Edge:

  • Grubauer: 3.91 GAA & .861 save percentage in January.

  • Detroit’s Ville Husso: 2.59 GAA & .910 save percentage over the last month.

• Situational Factors:

  • Seattle is on the second night of a back-to-back.

  • Detroit is rested and playing at home, where they’ve won five of their last six games.

Projection

• Score: Red Wings 5, Kraken 2

NBA: Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic
Pick: Magic -1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Magic are rejuvenated with the return of Paolo Banchero, who announced his comeback in spectacular fashion by scoring 34 points in Friday's narrow loss to the Bucks. With Banchero back in the lineup, Orlando has a more dynamic offensive edge and the ability to control the game inside. Despite the loss, the Magic showcased resilience, nearly toppling Milwaukee even with a dominant performance from Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Philadelphia is navigating a rocky stretch and could be without Joel Embiid again. His absence significantly hampers the Sixers' ability to defend the paint and control the boards. The Sixers are coming off a discouraging loss to a shorthanded Pelicans squad and have struggled in recent matchups, including a tight game against the lowly Wizards. Without Embiid, Philly lacks the interior presence to contend with Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr., making Orlando’s slight edge at home even more pronounced.

Orlando also has a favorable track record against Philly this season, with a win in November despite missing Banchero. This, combined with the Sixers' road inconsistencies, tilts the matchup in the Magic's favor.

Betting Indicators

• Team Trends:

  • The Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

  • Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.

• Injuries:

  • Joel Embiid is questionable and has missed the past week.

  • Paolo Banchero returned Friday with no lingering effects.

• Head-to-Head:

  • The Magic won the first meeting in November, 112-98, despite Banchero’s absence.

Projection

• Score: Magic 112, 76ers 106