Finishing May Strong: BrownBagBets’ Strategic Wins and Final Push

Last night was a spitting image of the night before, where we managed to grow our bankroll despite a roughly 50% win-loss ratio. The key to our ROI and increased total bankroll was our strategic 5% play on the Yankees, who delivered a crucial 5-run 7th inning to open up the game in LA.

While our NBA and NHL finals plays didn’t yield the desired results and dragged us down slightly, we still ended the evening on a positive note. With the NBA Finals now set between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics, we’ll have to wait almost a week for Game 1.

Looking ahead to tonight, our focus shifts to Game 5 of the Western Conference NHL Finals in Dallas, along with a selection of strong MLB plays. Today marks the final betting day of May, and we are determined to finish the month on a high note.

At BrownBagBets, we believe in the power of strategic betting and disciplined bankroll management. Let’s capitalize on today’s opportunities and close out May with a strong performance!

NHL Western Conference Finals Game 5: Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

Pick: Over 5.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Stars ML / Wager: 3%

Anticipating a High-Scoring Game with Stars Victorious

As the series shifts back to Dallas for Game 5, the combination of key player absences, recent performance trends, and the home-ice advantage sets the stage for both a high-scoring game and a potential Stars victory. Betting on the over 5.5 goals and the Stars on the money line offers strategic value based on these dynamics.

Potential Absence of Chris Tanev

The potential absence of Chris Tanev, one of the Stars’ top defensemen and a leader in blocked shots, could lead to more scoring opportunities for the Oilers. Tanev’s absence would reduce Dallas’s defensive capabilities, increasing the likelihood of additional shots reaching Jake Oettinger, who has been less effective at home in the postseason. This scenario sets up the possibility of a high-scoring game, making the over 5.5 goals a strong bet.

Jake Oettinger’s Home Struggles

Jake Oettinger’s postseason performance at home has been less impressive compared to his road games. This, combined with the potential increase in shots due to Tanev’s absence, points to a greater likelihood of goals from both teams. An empty-netter in a late-game 3-2 scenario could seal the over, but the overall setup suggests multiple goals throughout the game.

Stars’ Resilience Following Losses

The Dallas Stars have demonstrated strong resilience following losses this postseason, going 5-0 after their last five defeats and out-shooting their opponents in all but one of those games. This trend indicates that the Stars are likely to come out aggressive and take control of Game 5. Playing at home, where they have the support of their fans and the advantage of familiar surroundings, boosts their chances of securing a victory.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Cubs ML / Wager: 3%

Cubs Positioned for Bounce-Back Win in Friday Matinee

The Chicago Cubs are well-positioned to secure a victory against the Cincinnati Reds, particularly given their history of performing well in Friday matinees at Wrigley Field. Betting on the Cubs to win on the money line at 3% provides solid value based on recent performance trends and the pitching matchup.

Cubs’ Strong Performance in Friday Matinees

The Cubs have a history of performing well in Friday afternoon games, which provides them with a slight edge going into this matchup. These games often see a lively home crowd at Wrigley Field, adding to the home-field advantage for the Cubs.

Cubs’ Need for a Win

After a rough road trip, the Cubs are in need of a win to get back on track. Playing at home provides them with an opportunity to reset and perform better in familiar surroundings. The urgency to bounce back from recent struggles should motivate the Cubs to play at their best.

Pitching Matchup: Graham Ashcraft’s Struggles Against Cubs

While I’m generally cautious about placing too much emphasis on a pitcher’s career splits against a specific team, Graham Ashcraft’s numbers against the Cubs are hard to ignore. In his brief career, Ashcraft has struggled significantly against Chicago, which could continue in this game. The Cubs’ lineup has had success against him, which bodes well for their chances of generating runs.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 K’s / Wager: 3%

Phillies Positioned for Convincing Home Victory

The Philadelphia Phillies are well-positioned to secure a decisive victory against the St. Louis Cardinals, particularly given their strong performance at home and the pitching matchup. Betting on the Phillies to cover the -1.5 run line and Miles Mikolas to fall short of 4.5 strikeouts provides significant value based on recent trends and statistical insights.

Phillies’ Home Advantage

The Phillies have been exceptional at home, winning 13 of their 19 home games by 2 runs or more. Returning home after a road trip and a day off provides them with a freshness and confidence boost. Philadelphia’s ability to mash at home makes them a strong candidate to cover the -1.5 run line, especially with their potent lineup.

Aaron Nola on the Mound

Aaron Nola, the Phillies’ ace, will take the mound. Nola has already shined in a win against the Cardinals this season and is well-equipped to lead the Phillies to another victory. His reliability and ability to control games are critical factors in Philadelphia’s favor.

Miles Mikolas’ Struggles

Miles Mikolas is not the pitcher he once was, and he has struggled to rack up strikeouts this season. His season high is 6 strikeouts, and he has been held under 4.5 strikeouts in 7 of his 11 starts. The Phillies’ lineup, which combines the 7th lowest strikeout rate with the 5th highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, is familiar with Mikolas, having accrued 140 at-bats against him with just an 18% strikeout rate. Given these factors, it is unlikely Mikolas will reach 5 strikeouts, and he may not even last 5 innings.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles -1.5 @ +145 / Wager: 3%

Orioles Poised for Convincing Win Against Rays

The Baltimore Orioles are well-positioned to secure a decisive victory against the Tampa Bay Rays, particularly given the current state of the Rays’ bullpen and the pitching matchup. Betting on the Orioles to cover the -1.5 run line at +145 provides significant value based on recent trends and team dynamics.

Tampa Bay’s Bullpen Fatigue

The Rays’ bullpen is completely spent following a 12-inning victory over the Athletics, which came on the heels of a one-run game the night before. This level of usage and fatigue significantly weakens Tampa Bay’s ability to manage the game effectively, especially if their starter, Aaron Civale, struggles early.

Aaron Civale’s Road Struggles

Aaron Civale has struggled on the road, sporting a 7.40 ERA away from home. His inability to perform consistently in away games puts the Rays at a disadvantage, particularly against a strong Orioles lineup. Civale’s road woes are a critical factor that the Orioles can exploit to build an early lead and maintain control throughout the game.

Baltimore’s Offensive and Home Field Advantages

The Orioles have several advantages in this matchup, including their offensive prowess and home field advantage. Albert Suarez, while not spectacular, has been serviceable and is supported by a well-rested bullpen and a potent lineup capable of taking advantage of a depleted Rays pitching staff. Baltimore’s offense can generate runs effectively, increasing the likelihood of covering the -1.5 run line.

MLB: Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Guardians -1.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Jose Ramirez over 1.5 total bases / Wager: 3%

Guardians Positioned for a Dominant Home Victory

The Cleveland Guardians are well-positioned to secure a convincing victory against the Washington Nationals, particularly given the pitching matchup and recent performance trends. Betting on the Guardians to cover the -1.5 run line and Jose Ramirez to exceed 1.5 total bases offers significant value.

Guardians’ Home Field and Offensive Advantage

The Guardians have been strong at home, winning 10 of their last 11 games and covering the run line in six of those victories. They rank 4th in OPS against left-handed pitchers and 5th in home runs. With their potent offense and home-field advantage, the Guardians are well-equipped to handle the Nationals.

Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs. Patrick Corbin

Tanner Bibee provides the Guardians with a solid chance to win, as the Nationals’ lineup lacks depth after the first few spots. Patrick Corbin, on the other hand, has struggled significantly, with a 6.12 ERA and allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, totaling 17 2/3 innings. The Nationals have been outscored 21-5 in those starts, indicating a clear vulnerability.

Jose Ramirez’s Form and Matchup

Jose Ramirez is one of the best hitters in the league, particularly against left-handed pitchers. He boasts a 1.014 OPS against lefties and has been on fire over the last 28 days with a 1.123 OPS. Ramirez has topped 1.5 total bases in seven of his last eight games, thanks to six home runs and five doubles. Given Corbin’s struggles and Ramirez’s recent form, betting on Ramirez to exceed 1.5 total bases is a strong play.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins

Pick: Rangers ML / Wager: 4%

Rangers Positioned for Victory Against Struggling Marlins

The Texas Rangers are well-positioned to secure a victory against the Miami Marlins, particularly given the Marlins’ struggles when Sixto Sanchez is on the mound. Betting on the Rangers to win on the money line at 4% provides substantial value based on recent performance trends and team dynamics.

Fading Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have struggled significantly when Sixto Sanchez starts, holding a dismal 2-11 record in such games. Sanchez has been unable to provide consistent quality starts, which puts Miami at a disadvantage, especially against a Rangers team that is starting to find its form.

Rangers’ Improved Performance

The Rangers are finally starting to play better baseball, entering this series on a three-game win streak. Their improved performance and ability to string together wins provide a solid foundation for backing them in this matchup. With key players like Corey Seager beginning to turn things around, Texas is well-equipped to capitalize on Sanchez’s struggles.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves

Pick: Reynaldo Lopez over 15.5 Outs / Wager: 3%

Pick: JP Sears over 15.5 Outs @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Lopez and Sears Well-Positioned to Go Deep Against Struggling Offenses

The matchups between Reynaldo Lopez of the Atlanta Braves and JP Sears of the Oakland Athletics offer significant value for betting on both pitchers to exceed 15.5 outs. Given the current dynamics of both teams and the specific pitching matchups, these bets are strategically sound.

Reynaldo Lopez Over 15.5 Outs

Reynaldo Lopez has been effective in six of his nine starts, consistently pitching deep into games. With an extra day of rest, Lopez is well-positioned to handle the Athletics’ struggling offense, which ranks fourth worst in runs scored and has an 82 OPS+ on the road. The Athletics have allowed nine of the last ten right-handed starters to go beyond 15.5 outs, excluding matchups involving openers. Given this trend and Lopez’s track record, he is likely to pitch into the sixth inning or beyond, especially if he maintains a pitch count in the 85-90 range.

JP Sears Over 15.5 Outs @ +100

JP Sears has been a reliable and underrated pitcher for the Athletics. Despite facing an overrated Braves lineup that has been struggling offensively, especially after losing Ronald Acuña Jr., Sears is well-positioned to pitch deep into the game. The Braves rank 21st in OPS for the month of May, highlighting their recent offensive struggles. Sears has gone at least 5.1 innings in seven of his last ten appearances, demonstrating his ability to consistently provide length. Given the Braves’ current form and Sears’ effectiveness, he is likely to exceed 15.5 outs.

MLB: Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros ML @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Astros Positioned for Home Victory Against Twins

The Houston Astros are well-positioned to secure a victory against the Minnesota Twins, particularly given their strong home performance and the current pitching matchup. Betting on the Astros to win on the money line at +100 provides significant value based on recent trends and statistical insights.

Astros’ Home Performance and Offensive Strength

The Astros have been the best team in MLB at home this season in terms of weighted on-base average (wOBA). Their ability to generate offense consistently at home gives them a significant edge. Additionally, Houston boasts the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, highlighting their disciplined approach at the plate.

Pablo Lopez’s Struggles

Pablo Lopez enters this game with the highest hard hit and barrel rates of his career, indicating that opposing hitters are making solid contact against him. His road performance has been particularly concerning, with a 6.00 ERA away from home. Given these factors, the Astros’ potent offense is well-positioned to exploit Lopez’s vulnerabilities.

Astros’ Pitching Advantage

Ronel Blanco has been effective for the Astros, posting a 5-0 record with a 1.99 ERA. Despite concerns about his performance post-suspension, Blanco delivered in his last start, maintaining his strong form. The Twins’ bullpen may also be taxed after using several high-leverage relievers on Thursday to secure a win against the Royals, which could further advantage the Astros.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Royals ML @ +120 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Dylan Cease under 17.5 outs @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Royals Positioned for Victory Against Road-Weary Padres

The Kansas City Royals are well-positioned to secure a victory against the San Diego Padres, particularly given the pitching matchup and recent trends. Betting on the Royals to win on the money line at +120 and Dylan Cease to fall short of 17.5 outs offers significant value.

Padres’ Road Struggles

San Diego is hitting the road for the first time in over a week, which can often disrupt a team’s rhythm and performance. Adjusting to travel and a new environment may impact the Padres’ effectiveness, giving the Royals an edge.

Royals’ Success Against Dylan Cease

The Royals have faced Dylan Cease frequently during his time with the White Sox, and they have impressive statistics against him. Kansas City pairs the second-highest OPS and fourth-lowest strikeout rate in May, indicating a strong and disciplined lineup. These factors make the Royals well-equipped to handle Cease, despite his strong season.

Michael Wacha’s Solid Performance

Michael Wacha provides the Royals with a reliable option on the mound. His xERA of 3.38 and excellent hard-hit rate of 32.1% highlight his ability to limit damage. Wacha’s change-up is one of the best in baseball, adding to his effectiveness against the Padres lineup. His strong metrics make him a solid choice to lead the Royals to victory.

Fading Dylan Cease

Despite Dylan Cease having a strong season, this matchup against a surging Royals lineup is challenging. Kansas City has strong career numbers against Cease and pairs a high OPS with a low strikeout rate in May. Given these factors and the price point, betting on Cease to fall short of 17.5 outs is a strategic choice. The Royals’ lineup should be able to work counts and get Cease out of the game early, especially considering their familiarity with him.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Brewers -1.5 @ +125 / Wager: 3%

Brewers Positioned for Dominant Win Against Struggling White Sox

The Milwaukee Brewers are well-positioned to secure a decisive victory against the Chicago White Sox, particularly given the current form of both teams and the pitching matchup. Betting on the Brewers to cover the -1.5 run line at +125 provides significant value based on recent trends and team dynamics.

White Sox’s Struggles on the Road

The White Sox have been free-falling recently, and their struggles are particularly pronounced on the road. Erick Fedde has had three scoreless starts in his past four outings, but all of those strong performances came at home. On the road, Fedde has a 5.47 ERA, highlighting his vulnerability away from his home park. This discrepancy makes the White Sox a prime candidate to struggle in this matchup.

Brewers’ Home Field Advantage

Milwaukee has a strong home-field advantage and has been playing well recently. The Brewers’ lineup is capable of capitalizing on Fedde’s struggles on the road, making them a solid bet to win by multiple runs. At this price, the value is too good to pass up, especially considering the current form of both teams.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Jose Soriano over 6.5 total K’s @ +120 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Jose Soriano over 15.5 outs / Wager: 3%

Backing Soriano Against Struggling Mariners Offense

The Mariners’ offensive struggles, particularly their high strikeout rate, make Jose Soriano a prime candidate to exceed both 6.5 strikeouts and 15.5 outs in this matchup. Betting on Soriano to achieve these totals offers significant value given recent trends and performance metrics.

Mariners’ High Strikeout Rate

Seattle’s offense has been striking out at a league-worst rate, averaging 10.24 strikeouts per game. This alarming frequency has been even worse recently, with five straight right-handed starters recording at least eight strikeouts against them. Additionally, nine of the last eleven righty starters have reached at least seven strikeouts against the Mariners, highlighting a clear trend.

Soriano’s Strikeout Ability

Jose Soriano is coming off an eight-strikeout performance and has recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his nine starts this season. Given the Mariners’ propensity to strike out, Soriano is well-positioned to exceed the 6.5 strikeout total. The +120 odds provide excellent value for this bet.

Soriano’s Innings Potential

Soriano has transitioned effectively from the bullpen to the rotation, consistently pitching deep into games. He has exceeded 15.5 outs in four of his five starts in May. The Mariners’ recent inability to score more than two earned runs against right-handed starters, including against struggling pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti and Hunter Brown, bodes well for Soriano. With Soriano throwing 90-plus pitches in his last two starts, his workload should be sufficient to get him over the 15.5 outs total.

MLB: New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Under 7.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Expect a Low-Scoring Affair in San Francisco

The matchup between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants is poised to be a low-scoring affair, making the under 7.5 runs at +100 an attractive bet. Recent trends and the pitching matchups support this prediction, providing a strong foundation for a confident wager.

Yankees’ Offensive Inconsistencies

Despite scoring eight runs on just five hits in their previous game, the Yankees’ offensive performance remains inconsistent. Much of their scoring came from walks and errors, indicating that their recent struggles at the plate may not have been fully resolved. This inconsistency, combined with the Giants’ pitching strength, points to a potential under in this game.

Jordan Hicks’ Solid Performance

Jordan Hicks has been effective for the Giants, posting a 2.33 ERA and typically keeping the opposition in check through his customary five innings. If he maintains his recent form, the Yankees may struggle to generate runs early in the game, setting the stage for a low-scoring contest.

Marcus Stroman’s Dominance

Marcus Stroman has been exceptional for the Yankees, allowing just one run in 19 1/3 innings across his last three starts. His ability to pitch deep into games, often reaching the 7th and 8th innings, further reduces the likelihood of high-scoring outcomes. Stroman’s recent dominance provides a strong anchor for the under bet.