Weekend Warriors: Tackling College Basketball and EPL’s Best

Checking in BrownBagBets family after a strong Friday night performance at 106% of our total December bankroll! Saturday brings us a sports extravaganza like no other. The heart of college basketball’s conference play is upon us, with games that could define the season. In the world of soccer, we turn our eyes to the EPL, particularly the top-of-the-table clash between Arsenal and Aston Villa. It’s a day where strategy, skill, and a bit of luck will come into play, and we’re here to guide you through it all. Get ready for a day packed with action, insights, and expert picks.

EPL Play

The Premier League is approaching a particularly bustling period with its festive fixtures imminent. This weekend features several significant matches, including Arsenal’s visit to Villa Park for a clash with Aston Villa, and Tottenham welcoming Newcastle at their home ground. Our EPL expert has been deep in the lab, preparing for this stretch in hopes of enhancing our bankroll growth. He’s crunching numbers and using all the machines he can to provide our followers with the high probability outcomes and value plays as we do in other sports!

Liverpool @ Crystal Palace

Pick: Crystal Palace +1.5 / Wager: 2%

Liverpool, with a significant home and away xG difference, excels at home but performs averagely away. They’ve secured mixed results on the road, partly thanks to Alisson’s goalkeeping. His injury makes Liverpool more susceptible, especially against fast-paced attacks. Their defense, while improved in set pieces, remains subpar. Crystal Palace, missing Eberechi Eze but strong in transition and set pieces, pose a challenge. Despite the market favoring Liverpool following their recent win, Palace’s solid home defense could hinder Liverpool’s chances of a clear win.

Aston Villa @ Arsenal

Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 2%

Arsenal has the defensive advantage in preventing shots, big scoring chances, and final third entries, indicating a stronger defense overall. However, Aston Villa shows strength in offensive stats such as ball recoveries in the offensive half and xG per set piece, suggesting they are capable of creating scoring opportunities, especially from set pieces.

On the other hand, Arsenal exhibits clear offensive advantages, including higher numbers in shots per 90 minutes, box entries, and big scoring chances, indicating they are likely to score. Aston Villa’s defense seems to allow a significant number of ball recoveries and xThreat, which further implies Arsenal’s ability to penetrate their defense. Given these statistics, both teams show potential to score, making “Both Teams to Score” a likely outcome for this match.

NBA In-Season Tournament Championship

Pacers vs Lakers

Pick: Pacers to win then Championship / Wager: 1.85% / Winnings: 23%

Pick: Lebron over 7.5 Assists / Wager 3%

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton over 46.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds / Wager 3%

We had an early futures play on the Pacers that is sitting out there right now. We loved them out of the gate and we continue to be confident in their ability. We’ve heard over and over from Lebron about how much winning would mean to him. 7.5 assists from one of the best facilitators in the league in a big spot? We will take it! Tyrese has been the man as well. We think he just continues to fill up the stat book tonight too. Believe it or not, as good as BrownBagBets has been recently with NBA picks and props, we don’t consider ourselves lovers of the NBA relative to other sports! With that being said, we will be huge Pacers fans tonight’s, watching closely.

NCAAM Plays

Syracuse @ Georgetown

Pick: under 153 / Wager: 3%

We’ve got average projection here not making it over 140.

Illinois @ Tennessee

Pick: Under 146 / Wager: 3%

We’ve got this game coming in at 140. Tennessee being the key here, playing a strong defensive game at home. Given the strong defensive statistics of both teams and their ability to limit opponent scoring, the under seems more likely. The game is expected to feature solid defense and limited second-chance opportunities due to strong rebounding

N. Iowa @ Toledo

Pick: over 153 / Wager: 3%

Both these teams are super efficient on offense and have higher end statistics in most of the important categories. The pace of play isn’t as high as we like to see, but the efficiency here gives us a strong over play.

Colgate @ Vermont

Pick: over 133.5 / Wager: 3%

We’ve got this game over 140 in a matchup that should be close start to finish.

Louisiana @ La Tech

Pick: La Tech -8 / Wager: 3%

The spread is consistently cited as Louisiana Tech being favored by around 8.5 to 9.5 points, which makes the line at 8 great value for us. Louisiana Tech’s has a solid home record with five consecutive home wins . Their overall record is 7-2, indicating a strong performance this season. Defensively, they are impressive, ranking 13th in the nation in points allowed per game and 6th in opponents’ field goal percentage .Louisiana on the other side has been challenged this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 5-3, with recent struggles in road games, including three consecutive road losses . They are giving up an average of 72.5 points per game, which is 216th in the country, and have a field goal percentage defense of 47.3% .

Based on these factors, the confidence in Louisiana Tech covering the spread is fairly high. Predictive models like give Louisiana Tech a 57% chance of covering the spread , and expert picks from our sources also favor Louisiana Tech.

Wisconsin @ Arizona

Pick: Arizona -8.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

This is the eye test betting approach for us on this one. The Wildcats are so good, they are at home and we just see them rolling behind a pumped stadium. 7-0 ATS helps too.

Kentucky @ UPenn

Pick: Over 154.5 / Wager: 3%

Kentucky and Penn combine for an average of 18.4 more points than the over/under of 156.5 for this matchup. Kentucky is an offensively strong team, scoring heavily in their games. Penn has also been effective in scoring, especially from three-point range, with a 41.5% success rate. Predictions lean towards the over, considering Kentucky’s high scoring average and Penn’s ability to contribute offensively. Kentucky’s pace of play and Penn’s three-point shooting ability are also factors that might lead to a high-scoring game.

Purdue @ Alabama

Pick: Under 161 / Wager: 3%

Projections have this game down at 153. Combined, these teams average 179 points per game, significantly more than the over/under. However, the opponents of these teams have averaged considerably fewer points. The high offensive output of both teams is tempered by their defensive efforts, making the under a plausible outcome.

Sam Houston St. @ S. Missouri

Pick: Under 145.5 / Wager: 3%

South Dakota St. @ Wichita State

Pick: Under 148.5 / Wager: 3%

We’ve got 140 points here.

UCLA @ Villanova

Pick: Over 127.5/ Wager: 3%

We’ve got this game at 134 easy.

NHL Plays

Senators @ Red Wings

Pick: Red Wings ML / Wager: 2%

Predators @ Leafs

Pick: Over 6.5 / Wager: 2%