Crushing January Goals: Navigating to a 125% Bankroll with NFL and More on Tap for Today.

Yesterday marked another monumental day at BrownBagBets as we soared to a staggering 125% of our total January bankroll. That’s right, if you started with $2000 this month, you’ve already pocketed an extra $500 – and that’s just the beginning. Our strategic bankroll management isn’t just about smart betting; it’s about making your money work for you. By leveraging a calculated approach, we ensure that every play contributes to a larger goal, building your wealth steadily and surely. The beauty? Not only are you maximizing your earnings, but you’re also racking up those loyalty points with every volume play.

Our NCAA Basketball predictions were nothing short of spectacular yesterday, boasting an impressive 11-3-1 record. We didn’t just predict wins; we called the upsets for UNC and Kentucky, doubling down on the value with both moneyline and spread bets. Today, we pivot to the thrilling culmination of the NFL regular season. Week 18 is here, and it’s laden with opportunities. Our team has diligently analyzed spreads, totals, and every angle to bring you the best bets for today’s games, crucial for those playoff races.

But that’s not all – stay tuned for our insights on NCAA basketball, NBA, and NHL to keep the wins rolling. Remember, knowledge is power, but the right strategy is how you win the game. Follow us for expert analysis and picks, and let’s close January with a resounding victory. Are you ready to take your betting to the next level? Join us now, and let’s make every play count!

Let’s talk about todays top plays now!

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 / Wager: 3%

As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prepare to face the Carolina Panthers, they’re looking to bounce back from a recent setback and clinch the NFC South title. The Buccaneers have demonstrated a capacity to cover spreads and secure outright victories, and against the Panthers’ defense, they have a favorable matchup. Despite Carolina’s seemingly solid defense based on yards per play allowed, a deeper dive reveals vulnerabilities, particularly against the run. The Panthers have faced a high volume of rush attempts due to early leads by opponents and have struggled with tackling and allowing rushing touchdowns.

Offensively, the Buccaneers should exploit the Panthers’ 26th-ranked overall defensive DVOA, with an efficient ground game and an opportunity for Baker Mayfield to improve on his past performance against them. The Buccaneers’ man/gap running game concepts align well against Carolina’s defensive weaknesses, suggesting an effective offensive strategy.

NFL: Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Picks: Under 38.5 / Wager: 2%, Bengals over 22.5 points / Wager: 2%

As the Cleveland Browns prepare to face the Cincinnati Bengals, the dynamics of this matchup present an interesting betting scenario. With the Browns already locked into the No. 5 seed and potentially resting key players, their offensive performance may be limited. On the other hand, the Bengals, despite missing out on the playoffs, will be motivated to close out their season with a strong showing against a divisional rival, especially in front of their home crowd.

We anticipate the Browns to adopt a conservative game plan, focusing on running the ball and managing the clock to maintain player health for the postseason. This approach, combined with a cold-weather setting, sets the stage for a lower-scoring game, leading us to place a 2% wager on the under 38.5 total points.

Conversely, the Bengals have demonstrated the ability to score quickly and efficiently, even with their backup quarterback. They’re expected to exploit the Browns’ weakened defense, which allows more points on the road and will likely be resting starters. This offensive potential, especially in a game where pride is on the line, leads us to also place a 2% wager on the Bengals scoring over 22.5 points.

NFL: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Pick: Patriots -2 / Wager: 2%

As the New England Patriots host the New York Jets in a pivotal AFC East showdown, we’re focusing on the potential end of an era for Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ dominance over the Jets. With a staggering 15 consecutive wins against New York, the Patriots have shown an uncanny ability to come out on top in this rivalry. The prospect of this being Belichick’s final game only adds a layer of motivation for New England.

Quarterback play will be critical in this matchup, with Bailey Zappe demonstrating better leadership and performance for the Patriots compared to his counterpart, Trevor Siemian of the Jets. While Siemian has shown some competence, his tendency to turn the ball over could be a significant factor. The Patriots’ defense, allowing fewer yards per play than the Jets over the past three games, is primed to capitalize on any mistakes.

Despite the Jets’ sturdy defense for most of the season, they faltered in their recent loss to Cleveland, indicating a potential vulnerability the Patriots can exploit. With Zappe at the helm, New England has managed to cover the spread in their recent matchups, showing resilience and capability even against tough opponents.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

Pick: Over 46 / Wager: 2%

As the Minnesota Vikings clash with the Detroit Lions in a high-stakes NFC North matchup, we’re eyeing the potential for a high-scoring affair. With playoff implications on the line for both teams, expect the offenses to come out swinging, aiming to seize every opportunity to secure a postseason spot.

The return of Nick Mullens for Minnesota is a game-changer, especially against a Detroit defense that has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in divisional games. The Lions’ tendency to engage in high-scoring contests within the NFC North, with four out of five divisional games going over, sets the stage for an offensive showdown.

Minnesota’s defense has been struggling, with three consecutive games going over the total. This trend, combined with Detroit’s robust home scoring average of nearly 31 points at Ford Field, hints at the likelihood of a shootout between these division rivals.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Pick: Jaguars -1.5 / Wager: 1%

As the Jacksonville Jaguars square off against the Tennessee Titans, we’re taking a cautious yet strategic approach with a 1% wager on the Jaguars at -1.5. This game isn’t just about the play on the field; it’s part of our comprehensive ‘bet the board’ promo strategy on Caesar’s, allowing us to maintain a stake in every game.

The Jaguars are in a must-win situation to secure their division, holding a crucial tiebreaker over the Colts and Texans. With the potential return of Trevor Lawrence and the Titans likely starting Ryan Tannehill, who hasn’t instilled much confidence in Titans fans, the Jaguars have an edge.

Tennessee’s struggling secondary, ranking 25th against the pass, is another factor tilting the scales in Jacksonville’s favor. Even if C.J. Beathard has to step in for Lawrence, the Jaguars’ offensive capabilities and Tennessee’s defensive woes make Jacksonville a viable bet to cover the spread.

Remember, this is a calculated play as part of a broader betting strategy, emphasizing the importance of managing your bankroll and understanding the dynamics of each game. As the Jaguars aim for a crucial win, we place our trust in their ability to overcome the Titans and cover the -1.5 spread.

NFL: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Saints ML / Wager: 2%

In the high-stakes encounter between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, we’re taking a calculated risk with a 1% wager on the Saints’ moneyline. This game has significant playoff implications, potentially becoming a de facto playoff match if the Jaguars falter, ensuring both teams come in with high motivation.

Our analysis leans towards the Saints, even considering their potential to cover the spread. Despite the Falcons’ impressive 228 rush yards in the previous meeting, we believe the Saints’ defense, which allowed 7 yards per play in their last outing, will come in with a laser focus on stifling Atlanta’s ground game. If New Orleans can successfully slow down the Falcons’ rush, it puts pressure on Atlanta’s passing game, which struggled to net 100 yards recently.

On the offensive side, Derek Carr has been performing admirably, capable of leading the charge even without Alvin Kamara. His ability to drive the offense should play a pivotal role in securing a win for the Saints.

This play is part of our broader ‘bet the board’ strategy, reflecting a thoughtful approach to leveraging every game’s potential. As the Saints and Falcons gear up for what could be a pivotal showdown, our confidence lies with New Orleans to emerge victorious, making them a compelling pick on the moneyline.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Pick: Cowboys over 30.5 points / Wager: 2%

As the Dallas Cowboys vie for the NFC East title, they face an opportune matchup against the Washington Commanders’ struggling defense. Our analysis leads us to a 2% wager on the Cowboys scoring over 30.5 points, a feat well within reach for one of the NFL’s most potent offenses.

The Commanders have been on a defensive downturn, allowing at least 27 points in their last seven outings, with their Thanksgiving encounter against Dallas ending in a 45-10 rout. This consistent breach in their defense, often conceding 400 yards of offense, sets the stage for the Cowboys to exploit their vulnerabilities.

With a track record of giving up 30 points regularly throughout the season, the Commanders’ defense is up against a formidable Dallas offense led by an elite quarterback. Given the Commanders’ particularly weak pass defense, it’s reasonable to anticipate the Cowboys capitalizing on this matchup to secure a high-scoring win.

NFL: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Over 42 / Wager: 2%

In an exciting NFC East showdown, we’re setting our sights on a high-scoring affair between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. Historical patterns and recent performances lead us to a 2% wager on the game total going over 42 points.

The Giants and Eagles previously combined for a substantial 58 points, and recent trends suggest this offensive momentum will continue. Under Tyrod Taylor’s leadership, the Giants have consistently scored 25 points in their last two games. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has shown vulnerability, particularly under Matt Patricia, conceding 25+ points in five of the last six games.

Analyzing divisional matchups further underscores our prediction. The average total in Giants division games has been 47 points, while Eagles division games have soared to an average of 58 points. This suggests an inherent tendency for high-scoring games within the division, with the Eagles contributing significantly to the tally.

With both teams capable of reaching 24+ points, especially considering the Eagles’ robust 470-yard performance in their first meeting with the Giants, we’re confident in predicting a total surpassing 42 points. The Eagles’ motivation to secure a division title only adds to the likelihood of an offensive showcase.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Seahawks -3 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

In a clash with significant playoff implications, we’re backing the Seattle Seahawks to cover the spread against the Arizona Cardinals with a 3% wager. The Seahawks are fighting for their postseason spot, and their high motivation factor is too compelling to overlook.

The Cardinals, fresh off an impressive upset over the Eagles, might face a letdown this week. Their victory was a season highlight, and it’s often challenging to maintain that level of performance, especially against a Seattle team with everything to play for.

Seattle’s offensive prowess, coupled with the Cardinals’ potential post-victory lull, sets the stage for the Seahawks to maintain pressure both offensively and defensively. Even as they potentially keep an eye on other crucial games, coach Pete Carroll’s competitive ethos ensures his team won’t ease up.

Despite a defensive struggle against the Steelers, Seattle’s offense demonstrated its capability, winning the yards per play battle. This offensive threat is a critical factor in our prediction, as we anticipate the Seahawks capitalizing on any letdown by the Cardinals.

This game isn’t just another fixture for Seattle; it’s a must-win scenario that will likely bring out their best. With the odds at +100, betting on the Seahawks to cover the -3 spread offers valuable potential in a game where their playoff hopes hang in the balance.

NFL: Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Bears +2.5 @ +100 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Bears over 21.5 points / Wager: 2%

In this crucial NFC North showdown, we’re placing a 2% wager on the Chicago Bears to cover the spread and another 2% on them to score over 21.5 points against the Green Bay Packers. The Bears have been performing admirably against the spread, going 6-1-1 ATS in their recent games. Their defense has emerged as a formidable force, allowing just 15.2 points on average over their last five matches.

While the Packers are the ones with playoff aspirations and the home-field advantage, they’re up against a Chicago team that’s shown resilience and a knack for keeping games close. Moreover, Green Bay’s vulnerability against the run could be a significant factor, especially considering they’ve surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards in the league.

On the offensive front, the Bears, led by the dynamic Justin Fields, have consistently hit high-scoring marks post-bye week, with a median of 27 points. Fields’ motivation and Green Bay’s defensive woes present a ripe opportunity for Chicago to surpass the 21.5 points threshold.

NHL: Winnipeg Jets vs Arizona Coyotes

Pick: Coyotes/Jets Over 6 / Wager: 2%

The Jets, with their offensive prowess led by players like Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey, are poised to contribute to a high-scoring game against the Coyotes. Their aggressive play, combined with Connor Hellebuyck’s solid performance in goal, suggests the team might push the pace offensively. This strategy, coupled with the Jets’ capability to create scoring opportunities, hints at a game where the puck frequently finds the back of the net, making the over 6 a compelling bet.

NHL: LA Kings @ Washington Capitals

Pick: Kings Moneyline (ML) / Wager: 1%

The Kings are on an offensive tear this season, with players like Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe breaking through defenses with ease. Their robust offensive strategy, paired with the goaltending stability provided by Cam Talbot, who has been a wall with a 0.925 save percentage, sets the stage for a Kings victory. This goaltending strength, especially against the Capitals, provides a confidence boost, making the Kings a solid pick for the Moneyline.

Pick: Red Wings Moneyline (ML) / Wager: 1%

Detroit’s dynamic offense, spearheaded by Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin, is crucial in their quest for victory. The Red Wings’ ability to slice through defenses is particularly significant against the Ducks, who’ve shown defensive vulnerabilities. Anaheim’s John Gibson’s underperformance further tips the scales in Detroit’s favor, as their potent offense could exploit any goalie struggles, making the Red Wings Moneyline an attractive wager.

Calgary Flames vs Chicago Blackhawks

Pick: Calgary -1.5 / Wager: 2%

Calgary’s formidable trio of Blake Coleman, Nazem Kadri, and Yegor Sharangovich is likely to overwhelm Chicago’s defense, potentially leading to a victory by a significant margin. The goaltender matchup also leans in Calgary’s favor, with Jacob Markstrom facing Chicago’s Petr Mrazek, who’s had a tough season. If Calgary can capitalize on Mrazek’s vulnerabilities, the -1.5 bet becomes increasingly enticing, promising a potentially rewarding payout for those who back the Flames.

NCAAB: SMU vs Memphis

Pick: SMU +7 / Wager: 3%

The line shift from 4 to 7 in favor of the opposition might seem daunting, but for SMU, it’s an opportunity to capitalize on the extra cushion. The analytics and projections, including those from KenPom, indicate this game is more likely to be decided by a narrower margin, possibly around 4 points. While some experts are even suggesting a tight one-point game, indicating SMU’s potential to upset, it’s wise to proceed with caution after a successful NCAA Basketball day. SMU’s capacity to compete with formidable opponents is evident, and the Tigers’ home advantage cannot be underestimated. However, given SMU’s track record of holding their own against tougher teams, taking SMU +7 offers a strategic bet to cover the spread in what’s expected to be a closely contested game.

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets

Picks: Anfernee Simons over 3.5 rebounds / Wager: 1%, Anfernee Simons over 26.5 points + assists / Wager: 2%

Anfernee Simons of the Portland Trail Blazers has been a consistent performer in the rebounding department, surpassing 3.5 rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games. This trend, coupled with a favorable line against the Brooklyn Nets, presents a valuable opportunity for a 1% wager. Additionally, Simons’s scoring and assisting prowess, averaging 24.5 PPG and 5.0 APG, sets him up for success against the Nets, who have been particularly vulnerable to point guards, conceding the third-highest points per game to the position. Despite recent setbacks, Simons is expected to be fully unleashed without any minutes restriction, positioning him for a strong comeback and making the over 26.5 points + assists an attractive bet with a 2% wager. As Simons steps onto the court, the anticipation for a stellar performance against the accommodating Nets defense is high, making these picks compelling considerations for today’s NBA action.

NBA: Clippers vs. Lakers

Pick: Anthony Davis under 12.5 rebounds / Wager: 3%

In the latest chapter of the Los Angeles basketball saga, the Lakers and the Clippers are heading in divergent paths. The Lakers' recent form is worrisome, with nine losses in their last 11 games, while the Clippers have been surging, boasting 14 wins in their last 16 outings. This internal city clash sees the Clippers as the favorites, and rightly so, given their current rhythm and cohesion.

Focusing on the Lakers' Anthony Davis, who's a dominant force in the league with an average of 12.3 rebounds per game, there's an intriguing trend when he faces the Clippers. Historically, Davis has found it challenging against them, averaging only 8.6 rebounds across 12 regular-season encounters since donning the Lakers jersey. Notably, his only substantial rebounding performance against the Clippers came when LeBron James was absent and he faced an older Serge Ibaka. However, tonight's scenario is different, and we anticipate a continuation of this trend.

Our predictive model estimates Davis will pull down approximately 10.4 rebounds, well below his set prop line. This projection aligns with the Clippers' defensive stats, who limit opposing teams to just 42 rebounds per game, the fifth-lowest in the NBA. Furthermore, in the season's lone encounter against the Clippers, Davis managed only 10 rebounds over an extended 48-minute game that went into overtime.

Adding to this, Davis has fallen short of this rebounding line in five of his last eight games. The Clippers' formidable defense, particularly their prowess in limiting points in the paint, suggests a tough night for Davis on the boards. We're placing a 3% wager on Davis to remain under 12.5 rebounds, considering the matchup's history and current form.

3 Team Favorite NBA Parlay

Pick: Cavaliers ML + Nets ML + Clippers ML @ +119 / Wager: 2%

We say, why not? We liked the clippers the most and there line keeps flying away. We liked Nets and Cavs to cover- so here we are. Let’s have a great day. Let’s get that bag!!