Momentum Rising: Cotton Bowl Showdown, College Hoops Action, & More

Hitting Our Stride – Another Winning Day:
Yesterday reminded us why college basketball is the bread and butter of the BrownBagBets approach. A perfect 4-0 sweep in NCAAB plays carried the day, even as a last-second Notre Dame field goal in the Orange Bowl blemished our overall record. Despite that, we’re not mad. Why? Because it was still a winning day, with a 3% bankroll gain pushing us to 112% of where we started January.

What’s more, our Penn State play at +1.5 showed we were on the right side of the sharps, with the line closing at Penn State -1. That’s the kind of edge and foresight we pride ourselves on, proving once again that the process works.

Riding Momentum into the Weekend:
January is shaping up nicely, and as we build on this momentum, it’s a reminder of why discipline, strategy, and sharp execution are at the heart of what we do. Every play matters, and every lesson—win or lose—feeds into the bigger picture.

Today brings us another marquee moment with the Cotton Bowl Classic, alongside select opportunities in college hoops, NBA, and NHL. It’s days like these where focus and precision turn potential into profit.

Tonight’s Slate – Headlined by the Cotton Bowl Classic:

• Cotton Bowl Classic:

  • Ohio State vs. Texas

  • The Buckeyes enter as 6-point favorites after dismantling Oregon, while Texas rides high after an overtime thriller against Arizona State.

  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

  • Betting Lines: Ohio State -241 money line; Over/Under set at 53.5 points.

• College Hoops:

  • While the slate is lighter, there are key matchups, including UCLA at Maryland, offering solid value to target.

• NBA and NHL Plays:

  • Both leagues provide a handful of opportunities to round out the board and keep the momentum going.

Final Thought – Let’s Keep Winning:
Yesterday’s gains show we’re hitting our stride, and today’s action offers another chance to push forward. With the Cotton Bowl Classic, a select NCAAB slate, and strong opportunities in NBA and NHL, the pieces are in place to keep January moving in the right direction.

Let’s stay sharp, stay disciplined, and make this month one to remember. The wins are coming—let’s go get them!

NCAAF - Cotton Bowl - National Semifinal: Ohio State vs Texas
Pick: Texas +6.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Under 54 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup is as elite as it gets, featuring two of the nation's best defenses and talented offenses. Ohio State’s defense has been dominant, allowing only 12.1 points per game, and Texas isn’t far behind, giving up just 14.5 PPG. Both teams thrive on limiting explosive plays, which will likely make this a more controlled, lower-scoring affair.

Ohio State’s explosive performances against Tennessee and Oregon may have inflated the perception of their offense, but Texas has the personnel to match the Buckeyes' talent and limit their effectiveness. Similarly, Ohio State's defense will likely stifle a Texas offense that melted down in the fourth quarter of their quarterfinal win over Arizona State.

Texas has the advantage of a de facto home field in Dallas, with a crowd that will heavily favor the Longhorns. Additionally, the talent level Texas brings to the field is arguably the best Ohio State has faced this season. This creates value in grabbing the underdog at +6.5, especially when the pregame line was closer to Ohio State -1.5. That’s right, we are now seeing this line at 6.5; just too high to go any other way at this point.

Betting Indicators

• Defensive Dominance: Both teams are top-5 in scoring defense, which supports the under.

• Line Movement: Texas was +1.5 in look-ahead lines, and getting +6 represents significant value.

• Home Advantage: Texas has a de facto home-field edge at AT&T Stadium, likely boosting their performance.

• Public Perception: The line is inflated by Ohio State’s offensive explosion in their last two games, presenting an opportunity for contrarian bettors.

Projection

• Score: Texas 24, Ohio State 21

• Outcome: A tight, defensive battle where Texas keeps it within one score and the total stays under.

NCAAB: Farleigh Dickinson (FDU) at Le Moyne
Pick: FDU +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The records may be identical, but the strength of schedules couldn’t be more different. FDU has been battle-tested against some of the toughest competition in the country, facing programs from the ACC, Big East, and Big Ten. Despite the tough slate, the Knights have been covering spreads at an impressive rate, with an 8-game streak and a 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games. This resilience highlights their ability to perform under pressure and rise to the level of their competition.

On offense, FDU’s 77.8 PPG is an impressive mark for a Northeast Conference team. Sophomore guard Terrence Brown has been a standout, averaging 21.6 points per game, and his scoring ability could prove to be the difference-maker against a Le Moyne squad that hasn’t faced nearly the same level of competition.

Le Moyne has struggled to maintain consistency, particularly against the spread, losing 10 of their last 13 ATS. Their softer schedule may leave them unprepared for the speed and aggression FDU brings to the court.

Betting Indicators

• ATS Trends: FDU is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games, while Le Moyne has struggled, going 3-10 ATS in their last 13.

• Offensive Edge: FDU averages 77.8 PPG, which is significantly higher than Le Moyne’s output against weaker competition.

• Strength of Schedule: FDU’s experience against power conference teams gives them an edge in a game of this caliber.

Projection

• Score: FDU 79, Le Moyne 72

NCAAB: UCLA at Maryland
Pick: Maryland -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

UCLA is entering this game under tough circumstances, both on and off the court. The Bruins are in the midst of a shooting slump, particularly from beyond the arc, hitting just 6 of their last 48 three-point attempts across recent losses to Nebraska and Michigan. This lack of perimeter success has placed immense pressure on their offense and limited their ability to keep pace with high-scoring teams. Guard Dylan Andrews’ struggles, with only 7 points over the last four games, further highlight the Bruins’ offensive issues.

Maryland, on the other hand, has been formidable at home, blowing out both Ohio State and Syracuse in recent matchups. The Terps boast a well-rounded lineup, headlined by 6'10" freshman Derik Queen and 6'9" senior Julian Reese, who combine for nearly 30 points per game. Maryland’s ability to score in the paint and stretch defenses makes them a tough matchup for the Bruins, who lack the depth and momentum to counter effectively.

Playing in the tough environment of the Xfinity Center, against a Maryland team averaging nearly 86 points per game at home, is a tall order for UCLA, especially given their recent inconsistencies and distractions.

Betting Indicators

• Shooting Slump: UCLA has hit just 12.5% from three-point range over their last two games.

• Home Advantage: Maryland has been dominant at home, with double-digit wins over solid competition in December.

• Frontline Presence: Maryland’s frontcourt duo of Reese and Queen is a significant mismatch against UCLA’s struggling rotation.

Projection

• Score: Maryland 81, UCLA 72

NCAAB: Central Michigan at Toledo
Pick: Toledo ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Toledo has a clear edge in this MAC matchup, particularly with its home-court advantage. The Rockets have only played four home games this season, going 3-1 SU and ATS, and this game presents a prime opportunity to solidify their standing in conference play. Key metrics suggest that Toledo thrives when executing their game plan—7-0 when leading at halftime and 6-1 when shooting 45% or better from the field. With Central Michigan allowing opponents to shoot 45% on the season, the Rockets should find offensive success.

Central Michigan has started conference play 0-2 and is struggling on both ends of the court. They lack the firepower to keep up with a Toledo offense that has shown flashes of dominance, especially at home.

Betting Indicators

• Home Performance: Toledo’s strong home record (3-1 SU & ATS) gives them a significant edge.

• Offensive Efficiency: The Rockets excel when shooting 45%+, a realistic benchmark against CMU’s defense.

• Model Confidence: Multiple models, including Massey and ESPN BPI, suggest a comfortable win for Toledo.

Projection

• Score: Toledo 79, Central Michigan 68

NCAAB: Mount St. Mary's at Manhattan
Pick: Over 150.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup between Mount St. Mary’s and Manhattan has all the ingredients for another high-scoring game, particularly given the trends emerging from both teams. Manhattan is riding an 11-game streak of overs, with its offensive firepower and lack of defensive resistance driving scorelines above expectations. With six players averaging double figures, led by standout freshman forward Will Sydnor (15.5 PPG), the Jaspers have developed a balanced offensive attack capable of keeping the pace fast and fluid.

Mount St. Mary’s has shown they are willing to adapt to their opponent's tempo. While they can be slowed by teams desiring a deliberate style, Manhattan’s approach suggests this game will turn into another shootout. Even with the absence of leading scorer Dallas Hobbs, the Mount has recently participated in a 6-1 stretch of overs, highlighting their tendency to engage in higher-scoring contests against teams that push the tempo.

Betting Indicators

• Manhattan’s Over Streak: The Jaspers have hit the over in 11 straight games, signaling a clear trend.

• Scoring Depth: Manhattan’s six double-digit scorers make them a consistent offensive threat.

• Adjustable Pace: Mount St. Mary’s has shown a willingness to run against faster-paced opponents.

Projection

• Score: Manhattan 79, Mount St. Mary’s 75

NCAAB: Wagner at Central Connecticut State
Pick: Over 117.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

At 117.5, this total is unusually low, even for two teams with strong defensive profiles. Wagner's recent game against NJIT finished with just 93 total points, but their last three games against Division I competition have gone well over this number. Meanwhile, CCSU has demonstrated offensive capability, including scoring triple digits in games earlier this season. While not a lock, the line presents value given both teams' recent scoring trends and our projections.

Betting Indicators

• Historical Totals: Wagner's last three Division I games surpassed this posted total, suggesting potential for a higher-scoring outcome.

• Team Trends: CCSU has shown the ability to score in spurts, evidenced by multiple games scoring over 100 points earlier this season.

• Projection Models: Both our model (126 points) and Massey (123 points) forecast this game exceeding the posted total of 117.5.

Projection

• Score: Wagner 64, Central Connecticut State 62

NHL: Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings
Pick: Red Wings -1.5 @ +145 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Red Wings have found their stride under new head coach Todd McLellan, rattling off five straight wins and reigniting their playoff aspirations. Detroit's offensive output has surged, scoring 17 goals in their first four wins of this streak, with Dylan Larkin leading the charge. While goaltender Cam Talbot will likely get the start, his recent form should suffice against a struggling Blackhawks squad.

Chicago has been dismal on the road, losing five straight and eight of their last nine while conceding 25 goals in those five losses. Even with Petr Mrazek's solid performance in a recent win over Colorado, his December numbers (5.39 GAA and .812 save percentage) suggest he may not replicate that effort.

This game is a prime opportunity for Detroit to climb above .500 for the first time since November. Against the league's worst team and in good form, the Wings have a strong chance to deliver a decisive victory.

Betting Indicators

• Recent Form: Detroit has won five straight games since the coaching change, scoring 17 goals in their first four wins.

• Opponent Struggles: Chicago has allowed 25 goals over its last five road losses and has the league's worst overall record.

• Player Momentum: Dylan Larkin is in peak form, riding a four-game goal streak and a six-game point streak.

Projection

• Score: Red Wings 5, Blackhawks 2

NHL: Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Canadiens may have unearthed a gem in rookie goaltender Jakub Dobes, who has been phenomenal in his first two NHL starts. Dobes has allowed just one goal on 57 shots against elite competition in Florida and Colorado, showing poise well beyond his experience. His presence significantly bolsters Montreal's ability to keep games low-scoring, even against a capable offensive team like the Capitals.

Montreal's offense is further hindered by the absence of Patrik Laine, reducing their scoring potential. The Capitals, while capable of scoring in bursts, have also played a more defensively focused game of late, with three of their last five contests staying under the total.

Betting Indicators

• Goaltending Form: Jakub Dobes has a 0.50 GAA and .982 save percentage in his first two NHL starts, both against strong offenses.

• Injuries: Montreal is missing Patrik Laine, further limiting their offensive firepower.

• Recent Trends: Washington has seen three of its last five games finish under the total, reflecting a more defense-oriented approach.

Projection

• Score: Capitals 3, Canadiens 2

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Pick: Magic +6.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Orlando remains one of the more prideful and scrappy teams in the league, particularly at home. After a tough loss last night, they’ll look to bounce back with Paolo Banchero returning to the lineup. Banchero’s presence adds a critical offensive and defensive dimension for the Magic, who have been reliable at home over the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee has struggled to consistently perform on the road, and their overall play has been middling despite their star power. Covering a 6.5-point spread on the road against a motivated Orlando team won’t be easy. The Magic’s only comparable underdog spot this season was against the Celtics, underscoring the rarity of this large spread.

Betting Indicators

• Home Resilience: Orlando has been solid at home over the past two seasons, maintaining competitiveness even in tough matchups.

• Impact of Banchero: His return bolsters Orlando’s offense and defense significantly, particularly in a matchup against a Bucks team that struggles to dominate away from home.

• Milwaukee's Road Woes: The Bucks have been inconsistent on the road and lack the killer instinct to consistently cover large spreads.

Projection

• Score: Bucks 114, Magic 110

NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks
Pick: Thunder -3.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This is a favorable matchup for Oklahoma City, as evidenced by their 10-point win over the Knicks earlier in the season. The Thunder have been one of the league's best road teams, boasting an impressive 13-4 record away from home. Notably, all 13 of their road wins have been by at least four points, underscoring their ability to not just win but dominate when they do.

The Knicks are coming off a much-needed win against the Raptors, which ended a three-game losing streak. However, their inconsistency, especially against disciplined teams like the Thunder, leaves them vulnerable. OKC’s balanced offensive approach and road success should carry the day here.

Betting Indicators

• Road Warriors: Thunder’s 13-4 road record includes consistent covering of spreads, with all 13 wins coming by at least four points.

• Recent Head-to-Head: OKC beat the Knicks by 10 in their previous meeting, demonstrating a clear matchup advantage.

• Knicks’ Inconsistencies: The Knicks have been streaky and face a tough challenge against a disciplined Thunder team riding high on road confidence.

Projection

• Score: Thunder 115, Knicks 109