Building Momentum: Today’s MLB, Euro 2024, and Copa America Picks

Yesterday was a phenomenal night for us at BrownBagBets, going 10-3 in our picks and gaining a solid 6% on our bankroll. This outstanding performance underscores the strength of our disciplined approach and the power of our community’s resilience.

Following our open letter, it’s clear that our strategy of rigorous data analysis, meticulous research, and steadfast bankroll management is paying off. We understand that the path to becoming a successful bettor involves embracing both the highs and the lows, and last night was a prime example of the highs we strive for.

Today’s Slate

As we look to today, we are optimistic and ready to build on our momentum. The slate is packed with opportunities:

• MLB: We have 15 games to analyze, each offering unique value plays that align with our strategic insights.

• Euro 2024: Four key matches are on the schedule, providing exciting opportunities for strategic betting.

• Copa America: Two matches today, adding more chances to apply our disciplined approach and secure winning bets.

Let’s continue leveraging our strategic insights and disciplined methods to keep the winning streak alive. Stay tuned for today’s picks and wagers, and let’s make the most of these opportunities!

Euro 2024: England vs Slovenia

Pick: England -1.5 / Wager: 4%

3 Lions Need Changes

England finds itself at a crossroads after a disappointing 1-1 draw against Denmark. Despite being atop Group A with four points, their performances have lacked the conviction expected from tournament favorites. Manager Gareth Southgate faces mounting pressure to optimize his squad’s potential. The experiment of positioning Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield alongside Declan Rice has not yielded the desired results, with Alexander-Arnold appearing uncomfortable and the partnership lacking balance. Southgate might abandon this setup in favor of a more traditional midfield lineup, potentially bringing in Conor Gallagher, Kobbie Mainoo, or Adam Wharton. Alternatively, he could reposition Jude Bellingham deeper, enabling Phil Foden to play as a No. 10, with Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen, or Cole Palmer on the left wing. These adjustments could help England’s attack become more cohesive and effective, which is crucial against a Slovenia side fighting for a knockout stage spot.

Slovenia Winless

Slovenia has performed admirably, defying expectations in Group C. Their campaign started with a resilient 1-1 draw against Denmark, where they managed only 32% possession but showcased disciplined defense and potent counterattacks. In their second match, Slovenia was moments away from a historic win over Serbia before a late equalizer thwarted their efforts. Despite the setback, their tenacious performance was encouraging. Slovenia’s strategy against England will likely mirror their previous games: solid defensive structure and opportunistic counterattacks. However, England, spurred by recent criticism and motivated to assert dominance, will aim to exploit Slovenia’s defensive gaps. Harry Kane, who found the net against Denmark, could be pivotal in breaking down Slovenia’s resistance, leading to a potentially comfortable win for England if tactical adjustments are made effectively.

Euro 2024: France vs Poland

Pick: France over 2.5 Goals @ +115 / Wager: 3%

France’s Urgency to Top the Group

France enters their final group match with a sense of urgency, needing a decisive victory to secure the top spot in their group. Currently tied with the Netherlands on points and goal differential, France understands the importance of not just winning but winning by a significant margin. Their performances so far have been underwhelming, managing only one goal in their first two matches—a narrow 1-0 win over Austria followed by a 0-0 draw with the Netherlands. This match against Poland presents an opportunity for France to showcase their attacking prowess, particularly with Kylian Mbappe expected to play a crucial role. Despite missing the clash with the Dutch due to injury, Mbappe is anticipated to return and will be pivotal in driving France’s offensive efforts. Given the stakes, France is likely to adopt an aggressive approach, aiming to score early and build on their lead, keeping key players like Mbappe in the game even if they establish an early advantage.

Poland’s Limited Motivation

Poland, already eliminated from the competition, has little to play for beyond national pride. This lack of competitive incentive could influence their approach, potentially leading to squad rotations and reduced intensity in their play. With nothing at stake, Poland might prioritize avoiding injuries over pushing for a result against France. Key players like Robert Lewandowski, who featured for 30 minutes against Austria, may be rested to preserve their fitness for future commitments. Poland’s defensive vulnerabilities were evident in their earlier matches, and without the pressure of advancing, their performance might lack the resilience required to contain a motivated French side. This scenario sets the stage for France to exploit Poland’s defensive frailties, aiming to boost their goal tally and secure the group’s top position with a convincing win.

Copa America: Mexico vs Venezuela

Pick: Both Teams to Score @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Venezuela in Good Form

Venezuela enters this crucial match brimming with confidence following an impressive 2-1 victory over Ecuador in their Copa America opener. The team, rejuvenated under the leadership of manager Fernando Batista, has shown remarkable improvement, contrasting sharply with their previous struggles in the South American World Cup qualifying rounds where they finished at the bottom. Batista’s influence has sparked a resurgence, resulting in a five-game unbeaten streak in the new qualifying group, including wins against Paraguay and Chile, and draws with formidable opponents like Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru.

In their match against Ecuador, Venezuela showcased their resilience and attacking prowess, particularly in the second half. Despite being down a man early in the game, Ecuador managed to take a lead into halftime. However, Venezuela’s dominance after the break, highlighted by goals from Jhonder Cádiz and Eduard Bello, secured a crucial win. This performance underscores Venezuela’s ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and their growing confidence. As they prepare to face Mexico, Venezuela’s recent form suggests they have the potential to challenge Mexico’s defense and find the back of the net.

Mexico missing Alvarez

Mexico began their Copa America journey with a narrow 1-0 victory over Jamaica, a game they largely controlled but struggled to finish clinically. The win, however, came at a cost, as captain Edson Álvarez sustained a significant injury that likely sidelines him for the match against Venezuela. Álvarez’s absence is a significant blow to Mexico, as he plays a pivotal role in anchoring the midfield, breaking up opposition plays, and maintaining possession. His defensive contributions and ability to transition the ball effectively will be sorely missed.

Without Álvarez, Mexico’s midfield might lack the stability and defensive solidity that he provides, potentially exposing their defense to Venezuela’s attacking threats. Despite this setback, Mexico’s attacking lineup remains formidable with the likes of Santiago Giménez, Orbelín Pineda, Uriel Antuna, and Julián Quiñones. These forwards have the skill and creativity to unlock Venezuela’s defense and create scoring opportunities. However, the defensive frailties introduced by Álvarez’s absence could lead to a more open game, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. This dynamic sets the stage for a match where both sides have strong chances to find the net, justifying the bet on both teams to score.

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Cole Irvin under 17.5 outs @ +105 / Wager: 4%

Irvin’s Recent Struggles

Cole Irvin has consistently struggled to pitch deep into games this season. He has failed to record more than 17 outs in 10 of his 14 appearances, including five of his last six starts. This trend suggests that Irvin is likely to be pulled before completing six innings, especially considering his recent form. His inability to last deep into games makes this under bet a strong proposition, particularly with the Guardians’ capable offense lined up against him.

Guardians’ Offensive Strength

The Cleveland Guardians’ lineup has been one of the better offensive units in the league, ranking in the top 10 in several key categories. They have been particularly effective against left-handed pitchers, which poses a significant challenge for Irvin. Given that Cleveland has maintained a strong offensive presence throughout the year, it’s reasonable to expect that they will be able to drive up Irvin’s pitch count and possibly force an early exit.

Considering Irvin’s tendency to struggle with longevity and the formidable nature of the Guardians’ lineup, betting on Irvin to record fewer than 17.5 outs presents a favorable opportunity, especially at the current odds.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Phillies ML / Wager: 7%

Detroit Tigers’ Recent Struggles

The Tigers have been in a tailspin over the past three weeks, losing 12 of their last 17 games. This significant downturn has seen them fall out of AL Central contention. Even their ace, Tarik Skubal, has been unable to halt the slide, struggling in his past two starts with a 6.97 ERA. In both outings, Detroit’s offense was shut out, reflecting not just pitching woes but a broader team struggle to generate runs and compete effectively. The morale appears low, and recent performances have not inspired confidence that a turnaround is imminent.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Dominance

Conversely, the Phillies are riding high, as evidenced by their commanding 8-1 victory over the Tigers in the series opener. Ranger Suárez, who takes the mound for Philadelphia, has been outstanding this season with a 10-1 record, a sparkling 1.75 ERA, and a WHIP of just 0.89. His consistency has been a key factor in the Phillies’ success, and they have managed to secure wins in most of his starts. Given the Tigers’ recent form and Suárez’s dominance, Philadelphia is well-positioned to continue their winning streak in this series, potentially extending Detroit’s misery.

MLB: New York Yankees at New York Mets

Pick: Mets +1.5 / Wager: 5%

Mets’ Momentum

The Mets are hitting their stride, playing some of their best baseball of the season as they enter the Subway Series opener. They’ve won three straight games started by David Peterson, suggesting a newfound confidence and effectiveness on the mound. A sweep of this two-game series against their crosstown rivals could serve as a significant catalyst for a season turnaround, building on the momentum they’ve recently gained.

Yankees’ Struggles and Injuries

The Yankees, on the other hand, are dealing with considerable struggles, compounded by key injuries. The lineup is notably weakened by the absence of Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, the latter of whom had been contributing significantly this season. While Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees, his performance may be limited as this is only his second outing since dealing with elbow trouble, likely capping his innings around five. This limitation on Cole, combined with the Yankees’ offensive struggles, gives the Mets a solid chance to keep the game close, making the +1.5 run line an attractive bet.

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Red Sox ML / Wager: 7%

Blue Jays’ Struggles

The Blue Jays are in a slump, having dropped their seventh straight game despite a valiant effort that included a three-run homer from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on Monday. They squandered a 6-2 lead due to poor defense and an unreliable bullpen, which currently has a 4.60 ERA, ranking sixth-worst in the league. This ongoing bullpen issue significantly weakens their chances of holding onto leads and closing out games effectively.

Gausman’s Vulnerability

Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays’ starter, has struggled this season with an expected ERA of 5.12. He’s been particularly vulnerable against AL East teams that are familiar with his pitching style. Last Wednesday, the Red Sox managed to score five runs (four earned) against him in just 5.2 innings. Despite the potential return of Bo Bichette, Toronto’s overall form and Gausman’s inconsistency give the Red Sox a favorable outlook.

Red Sox’s Hot Streak

The Red Sox are surging, capitalizing on their opponents’ weaknesses. With their recent success against Gausman and their ability to exploit a struggling Blue Jays bullpen, Boston is well-positioned to continue their hot streak. The combination of Toronto’s faltering performance and the Red Sox’s current momentum makes the Red Sox a strong pick to win this matchup.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Under 9 / Wager: 6%

Historical Unders Trend

Despite last night’s rare high-scoring game at Great American Ballpark, the overall trend between these teams has been towards low-scoring affairs. All three of their clashes at PNC Park last week ended with clear “unders,” showcasing a pattern of tight, low-scoring games. Additionally, the Reds had an 11-2 “under” streak in the 13 games leading up to Sunday’s clash with the Red Sox, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

Pitching Matchup: Keller vs. Greene

The same pitchers who faced off last Wednesday, Mitch Keller for the Pirates and Hunter Greene for the Reds, are on the mound again. Their previous encounter ended in a 1-0 victory for the Pirates, highlighting both pitchers’ ability to control the game and keep runs to a minimum. Keller and Greene have proven they can effectively stifle the opposing lineups, and with the Pirates’ ongoing struggles to score (only 16 runs in their last six games, including Monday’s five), another low-scoring game is highly probable.

Considering the pitching matchup and the recent trend of unders between these teams, betting on the under 9 runs is a solid choice.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals +1.5 / Wager: 6%

Cardinals’ Resurgence and Improved Lineup

The Cardinals are riding a four-game winning streak and have a significantly stronger lineup with the return of key players. Willson Contreras is back from the injured list, and the powerful duo of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are also in action. This offensive boost makes St. Louis a more formidable opponent, particularly at home.

Pitching Matchup: Gibson vs. López

Kyle Gibson has been in excellent form for the Cardinals, boasting a 2.20 ERA over his past five starts. His consistency provides a stable foundation for the Cardinals to stay competitive in this game. On the other hand, while Atlanta’s Reynaldo López has been impressive, his performance has been so exceptional that a regression is likely. Additionally, the Braves will be without their No. 1 shortstop, Orlando Arcia, which further tilts the scales in favor of St. Louis.

Considering the Cardinals’ recent form, improved lineup, and reliable pitching from Gibson, taking St. Louis on the run line (+1.5) is a strong bet.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -2.5 @ +125 / Wager: 6%

Astros’ Momentum and Strong Performances

The Houston Astros are currently on a hot streak, playing some of their best baseball this season. Their offensive lineup is mashing again, and their outfield defense is exceptional. Additionally, the bullpen has solidified with Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly looking like shutdown relievers. Hunter Brown has been a revelation, completely turning his season around with a 1.45 ERA over his last five starts, striking out 38 batters in 31 innings while allowing just 5 walks. This dominant performance on the mound is a key reason to back the Astros to win convincingly.

Rockies’ Struggles with Gomber and Recent Form

On the flip side, the Colorado Rockies have struggled when Austin Gomber takes the mound, with a 5-9 record in his starts. They’ve lost 8 of those 9 games by 2 runs or more, including 4 straight defeats. Gomber’s June has been particularly rough, posting a 9.68 ERA. The Rockies’ recent form on the road is also concerning, with a 3-6 record on the run line in their last 8 road games.

Given Houston’s current form and Colorado’s struggles with Gomber, taking the Astros to cover the -2.5 spread at +125 offers good value. The Astros’ strong offense and solid pitching from Brown should see them comfortably handle the Rockies in this matchup.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 / Wager: 6%

Chris Flexen’s Struggles and White Sox’s Performance

Chris Flexen’s numbers continue to astonish, but not in a good way. The White Sox are a dismal 2-14 in games he starts, and 13 of those losses have been by 2 runs or more. This season, they have lost eight straight of his starts, with seven of those losses being by at least 2 runs. In more than half of his starts, the White Sox have lost by 5 runs or more. Flexen’s performance has been a liability for Chicago, and his inability to keep games close has been a recurring theme.

Dodgers’ Offensive Firepower and White Sox’s Bullpen Fatigue

While Bobby Miller hasn’t been outstanding for the Dodgers, the glaring weaknesses in the White Sox lineup, combined with their overworked bullpen, present a significant opportunity for the Dodgers. The White Sox had to rely heavily on their relievers last night as Garrett Crochet couldn’t complete 6 innings. This added strain on their bullpen makes them vulnerable, especially against a potent Dodgers lineup capable of exploiting these weaknesses.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Royals -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 6%

Royals’ Dominance at Home Against Weaker Teams

The Kansas City Royals have a knack for taking care of business against sub-.500 teams, especially at home. They boast an impressive 30-16 record against such opponents, often securing decisive victories. The Royals’ performance is bolstered when Seth Lugo is on the mound, as they are 11-5 in his starts, with 10 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more. This success is largely attributed to the strong run support Lugo typically receives. Additionally, the Royals have a solid 23-17 record against the spread (ATS) at home and feature the second-best home OPS in MLB. This combination of factors makes them a formidable opponent for the Marlins.

Challenges for Miami’s Yonny Chirinos and Team Dynamics

Yonny Chirinos faces a daunting task as he is forced back into the majors due to a slew of injuries in the Marlins’ rotation. His performance in AAA was less than stellar, with a lack of swing and miss (47 Ks in 66 IP), indicating potential struggles against MLB hitters. While he managed a solid first start against the St. Louis Cardinals, his tendency to nibble around the strike zone often leads to too many baserunners. The Marlins’ struggles are compounded by their less-than-stellar form and having to play in the Kansas City heat, which is not ideal for a dome team. These dynamics further tilt the odds in favor of the Royals, making the -1.5 spread a viable and attractive option.