Chipping Away: Army vs. Navy, NCAAB, NHL & NBA Picks for Today

Chipping Away

Last night was a win. Not a monumental one, but in this journey, progress is progress. A 5-4 record doesn’t scream dominance, but the 4% bankroll gain reflects exactly what we’ve been preaching: it’s not just about how many you win; it’s about where you win. Every step forward is a step closer to where we want to be, and it’s that steady, disciplined climb that makes BrownBagBets different.

The reality is, there’s still a gap to close to get back to our starting bankroll for December, but here’s the good news: time is on our side, and so is our process.

The Plan for Today

Today is stacked with opportunity. From one of college football’s most iconic rivalries to marquee matchups across NCAAB, NHL, and NBA, the day is rich with options.

Army vs. Navy: A Game Built on Tradition

The Army-Navy game isn’t just a football game—it’s an event steeped in history and pageantry. The storylines write themselves, and the trends in this game are as consistent as they come. We’ve done the deep dive, and we’ll be targeting angles that account for the game’s unique dynamics.

NCAAB: Ranked Teams Collide

College basketball is firing on all cylinders, and today features some of the most high-profile matchups of the young season. With ranked teams looking to prove themselves and find their footing, we see several opportunities to take advantage of early-season inefficiencies in the lines.

NHL and NBA

The NHL and NBA slates offer a wealth of options tonight. NHL has been a bright spot for us recently, and with plenty of matchups on the ice, we’ll aim to keep that momentum going. In the NBA, the focus will be on a handful of games where our models highlight value, targeting both sides and player props.

Staying the Course

This isn’t about trying to erase a deficit in one day or chasing a monster win. It’s about sticking to the plan, taking each day as it comes, and trusting the work we’ve put into this process. Yesterday was another reminder that even small wins compound over time.

For those who’ve been with us, you know what to expect: consistency, transparency, and a relentless pursuit of profitable months. For those new to the BrownBagBets community, welcome aboard—what you’ll find here isn’t flashy, but it works.

Let’s Go to Work

Today offers a slate full of chances to capitalize, headlined by one of football’s most cherished rivalries, high-stakes college basketball, and opportunities across NHL and NBA. This is where we lean in, trust the research, and make it count.

Let’s get to it.

English Premier League: Liverpool F.C. vs. Fulham F.C.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) / Wager: 2%

Pick: Mo Salah Anytime Goalscorer (ATGS) / Wager: 2%

Pick: Correct Score 3-1 Liverpool @ +900 / Wager: 1%

Analysis:

Liverpool sit comfortably atop the Premier League table, showcasing dominance in all competitions under Arne Slot’s guidance. They’ve been ruthless in attack, netting the third-most goals in the league while maintaining the best defensive record by a significant margin. Anfield has been a fortress, and the Reds’ current form suggests they’ll be difficult to stop, even by a resilient Fulham side.

Fulham, however, have been punching above their weight this season under Marco Silva. Sitting tenth in the table, they’ve taken points off top-tier teams such as Arsenal, Tottenham, and Brighton, showcasing their ability to challenge even the toughest opponents. Fulham’s tendency to score is worth noting—they’ve hit BTTS in 8 of their last 10 matches and have scored in their last four head-to-head meetings with Liverpool.

The high-pressing and attacking nature of both teams should create an exciting contest. Liverpool’s Mo Salah, in particular, continues to excel, scoring in four consecutive Premier League matches. With Fulham likely to leave gaps defensively in their bid to score at Anfield, Salah remains a strong candidate to add to his tally.

Fulham’s offensive approach could make this a high-scoring game, but Liverpool’s firepower should ultimately prove too much. A 3-1 victory feels realistic given both teams' form and Fulham’s ability to make matches competitive.

Betting Indicators:

• Liverpool’s Attack: Third-most goals scored in the league and firing on all cylinders.

• Fulham’s Scoring Streak: BTTS has hit in 8 of their last 10 matches, including the last 4 meetings with Liverpool.

• Mo Salah’s Form: Scored in 4 consecutive Premier League games; a strong ATGS play.

• Fulham’s Resilience: One loss in their last seven matches, taking points off top-tier teams.

• Correct Score History: Fulham’s defense often falters against elite attacking teams, creating a realistic 3-1 scenario.

Final Prediction:

Fulham will likely press forward and create chances, but Liverpool’s clinical attack, coupled with their defensive strength, should see them through. Expect both teams to score, Mo Salah to find the net, and a 3-1 Liverpool victory to continue their Premier League dominance.

Projected Score: Liverpool 3, Fulham 1.

NCAAF: Navy vs. Army

Pick: Over 39.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Navy +7 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This year’s Army-Navy game brings a refreshing offensive dynamic compared to the traditionally low-scoring affairs we've come to expect in this historic rivalry. Both teams are averaging more than 32 points per game, with modernized offensive schemes helping these academies adapt to a changing college football landscape.

Army, fresh off its AAC Championship Game victory, has displayed an ability to dominate both on the ground and through timely passing from QB Bryson Daily, who remains the focal point of their attack. The Black Knights have momentum on their side and look well-prepared for another strong showing under Jeff Monken, who continues to extract the best from his squad.

Navy has made significant improvements this season, especially under the guidance of first-year OC Drew Cronic, who introduced Wing-T elements to reinvigorate their offense. QB Blake Horvath has been a revelation when healthy, showcasing dual-threat capabilities and leading a high-scoring attack. Navy’s impressive win over a surging East Carolina team even without Horvath speaks volumes about the team’s resilience and depth.

Despite Army’s success this season, rivalry games often defy conventional expectations. Navy has played with renewed confidence and will have a near-home advantage at FedExField. The underdog has a long history of covering spreads in this matchup, and Navy’s +7 looks like excellent value given their competitive improvements this season.

Betting Indicators:

• Points Per Game: Both offenses are averaging over 32 PPG in 2024.

• Army’s Recent Form: Army’s AAC Championship win underscores their offensive efficiency.

• Navy’s Resilience: Navy’s victory over East Carolina shows their ability to rise to the occasion.

• Historical Trends: The underdog has consistently covered in this rivalry, and upsets are common.

• Venue Advantage: Proximity to Annapolis may provide Navy with a pseudo-home crowd boost.

Final Prediction:

Expect this game to feature more offense than usual, with both teams showcasing their ability to score points. While Army remains the favorite, Navy's upgrades this season make the +7 spread highly appealing, and a higher-scoring affair should push this game over the total.

Projected Score: Army 27, Navy 24.

NBA Cup Semifinal: Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Bucks ML / Wager: 5%

Analysis:

The Milwaukee Bucks are focused and motivated to win the NBA Cup, with Giannis Antetokounmpo openly expressing the team’s commitment to finishing the job after falling short in the semifinals last year. The Bucks have been dominant in high-stakes matchups this season, and their balanced roster, led by Giannis and Khris Middleton, provides both the firepower and defensive versatility to stifle Atlanta’s high-octane offense.

Trae Young’s swagger and the Hawks’ recent success, including an impressive quarterfinal win at Madison Square Garden, have rejuvenated Atlanta’s relevancy. However, Milwaukee’s size, strength, and depth present a significant mismatch. The Bucks’ ability to control the boards, limit second-chance points, and efficiently execute their half-court sets should allow them to dictate the pace.

Betting Indicators:

• Motivation: Bucks’ “unfinished business” in the NBA Cup is evident in their statements and play.

• Matchup Advantage: Milwaukee’s defensive length can neutralize Trae Young’s effectiveness.

• Track Record: Bucks are 10-3 in their last 13 games, demonstrating consistency in big moments.

Final Prediction:

The Bucks’ superior roster and playoff-like intensity will lead them to victory in Las Vegas.

Projected Score: Bucks 116, Hawks 108.

NBA Cup Semifinal: Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Isaiah Hartenstein has been a consistent producer, clearing this prop in 7 of his last 9 games. Against a Rockets team that struggles to defend rim-running big men and pick-and-roll roll-men, Hartenstein is poised for another productive outing. He posted a 32 Points + Rebounds performance in a recent matchup against Houston, demonstrating his ability to exploit this particular defense.

Hartenstein’s role is especially crucial against the Rockets’ Alperen Şengün, who presents a challenge inside but leaves openings defensively. With the Thunder likely relying on Hartenstein for extended minutes in this semifinal showdown, his rebounding and scoring opportunities will naturally increase.

Betting Indicators:

• Prop Trend: Hartenstein has surpassed this number in 7 of his last 9 games.

• Matchup Fit: Rockets rank below average in defending roll-men and rim-runners.

• Recent Success: Hartenstein dominated Houston with a 32 P+R game earlier this season.

Final Prediction:

Hartenstein’s role and matchup provide an excellent opportunity to hit the over on this prop.

Projected Line: 25 Points + Rebounds.

NCAAB: Auburn vs. Ohio State

Pick: Auburn -11.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This game, though technically a neutral-site contest, is being played in Atlanta, providing Auburn with a significant geographic and crowd advantage given its proximity to Birmingham. The line has moved from 8.5 to 11.5, signaling sharp money strongly backing the Tigers. Auburn’s athleticism and ability to dominate in transition should prove to be the difference maker, especially considering both teams’ struggles on the defensive glass.

Ohio State’s glaring weakness at the free-throw line—ranking 279th nationally in free-throw percentage—is a major liability in a game like this, costing them valuable points that could keep the score closer. Conversely, Auburn’s pressure defense and ability to exploit turnovers create significant opportunities to extend leads in critical moments. With 70% of the public and sharps backing the Tigers, Auburn is in a prime position to cruise to a comfortable victory.

Betting Indicators:

• Line Movement: Sharp money moved the line from -8.5 to -11.5.

• Free-Throw Disparity: Ohio State’s poor free-throw shooting puts them at a disadvantage in close moments.

• Athleticism Edge: Auburn’s physicality and speed create matchup nightmares for Ohio State.

• Public Support: Over 70% of money backing Auburn.

Final Prediction:

Auburn’s athleticism, defensive pressure, and local support in Atlanta will fuel a decisive victory.

Projected Score: Auburn 78, Ohio State 63.

NCAAB: Maine at Canisius

Pick: Maine -7.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Maine is heavily favored here, supported by 83% of the betting cash going their way. The KenPom metrics also align with this position, projecting Maine as a 9-point favorite. A key factor in this matchup is Maine’s defensive prowess. They excel at forcing turnovers, a weakness for Canisius, whose ball security is well below the national average.

Defensively, Maine has a significant edge with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking far superior to Canisius, who struggles in this department. Maine’s ability to create transition opportunities from turnovers could prove decisive, especially against a Canisius defense that has consistently allowed easy scoring opportunities.

Betting Indicators:

• Public & Sharp Money: 83% of the cash is on Maine.

• KenPom Projection: Maine favored by 9 points, reinforcing value on -7.5.

• Turnover Differential: Maine forces turnovers at an above-average rate, while Canisius struggles to protect the ball.

• Defensive Edge: Maine’s defensive efficiency is markedly better than Canisius.

Final Prediction:

Maine’s stifling defense and ability to capitalize on turnovers will carry them to a comfortable win.

Projected Score: Maine 74, Canisius 63.

NCAAB: Auburn vs. Ohio State

Pick: Auburn -11.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This game, though technically a neutral-site contest, is being played in Atlanta, providing Auburn with a significant geographic and crowd advantage given its proximity to Birmingham. The line has moved from 8.5 to 11.5, signaling sharp money strongly backing the Tigers. Auburn’s athleticism and ability to dominate in transition should prove to be the difference maker, especially considering both teams’ struggles on the defensive glass.

Ohio State’s glaring weakness at the free-throw line—ranking 279th nationally in free-throw percentage—is a major liability in a game like this, costing them valuable points that could keep the score closer. Conversely, Auburn’s pressure defense and ability to exploit turnovers create significant opportunities to extend leads in critical moments. With 70% of the public and sharps backing the Tigers, Auburn is in a prime position to cruise to a comfortable victory.

Betting Indicators:

• Line Movement: Sharp money moved the line from -8.5 to -11.5.

• Free-Throw Disparity: Ohio State’s poor free-throw shooting puts them at a disadvantage in close moments.

• Athleticism Edge: Auburn’s physicality and speed create matchup nightmares for Ohio State.

• Public Support: Over 70% of money backing Auburn.

Final Prediction:

Auburn’s athleticism, defensive pressure, and local support in Atlanta will fuel a decisive victory.

Projected Score: Auburn 78, Ohio State 63.

NCAAB: Murray State at Western Kentucky

Pick: Western Kentucky -5.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Hilltoppers are positioned well here with significant cash flow backing them—23% more cash compared to ticket volume suggests sharp action is on Western Kentucky. Defensively, they hold a distinct edge with an adjusted efficiency ranking well above the national average.

Breaking down KenPom’s Four Factors, the Hilltoppers excel across the board, particularly in Effective FG%, Turnover %, Offensive Rebounding %, and FTA/FGA. Playing at home adds another layer of comfort, making this a strong play to cover the spread.

Betting Indicators:

• Sharp Money Influence: 23% more cash than ticket volume on WKU.

• KenPom Metrics: All four factors are above the national average for WKU.

• Home Advantage: Game played in Bowling Green, Kentucky, gives a further edge.

Projected Score: Western Kentucky 75, Murray State 67.

NCAAB: Arizona vs. UCLA

Pick: Over 146.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This intriguing matchup pits two teams with starkly contrasting styles against each other. Arizona, despite a disappointing start to their season (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS), brings an explosive offense that averages 87 points per game, ranking among the top in the nation in scoring. On the other hand, UCLA (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) boasts the nation’s top-ranked defense, allowing a mere 55 points per game. The clash between Arizona's high-octane offense and UCLA's suffocating defense creates an intriguing dynamic for the total.

Arizona’s pace of play should dictate much of the game’s tempo. The Wildcats excel in transition and push the pace relentlessly, which has led to the over hitting in 6 of their 8 games this season. Meanwhile, UCLA’s methodical half-court approach and defensive prowess might initially slow things down, but they are not immune to high-scoring games against elite offenses, especially on a neutral court like the Footprint Center in Phoenix.

The Wildcats' struggles this year haven’t been due to their offense—they’ve consistently scored at a high clip. Meanwhile, UCLA’s defense, while excellent, will face its toughest test yet against Arizona's ability to create fast-paced scoring opportunities. Arizona's vulnerability on defense (allowing 73.5 points per game) gives UCLA plenty of chances to contribute to the over, as the Bruins average 76.4 points per game themselves.

Betting Indicators:

• Arizona’s Scoring: Averaging 87 PPG, leading to the over hitting in 6 of 8 games.

• UCLA’s Defense: The nation’s top-rated defense, but this will be its stiffest test yet.

• Tempo Clash: Arizona enforces a fast pace, while UCLA operates in a more methodical half-court style.

• Neutral Site Dynamic: Games at neutral sites often trend higher-scoring due to unfamiliar environments for defensive schemes.

Final Prediction:

Expect Arizona to impose their fast-paced style and force a higher-scoring game than UCLA typically encounters. While UCLA’s defense will get stops, Arizona's offensive explosiveness and defensive lapses should push this game over the total.

Projected Score: Arizona 79, UCLA 74.

NCAAB: Bradley at Santa Clara

Pick: Santa Clara -3 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Santa Clara’s offense has been surging, particularly due to the impressive play of transfer guard Carlos Stewart. Over the past four games, Stewart has been lethal from deep, shooting 57% on triples (12 of 21) and averaging 17.3 points per game, with an overall shooting percentage of 63.2% (24 of 38). This is exactly the production head coach Herb Sendek envisioned when Stewart returned to Santa Clara after his stint at LSU.

Bradley has had a strong start to the season at 8-1, but their schedule has been relatively soft. Their lone matchup against a competitive WCC opponent, Washington State, resulted in a blowout loss. Santa Clara’s familiarity with Lee’s Family Forum (where they played Arizona State five weeks ago) could be an additional edge in what feels like a favorable matchup for the Broncos.

Betting Indicators:

• Carlos Stewart’s Surge: Shooting 63.2% overall and 57% from deep over the last four games.

• Schedule Disparity: Bradley’s soft schedule has left them untested against quality opposition.

• Venue Advantage: Familiarity with the neutral site from earlier this season gives Santa Clara added confidence.

Final Prediction:

Santa Clara's offensive momentum and tougher schedule make them a strong play here. Expect the Broncos to cover the short spread comfortably.

Projected Score: Santa Clara 74, Bradley 67.

NCAAB: St. Bonaventure at Providence

Pick: St. Bonaventure +4 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The cash flow is heavily tilted toward St. Bonaventure, with a 23% delta suggesting sharp money backing. Providence has looked strong but hasn’t consistently proven they can create significant separation in tight matchups. Multiple trusted sources align this as a near pick’em or a game decided by a single point, making the +4 an appealing value play.

St. Bonaventure’s ability to control tempo and play tight defense could frustrate Providence. While the Friars hold the home-court edge, this matchup appears much closer than the line suggests.

Betting Indicators:

• Public vs. Sharp Split: 23% more cash than ticket volume on St. Bonaventure.

• Market Consensus: Trusted models see this as a 1-point game.

• Close Game Trends: Friars struggle to dominate against disciplined teams.

Projected Score: Providence 67, St. Bonaventure 66.

NCAAB: Utah Valley at Jacksonville State

Pick: Jacksonville State ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Jacksonville State is positioned well in this matchup against a Utah Valley team that has struggled on the road. The Gamecocks are among the national leaders in fewest fouls and defensive rebounding, two critical factors, especially on their home court. Their ability to dominate inside defensively (31st in 2-point field goal percentage defense) should neutralize Utah Valley’s attack, which isn’t reliant on perimeter shooting.

Utah Valley, at 1-4 on the road, has shown vulnerability away from home, losing their last four road games by an average of 15 points per game. The Wolverines face a tough travel schedule coming from Orem, Utah, to Jacksonville, Alabama, ahead of their conference opener next week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State’s narrow losses to strong opponents like Toledo, James Madison, and South Alabama highlight their ability to compete in close contests.

Betting Indicators:

• Home-Court Edge: Jacksonville State’s strength in rebounding and defensive discipline makes them tough to beat at home.

• Travel Challenges for Utah Valley: Poor road record (1-4) and logistical difficulties traveling to Alabama.

• Matchup Advantage: Utah Valley struggles to shoot from three, an area where Jacksonville State has defensive gaps.

Final Prediction:

Expect Jacksonville State to capitalize on their defensive edge and Utah Valley’s road struggles. The Gamecocks should win outright at home.

Projected Score: Jacksonville State 70, Utah Valley 63.

NCAAB: Marquette at Dayton

Pick: Dayton ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Dayton boasts a 7-0 SU record at home and a dominant 23-game winning streak at their venue, highlighting their ability to protect their home court. The Flyers excel in limiting turnovers (9th in turnover percentage) and shooting efficiency at home (60% inside the arc), giving them the edge in a game where possession and precision will be key. Marquette thrives on creating turnovers and scoring in transition, but Dayton’s ball security and experienced backcourt will neutralize those strengths.

The Golden Eagles, playing just their third road game of the season, have struggled with sub-50% shooting inside the arc on the road and lack elite three-point shooting to compensate. Dayton, with its defensive prowess on the perimeter, should exploit this mismatch and capitalize on its well-rounded, experienced roster.

Betting Indicators:

• Home-Court Advantage: Dayton has won 23 straight games at home.

• Turnover Disparity: Flyers rank 9th in turnover percentage, minimizing Marquette’s ability to generate transition offense.

• Shooting Efficiency: Dayton shoots 60% inside the arc at home, compared to Marquette’s <50% road efficiency.

• Matchup Fit: Dayton defends the perimeter well, limiting a key offensive component for Marquette.

Final Prediction:

Dayton’s disciplined and experienced play will hold strong against Marquette's high-pressure style, earning the Flyers a signature win at home.

Projected Score: Dayton 74, Marquette 70.

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken

Pick: Kraken ML @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Tampa Bay faces significant challenges heading into the final game of their West Coast road trip. With five straight starts for Andrei Vasilevskiy, there’s a strong possibility backup Jonas Johansson gets the nod in net, a significant downgrade as Tampa's goalie depth chart has the league's largest drop-off between starter and backup. Tampa is also dealing with injuries to key players, including Victor Hedman and Brandon Hagel, who both missed practice on Friday.

Seattle, despite some early-season inconsistency, has the tools to take advantage of a shorthanded and fatigued Lightning squad. Playing at home with rest, the Kraken can capitalize on Tampa’s weary legs and possible backup goaltending.

Betting Indicators:

• Tampa Injuries: Key players (Hedman, Hagel, and others) are questionable, impacting Tampa’s depth.

• Road Trip Fatigue: Final game of a four-game West Coast swing for the Lightning.

• Goalie Drop-off: Potential move from Vasilevskiy to Johansson significantly affects Tampa’s defensive capabilities.

• Seattle’s Rest: Kraken enter the game well-rested and prepared to face a likely weakened Tampa roster.

Final Prediction:

Seattle takes advantage of a shorthanded and fatigued Tampa team, with the Kraken delivering as a live underdog at home.

Projected Score: Seattle 4, Tampa Bay 3.