BrownBagBets Saturday Betting Madness: Get the Elephant off our Backs

A Resilient Friday Leads Us Into a Massive Saturday

Yesterday felt like a perfect snapshot of November—a tough start followed by a determined rebound. We opened the day 0-4 but battled back to nearly break even, proving once again that the BrownBagBets philosophy of staying the course and trusting the process works. Resilience is the name of the game, and if there’s one thing we’ve proven time and again, it’s that we don’t fold under pressure.

Now, we turn our attention to a massive Saturday packed with action, headlined by college football. With games that carry conference championship implications and undefeated seasons on the line, today is the kind of day where our preparation, analysis, and betting strategy shine.

Today’s Slate: College Football Takes Center Stage

Here’s what’s on tap for this action-packed Saturday:

1. College Football Matchups to Watch

• Indiana (10-0) vs. Ohio State (9-1)

  • A clash of titans in the Big Ten, and yes, we’ve got a play on this one. With both teams boasting elite records, this matchup carries massive implications for the conference and the College Football Playoff picture. Indiana’s perfect record will be put to the ultimate test in Columbus against an Ohio State team determined to prove its dominance.

• Army (9-0) vs. Notre Dame (9-1)

  • Two powerhouse programs square off in South Bend in a battle of disciplined defenses and efficient offenses. This game is circled on our slate, and we’ve identified a strong angle based on line movement and matchup indicators.

• More CFB Action:

  • Today is loaded with rivalry games, playoff-impact showdowns, and conference title deciders. From SEC powerhouses to Pac-12 underdogs, we’ve found value across the board.

2. Other Sports in Play

• NCAA Basketball:

  • Feast Week rolls into the weekend, with multi-team events (MTEs) providing wall-to-wall action. The early-season data is paying dividends, and we’ve got several games highlighted as strong value plays.

• NBA and NHL:

  • Both leagues offer robust Saturday slates, and as always, we’ve identified spots where the lines don’t fully reflect recent performance trends. These plays complement our heavier focus on football and basketball today.

Big Day, Big Opportunity

Today is exactly the kind of day we thrive on. With so much action across multiple sports, we’re dialed in and ready to execute. November has tested us, but every step of the way, we’ve shown resilience, focus, and commitment to the long-term strategy.

So let’s trust the process, stay sharp, and make this Saturday the defining moment of the month. Here’s to a massive day of winning plays!

NCAAF: University of North Carolina at Boston College

Pick: UNC -2.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

North Carolina seems to have regained its footing with three consecutive wins after a midseason stumble. Mack Brown’s pledge to return next season has added stability to a team that thrives on its strong ground game, leading the ACC in rushing. This matchup against Boston College favors the Tar Heels, particularly with the projected high winds, as their offensive style is less reliant on the passing game. Boston College, which ranks in the middle of the pack in rushing and has struggled to throw effectively against quality opponents, may find itself outmatched if forced to go run-heavy.

Key Trends:

• Rushing Advantage: UNC leads the ACC in rushing yards per game, while Boston College ranks in the middle of the pack, lacking explosiveness on the ground.

• Weather Impact: High winds could neutralize B.C.’s passing game, already inconsistent against better defenses, while UNC’s rushing attack remains unaffected.

• Momentum: UNC has won three in a row outright, showing resilience after a tough midseason stretch.

• Boston College’s Struggles vs. Strong Teams: The Eagles have been inconsistent when facing teams with balanced offensive attacks, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against winning teams.

Projected Outcome:

With their superior rushing attack and ability to adapt to adverse weather conditions, UNC is well-positioned to control the tempo and secure a road victory. Boston College’s offense is unlikely to keep pace if its passing game is hampered.

Projected Score: UNC 27, Boston College 20

NCAAF: Indiana at Ohio State

Pick: Indiana +12.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Indiana has quietly exceeded expectations, showcasing resilience and efficiency despite playing a relatively soft schedule. The Hoosiers’ ability to limit mistakes and execute explosive plays has kept them competitive in all matchups. Ohio State, on the other hand, faces significant issues with its offensive line, particularly with the loss of C Seth McGlaughlin, their third O-line casualty. This musical-chairs approach to the offensive line has disrupted the Buckeyes’ ability to dominate physically, which could open the door for Indiana to hang around. The Hoosiers may struggle with sustained drives, but QB Kurtis Rourke’s knack for connecting on big plays could keep this game within the spread.

Key Trends:

• Ohio State Offensive Line Issues: The Buckeyes are without three key O-linemen, significantly impacting their run-blocking and pass protection.

• Indiana’s Explosive Plays: QB Kurtis Rourke has led the Hoosiers to consistent chunk plays, allowing them to cover large spreads even against tougher defenses.

• Motivational Edge: This game carries elimination-game implications for Indiana, while Ohio State already has a playoff resume in play.

• ATS Performance: Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog of 10+ points, often playing up to the competition.

Projected Outcome:

Ohio State’s offensive struggles due to a patchwork offensive line, combined with Indiana’s ability to execute on big plays, should allow the Hoosiers to keep this game competitive. Look for Indiana to cover the spread in a game that may feel closer than the final score indicates.

Projected Score: Ohio State 31, Indiana 21

NCAAF: Colorado at Kansas
Pick: Kansas ML @ +120 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Kansas has been on an upward trajectory, playing like a top-25 team in recent weeks. Their gritty victory at BYU last week demonstrated resilience and adaptability, marking their second consecutive win against ranked opponents. Meanwhile, Colorado has exceeded preseason expectations but has not been as tested against top-tier competition, with their lone matchup against a ranked FBS opponent resulting in a narrow loss to Kansas State.

Kansas’s balanced attack, featuring a strong ground game and a rapidly improving defense, positions them well to compete in this shootout. Colorado’s high-powered offense, led by Shedeur Sanders, will certainly keep them in the game, but Kansas’s battle-tested nature and home-field advantage give them the edge.

Key Trends:

• Kansas Momentum: The Jayhawks are riding a two-game win streak, both over ranked opponents.

• Colorado’s Struggles Against Top Teams: The Buffaloes are 0-1 against ranked FBS teams this season.

• Jayhawks at Home: Kansas is 6-1 at home over the last two seasons, with a strong track record in tight games.

• Balanced Offense: Kansas ranks in the top 25 nationally in yards per play, offering a balanced mix of passing and rushing.

Projected Outcome:

Expect an entertaining shootout, with both offenses trading big plays. However, Kansas’s ability to control the clock with their ground game and capitalize on key defensive stops will allow them to edge Colorado in a tightly contested battle.

Projected Score: Kansas 34, Colorado 30

NCAAF: University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) at Tennessee

Pick: UTEP +42 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Late-season SEC matchups against non-conference opponents often result in inflated spreads, creating value for the underdog. Tennessee comes into this game off an emotional loss to Georgia, with potential for a letdown in focus. QB Nico Iamaleava is recovering from a concussion, and it’s unlikely the Volunteers risk him in extended action, especially with bigger games ahead. UTEP, while clearly outmatched, has shown the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, leading the Mountain West in sacks. Their defense could do enough to slow Tennessee’s scoring after the game gets out of reach. Additionally, the Miners have been competitive against the spread recently, covering in three of their last four outings.

Key Trends:

• UTEP’s Recent ATS Success: The Miners are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, performing well as significant underdogs.

• Tennessee’s ATS Struggles: The Volunteers have failed to cover in five of their last six games, often taking their foot off the gas against overmatched teams.

• Late-Season SEC Patterns: SEC teams often ease off in non-conference games late in the season, particularly when the spread exceeds 35 points.

• Defensive Impact: UTEP’s pass rush, leading the Mountain West in sacks, could create enough disruption to prevent Tennessee from piling up points.

Projected Outcome:

While Tennessee will dominate early, the large spread combined with the potential resting of key players should allow UTEP to stay within the number. Tennessee’s offense will likely throttle down in the second half, opening the door for the Miners to sneak under the 42-point margin.

Projected Score: Tennessee 45, UTEP 10

NCAAF: BYU at Arizona State
Pick: Over 48.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup features two offenses that have consistently moved the ball and found the end zone. BYU’s offense has averaged more than 30 points per game, and their last four contests have all cleared the over line. Arizona State, meanwhile, has been particularly potent at home, scoring no fewer than 27 points in Tempe this season. The Sun Devils’ ability to exploit defenses with their quick-tempo attack pairs well with BYU’s balanced offense, making a high-scoring game likely.

Defensively, both teams have shown vulnerabilities. BYU has struggled to contain opposing offenses, especially in road games, while Arizona State's defense has been prone to lapses, particularly against teams with strong passing games. This combination of offensive firepower and defensive inconsistencies creates an ideal scenario for the over.

Key Trends:

• BYU Offense: BYU has averaged 34.5 points per game over their last four outings, all of which have gone over the total.

• ASU at Home: The Sun Devils have scored 27+ points in every home game this season.

• Head-to-Head History: The last three meetings between these programs have averaged over 55 total points.

• Defensive Woes: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half nationally in yards allowed per game, contributing to shootouts.

Projected Outcome:

This game is set to feature plenty of offense, with both teams capable of delivering big plays and sustaining scoring drives. Expect a close, back-and-forth contest with the over hitting comfortably.

Projected Score: Arizona State 34, BYU 31

NCAAF: Penn State at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +11.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This is a classic underdog scenario where Minnesota’s strong defense and solid track record at home make them an appealing option. The Gophers rank 17th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 19.7 points per game, and have been competitive in nearly every matchup this season. They’ve only suffered one double-digit loss, underscoring their ability to keep games close against quality opponents.

Penn State has a high-powered offense but has struggled against elite defenses in recent weeks, particularly those with the ability to control the clock and slow the game down. Minnesota’s offensive approach, which leans heavily on the ground game and ball control, is well-suited to frustrate Penn State and keep the score within striking distance.

Key Trends:

• Minnesota’s Home Performance: The Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against ranked opponents.

• Penn State’s Struggles vs. Top Defenses: The Nittany Lions are 1-3 ATS this season against top-25 scoring defenses.

• Close Contests: Minnesota has lost just once this season by more than a touchdown, consistently staying competitive.

• Underdog Spot: Home underdogs in conference matchups of +10 to +14 are hitting at a 60% ATS clip this season.

Projected Outcome:

This game should remain tight, with Minnesota’s defense making life difficult for Penn State’s offense. While the Nittany Lions may pull off the win, expect Minnesota to cover the spread and keep things competitive into the fourth quarter.

Projected Score: Penn State 24, Minnesota 20

NCAAF: Bowling Green at Ball State
Pick: Ball State +11.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Ball State has consistently played competitive football, with seven of its last eight games being decided by 10 points or fewer. The Cardinals have a knack for hanging around in tight contests, particularly in MAC play, where their six games have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite a coaching shakeup with Mike Neu's dismissal, teams often show extra effort under interim leadership, especially in the final games of the season.

Bowling Green, while more stable on paper, has shown inconsistencies in closing out games against lesser opponents. The Cardinals’ physical running game and commitment to grinding out possessions could frustrate Bowling Green and allow Ball State to cover this hefty spread.

Key Trends:

• Close Games for Ball State: The Cardinals have played seven of their last eight games within 10 points.

• Bowling Green ATS Struggles as Large Favorites: Bowling Green is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit favorite.

• Interim Coach Motivation: Teams often rally under interim coaches, especially in home finales.

• Head-to-Head Matchups: The last three meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or fewer.

Projected Outcome:

Ball State will lean on its ground game and keep the clock moving, limiting possessions for Bowling Green. The Cardinals’ ability to turn this into a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair will keep them within the number and potentially in position for an outright upset late.

Projected Score: Bowling Green 24, Ball State 17

NCAAF: Army at Notre Dame

Pick: Notre Dame -14 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Notre Dame comes into this game with a potent offense and a solid track record against service academy teams, as evidenced by their domination of Navy earlier this season. Army’s defensive front, undersized by comparison, is likely to struggle against Notre Dame’s physical O-line and multifaceted rushing attack. QB Sam Hartman has been efficient and could exploit Army’s limited secondary when necessary. On the flip side, Army’s offense relies heavily on QB Bryson Daily, who has been banged up and missed time recently. Against a disciplined Notre Dame defense that ranks top-20 in efficiency, the Black Knights could face significant difficulty sustaining drives.

Notre Dame also has motivation to secure convincing wins as they aim for a strong finish to improve their postseason prospects. The expanded playoff implications incentivize the Irish to avoid any letdowns and maintain their dominance throughout the game.

Key Trends:

• Notre Dame ATS Record: The Irish are 8-2 ATS this season, with only a late backdoor cover against Virginia preventing a 9-1 mark.

• Army’s Struggles vs. High-Caliber Teams: Army has struggled against Power Five opponents, particularly against size and speed mismatches.

• Service Academy Factor: Notre Dame easily handled Navy, another service academy team, in a blowout earlier this season.

• Offensive Inefficiency: Army ranks near the bottom nationally in passing yards per game, which will be further hampered by Notre Dame’s pass rush and defensive speed.

Projected Outcome:

Notre Dame’s size, speed, and offensive versatility will overwhelm Army early, with the Irish pulling away by halftime. Expect a controlled second half but with enough sustained pressure to cover the two-touchdown spread. Army’s offense, reliant on QB Bryson Daily, will likely be stifled by the Irish defense.

Projected Score: Notre Dame 34, Army 13

NCAAF: Baylor at Houston
Pick: Baylor -7.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Baylor has hit its stride offensively, winning four straight games and averaging an impressive 46 points per contest during that stretch. The Bears are firing on all cylinders with a balanced offensive attack that features a strong passing game and a reliable ground game. Houston, on the other hand, has been inconsistent all season and struggled mightily in their most recent outing against Arizona, where their offense was stagnant. Baylor’s potent offense should find little resistance against a Cougars defense that has allowed over 30 points per game this season.

Key Trends:

• Baylor’s Dominance: The Bears have covered the spread in three of their last four games, with double-digit wins in all of those contests.

• Houston’s Struggles vs. Top Teams: Five of Houston’s six losses this season have come by 20+ points, highlighting their inability to stay competitive against quality opponents.

• Baylor’s Offensive Surge: Averaging 46 points per game over their last four outings, Baylor’s offense ranks in the top 10 nationally during that span.

• Home Disadvantage for Houston: While Houston has been serviceable at home, they are just 1-4 ATS this season when playing against teams with a winning record.

Projected Outcome:

Baylor’s offense is simply too much for a shaky Houston defense, and the Cougars' offensive woes are unlikely to improve against Baylor’s improving defense. Expect the Bears to take control early and maintain a comfortable margin throughout.

Projected Score: Baylor 41, Houston 24

NCAAF: USC at UCLA
Pick: Over 51.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

USC and UCLA have consistently delivered high-scoring affairs in recent years, and this matchup sets up well for another shootout. Both teams boast offenses capable of moving the ball effectively, while their defenses have struggled at times, particularly in big-game situations. USC’s defensive struggles on the road this season have been well-documented, allowing opponents to pile up points with relative ease. Meanwhile, UCLA’s offense should find opportunities to exploit the Trojans’ inconsistent secondary.

Key Trends:

• Historical Matchups: The average combined points in the last five UCLA-USC games is a staggering 83, well above this total.

• USC’s Road Defensive Woes: The Trojans are allowing 34.8 points per game on the road this season, among the worst marks in the Pac-12.

• UCLA’s Offense at Home: UCLA averages over 33 points per game at home, thriving against defenses ranked in the bottom half of the conference.

• Overs in Rivalry Games: The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 matchups between these two programs, with each game going well over the 51.5 mark.

Projected Outcome:

Both teams should find success moving the ball, with USC’s dynamic passing attack keeping the pressure on UCLA to match scores. Expect an explosive back-and-forth contest with multiple lead changes, keeping this game well over the total.

Projected Score: USC 38, UCLA 35

NCAAB: Portland State vs St. Thomas (MN)

Pick: St. Thomas ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This neutral-site matchup in Milwaukee pits two teams with contrasting strengths. Portland State relies heavily on the three-point shot, but they lack the efficiency of a well-balanced St. Thomas squad. The Tommies’ offensive efficiency and ability to adapt defensively give them the edge. St. Thomas has also proven to perform well in back-to-back situations under head coach John Tauer, showcasing a disciplined and resilient style of play.

Key Trends:

• KenPom Advantage: St. Thomas ranks roughly 40 spots higher than Portland State, indicating a noticeable edge in overall efficiency.

• Back-to-Back Success: St. Thomas is 7-1 ATS with no rest under head coach John Tauer, highlighting their ability to adjust and maintain energy in consecutive games.

• Big Sky Dominance: St. Thomas has won its last five matchups against Big Sky opponents, underscoring their ability to match up well against teams from this conference.

• Three-Point Efficiency: While both teams shoot a high volume of threes, St. Thomas is more efficient overall from the floor, a critical factor in close games.

Projected Outcome:

Expect St. Thomas to capitalize on its superior efficiency and balanced offensive approach. Portland State’s reliance on the three-pointer makes them prone to cold spells, which the Tommies’ steady scoring can exploit. With their proven success in back-to-back scenarios and their edge in execution, St. Thomas should secure the win.

Projected Score: St. Thomas 78, Portland State 72

NCAAB: University of New Mexico State at UNLV

Pick: UNLV -11 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

UNLV displayed its offensive firepower earlier this week in an emphatic 80-59 victory over Pepperdine, jumping out to a commanding 38-point lead at one point. The Rebels are hitting their stride offensively, averaging nearly 82 points per game while shooting an impressive 48% from the floor and 40% from three-point range. JUCO transfer Bear Cherry has emerged as a reliable interior presence, complementing UNLV’s perimeter attack.

New Mexico State, on the other hand, struggled mightily in their first true test against Dayton, falling in a lopsided affair. The Aggies are still finding their identity under new head coach Jason Hooten, with an overreliance on guard Christian Cook. They lack the firepower and defensive discipline needed to keep pace with a surging UNLV team.

Key Trends:

• UNLV’s Offensive Efficiency: The Rebels are scoring 82 ppg and shooting 48% from the floor, including 40% from beyond the arc.

• New Mexico State’s Struggles: The Aggies were blown out by 29 points against Dayton, exposing their inability to handle teams with size and shooting efficiency.

• Home Court Advantage: UNLV has been dominant at home, leveraging their athleticism and depth to dictate pace and overwhelm opponents.

• Bear Cherry’s Impact: The 6-11 forward has been a revelation, averaging 16 points per game while converting an absurd 86.7% of his shots, giving UNLV an interior option to balance their perimeter attack.

Projected Outcome:

UNLV’s well-rounded offense and defensive tenacity will be too much for a rebuilding New Mexico State team to handle. The Rebels should exploit mismatches in the paint and from beyond the arc, controlling the game from start to finish.

Projected Score: UNLV 84, New Mexico State 68

NCAAB: Cal State Baptist at Eastern Washington

Pick: Cal St. Baptist -6.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Eastern Washington has shown some competitive moments this season, particularly in their win against Seattle and respectable performances against Missouri and Cal Poly. However, their glaring weakness lies in their perimeter defense, which ranks among the worst in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot effectively from deep. This vulnerability aligns well with Cal Baptist’s recent improvement in three-point shooting, hitting 31.1% over their last three games.

Cal Baptist also holds notable advantages in offensive rebounding and free throw shooting, two critical areas that could prove decisive in a close game. The Lancers’ ability to protect the ball and maintain possession should limit Eastern Washington’s chances to capitalize on turnovers, further tilting the matchup in their favor.

Key Trends:

• Eastern Washington’s Defensive Struggles: Ranked 3rd worst nationally in perimeter defense, making them susceptible to Cal Baptist’s improving three-point shooting.

• Cal Baptist’s Offensive Rebounding Edge: The Lancers crash the glass effectively, which should create second-chance opportunities against an Eastern Washington team that struggles in this area.

• Free Throw Shooting Disparity: Cal Baptist shoots significantly better from the stripe, giving them an edge in close-game situations.

• Eastern Washington’s Record: While competitive in spots, their inconsistency and defensive lapses have resulted in underwhelming performances.

Projected Outcome:

Cal Baptist’s superior rebounding, ball control, and free throw shooting should allow them to pull away late. Eastern Washington’s porous perimeter defense will likely be exposed, giving the Lancers ample opportunities to stretch the lead and cover the spread.

Projected Score: Cal St. Baptist 75, Eastern Washington 66

NCAAB: Prairie View A&M at Northern Colorado

Pick: Northern Colorado -18.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Prairie View A&M wraps up a grueling West Coast road trip against a Northern Colorado squad that has proven competitive against higher-tier opponents. The Bears pushed Colorado to double overtime in a narrow loss and held their own against Washington State, further demonstrating their ability to challenge strong teams. Notably, Northern Colorado’s four wins this season have been decisive, showcasing their potential to handle overmatched opponents like Prairie View.

Meanwhile, Prairie View’s defense has been a glaring issue, allowing an eye-popping 94 points per game. This porous defense aligns perfectly with Northern Colorado’s balanced offensive attack, which should dominate both in the paint and beyond the arc. Additionally, Prairie View’s extended travel and schedule fatigue will likely exacerbate their struggles.

Key Trends:

• Prairie View’s Defensive Woes: Allowing 94 points per game, ranking near the bottom nationally in defensive efficiency.

• Northern Colorado at Home: The Bears have been solid at home, with decisive wins and an efficient offense.

• ATS Records: Prairie View is just 2-7 ATS dating back to last season, while Northern Colorado is 4-1 ATS in their last five.

• Travel Fatigue Factor: Prairie View is at the tail end of a demanding road trip, further diminishing their ability to stay competitive.

Projected Outcome:

Northern Colorado’s offensive consistency and Prairie View’s defensive struggles create a mismatch that favors the Bears. The home team should exploit the Panthers’ fatigue and defensive lapses to build a large lead and comfortably cover the spread.

Projected Score: Northern Colorado 96, Prairie View A&M 72

NCAAB: Santa Clara at Stanford

Pick: Santa Clara +1.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Santa Clara found its rhythm in a dominant 96-54 win over UC Riverside on Tuesday, snapping a three-game skid. The Broncos finally displayed offensive efficiency, particularly from beyond the arc, shooting a stellar 55% (12-for-22) from three after a rough start to the season in that department. Herb Sendek’s team also saw significant contributions from its frontcourt, highlighted by 7-footer Christoph Tilly, who dropped 20 points in the win.

Stanford, under new HC Kyle Smith, is undefeated at 5-0 but has not yet faced a team of Santa Clara’s caliber. The Cardinal’s defense hasn’t been tested by a high-powered offense, and SCU’s perimeter shooting could create matchup issues. Last season, Santa Clara beat Stanford convincingly, 89-77, on this same floor. With the Broncos riding the momentum of their recent win and the familiarity of this rivalry, they look poised to keep it close or win outright.

Key Trends:

• Santa Clara’s Resurgence: Broncos shot 55% from deep in their last game after hitting just 26% from three prior.

• Recent History: Santa Clara defeated Stanford by 12 points in this matchup last November at Maples Pavilion.

• Stanford’s Schedule: The Cardinal are 5-0 but have not faced a team as competitive as Santa Clara thus far.

• Santa Clara’s Versatility: Contributions from bigs like Christoph Tilly and the potential return to form of Carlos Stewart make SCU a tough matchup.

Projected Outcome:

Santa Clara’s renewed shooting form and ability to spread the floor should keep them competitive against Stanford. With the Broncos finding their stride and the Cardinals yet to face a true challenge, expect a close game with Santa Clara possibly pulling off the upset.

Projected Score: Santa Clara 77, Stanford 74