Staying Steady: BrownBagBets Shifts Focus to MLB and NHL

Yesterday was nearly an even day for us at BrownBagBets, with a slight dip in our bankroll. It’s nothing to worry about as we maintain our long-term perspective and strategic approach. Today, our attention shifts to the diamond and the ice, with a full slate of MLB games and thrilling NHL action.

The NBA takes a backseat for the moment, as the Celtics enjoy a rest day while awaiting the conclusion of the Western Conference Finals. This break gives us the perfect opportunity to zero in on baseball and hockey, where we’ve identified some promising plays.

Let’s keep our focus sharp and our strategies solid as we navigate today’s betting landscape. With BrownBagBets, every day is a chance to learn, adjust, and aim for success.

NHL Western Conference Finals: Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Edmonton Oilers ML / Wager: 4%

Oilers Poised for Bounce-Back Win at Home

The Edmonton Oilers are due for a break and are well-positioned to secure a much-needed victory against the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. Betting on the Oilers to win on the money line offers significant value based on current dynamics and historical performance trends.

Resilient Performance After Losses

The Oilers have demonstrated resilience throughout the season, maintaining a 3-0 record after losing two consecutive games since February. They have not lost three games in a row since December, showcasing their ability to bounce back from adversity. Edmonton’s strong response to setbacks indicates they are well-equipped to rebound in this crucial game.

Power Play Potential

Edmonton’s power play has struggled recently, going 0-for-5 against Dallas and 1-for-16 dating back to the series against the Canucks. However, teams generally receive more power play opportunities at home, and Edmonton’s potent power play unit is due for a breakthrough. A few favorable calls and successful power plays could tilt the game in the Oilers’ favor.

Home Ice Advantage

The Oilers have been strong at home, and their determination to avoid going down 3-1 in the series will provide extra motivation. Edmonton outshot the Stars 30-22 and out-hit them 45-22 in the previous game but fell short due to an empty-net goal. Playing in front of their home crowd, the Oilers will be focused and energized, increasing their chances of securing a win.

Evenly Matched Series

The series between Edmonton and Dallas has been tightly contested, with neither team gaining a significant edge. Given the back-and-forth nature of the matchup, it’s unlikely that either team will win three consecutive games. The Oilers’ urgency to tie the series and avoid a significant deficit will drive their performance.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Tigers -1.5 @ +150 / Wager: 4%

Tigers Primed for a Dominant Win Behind Skubal

The Detroit Tigers are in an excellent position to secure a decisive victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of their doubleheader, which was rescheduled from Tuesday. Betting on the Tigers to cover the -1.5 run line at +150 offers significant value given the pitching matchup and the Tigers’ recent form.

Pirates’ Struggles Against Top-Line Pitching

The Pirates often struggle against top-line pitchers, as evidenced by their 8-1 loss to the Braves when Chris Sale dominated. While Tarik Skubal may not yet be in the elite category, his performance this season has been close to that level. Skubal’s 6-1 record, 2.25 ERA, and 0.85 WHIP highlight his effectiveness on the mound. Despite a rough outing against Kansas City last Wednesday, Skubal remains a formidable opponent for the Pirates.

Skubal’s Strong Season

Tarik Skubal has been a key factor in the Tigers’ success this season. His ability to limit runs and dominate opposing lineups provides the Tigers with a significant advantage. Skubal’s metrics indicate that he can effectively shut down the Pirates, who have looked overmatched against strong pitchers this season.

Tigers’ Recent Momentum

The Tigers enter this game having won three straight, showcasing improved form and confidence. This momentum is crucial as they look to take advantage of a struggling Pirates team. Detroit’s offense has also shown signs of life, which should provide ample support for Skubal.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Frankie Montas under 4.5 K’s / Wager: 3%

Fading Montas’ Strikeout Potential Against Cardinals

Frankie Montas has struggled this season, particularly in the strikeout department, making the under 4.5 K’s a strategic bet. Given Montas’ recent form and the Cardinals’ current run, this wager aligns with the situational dynamics favoring fewer strikeouts for Montas.

Montas’ 2024 Struggles

Frankie Montas has had a tough 2024 season with only one quality start since his impressive season debut. Once known for his strikeout abilities, Montas has not been the same since his injury in 2023, which sidelined him for much of the season. His strikeout rate has dropped to 6.1 K/9, reflecting his diminished ability to generate swing-and-miss stuff.

Recent Performance Trends

Montas has failed to reach five strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, highlighting his ongoing struggles. This trend is crucial as it demonstrates a consistent inability to rack up strikeouts, even against various opponents. The likelihood of him turning this trend around against a solid Cardinals lineup appears slim.

Cardinals’ Offensive Form

The Cardinals are an average strikeout team but have been playing exceptionally well, with an 11-3 run. Their ability to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts can further challenge Montas. St. Louis’ recent offensive form suggests they can maintain pressure on Montas, preventing him from reaching five strikeouts.

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants

Pick: J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 total bases @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Realmuto Primed for a Big Day Against Harrison

Despite the Phillies’ recent struggles, J.T. Realmuto has been a bright spot, consistently delivering strong performances. Betting on Realmuto to exceed 1.5 total bases offers solid value given his recent form and the favorable matchup against Kyle Harrison.

Realmuto’s Recent Form

J.T. Realmuto has been on a hot streak, recording doubles in back-to-back games and surpassing 1.5 total bases in six of his last seven games. During this stretch, he has hit two home runs and recorded three multi-hit games. Realmuto’s ability to consistently generate extra-base hits highlights his strong offensive form.

Success Against Left-Handed Pitching

Realmuto has performed significantly better against left-handed pitchers this season, boasting a .361/.400/.574 split. His proficiency against southpaws positions him well for success against Kyle Harrison, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled recently.

Kyle Harrison’s Struggles

Kyle Harrison has been knocked around in his last three starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 15 innings. His recent form indicates vulnerability, which Realmuto can exploit, especially with the wind blowing out, further aiding the potential for extra-base hits.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 4%

Dodgers Poised for Convincing Victory Against Giants

The Los Angeles Dodgers are well-positioned to secure a decisive win over the San Francisco Giants, especially following their momentum-boosting extra-inning victory. Betting on the Dodgers to cover the -1.5 run line at +135 offers significant value given the current dynamics and pitching matchup.

Momentum from Extra-Inning Win

The Dodgers’ extra-inning heroics in the first game on Tuesday provided a much-needed morale boost, snapping their losing streak. This victory relieves some pressure and sets them up for a strong performance in the following game. The Dodgers’ bats are likely to carry this momentum into their matchup against the Giants.

Pitching Matchup: David Peterson’s First Start

David Peterson is making his first start of the season for the Giants. Given his lack of recent starting experience and the Dodgers’ familiarity and success against him, the matchup favors Los Angeles. The Dodgers have had significant success against Peterson in the past, and they are well-prepared to exploit his weaknesses.

Big Maple’s Dominance

The Dodgers have been successful in seven of Big Maple’s (James Paxton) starts this season, winning all seven games by at least two runs. Paxton’s ability to provide strong starts has been a key factor in these decisive victories, and his presence on the mound adds confidence to the Dodgers’ chances of covering the run line.

Mets’ Bullpen Woes

The Giants’ bullpen has been struggling, and with Peterson not fully stretched out yet, these issues are likely to surface again. The Dodgers can capitalize on these bullpen struggles, especially if they manage to get to Peterson early and force the Giants to rely on their relievers.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Ryan Pepiot over 15.5 outs @ +150 / Wager: 3%

Backing Pepiot to Go Deep Against Struggling A’s

Ryan Pepiot’s performance and the context of his previous outing suggest he has a solid chance to exceed 15.5 outs in his upcoming start against the Oakland Athletics. Betting on Pepiot to reach over 15.5 outs at +150 provides significant value given the situational factors and his potential workload.

Pepiot’s Previous Start

In his first start back from the IL, Pepiot threw 66 pitches, which was a conservative number given his recent return and limited preparation (only a 45-pitch bullpen session prior). Despite this, he showed promise by starting the 5th inning before being pulled after allowing three baserunners. The limited pitch count was more a precaution than an indicator of his capability to go deeper into games.

Managerial Confidence and Health

Manager Kevin Cash has expressed confidence in Pepiot, and the pitcher himself has stated that he feels great after his last start. This confidence from the coaching staff and Pepiot’s positive health status suggest that he will likely be stretched out more in his next outing, potentially reaching his normal workload.

Historical Performance

Prior to his injury, Pepiot topped the 15.5 outs mark in five of his six starts, demonstrating his ability to pitch deep into games. His arm being fine post-injury further supports the expectation that he can handle a normal workload, especially against a struggling A’s offense.

Athletics’ Offensive Struggles

The Oakland Athletics have been mediocre offensively, scoring more than three runs only once in their last six games. This weakness presents an opportunity for Pepiot to pitch deep into the game with less pressure from a potent opposing lineup.

MLB: Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Pick: Nationals ML @ +135 / Wager: 3%

Nationals Positioned to Upset Braves

The Washington Nationals have a strong opportunity to secure a win against the Atlanta Braves, particularly given the favorable pitching matchup and current form of both teams. Betting on the Nationals to win on the money line at +135 offers significant value based on these dynamics.

Braves’ Rookie Pitcher Making MLB Debut

The Braves are starting a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut, who has only 110 career innings in the minors and just two appearances above A ball. This lack of experience at the highest level is a vulnerability that the Nationals can exploit, especially given the Braves’ current struggles to string together quality at-bats.

Nationals’ Ace on the Mound

The Nationals have their ace on the mound, which provides them with a significant pitching advantage. This ace has the potential to dominate the Braves’ lineup, which has been scuffling recently. A strong performance from the Nationals’ starting pitcher can set the tone for the game and keep the Braves’ offense in check.

Spark from CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams has been providing a spark at the top of the Nationals’ lineup, contributing to their offensive efforts. His aggressive approach on the base paths adds another dimension to the Nationals’ offense, potentially putting additional pressure on the Braves’ rookie pitcher and defense. Abrams’ impact can be a key factor in the Nationals’ ability to generate runs and create scoring opportunities.

Braves’ Offensive Struggles

The Braves have not been consistent offensively, struggling to put together quality at-bats. This issue, combined with the inexperience of their starting pitcher, puts them at a disadvantage. The Nationals’ ability to take advantage of these weaknesses gives them a solid chance to pull off an upset.

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox

Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Fading the White Sox and Chris Flexen

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a strong position to secure a convincing win against the struggling Chicago White Sox, particularly given the poor form of their starter, Chris Flexen. Betting on the Blue Jays to cover the -1.5 run line offers significant value based on current dynamics and recent performance trends.

Chris Flexen’s Struggles

Chris Flexen has been a weak link for the White Sox this season. The team is 2-9 in his starts, and they have lost all nine of those games by at least two runs, with a combined run differential of 71-28. Flexen has failed to finish the fifth inning in three straight starts, posting a 5.69 ERA. His inability to provide quality starts puts additional strain on an already struggling White Sox team.

White Sox’s Offensive Woes

The White Sox have struggled to score runs, making it difficult for them to stay competitive in games. Their lack of offensive firepower is a significant disadvantage, especially against a Blue Jays team with a potent lineup. Chicago entered play on Tuesday as the second-worst run line team in MLB, highlighting their struggles to cover spreads and win convincingly.

Alek Manoah’s Recent Form

While Alek Manoah has not been spectacular this season, he has been serviceable lately and is capable of handling the White Sox lineup. Given Chicago’s offensive struggles, Manoah has a good chance to bully this lineup and keep the White Sox’s scoring to a minimum.

Blue Jays’ Offensive Potential

The Blue Jays have a lineup that can exploit Flexen’s weaknesses. With the possibility of fielding a lineup where seven of nine batters have homered off Flexen before, Toronto’s offense is well-positioned to put up runs and secure a comfortable win. The Blue Jays’ ability to generate offense against Flexen is a key factor in covering the -1.5 run line.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Cubs ML / Wager: 4%

Pick: Shota Imanaga over 6.5 total K’s / Wager: 3%

Cubs Positioned to Continue Success Behind Rookie Sensation Imanaga

The Chicago Cubs are in a favorable position to secure a victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, driven by the exceptional form of rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga. Betting on the Cubs to win on the money line and on Imanaga to exceed 6.5 strikeouts are strategic choices given the current dynamics and Imanaga’s recent performance.

Shota Imanaga’s Dominant Form

Shota Imanaga has been nothing short of sensational this season, boasting a 5-0 record with a 0.84 ERA. The Cubs have won eight of the nine games he has started, highlighting his impact on the team’s success. Imanaga has surrendered just five earned runs in his nine starts, showcasing his ability to control games effectively.

Brewers’ Struggles Against Left-Handed Pitching

The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled against left-handed pitchers, with a .661 OPS compared to .758 against right-handers. This weakness plays into Imanaga’s strength as a left-handed pitcher, giving him an edge in this matchup. The Brewers’ lack of potency against lefties increases the likelihood of Imanaga having another strong outing.

Cubs’ Momentum and Division Race

The Cubs snapped a five-game skid with a 10-inning win on Tuesday, and they are motivated to cut further into the division lead. With Imanaga on the mound, the Cubs have a solid chance to build on their recent win and gain momentum in the division race.

Milwaukee’s High Strikeout Rate

The Brewers strike out the seventh most per game, averaging more than one K per inning. This tendency to strike out frequently should help Imanaga reach or exceed 6.5 strikeouts, a mark he has hit in each of his last five starts. Given his ability to pitch deep into games—having gone seven innings in three of his last four starts—Imanaga is well-positioned to capitalize on the Brewers’ strikeout tendencies.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Royals -1.5 @ +160 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Bailey Ober under 5.5 K’s / Wager: 4%

Royals Positioned for a Convincing Win Against Struggling Ober

The Kansas City Royals are well-positioned to secure a decisive victory against the Minnesota Twins, particularly given the favorable pitching matchup and recent form. Betting on the Royals to cover the -1.5 run line and on Bailey Ober to fall short of 5.5 strikeouts provides significant value based on these dynamics.

Royals’ Success with Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo has been a consistent performer for the Royals, with the team winning eight of his last ten starts, all by at least two runs. Lugo has allowed more than two earned runs just once this season, indicating his reliability on the mound. The Royals tend to provide substantial run support when Lugo starts, which bodes well for their chances of a comfortable victory.

Bailey Ober’s Struggles Against Royals

Bailey Ober has had significant difficulties against the Royals throughout his career. He is 0-3 in eight career starts against Kansas City, with a 7.24 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. In those 32 1/3 innings, Ober has allowed 49 hits and seven home runs. Key Royals hitters have consistently performed well against him, which suggests another tough outing for Ober is likely.

Royals’ Recent Form and Offensive Prowess

The Royals have been impressive recently, especially on the run line where they entered Tuesday’s play with an MLB-best 35-20 record. Their lineup has been particularly effective against Ober, with a collective OPS of 1.074 and a low strikeout rate of 20%. In May, the Royals ranked in the bottom three for strikeout rate and the top three for OPS, demonstrating their offensive efficiency and ability to put the ball in play.

Fading Ober’s Strikeout Potential

Bailey Ober’s strikeout rate appears unsustainable given the current matchup. The Royals’ lineup has been tough to strike out, and their recent performance supports the likelihood of them continuing this trend. Ober’s history against Kansas City further supports betting on him to fall short of 5.5 strikeouts.

MLB: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Yankees -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Yankees Positioned for Dominant Win Against Angels

The New York Yankees are well-positioned to secure a convincing victory against the Los Angeles Angels, especially given the pitching matchup and the depth of their lineup. Betting on the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line provides substantial value based on the current dynamics and recent performance trends.

Luis Gil’s Dominance

Luis Gil has been virtually unhittable this season, showcasing elite stuff and velocity that can shut down any lineup. His performance on the mound gives the Yankees a significant advantage, as he is expected to limit the Angels’ offensive production effectively. Gil’s ability to dominate opposing hitters will be crucial in setting the tone for the game.

Yankees’ Offensive Depth

The Yankees boast a deep lineup capable of running up pitch counts and getting into the opposing bullpen early. This depth is a key factor in their success, as they can apply consistent pressure on pitchers like Anderson, who is starting for the Angels. The Yankees’ ability to work counts and capitalize on scoring opportunities will be essential in covering the run line.

Yankees’ Run Line Success

The Yankees have been successful in covering the run line, entering Tuesday with an 11-3 record ATS in their last 14 games. This trend indicates their propensity to win by multiple runs, making the -1.5 run line a favorable bet. Their consistent ability to cover the spread highlights their dominance and efficiency in securing decisive victories.

Angels’ Challenge

While the Angels have been competitive recently, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, facing the Yankees presents a different level of challenge. The Yankees’ combination of elite pitching from Gil and their potent offense will test the Angels’ pitching staff, likely exposing vulnerabilities that New York can exploit.

MLB: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Astros ML @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Astros Positioned for Victory Behind Verlander Against Strikeout-Prone Mariners

The Houston Astros have a favorable matchup against the Seattle Mariners, with Justin Verlander on the mound. Betting on the Astros to win on the money line at +100 offers significant value based on current dynamics and statistical trends.

Justin Verlander’s Advantage

Justin Verlander’s ability to induce soft contact will be further boosted by the pitcher-friendly environment of Seattle’s park. Verlander’s experience and skill set make him well-suited to exploit the Mariners’ weaknesses, particularly their high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Mariners’ Strikeout Issues

The Mariners have struggled significantly against right-handed pitchers, leading the league in strikeouts in this split. This tendency to strike out frequently puts them at a disadvantage against a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber. The Astros’ ace can capitalize on these strikeout issues, reducing the Mariners’ scoring opportunities and controlling the game’s pace.

Astros’ Statistical Edge

Our simulations indicate that the Astros have a 54 percent chance of winning this game, which implies a money line of -117. Given the current line at +100, there is clear value in backing the Astros, as the odds suggest they are slightly undervalued in this matchup.