Goodbye EPL, Hello Wins: BrownBagBets Shifts Focus to MLB and NHL Playoffs

Yesterday brought a minor setback, ending our winning streak at four straight days. The EPL season concluded with a bang, cementing our struggle to crack the code of its unpredictable nature. Our final record of 2-5 was a fitting end to a season-long challenge that has been more riddle than reward. While we bid farewell to the EPL and its complexities, we can now look forward to exciting new horizons with Copa America and Euros 2024 on the horizon.

In brighter news, our MLB plays continue to shine, securing yet another winning day and solidifying baseball as our strongest play. As we transition our focus, tonight’s lineup offers a full slate of MLB games and the thrilling anticipation of an NHL Game 7 between the Oilers and the Canucks.

Let’s harness the lessons learned and the momentum from our baseball successes to keep driving forward. The excitement of new opportunities and today’s promising matchups keep us optimistic and ready for more wins.

NHL Playoffs: Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks

Pick: Canucks ML @ +135

Wager: 4%

The Edmonton Oilers managed to force a decisive Game 7 with a convincing 5-1 victory on Saturday, thanks to a strong performance by goaltender Stuart Skinner. However, the series has largely been influenced by the strategic maneuvers of Canucks’ coach Rick Tocchet, who has effectively contained Connor McDavid for most of the series.

Coaching Strategy:

Rick Tocchet’s tactics have successfully slowed down Edmonton’s top line, and with the advantage of the last line change at home, he will likely continue to match JT Miller against McDavid’s line to disrupt their flow. Tocchet’s coaching has been pivotal in Vancouver’s ability to stay competitive in this series.

Goaltending:

The Canucks’ chances hinge on a bounce-back performance from goaltender Arturs Silovs, who had a rough outing on Saturday. Silovs has been reliable for most of the playoffs, and Vancouver will need him to be at his best to secure a win in Game 7.

Head-to-Head:

Vancouver holds a 7-3 record against Edmonton this season, showcasing their ability to consistently challenge the Oilers.

Conclusion:

Given the home-ice advantage, strategic coaching from Tocchet, and the Canucks’ favorable head-to-head record, backing Vancouver to win at +135 offers good value. Play Canucks on Money Line.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (Game 1)

Pick: Under 8.5

Wager: 6%

Context:

With a doubleheader set for Monday at Truist Field, the Braves are looking to make up games due to a rainout on Saturday. Both teams will be focused on efficient pitching and defense, particularly in the early game.

Pitching Advantage:

Dylan Cease has been stellar on the road for the Padres, boasting a 4-0 record with a 1.38 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. Reynaldo Lopez has similarly impressed for the Braves, maintaining a 1.34 ERA. Both pitchers have demonstrated the ability to keep hitters in check, with Cease limiting them to a .137 average and Lopez holding hitters to a .196 average.

Offensive Struggles:

The Braves have struggled to score recently, managing only three runs across their last three games, all of which resulted in losses. This trend suggests a continued difficulty in generating offense, particularly in the first game of a doubleheader.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Taj Bradley over 15.5 Outs @ +102

Wager: 4%

Taj Bradley faced the Red Sox in his last outing at Fenway, where an unfortunate misplay at shortstop extended his 5th inning, preventing him from starting the 6th. Despite this, Bradley pitched well against Boston and now returns to his home turf in Tampa, where he has been more comfortable.

Pitching Analysis:

Bradley has shown the ability to handle the Red Sox lineup, and the familiarity from the recent outing should play to his advantage. The primary concern is the back-to-back starts against the same team, but Bradley’s overall performance suggests he can navigate through the Boston lineup effectively once again.

Home Advantage:

Pitching at home in Tampa provides a more controlled environment for Bradley, which should help mitigate any issues from facing the same lineup in consecutive starts.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees ML

Wager: 5%

Game Context:

Logan Gilbert has shown decent performance for Seattle, particularly benefiting from the friendly pitching environment at home. However, Gilbert’s road splits indicate that he is closer to a league-average pitcher when away from Seattle, rather than elite.

Pitching Matchup:

Marcus Stroman is expected to keep the ball on the ground effectively and could potentially pick up additional strikeouts against a Mariners lineup that strikes out the most in the league against right-handed pitching. This matchup should favor Stroman and the Yankees.

Simulation Insights:

We have the Yankees winning 59 percent of simulations, suggesting that this line offers great value. The Yankees have a strong chance to capitalize on Gilbert’s vulnerability away from home and Stroman’s ground ball efficiency.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Pick: Tigers ML

Wager: 5%

Game Context:

The Detroit Tigers face the Kansas City Royals in a matchup that looks promising for the Tigers, especially considering recent performances and specific pitcher weaknesses.

Royals’ Pitching Woes:

Michael Wacha has become a weak link in the Royals’ rotation, with the league hitting over .400 against his fastball and slugging .630 against it. In a previous matchup, the Tigers got him into fastball counts and blasted him for 9 hits and 4 ER in 5 2/3 innings. Wacha’s reliance on his changeup is becoming problematic, making him vulnerable to hitters who can force him into fastball counts.

Tigers’ Pitching Efficiency:

Reese Olson, while not a standout pitcher, is known for his efficiency and control, not walking many batters. His ability to limit free passes should help the Tigers manage the Royals’ offense effectively. Additionally, the Tigers have shown a knack for winning low-scoring games, similar to the Royals.

Recent History:

The Tigers took 2 of 3 from the Royals last month, and their back end bullpen is preferable in close games. Given Wacha’s struggles and Olson’s efficiency, Detroit looks poised to capitalize on this matchup.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Orioles ML

Wager: 5%

The Baltimore Orioles face the St. Louis Cardinals in a matchup where the Orioles appear to have several advantages, particularly in offensive capabilities and pitching trust.

Cardinals’ Struggles:

While Sonny Gray is having a standout season for the Cardinals, the team’s overall hitting struggles continue to be a significant issue. With their best player, Willson Contreras, on the IL, the Cardinals’ offense is weakened further. St. Louis has struggled mightily against strong competition, holding a 4-13 record against teams above .500, indicating they are outmatched in higher-stakes games.

Orioles’ Offensive Edge:

The Orioles’ left-handed bats, such as Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, and Adley Rutschman, are well-suited to exploit the gaps in St. Louis’s ballpark. Baltimore’s ability to generate runs and take advantage of opposing pitchers’ mistakes gives them a substantial edge.

Kremer’s Confidence:

Dean Kremer has shown increased confidence and effectiveness, now trusting all five of his pitches. This expanded arsenal should help him manage the Cardinals’ lineup, which has been inconsistent and struggling to produce runs.

Road Performance:

The Orioles have been one of the best road teams in MLB over the last two years, showcasing their ability to perform well away from home. Their resilience and consistent play on the road further support their chances in this matchup.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -1.5 @ +105

Wager: 5%

Game Context:

The Houston Astros are gaining momentum and appear well-positioned for another successful series, particularly against the struggling Los Angeles Angels.

Astros’ Surge:

Houston is on a roll, winning nine of their last eleven games and outscoring opponents by 2 or more runs in seven of those victories. This impressive run has revitalized their push in the standings, and they look to continue this trend against the Angels.

Detmers’ Struggles:

Reid Detmers of the Angels is having a rough stretch, with his last five starts resulting in losses for LAA by a combined margin of 39-18. In this span, Detmers has allowed 26 earned runs over 27 2/3 innings, highlighting his vulnerability. The Astros lineup has found success against him, with key hitters like Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Kyle Tucker performing well in previous encounters.

Valdez’s Form:

Framber Valdez is in good form for the Astros, providing a reliable presence on the mound. His consistency and effectiveness add a significant advantage for Houston in this matchup, especially given the current form of Detmers.