Bouncing Back: BrownBagBets Navigates a Challenging Night

Yesterday wasn’t the best day for BrownBagBets, finishing with a 3-4 record. However, our -1.5 play on the Panthers in the Stanley Cup helped mitigate the overall losses, demonstrating the importance of strategic betting even on tough nights.

As we look to today, we’re excited about Game 2 of the NBA Finals, which promises to be a thrilling matchup. Additionally, we have a big Sunday of baseball lined up, offering numerous opportunities to turn the tide and get back on the winning track.

Let’s leverage our strategic insights and focus on making today a success. With BrownBagBets, every day is a chance to bounce back and aim for consistent victories.

NBA Finals (Game 2): Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics

Pick: Mavericks +7 / Wager: 5%

Pick: Over 214.5 / Wager: 6%

Pick: Jrue Holiday over 10.5 Rebs + Assts / Wager: 6%

Pick: Kyrie Irving over 22.5 Points / Wager: 5%

Pick: Al Horford under 15.5 Pts + Rebs / Wager: 6%

Pick: Al Horford under 17.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts / Wager: 4%

Game Overview and Analysis

Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off at 8 p.m. ET from TD Garden on Sunday. The Boston Celtics took Game 1 over the Dallas Mavericks in dominant fashion on Thursday and will have a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead with a win on Sunday.

As a Luka Dončić MVP backer, Game 1 of the Finals was not great. The Mavericks seemed lost on defense, having no answer for Kristaps Porziņģis and frequently leaving shooters open without walling off the paint. They essentially did nothing they wanted to do; they couldn’t prevent the Celtics from getting quality looks from 3s, and then they went away from their centers and had little rim protection. It was even worse on the offensive end, where they got no assists, couldn’t hit a 3, and passed up open opportunities.

Mavericks’ Adjustments Needed

In case this sounds familiar, this is exactly how Game 1 for Boston went against Miami and Cleveland. For the Mavs, they lost Game 1 of both the Clippers and Thunder series on the road with horrific offensive performances and a defense that took almost nothing away. In all four of these cases, when Game 2 came around, Boston lost and Dallas won.

It may not seem like it, but there is a lot for the Mavs to clean up. Dereck Lively II had five fouls and started to play timid; he hasn’t had five fouls in three months. Dončić held the ball for too long, turned it over in ways I haven’t seen him do before, and didn’t really create advantages against the myriad defenders who were on him. Dallas shot 24% from 3s, its worst shooting performance of the entire playoffs, and while some were contested, others were not. Boston has a history of making lazy contests on 3-pointers at times, and this could be an instance where it swings wildly back in their favor.

Game Prediction

Going into this series, the game I felt most confident Dallas would win was Game 2. The Mavericks were down by 17 points after the first quarter of Game 1. They whittled the lead down to eight points at one time in the game but ultimately fell by 18 points. They shot 41.7% from the field, 25.9% from three, and 63.2% at the charity stripe. The Celtics are a very good defensive team, but I don’t expect the Mavericks to be that inefficient again. Look for them to make enough adjustments for Game 2 to help them cover the spread.

Player Props and Game Total

Jrue Holiday over 10.5 Rebs + Assts

Jrue Holiday was terrific in Game 1, especially on the defensive end. While he scored a modest 12 points, he also chipped in eight rebounds and five assists. With that performance, he has finished with at least 11 combined rebounds and assists in seven of his last eight games. He posted 13 combined rebounds and assists the first time these two teams met during the regular season. He only played 27 minutes the second time because of the lopsided score but still finished with nine combined. With the expectation that he plays at least 35 minutes on Sunday, the over is the way to go.

Kyrie Irving over 22.5 Points

We believe the whole thing comes down to Kyrie Irving shooting poorly and looking disheveled, shooting 6 for 19 from the field and 0 for 5 from three-point range, scoring just 12 points. If Kyrie shoots better, the Mavericks would have won Game 1 or at least competed better and not been down by 17 points the whole game. Others follow his lead. Kyrie has had two whole days to beat down on himself, and he’ll be better for Game 2. He’ll be the reason the Mavericks show better.

Al Horford under 15.5 Pts + Rebs / under 17.5 Pts + Rebs + Assts

Al Horford played 30+ minutes, and Porziņģis played 20 minutes in Game 1. That will flip in Game 2. Yet, the Horford number is not anticipating a drop in minutes, so let’s jump on this now.

Conclusion

The Mavericks are expected to rebound in Game 2 after a lackluster performance in Game 1. With adjustments on both ends of the court, a better shooting night for Kyrie Irving, and continued strong play from Jrue Holiday, the Mavs have a good chance to cover the spread and push the game total over 214.5. Additionally, betting on Al Horford’s unders in points and rebounds categories presents value given the anticipated adjustments.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Pick: Braves -1.5 / Wager: 5%

The Atlanta Braves aim to close out their series against the Washington Nationals with a decisive victory. The Braves have a significant advantage in the pitching matchup and offensive firepower, making them strong candidates to cover the -1.5 run line.

Team Analysis

Atlanta Braves

Pitching: Max Fried takes the mound for the Braves, bringing his formidable left-handed arsenal. Fried has been excellent this season, especially against teams struggling against left-handed pitching. He last faced the Nationals, where he dominated by pitching eight scoreless innings, allowing just seven hits and one walk.

Offense: The Braves’ lineup is potent and balanced, capable of putting up runs in bunches. With power hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies, they can quickly change the game’s complexion.

Recent Performance: Atlanta is 9-3 when Fried starts, and they have shown a tendency to win by multiple runs, with seven of those nine wins coming by two runs or more.

Washington Nationals

Pitching: The Nationals are sending a rookie to the mound for his second MLB start. His debut was less than impressive, lasting only four innings and giving up four earned runs. Facing a powerful Braves lineup in just his second start is a daunting task.

Offense: Washington ranks 27th in OPS (.615) and 29th in SLG (.324) against left-handed pitching. Their lineup lacks the depth and consistency to challenge elite pitchers like Fried consistently.

Recent Performance: The Nationals have shown some fight in this series but face a tough challenge against a top-tier pitcher. Their record against quality opponents has not been strong, and their offensive struggles against lefties are well-documented.

Game Factors

Pitching Matchup

Max Fried is a dominant force, particularly against weaker offensive teams like the Nationals. His ability to go deep into games and limit baserunners gives the Braves a considerable edge.

Offensive Disparity

The Braves have one of the most potent offenses in MLB, capable of overwhelming young and inexperienced pitchers. The Nationals’ rookie starter is likely to struggle against this formidable lineup.

Home Field Advantage

While the Nationals are at home, their overall performance against top-tier teams has been lacking. The Braves have the momentum and confidence, having already shown they can handle the Nationals’ lineup effectively.

Betting Analysis

Braves -1.5: Given the advantages in both pitching and offense, the Braves are well-positioned to win this game by more than one run. The recent performance of Max Fried and the struggles of the Nationals’ rookie pitcher further solidify this pick.

Confidence: The Braves have consistently covered the -1.5 spread in games started by Fried, and this trend is likely to continue given the mismatch on the mound and at the plate.

MLB: Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Pirates ML / Wager: 5%

Pick: Bailey Ober over 5.5 K’s / Wager: 5%

Pick: Bailey Ober under 2.5 earned runs / Wager: 5%

Team Analysis

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching: Quinn Priester is on the mound for the Pirates, bringing his impressive home statistics into this matchup. Priester has a 1.95 ERA at PNC Park with a WHIP of just 1 and a batting average allowed of .200. His performance at home has been stellar, contributing significantly to the Pirates’ recent success.

Offense: The Pirates have been playing excellent ball at home, winning series against both the Dodgers and the Braves. Their offense has been more productive at PNC Park, which could pose a challenge for Bailey Ober.

Recent Performance: Pittsburgh has momentum, having won key series against top teams, which bodes well for their confidence and performance in this game.

Minnesota Twins

Pitching: Bailey Ober has been inconsistent, especially on the road. His 5.50 ERA away from home suggests vulnerability, particularly in smaller ballparks like PNC Park. However, he has the potential to rack up strikeouts against a Pirates team that struggles with Ks, averaging 9.63 strikeouts per game, which is the fourth-worst in the league.

Offense: The Twins’ offense has yet to score in this series, indicating struggles at the plate. This lack of run production could continue to hamper their chances, especially against a solid home pitcher like Quinn Priester.

Recent Performance: The Twins have been struggling offensively, particularly in this series against the Pirates, and this trend might persist.

Game Factors

Pitching Matchup

Bailey Ober: Despite his struggles on the road, Ober has the ability to strike out hitters. The Pirates’ high strikeout rate makes the Over 5.5 Ks a strong pick. Conversely, his ability to limit earned runs against a struggling offense also makes the Under 2.5 earned runs appealing.

Quinn Priester: His home performance has been excellent, which makes the Pirates ML a strong play. Priester’s ability to keep hitters at bay at PNC Park is a key factor in this bet.

Offensive Disparity

The Pirates’ offense has shown the ability to perform at home, while the Twins’ offense has struggled, especially in this series. This disparity in run production further supports the Pirates ML pick.

Home Field Advantage

The Pirates’ recent success at home, including series wins against top teams, suggests a strong home-field advantage. This factor plays heavily into the Pirates’ favor for this game.

Betting Analysis

Pirates ML: Given the pitching edge at home and the offensive struggles of the Twins, the Pirates are well-positioned to win this game. The strong home statistics for Quinn Priester further solidify this pick.

Bailey Ober over 5.5 K’s: The Pirates’ high strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers makes this a strong play. Ober’s ability to strike out hitters should be on full display in this matchup.

Bailey Ober under 2.5 earned runs: Given the Twins’ offensive struggles and Ober’s ability to limit runs against weaker offenses, this is a favorable pick.

MLB: Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins

Pick: Guardians ML / Wager: 7%

Team Analysis

Cleveland Guardians

Pitching: Carlos Carrasco, despite his 5.66 ERA, has the potential to provide five or more innings of serviceable work. He has shown flashes of effectiveness throughout the season and can take advantage of a struggling Marlins offense.

Offense: The Guardians have been relatively consistent in their offensive production. Their ability to manufacture runs and put pressure on opposing pitchers has been a strength. They are positioned well against a Miami team that has been struggling at the plate.

Recent Performance: Cleveland’s overall performance this season has been significantly better than Miami’s, which is reflected in their standing.

Miami Marlins

Pitching: Trevor Rogers has had a difficult season, holding a 1-7 record with a 5.68 ERA. His struggles have been a significant factor in the Marlins’ woes. Rogers has struggled to keep runners off the bases and has been prone to giving up big innings.

Offense: Miami’s offense has been stagnant, being shut out seven times this season, including three times in the last six games. Their inability to generate runs consistently puts them at a disadvantage against almost any opponent.

Recent Performance: The Marlins are currently in a slump, with their lack of offensive production being a major concern. Their recent performance highlights significant struggles that are unlikely to be resolved quickly.

Game Factors

Pitching Matchup

Carlos Carrasco: While not dominant, Carrasco can be effective enough to keep the Guardians in the game against a weak Marlins lineup. His experience and occasional flashes of brilliance provide some level of confidence.

Trevor Rogers: Rogers’ continued struggles on the mound make it hard to back the Marlins. His high ERA and lack of wins suggest a significant disadvantage against a capable Guardians lineup.

Offensive Disparity

Cleveland’s offense has shown the ability to produce runs consistently, while Miami’s offense has been almost non-existent in recent games. This stark contrast is a key factor in favor of the Guardians.

Team Form

Guardians: Entering the game with better overall form and more consistent performances. Cleveland’s ability to perform well both offensively and defensively makes them a stronger pick.

Marlins: Struggling significantly with both pitching and hitting, the Marlins’ current form does not inspire confidence.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 5%

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

Pitching: Grayson Rodriguez has been outstanding on the road with a 3-1 record and a 2.12 ERA. His ability to perform under pressure away from home gives the Orioles a significant advantage, especially against a struggling Rays lineup.

Offense: The Orioles’ offense ranks fifth in OPS against right-handed pitchers (.741). Their consistent ability to produce runs against right-handers will be crucial in this matchup. Last Sunday, Baltimore managed 11 hits against Zack Littell, showcasing their offensive capability.

Recent Performance: Baltimore has been strong against AL East opponents, boasting a 15-6 record. Their overall form and confidence against divisional rivals add to their appeal in this game.

Tampa Bay Rays

Pitching: Zack Littell, despite the Rays’ win last Sunday, allowed 11 hits to the Orioles. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has struggled recently, and Littell’s performance against Baltimore’s potent offense remains a concern.

Offense: The Rays’ lineup has been slumping, ranking 28th in OPS against right-handed pitching (.647). Their inability to generate runs consistently against right-handers puts them at a disadvantage against Grayson Rodriguez.

Recent Performance: The Rays have been in a downward spiral, struggling to find their form. Their offensive woes and inconsistent pitching have contributed to their recent struggles.

Game Factors

Pitching Matchup

Grayson Rodriguez: Rodriguez’s road performance has been stellar, and his low ERA on the road gives the Orioles a solid foundation. His ability to limit runs will be key against a struggling Rays lineup.

Zack Littell: Littell’s last outing against Baltimore saw him giving up 11 hits. While the Rays managed to win that game, his performance was far from dominant, and he remains vulnerable against a strong Orioles offense.

Offensive Disparity

Baltimore’s offense has been significantly better against right-handed pitching compared to Tampa Bay’s lineup. The Orioles’ ability to produce runs and their fifth-ranked OPS against right-handers provide a clear edge.

Team Form

Orioles: Baltimore’s strong record against AL East teams and their overall consistent performances make them a formidable opponent. Their recent form suggests they are well-prepared to take on the Rays.

Rays: Tampa Bay’s recent struggles, both offensively and on the mound, make it difficult to back them with confidence. Their slump against right-handed pitching further tilts the scales in favor of the Orioles.

MLB: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases @ +120 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 K’s @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Player Analysis: Yordan Alvarez

Recent Performance:

Alvarez is batting .397 with a 1.202 OPS over the past few weeks, indicating he’s in excellent form.

Historically, Alvarez has exhibited reverse splits, performing better against left-handed pitchers. This season, he’s maintained a .337 average with a .916 OPS against lefties.

Matchup:

Against Patrick Sandoval: Alvarez has seen success against Sandoval in recent matchups. Sandoval struggled against the Astros last season, giving up nine runs on 14 hits in 9.2 innings over two starts.

Overall: Given Alvarez’s ability to hit left-handed pitchers effectively and his current hot streak, the over 1.5 total bases bet offers value. Even if the Angels decide to pitch around him, Alvarez’s aggressive hitting and power can help him achieve this mark with a couple of well-placed hits.

Player Analysis: Patrick Sandoval

Recent Performance:

Sandoval has been delivering solid starts but has failed to reach five strikeouts in five of his 13 starts this season.

His strikeout rate, while decent at 9.6 K 9, is not overwhelmingly high for a team like the Astros, who excel at avoiding strikeouts.

Matchup:

Against the Astros: Houston has the best strikeout rate per game in the league, particularly excelling against left-handed pitchers with a 15.7% strikeout rate in plate appearances.

Historical Data: Out of 19 lefty starts against the Astros this season, only six have managed to reach five strikeouts. This further emphasizes the difficulty left-handed pitchers face in striking out the Houston lineup.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees ML @ +110 / Wager: 6%

Current Series Context:

The Yankees had a strong winning streak of eight games but have lost the first two games of this series against the Dodgers . The Yankees’ offense has struggled, scoring only three runs over 21 innings in the first two games of the series.

Pitching Matchup:

Luis Gil (Yankees): Gil has been a standout performer this season, boasting an 8-1 record and a 1.82 ERA. He has won his last seven starts, allowing only three earned runs across those games. Gil’s ability to limit hits (more than three hits allowed in only two of 12 starts) has been key to his success.

Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers): Glasnow, despite his talent, has seen the Dodgers lose in four of his last five starts. While he remains a formidable pitcher, the Dodgers’ offense has not been able to consistently support him.

Team Performance:

Yankees: The Yankees have a better OPS against right-handed pitching compared to the Dodgers. Historically, the Yankees have been strong at home, and being rare home underdogs provides significant betting value. With the pitching advantage leaning towards Luis Gil, the Yankees are in a good position to leverage his dominant form to secure a win.

Dodgers: The Dodgers have shown some inconsistency, particularly with Glasnow on the mound recently.

Despite their powerful lineup, they haven’t performed at their best in the last few games against quality pitching.

Betting Rationale

Luis Gil’s Dominance:

Gil’s impressive statistics, including his low ERA and consistent wins, make him a strong candidate to lead the Yankees to victory.

His ability to control games and limit opposing offenses gives the Yankees a significant edge, especially at home.

Dodgers’ Recent Struggles:

The Dodgers’ recent performance, particularly in games started by Glasnow, highlights potential vulnerabilities that the Yankees can exploit.

With the Dodgers’ offense not firing on all cylinders, there is an opportunity for the Yankees to capitalize.

Yankees’ Home Advantage:

Betting on the Yankees as home underdogs offers value, especially considering their strong home record and overall form when Gil is on the mound.