Back-to-Back Wins: BrownBagBets Achieves a 5% Gain Overnight

It’s another victorious night here at BrownBagBets with back-to-back wins, securing a 5% gain after a solid 7-5 performance. Our carefully selected 3% plays delivered, creating overnight gains while our MLB picks continued to shine at the start of May, going 3-1 yesterday.

Today’s slate promises another day of excitement as we aim to keep the winning streak alive. A full day of MLB is complemented by a Champions League semifinal clash between Borussia Dortmund and PSG as the former seeks to book a spot in the final. Adding to the mix, the NBA conference semifinals and NHL matchups are set to deliver thrilling sports drama.

A jam-packed night of sports ensures a fantastic time at BrownBagBets, where our strategic approach will continue to uncover opportunities and drive more gains.

Champions League Semifinal: Borussia Dortmund at Paris Saint-Germain (PSG)

Pick: PSG -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 2%

First-Leg Recap: In the first leg held in Germany, Dortmund secured a 1-0 victory over PSG thanks to a Niclas Füllkrug goal. PSG mounted pressure in the second half but was unable to find an equalizer despite hitting the post twice.

PSG’s Recent Form: PSG wrapped up the Ligue 1 title, giving them the luxury to focus solely on this match. They’ve been prolific at home, scoring 41 goals in 16 Ligue 1 matches and 10 goals in five home Champions League games this season.

Dortmund’s Away Record: Despite Dortmund’s impressive away form in the Bundesliga and Champions League group stage, they struggled against PSG at the Parc des Princes and other strong opponents like Atlético Madrid. They’ve only managed to keep one clean sheet in five Champions League away games.

PSG’s Offensive Power: PSG has a roster brimming with attacking talent like Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Randal Kolo Muani. They should be able to breach Dortmund’s defense with their speed and creativity.

Conclusion:

With PSG needing to overcome a one-goal deficit, the match will likely be more open. Dortmund will be dangerous on the counterattack but may struggle to contain PSG’s offense for a full 90 minutes. Expect PSG to overturn the deficit and win by at least two goals.

NBA Playoffs: Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Pick: Over 208 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Celtics -11 / Wager: 3%

Celtics Dominance: The Celtics have established themselves as the clear frontrunners in the East. They thrive on building early leads at home, often crushing opponents in the first quarter. With a refreshed roster following a long layoff, Boston should overwhelm the Cavs, who are coming off a Game 7 on Sunday.

Cavs’ Inconsistency: Cleveland’s performance in the first round highlighted their unpredictability. They will struggle if forced to play from behind and may miss their defensive anchor, Jarrett Allen. The Cavs’ weaknesses could leave them vulnerable to the Celtics’ relentless offensive push.

Recent Home Record: Boston has won 14 of their last 15 home games, with 11 victories by margins of 15+ points, and an average margin of 22.1. Their energy and freshness give them a significant edge over the potentially fatigued Cavaliers.

Series Scoring: All regular-season games between these teams surpassed the 207.5 mark set for this matchup. Boston’s offensive pace was strong against Miami in the first round, averaging 110 ppg. They showed their offensive firepower despite a slow Game 2 and pulling back in Game 5 when leading by 32 points into the fourth quarter.

NBA Playoffs: Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Over 218 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Kyrie Irving over 9.5 Rebs + Assts / Wager: 2%

Game Analysis:

Over 218: Despite a relatively modest offensive showing from both teams in the first round, their regular-season matchups frequently soared above the 218-point mark, with all four encounters exceeding 221 points and three surpassing 245. Defensive play was often absent, resulting in lopsided scorelines such as 146-111 (Dallas) and 135-86 (OKC). With Luka Doncic averaging 34 ppg against OKC this season and the Thunder finding ways to score against Dallas, even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fully on target, the scoring potential remains high.

Kyrie Irving Rebounds + Assists: Though Kyrie Irving is renowned for his scoring, he has proven his all-around impact by averaging 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, he has consistently recorded over 10 rebounds + assists in five out of six games. His playoff minutes increase his productivity, and he surpassed 14 combined rebounds and assists in both of the regular-season games against OKC. The favorable matchup and heightened minutes make this over a strong play.

NHL Playoffs: Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers

Pick: Rangers ML @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Rangers Moneyline: Despite winning Game 1 and entering the postseason as the Metropolitan Division champions, the Rangers continue to be underestimated by the odds makers, as they're listed as slight underdogs in Game 2. In contrast, Carolina's goaltender Frederik Andersen has shown signs of struggle, saving only 72 of 82 shots in his last three games after a solid run earlier in the season. The Rangers' offense has thrived under Peter Laviolette, with ten different players finding the back of the net during the playoffs.

Key Performances: Igor Shesterkin is in great form, becoming the third goalie in Rangers history to win his team's first five postseason games. Meanwhile, Mika Zibanejad is on fire, securing multi-point games in his last four appearances. These strong performances underline why the Rangers should be trusted as a good value pick for Game 2.

Conclusion:

The Rangers' offense has been versatile, Shesterkin is on a roll, and Zibanejad continues to shine. As Andersen struggles in goal for the Hurricanes, New York has the edge to claim Game 2 on their home ice and should capitalize on the favorable odds.

NHL Playoffs: Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

Pick: Over 6 / Wager: 2%

Scoring Trends: This series is unlikely to mirror the low-scoring pace of Dallas’ opening round against the Vegas Golden Knights. In contrast, Colorado’s offense has been unstoppable, scoring five or more goals in each game during their first-round sweep of Winnipeg. Twelve different Avalanche players contributed to their goal tally in that series, highlighting their versatile offensive capabilities.

Head-to-Head Performance: All of the Avs’ games against the Jets went “over,” and so did each of their regular-season matchups against the Stars. Given the offensive momentum of Colorado and Dallas’ ability to produce goals, expect this to be a high-scoring game.

Conclusion:

With the Avs’ relentless offense and Dallas’ ability to match up, this game should see a flurry of goals. It’s safe to expect an open, fast-paced encounter in Dallas tonight, and taking the over on 6 goals provides solid value.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Logan Allen over 15.5 Outs / Wager: 2%

Matchup Advantage: Logan Allen is set to face a Detroit Tigers lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching, evidenced by their .645 OPS against southpaws. The Tigers are also not a disciplined team at the plate, drawing relatively few walks, which could allow Allen to navigate deeper into the game.

Allen’s Performance: Despite not having eye-popping raw numbers, Allen has been consistent, pitching at least 5.1 innings in four of his last six starts. This shows his ability to pitch efficiently and accumulate outs against teams that don’t threaten offensively.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals

Pick: Nationals +1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Identifying Value in the Pick:

In sports betting, finding value means identifying scenarios where the potential payout outweighs the associated risk. In this matchup, the Nationals at +1.5 provide value due to several factors:

Pitching Matchup: Trevor Williams has been a consistent performer for the Nationals, posting an ERA better than Baltimore’s ace Corbin Burnes. Despite not being a top-tier starter by reputation, Williams has managed to limit opponents to fewer than two earned runs in all but one of his starts. This level of consistency suggests the Nationals can remain competitive, especially at home.

Rivalry Game Motivation: In regional rivalry games like this, teams often play with added intensity, narrowing the gap between favorites and underdogs. The Nationals will be eager to perform well at home, increasing the likelihood of a close game.

Plus-Money Odds: Getting +1.5 runs at +105 means that not only do we have a cushion in case of a one-run loss, but we are also receiving positive odds for it. This means the payout is greater than our original stake, making the wager enticing from a value standpoint.

Close Game Likelihood: Given Williams’ reliable pitching and the rivalry game dynamics, the Nationals are expected to keep the game competitive, making this +1.5 run line wager an excellent value play.

Conclusion:

The Nationals, with Williams on the mound and the extra motivation of a rivalry game, can keep this close or win outright. Taking the +1.5 run line at plus odds is a strategic value bet, giving us a favorable payout for a higher probability scenario.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Rays -1.5 / Wager: 3%

Rays’ Momentum: The Rays are riding a strong wave of momentum with four straight wins on this homestand, improving their overall record back to .500. They seem to have found their groove, especially after last night’s 8-2 victory against the White Sox, where Jonny DeLuca collected four RBIs, bringing his recent tally to 10 in the last four games.

Pitching Matchup:

Zach Eflin will take the mound for Tampa Bay, providing the Rays with a reliable starter who boasts a solid ERA and strong strikeout numbers, despite not always getting enough run support. He’ll be facing a White Sox lineup that continues to struggle on the road, as evidenced by their dismal 3-15 away record.

Michael Soroka will start for the White Sox, but with a 6.48 ERA, he’s been unable to consistently deliver quality starts. His control issues have contributed to high walk rates and he often fails to go beyond four innings, leaving Chicago’s bullpen overexposed.

Home Field Advantage: The Trop has proven to be a fortress for the Rays, especially with their City Connect ensemble giving them an extra boost in spirit and performance. Chicago’s poor road record and inconsistent pitching will likely be their undoing again in this matchup.

Conclusion:

The Rays have the starting pitching advantage with Eflin and a lineup firing on all cylinders, particularly Jonny DeLuca. Soroka’s high ERA and short outings put additional strain on a White Sox bullpen already struggling on the road. This makes the Rays on the run line (-1.5) a strong play here.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves

Pick: Braves -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 2%

Value Analysis: We see value in the Braves’ moneyline, but with the current -175 price tag, it’s not worth taking directly. Instead, we prefer the +120 odds on the -1.5 run line for a higher potential payout.

Braves’ Sense of Urgency: Atlanta is looking to rebound after a rough road trip where they went 1-5, including a sweep by the Dodgers. This home game presents an opportunity to reset and get back on track.

Pitching Matchup:

Boston’s Kutter Crawford has been in excellent form, but his performance might be due for a regression soon given the law of averages.

Reynaldo Lopez, starting for Atlanta, has found his stride after leaving the White Sox, and his improvement gives the Braves an advantage on the mound.

Conclusion:

Atlanta needs to re-establish their dominance at home, and Lopez’s form should help them accomplish this. With the Braves highly motivated after recent losses and their lineup eager to back up Lopez, the Braves at -1.5 (+120) provides good value here.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Cubs -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 2%

Imanaga’s Form: Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has dominated the National League, showcasing excellent command and effectiveness that has left opposing batters guessing. In six starts, Imanaga has given up only three earned runs, and the Cubs have won five of those games by three or more runs, outscoring opponents 30-6.

Padres’ Struggles: The Padres’ lineup has been struggling against left-handed pitching, ranking 21st in OPS and 25th in on-base percentage. Their young starter should ideally be pitching in the bullpen, lacking the depth to effectively challenge the Cubs’ potent offense.

Cubs’ Support and Confidence:

With the Cubs playing at home and the crowd behind them, Imanaga is in a favorable position to continue his streak of strong starts. Chicago’s dominance in games he’s pitched shows a clear pattern of success, which is likely to continue against this inconsistent Padres lineup.

Conclusion:

The Cubs’ solid form behind Imanaga and the Padres’ difficulties against lefties make this a strong play. With the Cubs at -1.5 (+135), this pick provides great value for a convincing home win.