Back in Action: Big Basketball Slate & Champions League Preview

Back in Action – Shaking Off the Norovirus:
We’ve been silent for the past few days—no picks, no posts. The norovirus hit our writer’s room and analysis team hard, taking us out of action longer than we’d have liked. Currently, we sit at 91% of our January starting bankroll, and let’s be honest, losing three days of betting wasn’t ideal. But setbacks like this are part of the grind, and today, we’re back, refocused, and ready to make these last few days of January count.

Today’s Slate – Packed with Opportunity:
After a brief hiatus, today’s slate gives us plenty of action to dive into:

• College Basketball:

  • A big day of conference play, with matchups in the ACC, MAC, Big Ten, Mountain West, and more.

• NBA Action:

  • Four marquee games to target, including:

    • Lakers at Sixers

    • Rockets at Hawks

    • Jazz at Warriors

    • Bucks at Blazers

• NHL Plays:

  • A handful of matchups on the ice provide additional opportunities to round out the day.

Looking Ahead – Champions League Madness:
While today is loaded, let’s not overlook the historic day coming tomorrow. For the first time ever, all 36 teams in the Champions League will play on the same day as Europe’s top competition completes its group stage:

• What’s at Stake:

  • The top 8 teams will advance directly to the Round of 16.

  • Teams ranked 9-24 will fight in a two-leg playoff for their Round of 16 spot.

  • Teams ranked 25-36 will be eliminated with no path to the Europa League.

With Liverpool and Barcelona already locked in, the stakes couldn’t be higher for everyone else. It’s going to be an exciting day for Champions League bettors.

Final Thought – Time to Finish Strong:
We’re back and ready to hit the board hard. While this month hasn’t gone exactly as planned, today is a fresh start, and with college basketball, NBA, NHL, and tomorrow’s Champions League, there’s no better time to make a strong push.

Let’s stay disciplined, trust the process, and finish January with focus and confidence. We’re back, and we’re ready to crush it. Let’s go!

NCAAB: Western Michigan at Ball State

Pick: Ball State ML / Wager: 3%

Betting Indicators Supporting This Pick:

Shooting Efficiency and Free Throw Advantage:

• Ball State ranks second in the MAC in field goal percentage, shooting an impressive 50.8% in conference play.

• The Cardinals lead the MAC in free throw attempts per game (26.5) and free throws made per game (18.2), a key edge for a home team.

Defensive Prowess:

• Ball State is 7-0 this season when holding opponents under 70 points, showcasing their ability to control games defensively.

• Western Michigan is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring just 52 points in a loss to rival Central Michigan on Saturday.

Home Court Dynamics:

• Home teams tend to get more favorable officiating, and Ball State’s aggressive style, particularly in drawing fouls, should benefit them at the line in this matchup.

Expert Call:

Ball State’s superior shooting and ability to capitalize on free throw opportunities make them a strong play here. Western Michigan’s recent offensive struggles and Ball State’s defensive consistency further solidify the Cardinals’ chances to win at home.

Projection:

• Final Score: Ball State 74, Western Michigan 66

NCAAB: Kentucky at Tennessee

Pick: Tennessee -8.5 / Wager: 3%

Betting Indicators Supporting This Pick:

Kentucky’s Injury Concerns:

• Key forward Andrew Carr, who missed the Wildcats’ loss at Vanderbilt, remains questionable for this game.

• Guard Kerr Kriisa has been sidelined for a while, and now Lamont Butler, Kentucky’s top two-way player and a defensive standout, is also ruled out.

• These absences leave Kentucky relying on inexperienced players who were not expected to take on significant roles this season.

Recent Form Comparison:

• Kentucky has lost four of its last eight games, as the team struggles to find consistency amidst their injury woes.

• Tennessee comes into this game after nearly upsetting top-ranked Auburn, falling by just two points. This result highlights the Volunteers' ability to compete at a high level against elite opponents.

Tennessee’s Defensive Prowess:

• The Volunteers rank 6th nationally in defensive efficiency (KenPom), giving them a clear edge against a depleted Kentucky roster.

• Tennessee is particularly dominant at home, where their defensive intensity tends to overwhelm visiting teams.

Coaching Momentum:

• Tennessee’s Rick Barnes has out-coached struggling Kentucky under Mark Pope, whose early season success has faded, with his candidacy for coach of the year now in jeopardy.

Expert Call:

This is a tough spot for Kentucky, facing a physical and disciplined Tennessee squad on the road. The Wildcats' reliance on younger, less experienced players due to injuries is a key disadvantage. Tennessee’s elite defense and strong home-court advantage make them the play here.

Projection:

• Final Score: Tennessee 74, Kentucky 62

NCAAB: Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) at St. Louis

Pick: Under 142.5 / Wager: 4%

Betting Indicators Supporting This Pick:

SLU’s Under Trend:

• St. Louis has hit the under in 9 straight games and 12 of its last 13 matchups.

• The Billikens are 15-2 to the under since mid-November, consistently slowing the pace and playing lower-scoring contests.

St. Louis’ Offensive Struggles:

• SLU has failed to score more than 63 points in its last four games, adjusting to a slower pace to accommodate 6-10 center Robbie Avila.

• Guard Isaiah Swope (16.7 ppg) has hit a cold streak, shooting just 9 of 36 from the field in the past three games.

VCU’s Defensive Dominance:

• VCU is riding a six-game win streak, holding opponents to 69 points or fewer in each of those victories.

• The Rams rank in the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency (KenPom), making scoring difficult for opponents, especially in conference play.

Pace and Style of Play:

• Both teams lean on their defenses, with St. Louis focusing on half-court sets and VCU applying high-pressure defense to force turnovers.

• Neither team is likely to push the tempo, aligning with recent under trends.

Expert Call:

This matchup features two teams that prioritize defense and are comfortable playing at a slower pace. With St. Louis’ offensive struggles and VCU’s defensive consistency, this total feels inflated. The under is supported by strong trends and the current form of both teams.

Projection:

• Final Score: VCU 68, St. Louis 62

NCAAB: Marquette at Butler

Pick: Marquette -7.5 / Wager: 3%

Betting Indicators Supporting This Pick:

Marquette’s Offensive Firepower:

• Marquette ranks in the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency (KenPom), capable of running and scoring with any team in the country.

• The Golden Eagles have one of the nation’s best players, Tyler Kolek, leading their high-paced and dynamic offense.

Butler’s ATS Struggles:

• The Bulldogs have covered just 5 of their last 13 games, consistently falling short against tougher competition.

• At home, Butler is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games, showing difficulty in defending its home court.

Margin of Losses for Butler:

• Butler has lost by 8+ points in 6 of its last 12 games, including several against Big East opponents.

Recent Head-to-Head Performance:

• Marquette beat Butler by 10 points on the road last season, showcasing its ability to handle the Bulldogs in Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Expert Call:

Marquette’s ability to push the pace and exploit Butler’s defensive lapses makes them the right side here. While covering has been inconsistent for the Golden Eagles, their recent form and the Bulldogs' ongoing struggles at home provide value at this number.

Projection:

• Final Score: Marquette 79, Butler 69

NCAAB: Fresno State at Wyoming

Pick: Wyoming -7.5 / Wager: 3%

Betting Indicators Supporting This Pick:

Wyoming’s Strong ATS Record as Favorites:

• The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS this season when favored, consistently covering in games where they hold an edge.

• Wyoming has navigated a tough Mountain West schedule, competing well against the top teams in the conference.

Three-Point Shooting Advantage:

• Wyoming leads the Mountain West in three-point shooting percentage, a key weapon against Fresno State’s bottom-half three-point defense in conference play.

Fresno State’s Defensive Issues:

• The Bulldogs rank as the worst defensive team in the Mountain West, allowing opponents to capitalize both inside and beyond the arc.

• Fresno has already suffered five losses by 10+ points in conference play, struggling to keep games competitive on the road.

Head-to-Head Dominance:

• Wyoming has blown out Fresno in two of their last three regular-season meetings, showing their ability to capitalize on favorable matchups.

Fresno State’s Road Struggles:

• Fresno ranks last in the Mountain West in scoring margin (-12.6) on the road, indicating a consistent inability to stay competitive in away games.

Expert Call:

Wyoming’s shooting efficiency and Fresno State’s defensive struggles provide a clear edge for the Cowboys. With home court advantage and a strong ATS record as favorites, Wyoming is in a good position to cover this spread.

Projection:

• Final Score: Wyoming 78, Fresno State 65

• Analysis Summary: Wyoming’s offensive strengths, particularly from three-point range, combined with Fresno’s porous defense and poor road form, set up the Cowboys for a comfortable win.

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers

Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 27.5 Points / Wager: 2%

Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 7.5 Assists / Wager: 2%

Betting Indicators Supporting These Picks:

Scoring Surge for Maxey:

• Maxey has been on a tear, scoring 29+ points in 8 of his last 10 games, with the only misses being 28 points each.

• With Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Caleb Martin ruled out, Maxey will have ample shot opportunities to lead the offense.

• The Lakers are on the second night of a back-to-back and have the ninth-worst defensive rating in the league, potentially allowing Maxey to shine as a scorer.

Assist Line Too High for Maxey:

• This 7.5 assist line exceeds his season average of 6.0 assists per game, with or without Embiid in the lineup.

• Without Embiid, Maxey averages 5.8 assists per game, further highlighting the inflated line.

• The depleted 76ers lineup and potential blowout risk could lead to limited assist opportunities, especially if Maxey focuses on scoring.

• The Lakers’ perimeter defense struggles more against scoring guards than against ball distributors.

Expert Call:

Maxey’s scoring opportunities increase significantly without Embiid, making the over 27.5 points a strong play. However, the assist line of 7.5 is inflated, creating value on the under in this matchup.

Projection:

• Points: 31

• Assists: 5

• Final Score: Sixers 120, Lakers 112