August Off to a Strong Start with BrownBagBets: Let’s Keep Winning!

August is off to a fantastic start! Last night, we went 3-1 despite the short list of games, giving us a strong boost as we dive into the new month. We finished July with an impressive 166% of our starting bankroll, and we're excited to carry that momentum forward.

Why BrownBagBets is Different

At BrownBagBets, our approach to sports betting is designed for long-term success and sustainability. We aim to create passive income by managing our bankroll intelligently throughout the entire month. Our strategy isn't just about picking winners; it's about adjusting wager amounts based on confidence levels and current bankroll status. This meticulous method allows us to achieve consistent growth, even when our win rate aligns with industry standards.

Professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage above 56%, often hovering between 53-54%. The break-even winning percentage is typically 52.4%, assuming -110 odds. For the month of July, we hit a 52% win rate. How did we grow to 166% of our starting bankroll? Through our tried and true bankroll intelligence approach.

We believe in transparency and sharing our indicators openly for each pick. The secret sauce is adjusting the wager guidance based on the confidence of the pick and relative to the current total bankroll. This approach works, as evidenced by our year-to-date success.

In July, we made 172 total bets. If you wagered $100 on each of those bets and received 10 loyalty credits per bet from your betting service, you gained 1,720 tier credits in one month, worth around $170 of bonus cash! Following BrownBagBets' approach, your net total return on investment for July would be 175% of your starting bankroll.

Today's Slate

Tonight, we have a jam-packed MLB schedule with 15 games to mine through. We’re excited to bring you the best picks and wager guidance to continue our winning streak.

Special Message

At BrownBagBets, we stand by the belief that professional handicappers aren’t born, they’re made through discipline, study, and a relentless pursuit of value within the odds. We’re here to refine the art of sports betting together with our community. Winning the day matters, but winning the month and the year is what truly defines our success.

Thank you for your continued support and trust in our process. Let’s keep the momentum going and make August another winning month!

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Pitching Matchup

The matchup between the Royals and the Tigers features two excellent pitchers: Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Cole Ragans for the Royals. Both pitchers have shown the ability to dominate opposing lineups, making this game an intriguing battle on the mound.

Tarik Skubal’s Impact

Tarik Skubal has been a bright spot for the Tigers, consistently delivering strong performances. His ability to limit runs and strike out batters has been impressive, but he faces a significant challenge given the Tigers' offensive struggles against left-handed pitching. The Tigers rank 25th in MLB in team wOBA against lefties, highlighting their difficulty in producing runs against southpaws like Skubal.

Cole Ragans’ Edge

Cole Ragans has also been impressive for the Royals, providing them with a reliable option on the mound. His performances have given the Royals a chance to win in many of his starts, and the simulations suggest that Kansas City has a slight edge in this matchup. With a 54 percent chance of winning, the implied moneyline price for the Royals should be around -116, making the current even money line an attractive value.

Tigers’ Offensive Struggles

One of the key factors in favor of the Royals is the Tigers' lackluster offense. Detroit has struggled to produce runs consistently, particularly against left-handed pitching. This weakness is likely to be a critical factor in the game, as they face a formidable lefty in Ragans. The Tigers’ inability to generate offense could be their downfall in this matchup.

Betting Confidence

Given the simulations and the current even money line, betting on the Royals offers value. The Tigers’ offensive struggles against left-handed pitchers like Ragans, combined with the Royals’ slight edge in simulations, make Kansas City a smart play in this game. The Royals have a solid chance to come out on top in what promises to be a tightly contested game.

Bet: Royals ML @ +100 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Blue Jays’ Struggles and Team Dynamics

The Toronto Blue Jays are not in a strong position as they face the Yankees, seemingly distracted and underperforming. With the season’s progression, they appear to be focusing on the future rather than the present, opting to play younger, less experienced players, especially on the road. This shift in focus and strategy often results in inconsistent performances and a lack of competitive edge, making them a prime target for strategic betting.

Yankees’ Recent Form

The Yankees are currently on a hot streak, having recently completed an impressive sweep in Philadelphia. Although having a day off on Thursday might have disrupted their momentum slightly, it also allowed them to rest and reset their bullpen, ensuring they are well-prepared for the upcoming games. As a feast or famine team, the Yankees are in a position to feast against a struggling Toronto squad. Their lineup has been particularly potent, and they have shown resilience and capability to dominate games.

Pitching Matchup

Marcus Stroman has been a concern for the Yankees lately, but they have a significant advantage against Toronto’s starter, Kevin Gausman. Gausman has struggled immensely against the Yankees this season, posting a 10.97 ERA in three starts. The Yankees’ hitters have found success against him, with top performers like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton boasting impressive stats. Judge has a .297 average with a 1.205 OPS in 37 at-bats, Soto a .538 average with a 1.596 OPS in 13 at-bats, and Stanton a .368 average with a 1.166 OPS in 19 at-bats.

Game Dynamics and Bet Rationale

The Yankees’ combined OPS against Gausman is .815 in 143 career at-bats, indicating a strong likelihood of success at the plate. Additionally, Gausman is coming off a high-pitch game, having thrown 118 pitches against Texas, which could impact his performance. The Blue Jays’ weakened lineup, due to trades and injuries, further tilts the balance in favor of the Yankees.

Given the Yankees’ current form, the Blue Jays’ distractions and strategic shifts, and the favorable pitching matchup, the Yankees are well-positioned to secure a win. This analysis supports a bet on the Yankees, leveraging their current momentum and the Blue Jays’ vulnerabilities.

Bet: Yankees ML / Wager: 4%

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds

Giants’ Recent Performance and Road Struggles

The San Francisco Giants recently found some success at home against the Rockies and A’s, but it’s important not to get carried away by these results. Historically, the Giants perform their best work at home. However, they have consistently struggled to score runs even against weaker pitching staffs. This is compounded by a pitching crunch and their abysmal performance on the road. They have lost 7 of their last 9 away games and currently stand at a disappointing 21-33 in road games this season. Their performance against left-handed pitchers is also subpar, with a 13-21 record against southpaws.

Cincinnati Reds’ Stability and Home Advantage

The Cincinnati Reds, on the other hand, have shown more stability, particularly at home. They have a strong record of winning 7 of their last 10 home games. Despite being on the road frequently, the Reds have managed to maintain a solid performance when playing in Cincinnati. The home advantage, combined with the Giants’ struggles on the road, gives the Reds a significant edge in this matchup.

Pitching Matchup

Andrew Abbott has been a beacon of steadiness for the Reds, boasting a respectable 3.38 ERA. His consistent performance on the mound has provided the Reds with a reliable option, further strengthening their chances in this game. The Giants’ pitching situation, meanwhile, is in a crunch, which might leave them vulnerable against a team that knows how to leverage home-field advantage.

Game Dynamics and Bet Rationale

Considering the Giants’ difficulties on the road, their struggles against left-handed pitchers, and the Reds’ home-field advantage with Andrew Abbott’s steady pitching, the Reds appear to be in a favorable position to win this game. The Giants’ recent success at home doesn’t overshadow their broader struggles, particularly in away games.

Bet: Reds ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Marlins’ Downward Spiral

The Miami Marlins are essentially playing out the string at this point, with their primary goal being to avoid the ignominy of a 100-loss season. However, this is a tall order after their significant sell-off at the trade deadline. The Marlins are clearly in a rebuilding phase, and the performance on the field reflects that. Regardless of which pitcher Skip Schumaker chooses to start tonight, the Marlins are at a disadvantage.

Braves’ Momentum and Motivation

The Atlanta Braves, on the other hand, are showing signs of life with wins in five of their last six games. They comfortably took the opener of this four-game weekend series last night and are gaining ground on the Phillies in the NL East. This renewed sense of urgency and momentum is critical as the Braves look to solidify their playoff position.

Pitching Advantage

Spencer Schwellenbach has emerged as a key asset for the Braves. Coming off his best performance of the season, where he delivered seven shutout innings and allowed only two hits in a 4-0 win over the Mets, Schwellenbach is riding high on confidence. His recent form bodes well for the Braves, especially against a weakened Marlins lineup.

Game Dynamics and Bet Rationale

Given the Marlins’ struggles and lack of competitive motivation post-trade deadline, combined with the Braves’ recent surge and superior pitching matchup, Atlanta is poised for another strong performance. The Braves’ desire to chase down the Phillies in the NL East adds an extra layer of urgency to their play.

Bet: Braves -1.5 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Series Dominance

The Minnesota Twins have dominated the Chicago White Sox this season, going 9-1 against them. This lopsided record includes six wins by multiple runs and a run differential of +18. The Twins’ ability to consistently outperform the White Sox speaks volumes about the disparity between these two teams.

White Sox Struggles

The White Sox are in the midst of a severe slump, having lost 17 games in a row. Their roster is depleted, morale is at an all-time low, and their bullpen is among the worst in the league. The team is running out a spot starter with a career ERA of 4.77, indicating a lack of depth and quality in their pitching staff. The White Sox are essentially a team in disarray, struggling to find any form of consistency or competitive edge.

Twins’ Stability

While the Twins haven’t been playing their best baseball recently, the sheer ineptitude of the White Sox makes this matchup heavily tilted in Minnesota’s favor. Joe Ryan, Minnesota’s starting pitcher, has been a reliable presence on the mound, unbeaten in five career starts against the White Sox. His familiarity and success against Chicago further bolster the Twins’ chances of securing a decisive victory.

Betting Confidence

Given the White Sox’s prolonged losing streak and the Twins’ historical success against them, this game presents a clear opportunity for Minnesota to continue their dominance. The Twins have owned this matchup, even when the White Sox were a more competitive team a couple of years ago. The overwhelming disparity between the two teams makes this a highly confident bet for Friday.

Bet: Twins -1.5 / Wager: 4%

MLB: New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels

Recent Form and Motivation

The New York Mets had a day off on Thursday, giving them a much-needed break as they continue their push for a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels experienced a bullpen meltdown against the Rockies, further compounding their woes in a challenging season. The Angels are dealing with the absence of Mike Trout, adding to their struggles and making them vulnerable.

Angels' Franchise Turmoil

The Angels are in disarray as a franchise, possibly even more so than the White Sox. While Chicago at least boasts a stellar farm system, the Angels have fewer redeeming aspects to fall back on. Owner Arte Moreno's decisions have been widely criticized, mirroring the dysfunction seen under Jerry Reinsdorf with the White Sox. This off-field turmoil often translates to inconsistent on-field performances.

Pitching Matchup: Paul Blackburn’s Mets Debut

Paul Blackburn is set to make his debut for the Mets on the mound. In his previous outing against the Angels, he delivered a mediocre performance. However, with the Mets fully motivated and aiming for a Wild Card spot, Blackburn will have strong support from a rested bullpen ready to back him up. This motivation is crucial as every game counts for the Mets in their playoff chase.

Angels' Bullpen Struggles

The Angels' bullpen imploded in their last game, a recurring issue this season. These late-game collapses have cost them several wins and could be a significant factor in this matchup. The Mets, with their fully ready bullpen, are in a better position to secure a victory, especially if the game is close in the later innings.

Fan Support and Atmosphere

Interestingly, the Mets might enjoy more support from the crowd than the home team. With the Angels' fans frustrated by their team's performance and a large contingent of Mets fans likely in attendance, the atmosphere could play in favor of the visiting team. This added support could provide the Mets with the boost they need to secure a crucial win.

Conclusion

Given the Angels' struggles, the Mets' motivation, and the pitching matchup, New York appears to have the upper hand in this game. The combination of a well-rested bullpen and the Angels' recent bullpen issues makes the Mets a strong pick to win this matchup.

Bet: Mets ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics

Dodgers’ Recent Struggles

The Los Angeles Dodgers have appeared listless lately, raising concerns about their pitching staff. Despite acquiring Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline, questions remain, especially after Clayton Kershaw’s recent struggles on Wednesday in San Diego. The Dodgers’ inconsistent performance has made them vulnerable, providing an opportunity for opponents to capitalize.

Oakland’s Fearless Performance

The Oakland Athletics have shown a fearless approach recently, demonstrating resilience and tenacity. They haven’t lost a series since a week before the All-Star break, indicating a strong and consistent performance. This resurgence can be attributed to their improved pitching and timely hitting.

Joey Estes’ Strong Form

Joey Estes has been a key factor in Oakland’s recent success. Excluding two notable exceptions since late May, Estes has recorded a stellar 2.11 ERA in his other nine starts. His ability to keep the opposition in check has been instrumental in the Athletics’ recent series wins. Estes’ consistent performance on the mound provides a solid foundation for Oakland’s chances against the Dodgers.

Gavin Stone’s Wobbles

In contrast, Dodgers rookie Gavin Stone has shown signs of vulnerability, posting a 6.27 ERA in his last four starts. Stone’s struggles in the rotation have contributed to the Dodgers’ recent woes, making them less formidable than usual. Oakland’s lineup can exploit these inconsistencies to gain an advantage.

Conclusion

With the Dodgers showing signs of fatigue and uncertainty, and the Athletics riding a wave of confidence, Oakland appears well-positioned to secure a win. Joey Estes’ recent form and the Dodgers’ pitching challenges make the Athletics a strong pick on the money line.

Bet: A’s ML @ +130 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

Phillies’ Slump and Tyler Phillips’ Strong Road Performance

The Philadelphia Phillies are currently struggling, having lost four straight games. A significant factor in their slump has been Bryce Harper’s recent struggles at the plate. However, Phillies rookie Tyler Phillips has been a bright spot, particularly on the road. In his two road starts, Phillips has allowed just one run in 10 innings, showcasing his ability to keep opposing teams’ offenses in check. His recent form includes impressive shutout wins against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, where he hasn’t allowed a run in 15 innings pitched.

Mariners’ Struggles Against Right-Handed Pitching

The Seattle Mariners have had significant difficulties hitting right-handed pitching at home, managing a league-worst .182 batting average with a .574 OPS. This offensive struggle is a key reason for their low run production at T-Mobile Park. Despite showing some offensive life on their recent road trip, the Mariners have only scored 11 runs in their last six home games, indicating ongoing challenges in generating offense.

Bryan Woo’s Home Excellence

Bryan Woo has been exceptional at home for the Mariners, boasting a 1.27 ERA. His performance at T-Mobile Park provides a formidable challenge for the Phillies, who are hitting just .235 over the last seven days. Woo’s ability to limit opposing offenses at home makes it likely that the Phillies will continue to struggle to put runs on the board in this series opener.

Trend of Low-Scoring Mariners Home Series Openers

Historically, the first game of Mariners home series has trended towards low-scoring affairs. The total has gone under in seven straight series openers at T-Mobile Park. This trend, combined with the current form of both starting pitchers and the offensive struggles of both teams, points towards another low-scoring game.

Conclusion

Given the Phillies’ recent slump, Bryce Harper’s struggles, Tyler Phillips’ strong road performance, the Mariners’ difficulties against right-handed pitching, and Bryan Woo’s home excellence, this game is poised to be a low-scoring affair. The historical trend of low-scoring Mariners home series openers further supports this prediction.

Bet: Under 8 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Hot Streak and Bullpen Advantage

The San Diego Padres are currently the hottest team in MLB, boasting a winning streak that underscores their dominance. One of their key strengths lies in their bullpen, arguably the best in the league. This bullpen can effectively shut down opposing lineups, providing a significant advantage, especially in close games. The Padres also excel at putting the ball in play, which keeps constant pressure on their opponents.

Rockies' Struggles with Gomber on the Mound

While Austin Gomber had success against the Padres earlier in the season, his recent form has been far from impressive. Over his last 10 starts, Gomber has posted a 7.15 ERA, allowing 69 hits in just 50 innings. This trend indicates a lot of loud contact against him, suggesting that the Padres, with their potent lineup, are likely to capitalize on his struggles. The Rockies have an 8-12 record when Gomber starts, with 10 of those losses coming by two or more runs.

Matchup Details and Offensive Performance

The Padres are performing well against left-handed pitchers, maintaining a record above .500 in such matchups. This bodes well against Gomber, who is vulnerable to teams that make consistent, strong contact. San Diego's lineup is built to exploit these weaknesses, and their current form suggests they are well-positioned to do so.

Pitching Strategy for San Diego

Randy Vazquez will start for the Padres, and while he may not be the most reliable starter, the strength of the Padres' bullpen means they can turn to their relievers early if needed. This flexibility allows the Padres to manage the game effectively and maintain their advantage even if Vazquez faces challenges.

Conclusion

The Padres' current hot streak, combined with their bullpen strength and offensive capabilities, makes them a formidable opponent for the struggling Rockies. Given Gomber's recent form and the Padres' ability to put the ball in play, San Diego is well-positioned to secure a win by multiple runs.

Bet: Padres -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 3%